Monday, October 28, 2013

Fixing the Bobcats, part 2

Part two of being the hypothetical GM of the Charlotte Bobcats (Aka the Hornets).

Comparison to the rest of the NBA
The lines are done as if I am the home team in regards to +/-, but really the game line is set based on playing the game on a neutral court.  And the lines are done as if the Hornets were facing the various teams in the 2012-13 season.  I didn't go into these with as much effort as the Bobcat simulation, (though I still looked at each individual lineup and typical numbers as compared to my lineup) so these are a little bit more vague projections.
(This is just done by division order.)

Eastern Conference
Boston        +1  Garnett is the difference. (also this sim was without Rondo, with Rondo it's more like +6 or +7
Brooklyn     +1 Would probably be a very even game.  
New York   -2  The Knicks bench would get destroyed by the Hornet's bench.
Philadelphia -4  Could have gone higher on this one.
Toronto      +3  I think the Raptors matchup fairly well.
Chicago      +3  Fairly poor matchups for the Hornets.
Cleveland    -3  The bench players for each squad were the deciding factors in this game.
Detroit        -6   If not for Drummond and Monroe, this line would have been huge.
Indiana       +6  Not a horrible line against the first high quality team.
Milwaukee   -4  Really good matchups for the Hornets.
Atlanta         -1  The matchups even claim the number should be higher, but, at the same time, I don't see why the Hornets are even favored.
Bobcats       -7  I fail to see how the Bobcats could win even 3 games out of ten against this Hornets team.
Heat            +8  Could be worse, depends on how engaged the Heat are.
Magic          -8  Domination across the board, except for Zeller on Vucevic.
Wizards       -4  Matchups favor the Hornets, could have gone higher.

Pretending that the Hornets only played one game against each team, and that the games went exactly as the line said they should go, then this was the Hornet's record in the EC: 9-6, but with an overall scoring margin of -17.

Western Conference
Mavericks    -1   I would say pick-em, but since that isn't an option I'll take the Hornets.
Rockets       +7  Tempted to go higher with this number.
Grizzlies      +6   Faster pace, and this number would be a lot worse.  Very poor matchups.
Hornets        -6   Based on playing a Hornets team with an unhealthy Eric Gordon. (Which is kind of the norm..)
Spurs          +9   The Spurs would likely shred the Hornets with their excellent passing.
Warriors      +2   Curry is certainly the difference in this game.    
Clippers       +10 The lineups kind of screamed domination for the Clippers.  Biggest underdog line.
Lakers         +4   Zeller could be an alright post defender, but I'm guessing playing D-Howard will take a little while to get used to.
Suns            -11  Could have gone higher, but it was already kind of high and lines tend to curve towards the middle anyways.
Kings           -4   A little closer than expected.
Nuggets       +8  The benches are fairly even, otherwise it definitely favors the Nuggets.
Timberwolves  -2   (No Love, semi-obviously.)  Starters are fairly even, bench is the difference.
Thunder       +9  Likely not the closest game of all time..
Trail Blazers -1  Coin toss game, wasn't really convinced either way.
Jazz             -4  This would be an interesting matchup.

Based on the lines and playing each team once, the Hornets would have 7 wins and 8 losses in the WC, with an overall point spread of -26.
I'm a little bit tempted to go through all of 2012 and/or 2013 and W/L it, but that seems a bit time consuming, so I'll pass on that.  Instead, I'll simply just pretend that the Hornets would play each team in their conference four times, (Then push that down to the proper amount of games for the Eastern Conference, 52), and teams from the WC twice.  Based on the lines, the Hornets would go 14-16 in the WC, and 31-21 in the EC, for an overall record of 45-37.  Overall point differential would very likely be negative, however.  [It was interesting to see how the real Bobcats team of 2013-14 was able to overachieve and capture the seventh seed in the East due to their 43-39 record.  Al Jefferson had a much larger impact than I expected he would.  Also the real Bobcats matched my fictional Hornet's team in having a slightly negative point differential.]

