NBA Playoff Review 2012

Eastern Conference

Bulls vs 76'ers
Okay I think the pro Derrick Rose crowd, as opposed to the 'pro bench' crowd, kind of won that argument.  Just sayin'.  I wasn't extremely surprised to see Rose go down, an explosive/injury prone superstar + the intensity of the playoffs + a compressed season will tend to = injury.  If I had known beforehand D-Rose would be injured for basically all of the series, I would have picked the Bulls in 7.  So while I'm not stunned to see the Bulls lose (in a 1 vs 8 matchup) I am slightly surprised to see them lose in 5 games.  Not that a lot of people saw Philly winning this, but still, F+.

Miami vs New York.

I would say I predicted this series pretty much exactly right.  The Heat don't exactly have a killer instinct and when you combine that with LeBron playing his old buddy Carmelo, I didn't really expect them to sweep the Knicks.  So Carmelo did more or less get his lone buzzer beater playoff win.  A+

Indiana vs Orlando

Well I think the most competitive Eastern Conference series should now go to Atlanta-Boston.  So other than that fail, I think I was fairly accurate.  After taking Orlando a little to lightly in the first game, the Pacers cruised to the easy 5 game series win.  B+

Boston vs Atlanta

As I basically said before, if Atlanta had faced anyone other than Miami and Boston, I think they would have won, but they happened to play Boston.   A

While they lost to the Celtics, I was impressed by Philly's play.

4 Boston vs 8 Philly
Well so much for it being Bulls vs Celtics.  If I had known this would be the matchup I would've taken Boston in 6.  Since, as they kind of proved once again, they like to play up or down to the level of their opponents.  Not having the Bulls win this round knocked this down to a minimum of a C-, so D.

2 Miami vs 3 Indiana
Well, I would say I pretty much pegged this series exactly.  However, one misstep was that I thought Miami would take the first two at home, then the Pacers would take two at home, and then Miami would finish the remaining two games.  A

For the first two rounds of this side of the bracket I'll give myself a B+.

Western Conference

Spurs vs Jazz

While I am hoping it will end against OKC, so far the Spurs 'deep bench' hasn't in the least been a negative for them.  And, oddly enough, there series didn't end up being the only first round sweep.  Idk if there was a lot to predict here, but A.

OKC vs Dallas

This happened to be the other sweep.  While the Mavs easily could have stolen the first two games from OKC, they could not manage to stop Oklahoma from driving to the hoop early and often D+.

Los Angeles vs Denver

I would say Kobe partially played with his teammates in both series.  I thought it was somewhat laughable that Coach Mike Brown might have been on the hot seat if LAL lost game 7.  Even though I predicted the series wrong, I'm going to be lenient and give myself credit for having the guts to pick this upset (which really should have come through). C

Memphis vs LAC 

CP3 certainly dominated this series.  And while he did kind of stink it up against the Spurs, hopefully now there can be some agreement that he is the best PG in the league.  I technically think that Memphis is still the better team, and if they were to play another series next week I would still pick them.  But, it looks like this should have been my upset pick..  So it was actually the Clippers in an entertaining 7, F.

Even Griffin's force powers couldn't slow down the Spurs.

1 SA   5 Clippers

The Spurs haven't lost since early/mid April. Nothing to see here. Spurs steamrolled again. If I had known beforehand that they would be facing the Clipps, I would have taken SA in 5.  C-

2 OKC  3 LA Lakers

Maybe it was just me, but I didn't think it took a rocket scientist to decide (especially in game 4) to put Kevin Durant on Kobe.  But for some reason he didn't really start guarding him until there was about 6 or so minutes left and the Thunder were down 8 or so.  And while not all of Kobe's shots in the 4th quarter were taken with Durant guarding him, oddly enough in the 4th quarter Kobe shot 2-8, and the Thunder rallied to win on a go ahead basket from KD.
And. as a side note, while I'm being a little presumptuous and jumping the gun, I think KD can be given the 'title'--best closer in the game.  So far he has 3 go ahead baskets in this years playoffs.
The only two teams I thought before the playoffs that could beat the Thunder also happen to be two  of the '4' remaining teams in the Spurs and Heat.  And if the Thunder continue their winning ways, then they should end up playing both of them.  But anyways, back to this round..  If I had known LA would advance, I still would have picked Thunder in 6.  Again OKC played with fire in the second game, but they came through unscathed again. Not having the Lakers reach this game brings me down to a C+

I didn't call anything really special, and I had the wrong upset pick, so C-.

