NBA Finals and Coach D'antoni Wrap-up From 2012

This is a blog post about the NBA Finals and Coach D'antoni.. Only it's from 2012..  SO it's just a tad out of date.  There are bunches of little random thigns that I kind of wanted to expound upon further, but for most part I didn't actually bother to.

Lebron is in his 9^th season, but he still won his first title a year earlier than Michael Jordan.  Comparing Lebron and MJ by their respective age, when at 29, I would say that Lebron is the better player. 

If you say Larry Bird, you think Magic Johnson.  Magic and Bird are irrevocably linked.  Well I think that Lebron and Durant could get close to that level over the next few years.

Wrap-up of the playoffs 2012 (predictions)

Hopefully the Heat won't be able to
cross off the "not two" part this year.

The last three predictions that I never wrapped up from last season are as follows..  

I said OKC in 6 over SA, it took them 5.  B+

I said Miami over the Bulls in 6 over the Bulls, but the Heat actually won in 7 over the Celtics.  C- (I get a partial pass since Rose was injured)

Finally, I said OKC in 7 over the Heat, but the Heat pulled out the series in 5.  

And call me stubborn, but I still think that the Thunder were the better team last season (and this season).  And overall should have won the series around 60% of the time.  B for predicting the correct Finals teams and the team that should have won..

Overall grade for the 2012 NBA playoffs, B-.

No team from the Western Conference not named, the Lakers, Spurs, or Mavs, had won the NBA title since 1998.  And coincidently, OKC had to go though the Mavs, Lakers, and the Spurs to reach the Finals.

Hack a tiago was fun to watch.

Lebron in game 4 was amazing.

I would say also that we learned that it’s LeBron then Bosh then D-Wade on the most important to Miami’s success on the floor.

Lebron doesn’t play well angry.  

The next couple paragraphs are about game two (I think), when I decided to do a bit of a play-by-play with some of my thoughts.

6 man team in game 1 for Miami was way too small. (they fixed that in games 2-5)  Fouls on KD are baloney.  Almost all of D-Wades’ buckets were from transition.  Fisher is owned on D# but for some reason is actually shooting very well.  Collison was about the only Thunder player that could stop Lebron.  He (Collison) was offering some great help defense, and every time Lebron drove on Sefo, Collison was there to deter Lebron into a bad shot.   Why is Harden not at PG?  OKC is learning to be hungrier, improved, and more experienced.  Refs have something against KD??  Put KD on D-Wade and Westbrook on Lebron (still wish they would do this).  Sefo always misses short shots???  Lebron hopstep is insane.  A little zone??  Close short to drivers!  More bench.  Fisher has played in 43 Finals games.  When Fisher played his 1^st NBA game, James Harden was 7 years old.

Spoelstra nice 6^th man with 30 seconds to go.  Sorry for the low quality, but I didn't really see a better quality video of it in my quick perusing.  

88-85 1:00 minute to go, James waits till 11 seconds on the shot clock then drives and fires a very off balance long 2.  It clanks (of course) and West gets the rebound.  Westbrook probes and passes out of a corner 3, then gets the ball back and shoots an open 3 with 33 seconds to go.  Battier the rebound, Lebron dribbles near midcourt and Harden guards him trying to draw the offensive foul (While Coach Brooks and Westbrook were yelling at him to stop).  

Lebron just misses the first free throw and nets the second.  89-85 with 16 seconds to go.  After a TO, OKC has a fairly basic box set (at the lane), and Durant runs a rub off screen off of Westbrook and Perkins and Durant happen to be running AWAY from the ball.  Sefo and West miscommunicate and Sefo throws it away.  D-Wade ices the game.  91-85 with 13 seconds left.  Another TO, to set up another box set.  Durant at the top left corner of the lane (away from the ball) Harden comes over to set a very lame screen on him, and Durant just stands and watches.  Westbrook is forced to get the ball and chucks a three.  It also clanks, and Lebron snatches the rebound and dribbles out the clock. 

After 5 games, it was proven that the Finals were fixed.  Just kidding.

You don’t go to a pep rally to say maybe, so why should the media blame Lebron.  (Colin Cowherd paraphrase)

First you're a team, then a winner, then a contender, and finally something special.  

We weren’t losing, we were learning how to win.  Ringless king is no more.  Would have been nice to have Maynor for the Finals. (Hmm... so much for that)  Dominated on boards.  Wade kept scoring off of CUTS.  

I can live with everyone but Bosh (If he’s open) and Lebron beating us.  Does Durant ever put his hand up?  Sure he's 7 feet tall, but that doesn't mean you can't become over 9 ft with your wingspan..  Durant likes to attack D-Wade.  Thunder not sprinting back.  Awesome matchups.  Always close out short.  Lebron shut down KD in the 4^th.  Three other NBA active coaches with rings. 