(I tried to be accurate, but there could possibly be a few errors in this.)
Projected Active Roster Salary for 2013-2014
$     916,099    Adrien                             Expires in 2014 (the end of the season)        
$  3,049,920    Biyombo                          Team Option for 15             
$13,200,000    Gordon (into Humphries)   14
$  4,500,000    Mullens                           16                             
$  4,500,000    Henderson                       15       
$  4,000,000    McRoberts                      15
$  4,809,840   Kidd-Gilchrist                   Team Option for 15 and 16
$  5,000,000   Sessions                         14
$  2,462,400   Walker                             Team option for 15
$     788,872   Taylor                              15
$ 3,105,500    Zeller                                          17  estimated salary from Hoopsworld
$ 6,000,000    Korver                              Player option for 16
$ 3,500,000    Smith                              17
$ 3,500,000    Webster                          Player option for 17
2013-14 Total salary (for active players)
$59,332,631

Here is the actual roster for the Bobcats for the beginning of the 2013-14 season. Courtesy of ESPN.

Released players
$ 7,000,000 Thomas                            2015.  I do not know how all the details work, but I'm pretty sure that even if a team release's a player in the NBA, they still have to play the player effectively all the original contract salary, however, if another team picks up that player, then they have to pay a portion of that players salary too.. Or something like that.  It may only apply if they are grabbed off waivers.  (Or is that just for football.. Now I'm a little confused.)
$ 2,050,000 Haywood                          15

2013-14 Complete Salary (with releases)
$68,382,631 but since Thomas is amnestied, the taxable salary is actually..
$61,382,631 which, while not amazing, is still vaguely decent, considering Gordon/Humphries is a 13 million dollar anchor just by itself.  The Charlotte Bobcats had the 28th highest overall salary for players in 2012/13, which was only higher than Sacramento and Houston.  61 million would have only been one spot higher in 2012, at 27 instead of 28.

The expected salary cap for 2013-14 is 58.5 whilst 52.7 appears to be the minimum a team can play its players..   Tax level is possibly about 71 million.
I'll say the average salary in 2014 is 67.8.  The only two Bobcats who had guaranteed contracts in 14-15.. Of course happen to be Thomas and Haywood..  Ouch.  So theoretically, the Hornets would still have them as a salary hit until 15-16.  (Depending on how amnestying players works..)

Three random notes
It's kind of crazy how low the salary cap was 20 years ago.
The Cavaliers and Jazz have the most flexibility, while the Nets appear to be all but locked in until at least 15/16, with a 70 million+ salary.  Ouch..  I know Prokeroff has liked to spend money and all, but that seems a bit silly.
Somehow the Magic and 76er's each had 80 million plus salaries for 12/13 and the Magic are still locked into 75 million dollars of salary for 13/14.

Expected Salary and Roster for 2014-2015 Season
$     916,099    Adrien                            Expires in 2014 (the end of the season)
$  3,049,920    Biyombo                         Team Option for 15  
$  4,500,000    Mullens                           16                  
$  4,500,000    Henderson                       15     
$  4,000,000    McRoberts                      15
$  4,809,840   Kidd-Gilchrist                   Team Option for 15 and 16
$  2,462,400   Walker                             Team option for 15
$     788,872   Taylor                              15
$ 3,105,500    Zeller                                          17  (estimated salary from Hoopsworld)
$ 6,000,000    Korver                               Player option for 16
$ 3,500,000    Smith                               17
$ 3,500,000    Webster                            Player option for 17
$ 3,500,000    Andrew Harrison                Team Option for 17   (I'm just having a random guess that the Hornets will pick Harrison in the 2014 draft, I'm not necessarily saying he would be the right choice, [obviously] since I've never even seen him play.  And quite possibly the Hornets wouldn't be able to pick him anyways, since they would not have a high enough draft pick.)
$44,632,631 total.  Minimum of around 53 million..
It appears there will be less to do in terms of player acquisition and releases this year than in 2013/14.  Most players are locked in until 15/16.