NBA Review and Playoff Predictions 2012

Milwaukee - Left just on the outside in the East, Jennings and company played slightly above their talent level.

Detroit - They showed occasional flashes of talent and improved a fair amount.

New Jersey - They were probably the most disappointing team to me in the East.  I'll give them a slight break since they did kind of catch the injury bug, but still, they did finish very poorly.

Toronto - They play in Canada...  Yep.  So shout out to the Canadians, and seriously a good job by Bargnani.

Cleveland - I actually like the pieces the Cavs have put together, they could be a .500 team next season.

Washington - They underachieved, but showed promise near the end.

Charlotte - A record in futility, I understand that MJ and the Bobcats were tanking...  But come on, 0.106?

Phoenix – I don’t really expect to see Steve Nash in a Suns uni again.  I thought he really lifted Phoenix from a cellar level team to a playoff caliber team.

Houston – It looked like they would be the eighth seed for quite a while, but a late season disintegration left them on the outside looking in.  I ‘stat-ed’ one of their games and they were doing a great job of getting quality looks (though it was against Sacramento so that was probably why, lol).  And their free throw form was excellent.  Overall, I think Houston actually overachieved.

Portland – A very disappointing team, Aldridge was injured for some time, but on a whole they just underachieved.

Minnesota – Rubio and Ridnour added some spark to the team, but Rubio got injured midway through the season and Ridnour was injured late and the Twolves fizzled.  K Love was absolutely sick throughout the season.  While it’s harder to make the playoffs in the West then it is in the East I think they’ll have a decent chance to make a little bit of noise next season.

Golden State – Stephen Curry and the gang didn’t really do much.

Sacramento – I also looked at one of their games and…. It disappointed to say the least.  They appear to be a fairly talented team, but lacking discipline.  If they would just do some of the basics better, like taking care of the ball and shooting closer to 80% from the line.  Then they could be an interesting team next season.

New Orleans – I thought NO and GS were the teams I was most disappointed in for the WC.  But to give the Hornets a bit of a break, they suffered the worst injury bug in the league this season.  I was looking forward to seeing Eric Gordon in a bit of a starring role, but he was one of the many Hornets players that suffered a long injury.  While they only finished with 21 wins, I think that Coach Monty Williams did a very good job with the players he was given. 

1 Chicago  4 Boston

This should be a fairly epic series.  Especially if it’s like their playoff series a few years ago.

As soon as I start to lean towards one team, I think of the other team’s strengths and lean towards them.  So I guess I’ll say they tie and both advance in 7.  Lol, but since that can’t happen, I take the Bulls in a very competitive and close 7.

2 Miami  3 Indiana

Against Chicago or Boston I would be very tempted to (and probably end up picking) Indiana to the EC finals, but we’re talking Miami here.  Miami in 6.  I’m giving a lot of credit to Indiana, but it might be too much credit considering Miami only took 5 games to beat Chicago last year.

1 SA   4 Memphis

San Antonio faces their nemesis from last year, but this time they’re running on all cylinders.  Spurs get the best of the Grizzlies in a spirited 7 games.

2 OKC – 6 Denver

Another rematch from last year.  And this year it is a little more competitive, but the Thunder are still clearly the better team.  Thunder in 6.

1 Chicago – 2 Miami

LeBron and the Heat advance to the Finals again.

Take two plays similarly to last years series.  After game 5 in Chicago, Lebron is criticized for passing to an open Chris Bosh at the end of the game (who clanks a long two) and the next game LeBron responds by taking and hitting a shot to win both the game and the series.  Miami in 6.

2 OKC – 1 SA

The Old vs The Young.  KD hits a game winner, Westbrook takes advantage of Parker’s age, and Oky City escapes with a series win in 6. (If I was more impartial I would probably predict a 7 game series, but I don’t want to have to be on the road against SA in a must win game 7)

2 OKC vs 2 Miami

I apologize for picking so many favorites.  I don’t really know when the last time was that I picked so many favorites in any sport.  I know it’s not the most inventive pick, picking OKC and Miami.  But, I was sort of ahead of the curve in that I predicted OKC – Miami before it was popular, both last season and also as a preseason prediction for this season.