This next bit was written write after D'antoni was chosen to be HC for the Lakers, even though they had the option to hire Phil Jackson again.

Coach D'antoni 

So the Lakers had the choice between Phil Jackson and Mike D’antoni: A choice between probably the best NBA coach of all time with an insanely hefty regular season record .704 and a coach with a .533 season record: A choice between LeBron James and Anderson Varajeo.  And yet somehow the Lakers didn’t go with the guy who has won 11 NBA championships, (which is unreal) they went with the guy who hasn’t even won a Conference Finals series.

How is a 38-year-old Steve Nash, a 35-year-old Kobe Bryant, and a somewhat slow D-Howard supposed to run up the court in an up-tempo offense?  How is a coach that has never really taught defense supposed to suddenly start teaching defense? (Though the Lakers have actually looked decent against the Spurs early on)

If I was the coach of LAL, while I wouldn’t want to walk the ball up the court, I definitely wouldn’t want to sprint up the court either, considering their pieces.  My main offense would just be a 3 point extended pick and roll with Pau Gasol and Steve Nash, while Kobe Bryant is spotting up near one corner or cutting to the hoop, D-Howard is posting up, and I guess Ron Artest or whoever is staying near one side of the top-of-the-key. 

Sadly for them, the Lakers did not take my advice, and instead decided to have Kobe (while he was uninjured obviously) dominate the ball, while everyone else just tried to get his..  Not nearly as effective.  

When I was watching the Lakers last Sunday I would say that the plurality leader in usage was a Nash-Howard pick and roll.  While I don't dislike it a ton normally.. (Since they have other worse choices in their playbook) Nash currently has no turn-the-corner speed these days (understandably), so the offense is very ineffective.  

Right now the offense generally consists of a decentish (though generally half-hearted at the same time) screen by Howard, followed by Nash going around Howard seeing Duncan (or whomever) four or so feet ahead, so he just releases an open 18 foot jumper..

Nash does have good form, but it's not quite as good when he's injured.. And I also never want (effectively) anyone (with the possible exception of someone like Stephen Curry if he's really hot) taking 18 foot jumpers.  Even if they are uncontested, long jumpers are (somewhat obviously) very, very, poor efficiency shots.  

Well, I am finally done with my 2012 NBA recap in 2013..  Thanks for reading.

Lakers vs Spurs Game 1

I normally don't do this, obviously, but I just watched the Spurs vs Lakers game and I wanted to give some of my thoughts and insight on the game.  I was doing various things while I watched the game, so I didn't have a chance to chart anything, and while I would like to do it for the next game, it is vaguely late so I'm not certain yet. I'll start with my four most disappointing things for the Lakers this game/things they need to improve to have a chance in this series.

1. I thought (as most probably would) the Lakers were hurt the most by missing wide open jumpers.

2. I was very disappointed with their rebounding.

3. This should actually be the highest one..  The coaching by Coach D'antoni.  I think the Lakers should improve this by trading him for either Phil Jackson or Gregg Popvich.. I kid, I kid.  (sort of)

4. While this should also technically be higher..  And normally it would be... The fourth biggest problem for the Lakers was their passing.  Way too many careless turnovers.  18 to 9 was the overall turnover margin.  Hard to win a game when you're effectively spotting the other team around 9 points.  Probably at least 4 or 5 were simply awful passes that were simply not the right decision.

I didn't think that Nash quite had his legs back (which is understandable) and that probably helped him to shoot 6 of 15 from the field.  He and Gasol probably missed more than a half dozen wide-(enough for a semi)-open jumpers.  Another couple days to rest should help them a little bit.

I thought that Gasol's and Nash's jumpers had decent enough arc to them, but on the other side, Tim Duncan  (while he still has a great low post game) was flat-lining long shot after long shot, assuming it continues, then that will be a decent advantage for the Lakers.

The Lakers actually shot a better % from the field overall then the Spurs, something I wouldn't have guessed.  The Spurs got a few easy (passer and cutter created) layups, but otherwise it was actually (generally) decent defense by the Lakers.  While, as I said, I was not charting this game, I thought that the Lakers were probably beating the Spurs on offense in the area of 3 to 2 (3 good possessions to 2 good ones, or various other combinations..), and on defense 5 to 3 (Where the Lakers might have contested 3 shots on defense and let one layup slip by {undefended}, while the Spurs were giving up two open jumpers but had two contested shots).  Having an offensive and defensive advantage in the area of 6 to 4 per 10 possessions is not a game that a team will lose very often.

