NBA Finals
So this is what we get for the
NBA Finals.. Miami
– Oklahoma City. Six (or seven) All-Stars going at each
other. Two very decent head
coaches. One team assembled via the
draft, the other through free agency. One
side is widely viewed as the good, humble kids, while the other is kind of
viewed as the villains. A conservative,
classy town with nothing else in town, and a liberal town that has many other
distractions. And a three time (should
be four time reigning, if people would not be so PC) MVP going head to head with the
three time reigning scoring champion.
Russell Westbrook vs Mario
Chalmers
Westbrook for all of his faults
(and they are many), should be able to own Chalmers in this matchup just by his
pure athleticism/speed. It was amazing
how RW truly played as a PG in a couple of the games against the Spurs, and
snap, they actually won, and
convincingly at that. I mean who
knew? If Westbrook decides to play as a
pass first PG this round, then I see no way (barring something like LBJ
averaging 42, 12 and 6) that Miami
can get to a game 7, much less win the series.
And this isn't entirely to take away too much
from Westbrook’s game. If he wants to occasionally
try and beat his man, or shoot over him then that’s more than alright with
me. But it absolutely can not happen,
that he consistently takes more shots than the best shooter in the league-KD. (Someone like Steve Novak probably has a slightly purer shot when wide open, but Durant can create enough space to get his shot,
or simply shoot over his opponent)
Chalmers has definitely improved
his game and he does a fairly good job of pushing the tempo and getting
quality looks. Edge Westbrook
Let’s say Buffalo
(talking about the NFL here) was to somehow pick up Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, and Ndamukong Suh. And, if you’re following my analogy, Manning is D-Wade, Peterson is Bosh, and Lebron is Suh. So Manning/D Wade is the guy who is kind of
past his prime, but can still sometimes dominate the other team. Peterson/Bosh is the guy who puts up good
numbers, but is thought to hurt his team.
And Suh/Lebron is the guy who puts up amazing numbers, but for no reason
people hate him. (Well actually, there
is kind of a legit reason for Suh’s haters.
So I guess that’s where my analogy really falls apart.. But then, I wasn’t
trying to have that deep of an analogy anyways.)
And the Bills hire a random guy, let’s
say his name was Erik Spoelstra, and go 12-4 and win the AFC. Then they blow through the Chargers and
Steelers, before they lose to the Giants 20-13.
The team takes some, uh, ‘heat,’ but management decides not to blow up
the team or fire the coach.
The next year, they go 11-5 and
attain the 2nd seed. This
time, after blowing past the Ravens, they have some trouble with their second
opponent, nearly losing to the Steelers.
They then have to face the favored Packers and they lose 27-21. And management is like, Well forget this. That was an
unmitigated disaster. Get out the
dynamite! We’re blowing this thing to
kingdom come. So they fire Erik
Spoelstra and trade Peterson and Manning.
Just wondering here, but how insane is that??
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| Could Nash bring a Title to South Beach? |
And I know I’m comparing apples
to oranges here a bit, and that 3 basketball players should proportionately have more
of an impact than 3 football players, but come on. You get to the Super Bowl/NBA Finals two years
in a row, have two competitive series/games, and since you come out the loser both
times you call it quits?? Props
to the Heat for shooting for the stars, but would they please have a little
perspective too? Last time I checked, there
are actually 29 other teams in the league.
With that said, I would be somewhat tempted to blow up the team, and
start over with Lebron and a new cast.
But, I don’t think I’d pull the trigger.
Though, I would definitely consider trading Wade for someone this offseason. But, that would kind of be a scum move to
trade him, so I doubt I would do that. Being
in the Heat’s shoes, my main move would just be to pick up Steve Nash or see if CP3 would want to come over. I figure that basically guarantees a
championship. And maybe I am making it
sound too easy, but sometimes things just do happen to be that simple.
So anyways, my point from that analogy is that
the expectations, while somewhat based in reality, are also a bit insane. I’ll be one (though definitely not the first)
to say that I haven’t agreed with everything Coach Spoelstra has done, however
the pressure he is under is ridiculous.