If the Heat haven’t exhausted themselves by now, and Lebron is staying involved (but isn’t trying to be the killer closer), then the Heat will be nearly impossible to beat.  But, I think that Miami’s PG situation will again be their downfall. 

(Assuming they haven’t changed it)  Instead of the 2-3-2 format.  I wish the NBA would just do the normal 2-2-1-1-1 format that they use for the rest of the playoffs.  It’s hard to see Miami not taking one of the first 2 games in OKC.  And if they do that then all they have to do is take care of business at home. 

For OKC to beat the Heat, the non
 'superstars' will have to come up huge.

So from OKC’s perspective..  Win the first game by 4, lose the second by 5 in OT, win the third by 2 on a buzzer beat from KD, lose the fourth and fifth thanks to triple doubles from Lebron, win the 6^th by 5, and the Championship deciding 7^th  game they manage to win by 4.  Kevin Durant has some amazing performances throughout, so that the Thunder can barely manage a 7 game series win.  A little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, sure.  But, until I’m again proven wrong, I think that’s what’s going to happen.

So the Oklahoma City Thunder are the NBA champions, or World Champions if you prefer that.   

Western Conference Playoff Preview 2012

I did actually write this all the day of the playoffs, I'm just getting around to editing and posting it now.  

1 San Antonio  8 Utah

Many people have written off the Spurs just because of last year and maybe I will be wrong and they will flame out insanely early again.  But, Tony Parker is having maybe his best season as a pro, Ginobli is doing his thing, Duncan is still being good, and the bench has been extremely good.  It has been said that, ‘a deep bench won’t matter in the playoffs.’  Why not?  Yes, it won’t be quite as important as the regular season, but I still think they will use their bench fairly heavily in the playoffs.  This is not the Spurs of a couple years.  Their forte is no longer defense.  It’s actually now more of a run and gun offense.  So they will need their bench.

I think it’s fairly impressive that Utah made the playoffs in front of Phoenix and Houston.  A young improving team.  They’re 4^th in the league in scoring and they have been great at home as usual.

Sorry, for the lack of love for the Jazz, but in my lone sweep of the playoffs I have the Spurs in 4.

2 Oklahoma City  7 Dallas

The Thunder happen to be my favorite team.  And, by complete coincidence, they also happen to have (probably) my favorite NBA player, Kevin Durant.  I think it’s awesome that after nearly every point he scores, he’ll point to heaven, or really the roof since it kind of gets in the way, Durant points to heaven, or in another words God to give Him the glory.  In post game interviews and press conferences, he tends to be fairly liberal in his praising of Christ/God.  Doing it at most opportunities.  He’s not quite as out spoken on Christianity as Tebow is, but it is still quite obvious that he is a Christian.  If I were to ever be blessed with a situation vaguely similar to Tebow or Durant I would probably lean towards Durant’s approach.  Another aside, but I also think it’s cool that he still wears a backpack to most, or possibly all, of his press conferences.  

This is a nice opening 2 vs 7 game.  Instead of an easy New York type team, OKC gets the defending champions.  I personally would prefer that the Thunder would be facing any other Western team not named San Antonio.  I haven’t analyzed many NBA games this year (not that I have in the past either), but one of them that I have analyzed was the end of season LA vs OKC game.  And it was definitely a great game with plenty of drama and, uh, flying elbows..  Most of my analyzing tends to be fairly simple and straightforward (though it can be a bit subjective).  Kind of a like a simplified and subjective synergy.  I was grading the players shot attempts as quality or non-quality.  And one game is technically a ridiculously small sample size, but anyways here is my analysis.

Ibaka has really improved his offense from last year, and that could possibly be the difference for OKC in the playoffs this year.  Durant and Westbrook were both very much off their games (a combined 10-45), but while Durant was attempting quality shots, 16 quality and 9 non quality, Westbrook was heavily favoring the non quality shots, 4 quality and 13 non quality.  [To account for the discrepancy of shots..  I missed a small part of the 3^rd quarter, and I also don’t chart certain shots]  So it’s an extremely small sample size, I know, but KD’s quality shots were a poor 31% and his nq shots were 11%.  While Westbrook was 50% on q (2 out of 4), and a sizzling 0% on nq (Zero for thirteen). 