If one of these two teams playing had to pick him up, then I think the Lakers should have been the team to pick up Tracy McGrady, because they could have seriously used him in that game.  I don't know what happened to Earl Clark this game, but he was practically invisible.  He will need to step it up for the Lakers to win game 2.  The Lakers bench was reallllly bad this game.  Since Jodie Meeks is a little injured now, I think they should give Earl Clark more minutes.

Since you've got the 1's seeds going tonight, the playoffs quite possibly will not officially start (in some people's books) until possibly Wednesday.  Since the Clippers and Nets will quite possibly take care of business at home as well.  And the Tuesday matchups are somewhat heavy on the favorites.  So I kind of think that (though hopefully there will be more drama than this) the playoffs will finally begin, with someone getting a road win, when the Lakers beat the Spurs Wednesday night.

Two more things the Lakers need to change.

1.  While I already talked about this a little, the Lakers have to improve their rebounding in game 2.  (they should be dominating it) The trio of Howard, Gasol, and Artest should be humiliating the trio of Duncan, Leonard, and Splitter.  Also, just in case no one noticed this..  There were a ton of rebounds this game, and by the end of the 1st half, you could tell that the winner was going to be the team that controlled the glass and didn't commit as many turnovers (the team with more possessions overall would win), however the Lakers seemed to be playing in safe mode despite consistently being down 6-12 points.  The Lakers would send (maybe!) Howard to the glass, while everyone else just jogged back..  What the heck was that??  Are the Lakers simply happy to be in the playoffs and they'll go ahead and fold up now?  I don't think so... But.. That was disturbing for their chances in this series.

To change it, I think the Lakers (especially if they fall behind by 8 or more) need to be sending everyone but Nash and possibly Blake towards the hoop.  So what if you give up the occasional fast break layup, the Lakers needed to be showing effort and getting rebounds, not retreating to 'stop the fast break'. (righhhht)

2. The final thing the Lakers need to change..  Steve Nash has to become the floor general on Wednesday.  He didn't have a horrible game today, a bad shooting performance, 3 assists 1 turnover overall (though it was an ugly and unnecessary TO).

... Just thought of another thing.  There was quite a bit of iso for Howard and Gasol.. I didn't like that very much..  I might upload a better play, imho, at some point...  Thanks for reading.

NBA Western Conference Playoffs 2013

1 Oklahoma City vs 8 Houston

And thus begins my disliking of the WC matchups..  Thanks to adding Jeremy Lin and James Harden, the Rockets have become my 2^nd favorite team in the NBA only behind the Thunder, so it kind of stinks that they play each other the first round.  OKC has improved each year over the last 5 years, and the only way they could really improve on last year is to finish with an NBA Championship.

I did quickly ponder if there were any ways for the Rockets to somehow have a path to being the Champion.. But it didn’t last very long.  It’s kind of funny how many games the Thunder won by 10 or more…  44 to be precise.  44 of their 60 wins.  Impressive to say the least.

Houston is an extremely good 8 seed..  More like a 4 seed in reality. 

The Thunder's average margin of victory per game at +9.4 (I think) is the sixth-highest figure since the introduction of the 3-point line starting with the 1979-80 season. (And all of those teams won the Championship, so it's kind of a good trend.)

I think it is really cool how the Rockets shoot so many 3’s each game.  (I might go on a quick rant sometime about how efficient 3 teams should shoot many more three's than they already do.  And even inefficient 3 teams should sometimes shoot more threes.)

I think that Houston can light up OKC in one game at home.  And I don’t think OKC will want to completely embarrass Harden..  So… This will be the most interesting series to me and I see OKC taking it in 5.  (due to the pity game.. I assume.)

Oklahoma City in 5.

2 San Antonio vs 7 Los Angeles

The Spurs have had so many 50+ win season in a row, wow. 

People have though that the Lakers are so awful all season… And while they have underachieved a ton.. Honestly, they still have a chance to make a deep run in the playoffs.  No offense to Mr. Bryant (who was possibly having his best efficiency season ever), but I don’t think the Lakers are much worse without him.

I really would have liked to overload on some NBA in the last two weeks, but I didn't really have a chance.. So this is partially a gut feeling and box score reading thought.. But.. Are the Spurs having some serious difficulties?  Something seems off about them. 

I think I have given the Spurs a nickname.. Perpetually underrated team. A little awkward, but it works.  Although if they do lose in the first round, then I think I’ll change that to perpetually underrated regular season team.  Which is a bit too long..  So PURST for short or something. 

Howard has missed more free throws this season (366) than Nash has missed in his 17-year NBA career (322). 

While I could be reading it incorrectly, It appears that the Lakers have the least amount of fouls called against them and the 2nd most called against an opponent. 

In the 3 games the two teams played in the regular season, the games were decided by a combined 10 points, so they were very competitive games.   Both teams have had some injury problems in the regular season, but (other than Kobe) most players will be there for the playoffs.