No pursuits
Humphries is an obvious no pursuit, so thankfully there are no 8 figure salaries for the Hornets this year.
Sessions was a little bit tempting and if he would be able to sign in the area of 4-5.5 million for 2 years, then I might attempt to sign another contract, but I'm not certain if that would be realistic, so I will simply not pursue signing him.

FA pursuits
I looked at Arnett Moultrie, Evan Turner, Trever Booker, Dontas Motiejunas and a handful of other players.  But, Jeremy Evans, Kyle Lowry, and Patrick Beverley stood out.

I now realize that last season I should have traded for Jeremy Evans (And his ability to dunk has no connection to me wanting him to join the Hornets.) and Patrick Beverley.
For Evans, while I would like to acquire him now, I don't like one year rentals.  However, I will go ahead and do it anyways, and say that after I acquire him, I get him to sign a contract extension (if that would even be possible) at 5.5 million for 3 years and 7 million 4th year Team Option.
More or less the same for Beverley, but willing to take a risk and pay up to 5 to 7 million per year for the first three years.
For Lowry, I decided that I would draft a PG in the draft and forgo pursuing him, since I think Walker can be a decent PG.

Trades
Acquiring Evans: I'm not positive what the Jazz would want for him, but I'll say it only takes a second round pick from 2015 and 2016.
To acquire Beverley: Again, I'm not certain as to what the Rockets would want for him, but I'll say two first rounders from 2015 and 2016, respectively.

I think that Evans has the potential to be a high level starter (with low minutes), or possibly an all-star type player.  I kind of worry about his high tendency to foul, and his durability, but I'm willing to risk it.  Watching him (Beverley) play and looking at his advanced stats I have been very impressed with Beverley.

Stats that I have charted for Evans and Beverley.
Relates to           Shooting                                  Defense                               Extra plays
Player 2Q 2NQ 3Q 3NQ FT Q FT NQ Quality Good Medium Poor NQ
Bad play Charge Gd play Hustle Putback Steal
Evans 7-1,
0-1

0-1 3 2 5 3







Beverley 23-25 2-3 13-18 0-2 12-1
20 31 25 16 1
3 2-3, 8 8 0 3

Based on my stats, Evans is decent, but the sample size isn't even a fifth of the way to being significant.  But for Beverley the stats are somewhat significant and they claim that he is an elite player at all three of the phases of the game that I chart.  And, as an added bonus, he rebounds at an extremely high rate for a point guard.

Projected rotation minutes for the Hornets in the 2014-15 Season
Starters
PG   Beverley          30 mpg
SG   Korver            26 
SF   Kidd-Gilchrist  27
PF   Evans              18      (Going kind of small, so Smith might need to be here instead)
C     Zeller               27  

2nd wave 
PG    Walker/Harrison    25
SG   Henderson       14       
SF   Webster           22     
PF   Smith               20      
C     Mullens           13 

Players to get in for around ten minutes a game
SG  Taylor               5
PF   McRoberts       12  

In this completely fictional scenario, in two years and likely with a lower salary, I think that I have improved a 20 win type team into a 40+ win team.

Considering that the NBA Regular Season starts tomorrow evening I do not think that I will be able to get my NBA predictions out before the season begins.  I'm about 60% done with it now, and even if it will be slightly late I don't think that a couple days will really change the predictions very much.   Thanks for reading.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Fixing the Bobcats, part 1

For this blog post I will fictitiously be the GM of the Charlotte Bobcats.  This fictional scenario begins about 4 months before the 2013 season.  I won't always bother to delve extremely deeply into all of the financial aspects of keeping and attempting to add players, but obviously those aspects are very important, so I will still attempt to take those factors into consideration in my thought process for this scenario.
  
