Saturday, March 23, 2013

MLB Preview 2013

AL East +15
Baltimore
I really like manager Buck Showalter and second baseman Brian Roberts, but I expect Baltimore to regress this year.  80-82

Boston
A bit of a rebuilding job in Boston. Potential is partially there, but they are also a somewhat old/veteran team.  79-83

New York
Lost a few vaguely decent pieces from last year, so a small step back. 87-75

Tampa Bay
Compared to the rest of the division Tampa Bay has a somewhat cheap payroll, but it gets more a bang for the buck.  86-76

Toronto
Getting RA Dickey should help their rotation quite a bit.  88-74

AL Central -9
Cleveland
Ubaldo and Masterson should be better this year, but Cleveland still underachieves overall.  73-89

Detroit
The defending AL champions struggle against a subpar division.  85-77

Kansas City
The Royals basically went all in this year, trading for Shields and Davis.  A playoff series for KC for the first time since 1985.  85-77

Minnesota
I'm not certain why people think they will really stink.  I expect the Twins to improve, but that it will still certainly be a building year.  73-89

White Sox
If it weren't for Sale and Peavy, then the White Sox likely wouldn't be even close to .500, but with them I expect the White Sox to be competitive.  80-82

AL West -7
Houston
The AL welcomes Houston by giving them just a few friendly stompings.  The additions of Pena and Humber should help, but it still won't keep the Astros from capturing last place.  52-110

Los Angeles
An extremely star heavy lineup, though they kind of need to improve their pitching staff. The Angels disappointed me and others last year, but I'l stick with them.  95-67

Oakland
I expect last year's surprise AL West Champs rotation to struggle in (for quite a few of them) their sophomore seasons.  85-79

Seattle
The Astros will give them enough wins to improve over last years record.  I think their lineup will actually hit vaguely decently (for Seattle) this year.  77-85

Texas
Lost a lot of hitters, but they at least picked up Berkman.  89-73

Credit to Operation Sports for my predicted standings for the MLB this season.  Apparently they haven't updated to put Houston in the AL yet, so I just put Houston below the AL West.

NL East -7
Atlanta
Upgraded their lineup a bit in the offseason.  87-75

Miami 
I bought into the Marlins last season.. And that was a big mistake.  They lost a few good players from last season, so I'll expect them to be even worse.  64-98

New York
Losing Dickey won't exactly help the Mets.  70-92

Philadelphia
Their offense should be better, and they will still be dominant at home.  86-76

Washington
Considering they had Strasburg and a few other players injured for parts of last year, the Nationals could technically be better... But I expect their record to be worse.  93-69


NL Central +2
Chicago

No 100 loss season for the Cubs this year.  70-92

Cincinnati
I think they'll be better.. But still finish with a worse record, due to less 'luck' and no Houston.  Still good enough to make the playoffs.  90-72

Milwaukee
Good at home, poor on the road, per usual.  78-84

Pittsburgh
Fair season for the Pirates.  77-85

St. Louis
Lost a couple good players, but they got Carpenter back from injury.  90-72

NL West +6
Arizona
A lot of roster movement for the Diamondbacks. 82-80

Colorado
Better year for the Rockies.  76-86

Los Angeles
I fell into the trap of picking the splashiest team last year, (the Angels), so will I fall into the same trap this year?  Ehh, yeah, kind of.  The most expensive payroll in sports gets the Dodgers the division.  94-68

San Diego
Very little movement for the Padres.  I think they will improve from last year.  75-87

San Francisco
They let go of Freddy Sanchez and a few other players.  A downgrade for the defending WS winners.  84-78

MLB Standings - Updated: Nov 1, 2013
AL EASTWLGB
Toronto Blue Jays8874
New York Yankees8775
Tampa Bay Rays8676
Baltimore Orioles8082
Boston Red Sox7983
AL CENTRALWLGB
Kansas City Royals8577
Detroit Tigers8577
Chicago White Sox8082
Cleveland Indians7389
Minnesota Twins7389
AL WESTWLGB
Los Angeles Angels9567
Texas Rangers8973
Oakland Athletics8579
Seattle Mariners7785
AL WILD CARD RACEWLGB
Houston Astros52110

Friday, March 22, 2013

NBA Northwest Division Team Breakdown 2012


 Part two of my NBA team breakdown focuses on the Northwest Division.