Guess what.. I’m going to underrate the perpetually underrated team.  I think that Dwight Superman Howard is back, and that he will help lead the Lakers to a first round upset.  (Finally I picked a seed upset).  

     This pick is based more on eye test (not that I’ve seen either team lately), then how good each team actually is.  Weirdly enough, I almost picked the Lakers in 5, (which seed-wise, would be a huge upset.  Stats-wise, says effectively the opposite, I would say that they say Spurs in about 5) but I finally did end up settling on a vaguely major upset..   (In simulating this in my mind and with stats, I forgot about T-Mac coming to the Spurs.. So I don't know if he'll even be playing, but I guess he’s a bit of a variable.  Overall, this is probably just a bad pick.)

Lakers in 6

3 Denver vs 6 Golden State

For some reason, (even though none of their players are my favorites), I have this strange affinity for Denver this year, yet not really any individual player on Denver's roster.  In the playoffs they are probably my 3^rd favorite team.  Also in terms of power rankings, I would say that they are #3. 

I would put Igoudola on Curry and let Curry have fun with that..  That’s the main reason I think this series will be over quickly.  The Nuggets have lost in the first round of the playoffs in 8 of the last 9 years.  That’s kind of hard to do..  Huh.  However, I think this team would beat any of those other 9 teams. 

Gallinari was a huge loss for them, but I still think they can do some serious damage in the playoffs.  Curry is the main reason why the Warriors are actually in the playoffs.  Also, what happened to the people who thought that Curry shouldn’t have been drafted so high and that he would never make it in the NBA?  Hmmm?  That’s what I thought.

Both rosters are very young.  I kind of like 5 or 6 for the Nuggets, but I keep coming back to my first sweep for the WC.  Though, at the same time I just don’t know.. How couldn’t Curry simply go off for at least one game.

I’m guessing this prediction isn’t all that popular, but I’ll go out on a limb and say..

Nuggets in 4

4 Los Angeles vs 5 Memphis

If Memphis was facing anyone else in the first round but OKC and Denver, then I would probably be picking them to win.. But, they face the Clippers and Chris Paul.  Side note.  Chris Paul’s is only 27??  Whoa. 

Memphis is a quality team, but the Clippers appear to be the better team. I would say the Clippers are the 4^th best team in the NBA.  They are respectively #1 and #2 in turnovers created, so that’s interesting.  I guess I'll say a relative repeat of last year.

Clippers in 7

2^nd Round aka Semifinals

1 Oklahoma City vs 4 Los Angeles Clippers

Not a good matchup for the Thunder here..  I would say the Thunder should only be worried about 3 or possibly 4 teams in the playoffs: the Heat (obviously), the Nuggets, the Pacers (maybe), and finally the Clippers.   I’m not quite positive on what to do on this series, I could go from 5-7 games..

Oklahoma City in 5           

3 Denver vs 7 Los Angeles Lakers

I would prefer the Thunder to face the Lakers where the Lakers start with a 2-0 lead, then take on the Nuggets straight-up..

Denver is so insanely deep..  Koufous, Mcgee, Chandler, and Brewer could all be starters on a couple playoff teams. (not as a package deal necessarily, but as individuals)  If the Lakers would win this series, then that would cause all sorts of mayhem about what should be done with / what Kobe should do.

Ouch.  Well, I kind of backed myself into this one..  If it weren’t for the injuries to a couple Nuggets players, then there would be no way that I would do this.. (another reason is that the Nuggets are so young) But as it is.. And I don’t know if I even think this anyways..  But, here it goes.

Lakers in 6     Haha, just kidding.  Denver in 5

Western Conference Championship

1 Oklahoma City vs  3 Denver

Coach Karl and company didn’t just make it past the first round, but they made it all the way to the Conference championship game. These two amazing/indestructible/undefeatable (basically) teams at home is mostly how I see most of this series playing out.  This will be the second most tense series..

Thunder in 6.

NBA Finals Matchup

Oklahoma City vs Miami

While last year Thunder vs Miami, or SA vs Miami was probably the plurality favorite, this year I’m guessing it’s close to a super majority that have been predicting Miami vs OKC and then Miami over OKC.

I think that OKC returns the favor this year..  If this matchup does happen (again), then I'll certainly be writing more on the matchup.

Thunder in 6.

NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs 2013

I spent/kind of wasted a lot of yesterday doing all of my NBA playoff preview/predictions, and other NBA stuff.  Since I was doing such a high volume of material in one day, this blog post is occasionally a little less professional then usual. (laugh track inserted here)

I like all of the Eastern Conference matchups, but I dislike most of the Western Conference matchups due to them knocking out a couple teams I like.