Part of the Thunder’s game is to push the pace, but if they would be a little more patient and pass up the contested 10 footer 7 seconds into the shot clock for the open 13 footer 17 seconds into the shot clock and if they would do just improve their patience in getting a quality shot, then I think they would be able to beat in 5 games or less 10 of the other 15 teams in the playoffs. 

Harden was taking about an even number of quality and non quality shots, yet hitting about the same of each.  Some of the shots that he made were extremely difficult and fairly amazing.  Even though he tends to come off the bench, he is probably at least the 3^rd most important player on the Thunder roster.  And, imho, the Thunder bench (including Harden) is probably tied for the best bench in the NBA. 

One thing I will say for Westbrook and the rest of the team is that they do an excellent job at the free throw line.  To give some perspective I’ll give the Lakers numbers first.  LAL was 22-2 (92%) on quality free throw attempts and 4-11 (27%) on NQ FTA, for a total of 67%.  While the Thunder were 19-1 (95%) on quality FTA and, amazingly enough, they did not attempt a single non quality FT.  And while this doesn’t have to do with anything here, I think that, while he won’t do a lot on the court, Derek Fisher will have a great impact on the Thunder locker room in the playoffs.

The defending champs are coming into the playoffs as underdogs.  I thought their loss of J.J. Barea was a fairly big loss.  Nowitizki is still hitting his one legged-turn around-fade away jump shot, and Terry is providing a lift off the bench.  But the Mavs are not really generating enough offense right now.

I hate to say it, but this would probably be the most likely 1 or 2 seed upset in the first round.  I’ll take OKC in 6.

3 Los Angeles 6 Denver

This might be the only pair of teams that I’m glad are playing each other.

I think that all of the Western conference series should be fairly compelling and competitive, except for SA-Utah (though it could still possibly have some close games, just not a close series).  One minute I convince myself to pick the Lakers and the next I’m thinking that the Nuggets will win. 

I didn’t take a ton from my analysis for the Lakers, partially because Kobe was taking his usual 20+ shots a game.  I think the best strategy for LAL would be if Kobe defers through 3 quarters and then tries to take over the fourth.  If they were to follow that, I think they could meet OKC in the Conf finals, but they almost certainly aren’t going to do that so I have them on upset alert. 

While his form was usually fairly bad, the person taking the highest amount of high quality shots (other than Jordan Hill) imo was Ron Artest.  But after a dunk on Durant, Artest threw an elbow at Harden.  And while I don’t think it was premeditated or anything like that I do think that the elbow thrown at Harden was definitely intentional and malicious.  I actually think that the Lakers really would not miss Artest very much if he ever leaves, but a sudden departure of any starting player, this close to playoff time is almost certainly going to have a detrimental affect on the Lakers.  

The next highest quality shots were by Sessions, and I thought he did a decent job of attacking the hoop.  Bynum and Gasol came up next with a decent 2-1 ratio of quality to non quality attempt.  But Bynum sat the fourth, and neither player was fed the ball enough. 

Last on the list was, oddly enough, Kobe Bryant.  While he took and made some very tough and impressive contested shots, unless he was tired, he really should have just tried to take Sefolosha almost every time.  On quality looks he was 50%, and on non quality looks he was 28% (5-13).  One of the best players of all time, and still the best game closer.  But, imho, he needs to defer if he wants to have a chance at a 6^th ring.

Denver has Javale Mcgee and stuff.  And on a serious note I have been a Ty Lawson fan for about two years, and I think he is probably a top 5 PG.

 So yeah, this is more of an anti LA pick then a pro Denver pick, but in the end I think that Artest’s disgraceful elbow throw will cost the Lakers the series.  Denver in 7.

4 Memphis – 5 LAC 

The Clippers have CP3, probably the best PGin the game, while Griffin has good name ID and amazing dunks he is not yet the star and all-around player that his popularity should warrant.

The Grizzlies will be looking to unleash their tenacity of last year’s playoffs.  If they succeed in doing that against LAC, it is quite possible they could take it in 5.  As it is though, I will take the Grizzlies in an entertaining 6.