In my first move as GM of the Charlotte Bobcats, I recommend changing the name Charlotte Bobcats to Charlotte Hornets. (Since that name happens to be somewhat popular among Charlotte fans.) (Also to clarify, I was writing this around the time when the NBA draft occurred, so I do not think that the Bobcats had yet submitted a proposal to change their name to the NBA, and if they had, then they certainly had not been approved yet.)
As my second move, I resign as GM because the Hornets are hopeless.  
Okay.. Just joking about that one.
Next I think about either releasing or trading the entire roster, except for McRoberts and Walker.  Seriously. 

Here were the FA for Charlotte in 2013 courtesy of ESPN, from here.

            2013

Charlotte
RESTRICTED
Gerald Henderson
Byron Mullens

UNRESTRICTED
DeSagana Diop
Josh McRoberts
Jannero Pargo
Reggie Williams
Decisions for players who are on the team. 
Players who were especially looked into for either being released or traded are the following --  Haywood and Gordon. Thomas is amnestied. (Kind of a no-brainer to have Thomas amnestied. [And that is indeed what the the Bobcats did in reality as well.]  Maybe if he would improve his work-effort and 'coachability', he could become a decent basketball player, but you can't base keeping a player on unrealistic hopes.)

Un-pursued 
I definitely go ahead and let Pargo and Diop go.  (And for brevity's sake I will continue to use last names.)  Williams is heavily considered, but he is not pursued.

Middle Ground
Mullens is considered and offered a deal in the area of 3-6 million per year for 2 or 3 years, but if he refuses, then he is not pursued.  I think Mullens is kind of a dangerous player to offer a considerable contract to since he hasn't proven much of anything in his time in the NBA, but yet he has decent physical gifts, so in this case I am willing to take a risk here.

Pursued
McRoberts I would attempt to sign for a 3 year deal for anywhere from 3-5 million per year.
For Henderson it kind of depends on what kind of deal he would sign, if he is open for the same type of deal, maybe in the range of 3-6 million per year for 2 or 3 years, then I would likely sign him.

Releases and Trades
No trade partners are found for Haywood, (or possibly there is another team, and the Hornets and the other team swap old bench players) so he is released. 
As for Ben Gordon (who I'm just going to randomly guess, that in real life he picks up the player option, odd I know..) [and he did], the most realistic and helpful trade candidate I found were the Brooklyn Nets and Kris Humphries.  And it's even realistic enough that there was a bleacher report article about it possibly happening earlier this year.. So yeah..  Semi-legit anyways.
I think it tends to help both teams (though a fair amount more of an edge to the Hornets, imho), and the contract structure should work out for both as well, while each player is basically just a one year rental with a bad, expensive contract.  

Results of pursuits.  
Mullens is signed for 4.5 million per year for 3 years..  (I was partially basing projected salaries off of Hoopsworld, not entirely sure how they were doing their projections or if I properly understand what they were doing with it, but they effectively said 4.5 million dollars for Mullens next contract as I understood it.)
For Henderson, Hoopsworld said the same thing, so he is signed for 2 years on a 4.5 million dollars per year salary.
Hoopsworld doesn't offer any help on McRoberts, so I'll just say he wants to sign for a 2 year, 4 million dollar per year salary.
So in my scenario all three players were willing to sign, which I think is fairly realistic.  Especially since McRoberts was the only UFA.

First tentative roster without delving into FA
At this point I believe the roster should look like this:
SF   Adrien
PF   Biyombo
SG   Henderson
PF   Humphries
SF   Kidd-Gilchrist
PF   McRoberts
C     Mullens
PG   Sessions
SG   Taylor
PG   Walker
Not exactly a lineup that strikes fear into opponents, but whatever..
By position the Hornets would have 2 PG, 2 SG, 2 SF, 3 PF, and 1 C.  And, if you just have McRoberts play C instead of PF, then it becomes perfectly balanced.