1 Miami vs 8 Milwaukee

In some ways I think that Milwaukee is underrated and that they could take a game or two from any other team in the Eastern Conference.  However, there is a slight problem for the Bucks.. They’re playing the dominating Heat.  And this isn’t the 2011 version of the Heat where they tried to dominate every single game (even unnecessary ones) to spite all of the haters, or the early 2012 version, where for much of the season they just tried to beat teams, but not do it in a way that would be embarrassing.  No.  This is the 2013/2012 late version of the Heat, where the Heat don’t take prisoners, and they don’t care what the media writes about them. 

While the Heat won’t really care about this series, I don’t think that this is a NY type series from last year, where the Heat simply don’t have a killer mentality. This year, (after beating the Bucks by a high single digit, and low double digit victory at home) the Heat will walk into Milwaukee and simply physically dominate the Bucks, and not care about hurting any of the Buck’s players ‘feelings’ (aka Carmelo Anthony last year). 

The best player for the Bucks according to ORtg / DRtg is LARRY SANDERS!  at 109 to 99.  That guy on the Heat named Lebron James?  An off the charts 125 to 101.  (also a Win shares of .322, which is stinking crazy)

Never would have guessed this, but in 42 games played Chris Anderson is putting up some similar numbers to Lebron in those two stats.  Also, while I’m stating some insane Lebron stats, here’s another..  His True Shooting % is .640. 

Here are two quick, fun stats/facts about the Heat. 

1.  The Heat are 37-2 when Chris (Birdman) Anderson gets minutes.  I don’t know why players, the media, and fans are praising Lebron James so much..  It’s clearly Anderson who has been doing all the heavy lifting.  Clearly.

2.  How long has Erik Spoelstra been the coach of the Heat?  Ever since Lebron has been there, so 3 years, right..? No, he hasn’t been the coach of Miami for just three years, it’s actually been five.  And Miami has always been above .500 and made the playoffs in his five years as HC. 

All the Bucks should be playing for in this series is either a moral victory, or if they play really well, then possibly an extremely contested home win.  This is the only series that I have as a sweep for the first round in the East and the only series overall where I would be stunned if the underdog won.

Over the past 15 years, Milwaukee has practically perpetually been around a .470 team.

This was actually my longest review.. So yeah.. This also happens to be the one series that is effectively a guarantee to end in four or five games in favor of the Heat.  After it took me so long to write this though, that's why the rest of these series discussions are a tad shorter.

I certainly don’t have anything bucking (groan) the public majority for this game. 

Even the amazingness of LARRY SANDERS! can’t stop the Heat.

Miami in 4

2 New York vs 7 Boston

Interesting matchup here. 

This is the worst Boston team in half a decade+.  While the Knicks have the best team they’ve had in over a decade. If it wasn’t for the bombing tragedy, then I might just pick Knicks in 5, but I think the basketball fans in Boston will be provide one of the best Home court advantages they’ve ever had, so I’ll say the series is more of a toss-up.

With Stoudemire, I think NY would win easily.  Also, did Stoudemire play at all this year?  It was like he would come back for a couple weeks, then bang, he’s out with another injury.  Feel kind of bad for the guy.  Though, it’s not like he’s not getting paid.., so yeah, not that sorry.

Coach Woodson somehow got Smith and Carmelo to both shoot vaguely efficiently this season.  Which led to Anthony having his best season ever.  

Also, can we please agree that Anthony shouldn't really be deemed 'scoring champ'..  He took 22.2 shots a game, while KD only took 17.7 per game.  About 25% more shots per game.. Yeah, if you want to get the scoring title that way then congrats.. But you could just give Nate Robinson or someone like that, 30 shots a game, and then they would win the 'title'.  Also, KD played more games then Anthony, so he actually scored more points overall, anyways.  

I would say that the stats actually say Knicks in 4.  I wanted to give this series to Boston, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.  I had difficulty deciding on where to place this series..  It’s hard to say whether the Knicks will take the series in six or seven... Knicks in 6

3 Indiana vs 6 Atlanta

Indiana has been extremely healthy this year. 

Coach Vogel is a very good coach. 

Hansbrough is a bit underatted.

George Hill’s ORtg and DRtg is close to off the charts.  Korver’s 119 to 105 is the best for an opposing player.

Contemplated picking Atlanta for a couple of seconds.. That was about all it took. 

I don’t expect the games to be complete blowouts or anything like that, but I do expect Indiana to win a couple of games convincingly. 

Pacers in 5

4 Brooklyn vs 5 Chicago

It is possible that I missed the memo on this… But, why do people hate this series?  While I would say that it is the most ‘boring’ matchup other than Miami vs Milwaukee, it’s still a very decent matchup. 

Start playing a little defense, and suddenly fans and the media are freaking out about how boring teams are..  It’s called defense. 