Oklahoma
City
Driving
Decision 
Making
Shot Selection
Shooting
Defense
Overall
Collison
D
A-
A
B+
A-
B+
Durant
B+
A-
B+  77%
A
B+
A-
Ibaka
D-
B-
A    84%
C+
B+
B-
Martin
B-
C+
B-
C+
C
C+
Perkins
D-
D+
B
C
B-
C-
Sefolosha
C+
B-
B-
C+
B+
B-
Westbrook
A
C+
C-  60%
C
B-
B-
Oklahoma City Thunder
Westbrook-Martin-Sefolosha-Durant-Collison
My ideal lineup goes somewhat small and takes out both Ibaka and Perkins.  It outscores opponents 140 to 113 per 100 possessions, the sixth most used lineup for the Thunder, most effective in the top 10.  Second best (behind Durant) +- on the Thunder?  Collison.  On court best +-.
Glad to see when my opinions are verified, However it's a small sample size for this lineup at 76.9 minutes so it doesn’t actually verify me.
Sefolosha has the second best +- per 48.
The PG for the Thunder shoots eFG of .456 which is a minimum of .101 (!) lower than the next lowest position on the Thunder.  
KD underrated a bit defensively.
The PER of the SF (Mostly KD obviously) is an absolutely dominating 11.1, the next best, at +6.1, is put up surprisingly enough by the PG posisition.  
Sidenote..  I think PER is a relatively decent basic basline, but I do think that it overvalues (a little bit) players who handle the ball more (see that as hog).
Some websites like Wages of Wins really dislike it, and while I mostly agree with their points I still think it gives you some bonus data.  And when that data is combined with lots of other data, and the eye test, etc, then you can come up with an even more informed conclusion about a player.
Also, WoW really dislikes +-, mostly because it has such a low consistency from year to year.  Again I don't really disagree with them, but I still think that +- can be a fairly useful statistic.
Everyone else on the Thunder averages out to about a +3.  


Denver
Driving
Decision M
Shot S
Shooting
Defense
Overall
Chandler
B
C+
B+
C
A+
B
Faried
B
B+
B+
B-
B
B
Gallinari
B
B
C+
B-
C+
B-
Iguodala
B+
B+
B
B-
B+
B+
Koufos
C+
B
B
B-
A-
B
Lawson
A-
B+
B+
B
B
B+
McGee
B-
C+
B
D
B
B-

*As with most teams, my defensive charting is very low, but in my limited charting of the Nuggets 
while Koufos was a very good defender, Wilson Chandler was so good he was effectively off the charts.
Denver Nuggets
Small positives for PER’s across the board.
Each position shoots more inside shots then the person he is guarding. 
It appears that Denver is good, but not superb, across the board against good, mediocre, and bad teams. (until this last 13 game stretch when they've been superb)
3 more FTA per game then opponents.
An insanely impressive 10% more shots than opponents that are not jump shots.
43% of their shots come within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.
Koufos has effectively no net production, but has a +8 +-.
McGee performs at a very high level, 22.6, but then apparently has lapses on defense and gives up 17.7, for a net production level of 4.9.  Meanwhile his adjusted +- needs some work at -5.2.
While Lawson is positive in all the phases, I’m a little surprised to see his numbers so low.
I would disagree with this, but according to Simple Rating, Gallinari is the best player on the Nuggets.
My lineup is wholly unimaginative (partially becaue it’s just a good lineup)
Lawson, Iguodala, Gallinari, Koufos, Faried
It came in at #1 at a fairly impressive (in terms of data size) 666.9 minutes played.
Among the top 10 most used lineups it was number 4 in production. It outscores opponents 110 to 102 per 100 possessions.