And honestly, in the previous series the Heat probably could have just
run an isolation Lebron James D-Wade pick and roll and scored close to a
hundred per game. Well, I didn't end up getting to Coach Brooks, so maybe I'll do that when I review the Finals. So anyways, they're both very good coaches and if I'd have to give an edge I would probably say slight edge to Coach Brooks.
Dexter Pittman vs Nick Collison
I would say this is
unquestionably the ‘Key Matchup’ of the series.
Or at least the most marketable..
Will Pittman blindside Durant? Will Collison retaliate against Lebron? Find out tonight on ABC! Disclaimer: That was complete sarcasm,
any relation to any human past, present, or future is unintentional. Anyways though, enough silliness, on to the
real ‘Key Matchup.’
Kevin Durant vs Lebron James
If KD were put on a sub .500 team
and Lebron were put on a sub .500 team, I would say KD improves his team by
about 10 wins, while Lebron improves his team by about 15 wins. (Non lockout shortened season)
If it wouldn't be for Lebron being a little naive and having his ‘decision’ and also saying they would bring, ‘not one, not
two, (etc) championships’ to Miami. Then
I think they would have won the title last year, and would of course also be
the favorite this year too.
Lebron is putting up numbers that
no human (not named Wilt Chamberlain) has put up before. To kind of steal an analogy from ESPN Radio Host Colin Cowherd. It’s kind of like you’re
moving and you ask a friend to come over to help. After you load 53 of the 55 boxes, he finally
shows up (30 minutes late) makes a big show of putting one box on top of the
other, then loads them in the truck, and he says, ‘Yeah bro, we totally killed that!’
Is Lebron a ‘great’ clutch
player? Not really, no. But, if you have someone who can constantly
give you somewhat comfortable leads in the fourth, and you can’t close the deal? Come on.
You shouldn’t need him to be clutch, if his teammates would just step it
up.
Admittedly I don’t have
perspective on this.. But, I think that
Lebron is the best NBA player EVER. I
would take him over any other NBA player (not over 7 ft tall, since they play a
different style of basketball and they kind of won the gene lottery), even over
MJ. You
are certifiably insane. Thank you
for that. But, now I’m going to qualify
what I just said, LBJ is the best NBA player through 3 ½ quarters. In the last ½ a quarter, he’s usually just an
average player.
So not to completely insult his
teammates, but I think Lebron has really been carrying the Heat. I think Lebron will put up
‘better’ numbers then KD, because he will be forced to carry the Heat. Matchup-wise I would give the edge to KD, but
if everything is accounted for, then I think I’ll just bow out and say it’s a
push.
Ibaka vs Bosh
Other then Lebron vs KD, I would
say this is the key matchup for the series.
If Ibaka (/Perkins, etc) can lock up on Bosh, then it’s practically just
going to be a 3 on 1. One guy guarding
Bosh, another as a ‘safety’ near the hoop, while everyone else is on
Lebron. Obviously, I’m slightly
exaggerating. but seriously, if Bosh can
be shut down, then the Thunder should practically just run a triangle and two with everyone
shaded towards Lebron.
As I thought he would Ibaka has
shown an improved range and more consistency with his jumper and is now a
threat on both sides of the court.
Wade is maybe a better player
than Bosh, but Bosh is definitely more valuable/important to the Heat. In the two years so far with the ‘big three,’
in the playoffs (just the Eastern Conference) the Heat are 19-5 with Bosh (and
3 of those losses were complete toss up games), and 5-4 without Bosh. In my book, that spells importance. The way he can space the floor, gives some serious openings to when Lebron and D-Wade drive to the hoop.
This is kind of another KD vs Lebron thing, I
think Ibaka or Perkins matches up well with Bosh, but I think Bosh will put up
slightly better numbers. Intermediate edge
Bosh.
Perkins vs Haslem
They both like their rebounds and
defense. No offense to Perkins, but he’s
probably my least favorite player on the Thunder. Haslem at least has an inconsistent jumper. Woo
hoo. I’m tempted to say it’s a push,
but since I don’t want to end in another push I’ll say slight edge to Haslem.