Jimmy Butler captures the best rating. Deron Williams for the Nets.

I am going to assume that D-Rose is not going to play this season, and that Noah will not be 100%.  If there weren't any injuries, then this would go 7.  Seed-wise this is not an upset, but public perception-wise, it is a very small upset.

Brooklyn in 6

Summary 1^st round

So based on all of that, I don’t see any 7 game series in the first round for the East.  And I see all of the (seed) favorites advancing in the first round… A bit lame, I know.

2^nd round aka Semifinals

1 Miami vs 4 Brooklyn

You never play or coach to lose the game or anything like that, but I kind of wonder if Coach Spoelstra might take game 4 off in hopes that the team will lose, so that some of the pressure can be released from the team.

Since February 3^rd the Heat have suffered all of two losses.  37 wins in their last 39 in the regular season.   Think about this..  They went from 29-14 to 66-16.  That sounds so absurd.  There were a fair number of close wins in that.. But, mostly it was just high single digit and low double digit victories. 

I think Williams and Lopez could go off one game at home to steal one game..  So Miami suffers their first loss… I guess.   That was my first impression.. Then I remembered Chris Anderson.  The dude has gone 39-3 this year, so why would the Heat lose here..?  Pretty simple.  They will not.  (I guess.)

Miami in 4

2 New York vs 3 Indiana

Assuming the Pacers can even reach the Conference Finals,
then Hibbert will have to play some of the best basketball of
 his career for the Pacers to have a decent chance against the Heat.

It’s a good thing for Indiana that their defense is so good, because honestly (for a playoff team) their offense kind of stinks.  Other than that the two teams are theoretically opposites (offensively and defensively), but they actually have many similarities in overall stats and general play.

The Knicks have been on a small version of a Miami Heat roll lately, but I think it ends here.  Finally a seed upset.

Indiana 6

1 Miami vs 3 Indiana

An intriguing rematch of one of last year’s playoff matchups, only this time the winner moves on to the NBA Finals. 

Indiana was getting too much love early in the season, and then from about the All-Star break on they’ve virtually been ignored (due to them struggling and Miami dominating). I do give the Pacers half of a chance in this series, but the problem for them is that it’s only half of a chance.

Heat in 6

NBA Review 2013

NBA
First I have a quick sentence or so about a team, then at the end I put up how many wins I was off by, + means I should have guessed more wins, - means I should have guessed more losses.
I didn't go into as much detail for the teams that didn't make the playoffs as I would have liked, and I don't know if I'll ever get to do that fully.  But, I still have all of my stats blogs to edit and post, so each team will be in that.  Also, for the teams that made the playoffs I'll be talking about them in my NBA playoff preview and predictions for 2013.  A bunch of NBA stuff and draft emptying should be posted over the next two weeks.

Atlanta Hawks
Good year for Korver, Smith, and the rest of the Hawks.  -4

Boston Celtics
The injury bug bit the Celtics this year, but even without Rondo, they managed to finish 41-40.  -'6'

Brooklyn Nets

D-Will got some rest, and torched opponents in the second half of the season.  +4

Charlotte Bobcats
I had very low expectations for the Bobcats, and they still somehow underachieved.  -2

Chicago Bulls
I think the preview hypothesis can officially (and thankfully) be declared invalid. +2

Cleveland Cavaliers
Don't really agree with the Cavs firing Byron Scott, though the Cavs should have been better this season.  He had to deal with a young team lacking talent, and a team that suffered lots of injuries.  (Overall, he shouldn't get the blame.)  Also, my preseason prediction shouldn't get any blame, either..  If the Cavs had a healthy Kyrie and Varejao, then they would have been vastly improved, and I am sure my prediction would have been accurate.  But, as it is..  -14

Dallas Mavericks
Nowizkti, and the Mavs finally got to shave their beards at the end of the season, and that was about it for  interesting things that happened with the Mavs..  Just kidding.  But seriously, I probably only saw one or two Mavs games all year, so I don't know a lot about them.
Ding, Ding, Ding.  Winner Winner Chicken Dinner. +/- 0

Denver Nuggets
Whoa, I actually underestimated the Nuggets nastiness.  +5

Detroit Pistons
Andre Drummond provided great PER, discussion.. But that was about it for Detroit this year.
Another winner in the prediction column. +/- 0

Golden State Warriors
I kept the Warriors out of the playoffs, basically soley because of their owner.  Bad decision.   Curry was amazing (as expected).  +13

Houston Rockets
So how do the experts feel about the Rockets now?  Hmmm?  At least this surprise pick came through for me.  And it came through extremely well.  Right on the number.
I kind of assume that from here on my predictions will be worse, but wow, so far other than two main hiccups they've been astoundingly accurate.  +/- 0