Utah
Driving
Decision M
Shot S
Shooting
Defense
Overall
Burks
B-
C-
D+
C-
C-
C-
Carrol
B
B-
B+
C
C+
B-
Favors
C+
C+
B-
C
B-
C+
Hayward
C+
B
B
B-
C+
B-
Ma. Williams
C+
C-
D
D+
C-
C-
Utah Jazz
PG position is demolished, however the PF and C positions win in PER.  Utah Centers only shoot 36% of their shots in what is deemed to be close to the hoop.
Carroll provides a surprisingly high SR of 6.9.
Not very surprisingly, Mo and Marvin Williams both produce vaguely high negatives in all three categories. 
Tinsley gets absolutely dominated in production, but still manages to post a + net +-.  Basically the same thing for Burks.
I’m not positive about all the positions for players for Utah… So this lineup is a tad iffy..
Carroll, Burks, Millsap, Hayward, Jefferson (Favors) (Tinsley)
My preferred lineup did not exist, so I went with the closest thing,
Tinsley-Hayward-Carroll-Favors-Kanter.
It came in at #11 on the minute’s chart, and #1 in production when compared to the top 10.  Per 100 possessions it would theoretically score a healthy 125 and give up 100.

Portland
Driving
Decision M
Shot S
Shooting
Defense
Overall
Aldridge
B-
C
D
B-
C-
C
Batum
C-
C
D
C
C+
C-
Hickson
C
C+
B+
B-
B
B-
Lillard
B+
B-
B-
B-
C
B-
Matthews
C+
C-
D+
C+
D+
C-
Maynor
B
B-
B-
C+
C-
B-
Portland Trailblazers
About average PER’s except the PF and SG are -3.5.
2% more turnovers then opponents.  7% less inside shots as opposed to opponents.
It appears that Portland is slightly below average when facing all three types of teams, good, average, and poor.
Babbit is destroyed per PER at -13.3.
Lamely enough, I did not actually know until a couple weeks ago that Meyers Leonard was a rookie..  I thought he was a bit older than that.  Don’t get around to seeing many Trailblazer games..  Anyways, he struggled a bit -5.1 production net, and a +- net of -6.9.
Whoa.  Lillard only gives up a 14.7 defensive PER thought it would be closer to 17, net production rate of 1.3.  For a rookie he absolutely destroys his +- net at +9.0.  (Though one reason could be that Portland didn't really have a good backup PG..  Until they picked up Maynor.)
Aldridge wins his production battle 4.1, and annihilates his net +- at +9.0.  Decent SR at 5.7.
Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Hickson (Leonard)
The lineup with Hickson came in at #1 in minutes and #5 in production.  106 to 110 per 100 possessions.  So about average +- for Portland.  And the minutes for that lineup charted an intimidating 840.9 minutes.
The lineup with Leonard came in at #3 in minutes and #4th in production.  115-112 per 100 possessions.  And this lineup was used around 730 fewer minutes then the previous lineup.

Minnesota
Driving
Decision M
Shot S
Shooting
Defense
Overall
Barea
B+
B+
B+
B
C-
B
Kirilinko
C-
B-
A
B+
C+
B
Love
B
A-
B+
B+
B
B+
Pekovic
C+
B
A  ‘85%!
C-
B-
B
Ridnour
B+
B+
B+
B
C+
B
Williams
B+
C+
B+
B-
B-
B
 Minnesota Timberwolves
While my ratings tend to lean towards an average a fair amount higher than a C, and the T-Wolves have suffered a ton of injuries this year...  C'mon, Minnesota is 23-45 right now?  With a bunch of B type players, at least according to me, they should be a playoff team.
Rubio has a  surprisingly bad Simple rating and +-, Ridnour’s a little lower than expected, Williams has a bad +-.
Ignoring the obvious main injuires to the T-Wolves, (Kiri, Love, Roy, Budinger,) imo the best lineup for them is to go fairly small with..  
Rubio, Ridnour, Pekovic, Barea, and Williams
It doesn’t exist…
I’ll try putting in Cunningham for Barea for some size and move Williams to the SF
It doesn’t exist, so I give up on that.  (since there are so many injuries the lineups are fairly random)
Most of their lineups are negatives or around 0, so I’ll just give a shout out to a good, and very random lineup. Barea-Shved-Gelabale-Cunningham-Stiemsma and a +22 per 100 possessions.  Insanely small sample size for it yes, but I don’t really understand how that could be a good lineup.