I'll quickly go through my likes and dislikes of the roster by position.
PG is only iffy to okay, but I don't really know of a lot of other options where it can be improved.
SG stinks, I don't really know where to grab a good one, but I'll look into it in FA.
SF is very young and a bit weak overall, but could be improving, I might stand pat here.
PF is okay, I don't like Biyombo and don't think he will play much, but Humphries is decentish.  The need to improve is partially here and I know of a good player to go after.
C is fair, with the chance to be very decent if Mullens can improve.  I'll stay with the status quo here.

FA moves
I am going to hope that the Pelicans do not offer their team option to Jason Smith.  And hence, the Hornets will pursue him heavily.  Hoopsworld says 2.5 million, but I'll go ahead and say 3.5 million to Smith for 4 years.  (I'm not certain now as to whether or not Smith was a semi-free agent, because I can't seem to find a news article on it, but since this is all already down, I'll go ahead and keep it.)

For Martell Webster it says 1.7 for last year, I'll say 3.5 for 4 years.. (Yeah, I kind of keep getting stuck on that.) And I forget if you can even offer 4 year straight up options.. If not, then just assume these are 4th year player options.  [In realityville the Wizards signed him to a 4 year 22 million dollar salary.. So, I think the Hornets offer would have needed to be more in the 5.5 to 6 million a year range.]

The two previous players would probably not entirely mind getting paid to join a losing origination, since they have kind of been used to losing in the NBA.  (No offense meant to them.)  However, here comes a more delicate and less realistic scenario..
Namely, Kyle Korver coming to Charlotte.  I wouldn't be surprised if he wants to play on a winner, but for the sake of this scenario I'll just offer him a little more than the average team, and then say he accepts it.  His previous contract was 5 million per year for three years, I'll offer 6 million for 3 years with a player option on the 3rd year. [The actual offer that he accepted was effectively a 4 year 6 million dollars per year contract from the Hawks.  So the Hornets would have likely had to offer another million dollars or so to convince him to come to Charlotte and if his asking price would be in the 8 million dollar range, then the Hornets would have to pass on him and look elsewhere.  And Korver didn't end up going to a high-end winner, but basically just kept the status-quo of semi-winner.]

Two notes
The Bobcats selected Cody Zeller with the 4th pick in the NBA draft, so he will certainly be making a roster spot here as well.
And the other note is that there was a somewhat massive trade in which, among other things, Humphries went over to Boston.  But, I still think Gordon for him makes a decent amount of sense for the Celtics, so I'll keep it. 

Final roster to begin the 2013 season

SF   Adrien
PF   Biyombo
SG   Henderson
PF   Humphries
SF   Kidd-Gilchrist
SG  Korver
PF   McRoberts
C     Mullens
PG   Sessions
PF   Smith
SG   Taylor
PG   Walker
SF   Webster
C     Zeller

New breakdown..  2 PG, 3 SG, 3 SF, 4 PF, 2 C.  
PG no change.
SG Korver helps considerably, but it's still probably a little below average.
SF I expect Webster to help a fair amount. 
PF This position is now very decent.
C   Extremely young, could be a little weak, but the ceilings of potential for Zeller and Mullen are fairly high.

Projected starting 5 and average rotation minutes
PG   Walker           29 mpg
SG   Korver            26 
SF   Kidd-Gilchrist  27
PF   Humphries    18      (Thought about Smith, but I'll stick with Humphries in the starting lineup because of his rebounding.)
C     Zeller              27  

2nd wave
PG   Sessions       22 mpg
SG   Henderson     15       
SF   Webster         24     
PF   Smith             20      
C     Mullens       13     (Try Mullens for around half the season, if he never improves then McRoberts gets this spot and more minutes.)

Players to get in for around ten minutes a game
SG  Taylor               7
PF   McRoberts       12     

Deep end bench
Adrien and Biyombo will very rarely get into games, they could possibly be sent down to the D-League.  It is not entirely through any fault of their own, and I do think they both certainly have potential. (Which is why they're still on the team.)  Also Adrien could have some use as a rebounding SF somewhere.  Too early to give up on them, but they just don't make the team right now. They could become quality level starters at some point, but at this point both players need to polish their skills a little..  Okay, a lot.