Indiana Pacers
I'm not certain as to why I was quite so negative with the Pacers..  I guess the improvement by Stephenson, and Hill caught me off guard, or something.  +'10'

Los Angeles Clippers
Lob City continued to provide entertainment and wins.  Another one right on the mark. +/- 0

Los Angeles Lakers
I never made this official or anything.. (not that this blog is official in anyway, anyways..)  But, when I made my Lakers and Knicks predictions I totally forgot who the HC's were..  So a day after I posted, I remembered who they were and went ahead and swapped (mentally..) three wins from the Lakers to the Knicks.
      If I had only known that the Lakers were going to hire Mike D'antoni this season... Then. Yeah..  I would have been a lot more accurate on this prediction.  Also, my quick speel (Oddly I don't know how you spell that) addressing about Nash in the preview... And then Nash either being, or playing hurt for most of the season.  Yeah.. I suppose that's another reason my prediction was high.  So in some ways I am surprised it was as accurate as it was.  -7

Memphis Grizzlies
For some reason, it appears that I was hating to much on two physical teams.  Memphis and Indiana.  Very wrong on both accounts.  It's like I expected one of their big-men to struggle, Z-Bo, and Hibbert, but that I didn't expect anyone would pick the team up.  Ha.  Or something.  +16

Miami Heat
I had the Heat with the best record in the preseason preview.. But, it turned out to still be fairly low.  I suppose the 27 in a row thing kind of threw me off.  +9

Milwaukee Bucks
My preview hate on management, turned out to be a little to hard on the Bucks in terms of W-L.  Though, I think that Redick helped contribute a few wins.  However, I still don't understand management..  (While there were certainly other players in the deal..) Who in management was thinking that a trade of Tobias Harris for a rental of Redick was a good idea.?  Yeah that'll work well.  And while you're at it why not try to trade one of your few good players, LARRY SANDERS!, for JR Smith, or some other horrible efficiency person.  (I'm not saying Redick is a bad efficiency player, I'm talking about Ellis and Jennings) +10

Minnesota Timberwolves
Are the T-Wolves cursed?  Obviously, no.  And while that is certainly the case..  How many other players have you heard of (unless you're like Bynum, and you injure yourself bowling..) that inure themselves doing something mundane, like push-ups?  aka Kevin Love.  But, he certainly wasn't the only one who was injured this past season..  You could basically pick any player off the T-Wolves, and they would have some games that they sat out due to injury this season.   Due to all of that, my prediction fell a bit flat.  -11

New Orleans Hornets
Huh.  Gordon apparently is kind of like the NBA's Michael Vick.  Looks pretty decent for stretches, then has a long injury, and then comes back and struggles.  -16

New York Knicks
Mike. Woodson. Is. A. Genius.
At least apparently, anyways.
Quick aside.  Per usual, I am sticking by my criticism of management in regards to their off-season moves for players..  Also, I suppose I should mention, that in this case the experts were actually right about a team.  So props for that.  But, anyways, forgetting that..

Coach Woodson has been amazing.  The players he had effectively injury free for the season were Novak, Kidd, Prigioni, and Smith.  The rest (effectively) were players who missed a minimum of a dozen games.  He somehow melded the Knicks roster into a record of 54-28.  Not that I trust the Knicks to do anything in the playoffs, but still a very impressive job by Coach Woodson.  +12.

Oklahoma City Thunder
According to the last couple years tradition for the Thunder.. In which the they improve their record every single year, the Thunder (barring another team being insanely good) were going to get the #1 seed this year.  And sadly, that is what happened.  And not only are they Goliath this year, but all season KD has been (mostly in jest) trying (and failing) to take an I'm not a nice person perception to the public.  So it will be (very) slightly more difficult to root for them this post-season.   +8

Orlando Magic
Rinse and repeat my short preview of them..  Not a lot to see here..  Other than a great prediction anyways. +/- 0

Philadelphia 76ers
Well... Bynum, didn't even produce stats this year.. So.. Yeah.  This prediction didn't really work out.  Not thrilled with the 76er's firing Coach Collins.. He was given very little to work with.   -12

Phoenix Suns
I'm doing this review, while looking back at my preview for the season and...   Huh.  Wow.  I must have been drinking something.. (water that was bad, most likely) that messed with my thinking.  I don't understand it.. Why in the world did I think the Suns would be good..?  Fail.  -17

Portland Trail Blazers
I assumed a healthy Aldridge, and the Blazers got it for most of the season.  -3

Sacramento Kings
A slight underachievement by the Kings.  -5

San Antonio Spurs
Huh.  The Spurs 'overachieved'.  I actually undervalued the perpetually undervalued/underrated team.  And fairly badly at that.  The Spurs have been aging really well.  Great job by Coach Popovich. -12

Toronto Raptors
Lowry made the Raptors interesting.. But, now the Raptors traded for Gay, so they're likely stuck with him for a few years.  Rudy Gay is a kind of interesting player.  For instance..  Did anyone else know that he is only 27 years old?  Because, I know I didn't. So while he has been fairly inefficient throughout his career (to be somewhat kind), he also does still has time to improve.  -3

Utah Jazz
Ehh.  Slightly less horrible than expected.  +5

Washington Wizards
Wall being injured is what hurt this prediction.  (though if he'd be healthy all year, then it might have actually been low)  -6

Here are all of my double digit wrong teams, based on categories.