Miami
fans vs Thunder fans
Shout out to the Miami
fans… They actually showed up and made
some noise in game 7 against Boston. That is totally amazing! (And I think that my first use of an exclamation mark in
blogging, or close to my first, goes sarcastically to Miami
fans.. So double congrats to them.) Now they just need to try attending and making
noise in more than just their NBA Finals home games and one other time per
year.
Thunder fans however are
basically the antithesis of Miami
fans. They show up when the Thunder are
20-50, (‘Thunder are’ really comes smoothly off the tongue... Not that ‘the Heat are’ is a lot better, lol.) and they definitely show up for
the playoffs. And they don’t just show
up.. They create probably the best
atmosphere in the league. A very college-esque atmosphere almost rivaling the atmospheres of Duke and NC games (Not
against each other though, I imagine that NC vs Duke games are still above even
a game 7 of the NBA finals.) Imho, the
Thunder (even if they have only been in existence for four years) have the best stadium
atmosphere in the league. Definite edge
Thunder.
Turiaf vs Muhammad
They can both hit the open dunk,
and Muhammed can hit the occasional jumper.
Turiaf will probably get more playing time, but I’ll give the slight
edge to Muhammad.
Jones vs Fisher
Two random old guys who shoot
threes. And one happens to have 5 NBA
title rings. Slight edge Fisher.
Miller vs Collison
Somehow I don’t think they’ll
matchup against each other very much, but they happen to be the last two
players who are likely to get minutes. I
can kind of empathize with Miller, who has really been struggling throughout
the playoffs with his back, and he can’t seem to buy a bucket either.
Collison might be my favorite
player on the Thunder not named KD. Why?
Because he’s a scrappy white guy? Idk, maybe a little. I just like his energy, the charges he takes,
and all the extra possessions he gets the team.
While it’s kind of hard to relate
different positions, I’ll say the edge goes to Collison.
Sefolosha vs Battier
I highly doubt they’ll be
spending a large amount of time guarding each other. But, that aside.. Sefolosha has never shown a great potential
for scoring 10 pts a night, but some of that maybe, just maybe, has to do with
him playing with 4 of the best scorers in the league. (if not THE best) One of the main keys to the SA series, was Sefolosha
being switched onto Tony Parker and largely shutting him down.
Battier has struggled quite a bit
with his jumper also (though not quite as much as Miller). But, if he becomes ‘hot’ in the Finals, then
the Heat will become considerably more difficult to guard. I like both players quite a bit, slight edge to
Battier.
James Harden vs Dwayne Wade
Harden is kind of the sail for
the Thunder. As he goes, so go the
Thunder. Since Eric Maynor is hurt, I
think that Harden is the best pass first PG on the team.
I would also say he’s the best pure scorer and distributor on the team. It’s kind of insane, how he can take a
quality look or a non quality look and they’ll go in.
D-Wade isn’t going to play as
poorly as his previous series. Though,
admittedly, that isn’t saying a ton. It’s
his third Finals appearance, so he’s certainly going to show up. I think he’ll have a series better than Boston
and Indy, probably somewhat comparable to his NY series. James Harden has really become a force, and D-Wade is regressing, but I think I'll still give the nod to Wade.
In terms of my 'edges' I have OKC better than the Heat in 6 matchups, and the Heat better than the Thunder in 5 matchups and one push. I think the Thunder should really
pack it in this series, and dare Lebron and the bench to beat them from the
outside. And I would let everyone not
named Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed have a crack at defending Lebron at
some point in the series. And yes, even
Ibaka. I doubt that Lebron has had
to deal with an agile 7 footer on him very much before, so that would be a matchup worth trying,
imho. But, I would mostly just stick
with KD and Sefolosha guarding Lebron.
I don’t really see anyway in the
world that either team can sweep, and I would think 5 games would be extremely
hard for either side as well. Imho the matchups
for the Heat are somewhat terrible. Even with
that, if I had not predicted the Thunder and Heat in the Finals and had
to predict this series now, besides
Thunder in 7, I would be tempted to say Thunder in 6 or Heat in 7. But, since both teams did make it, I’m
obviously sticking with Thunder in 7.
And I’ll get to see how close (or far) my game by game predictions, made
a month and a half ago, are to reality.