First a category, that is unpredictable, and thus, these double digit picks in the red were not actually that bad.

Injuries:  Cavs, Hornets, T-Wolves, and 76er's (also the Lakers if not for my swap)

Bias against: GS Warriors management

Two physical teams: Pacers and Grizzlies

What the heck was I thinking: Suns

Forgot about: Coach Woodson (NY Knicks)

Overachieving (for real this time..):  Spurs

So I only 'badly' (badly being defined as being double digits wrong) missed on six teams.  Not too shabby.  I almost had that many teams that I exactly nailed (5).  

So overall, my predictions were surprisingly good.  At least to me.. So yeah, probably not that great to most people.  But to me they were at least decent.

It appears that I had a total of 212 games incorrect.  Average of 7.1 wrong per team.  Kind of weird that I had so many zero's and yet the average was higher than expected.  8.6% on a proportional level as compared to the number of games.

Thanks for reading.  Hope you enjoyed the post, feel free to comment and subscribe.

Will Tebow Be Leaving Gotham City?

Where will Tebow end up?

In this blog I am trying to put a percentage chance as to where Tebow will end up after Free Agency.  My second narrow down is in regards to the most likely 10 teams.

[After my second narrow down (which will quite possibly be less accurate), I thought there was about a 1/3 (35%) chance of Tebow either staying in NY or going to the Vikings.]

Then I also put in my preferred options for Tebow. If I want Tebow to go to a team I’ll put a Y in the box.  N is for no, E is for ehh, and M is for maybe.

If the likelihood is A then it is very likely, if it is F, then it is not likely at all.  (I’ll leave F’s as 0’s.)

Team	Likelihood	100%, (1st)	100% (2nd)	With preferred	100%
NE	C	5
Mi	F
NY	B	15	20	E	10
Bu	D	3
Ba	F
Ci	D	3
Pi	D	3
Cl	C	5	10	Y	15
Ho	F
In	F
Te	C	5	10	Y	20
Ja	C	5	10	Y	20
De	F
SD	C	5	10	E	5
Oa	D	3
KC	D	3
Wa	F
NY	F
Da	D	3
Ph	D	3	5	E
GB	F
Mi	B	15	15	Y	20
Ch	C	5	5	N
De	D
At	D	3
Ca	F
NO	F
TB	C	6	10	M	10
SF	F
Se	F
SL	C	5	5	M
Ar	C	5

The Most Likely Spots for Tim Tebow Five Months from now.

According to me, there is a 20% likelihood that Tebow will end up with the Titans.  I don’t think the Titans are in a great position to insert Tebow due to Locker being a decent QB and also the Titans have a good backup in Hasselbeck.  But, if they were to trade for/insert Tebow, then I would love the fit for both sides.

20% with the Jaguars.  If Jaguars management had more football sense, then they would trade Gabbert, a first rounder and half their team for Tebow.  (I’m joking.. partially) But, I think the Jags seem more focused on economic sense.. So since they want to move to LA, and getting a good QB that will excite the local fan base would not exactly help that proposition’s chances they will quite likely stay away from Tebow.  As with the Titans, if both sides tried to make it work, then it would work out amazingly well for both sides.

20% Minnesota.  This is the team I would like Tebow to go to the most.  I think Ponder gets some undeserved blame for being bad, but, at the same time, Tebow would certainly be better than Ponder.  I think it could possibly happen, but since Ponder has at least a little credibility with the organization it’s not that likely.

Cleveland 15%.  Same type of problem, as with the Titans, for the Browns.  The Browns have a serviceable QB and are not really in the market for a new QB.

10% likelihood that Tebow will still be in New York.  I don’t really want him to stay in NY, considering how much the Jets burned Tebow last year, but the Jet's management has been very random, so I guess it's still possible.

10% (combined) chance that Tebow will go to either Tampa Bay or San Diego.  Both have decent QB’s that are somewhat maligned, so there’s a slight possibility here.

[Editing note]

And it turned out that Tebow went to a team that did not even make my second narrow down, the New England Patriots.  Though the Patriots didn't actually end up keeping Tebow for the regular season, so it doesn't entirely count.