Comparison to 2013 Bobcats  (And this was as of about 4 months ago)
On a neutral court I would favor this new Hornets lineup by around 7 (which is a very healthy margin) over the 2012-13 Bobcats.  

Starting 5 comparison
PG and SF Walker and Kidd-Gilchrist get about the same rotation minutes in both scenarios, so no real difference here.  PF Biyombo would get beaten fairly badly by Humphries. C Mullens or McRoberts would likely get beaten semi-solidly by Zeller.  Korver should beat Henderson by a decent margin as well.  My starting 5 should win this matchup fairly easily, with one slight caveat being that the Bobcats play their starters more often than I do.

While my minutes rotation projection is just the average, and as such at various times the starters will get quite a few more or quite a few less minutes, I still never plan on the players in my starting 5 to be getting more than 40 minutes, unless a game goes into OT.  Call me silly, but I think fatigue can have a negative effect on players.  I'd prefer to have 10 players give fairly intensive effort as opposed to 8 players (Even if the 8 are a lot 'better' than the 2 last players for the 10.) giving average to below average effort.

Bench comparison
This part becomes somewhat laughable, imho.  Sessions against Pargo, Sessions dominates.  Henderson against Gordon, I'll say basically a push.  Webster against Adrien, major win to Webster.  Smith against Thomas, semi-comfortable win to Smith.  My remaining players, Mullens, Taylor, and McRoberts, vs Taylor close contest, possibly another edge to the Hornets due to McRoberts, but I'm not certain.  

I know 7 points is kind of a large number on a neutral court, but still I'm almost tempted to think the line should be higher.  I would say that the Hornets are definitely a better team than the Bobcats.

I'll finish this hypothetical GMing in another post.

Saturday, October 5, 2013

MLB Review for 2013

Well, I am back from my month long hiatus.  I possibly should have made it longer, but so long as I'm fine with being sporadic with when I post stuff and it's not too big of a time drain, then I think that I can blog occasionally.



Credit to Operation Sports for my predicted standings for the MLB season on the right and credit to ESPN for the final regular season standings on the left.  

NL East (Predicted -7) actual -14  and overall miss average +/- per team in division (7)

Atlanta
Atlanta was fairly dominant at home, finishing with the best home record at 56-25.  +9

Miami 
On the bright side they ended the season with a no-hitter, on the downside they did reach 100 losses.  -2

New York

The Mets did finish in third place, but that doesn't mean a lot in the NL East.  +4

Philadelphia
Philly was disappointing again, I might need to pass on them next year.  -13

Washington
Some regression kept the Nats out of the playoffs.  -7

NL Central (+2)   +16  (6.4)

Chicago
While it was not a 100 loss season, it was basically another lost season for the Cubs. -4

Cincinnati
Cincinnati's prediction was the only prediction to be right on.  The Red's run differential had them as a much better team than the Pirates.  0

Milwaukee
A poor team at home and on the road.  -4

Pittsburgh
Not only a winning season for the Pirates, but a playoff-caliber team.  +17

St. Louis
Somehow the Cardinals keep churning out wins.  The Cards had the most impressive point differential in the Major Leagues.  +7

NL West (+6) -6  (2.8, extremely decent)
Arizona
Roster movement resulted in .500 play, which is better than the results that some teams get.  -1

Colorado
Better year than some expected, but still a poor team overall.  -2

Los Angeles
At least this LA team decided to go on a nice run in the second half of the season.  The Dodgers were certainly helped by Yasiel Puig's emergence as a superstar type player.  -2

San Diego
Slight improvement from last season, but still a fairly bad team.  +1

San Francisco

The defending WS Champs lost a lot of ground and were 10 games below .500.  -8


AL East (+15) +27 (8.8)

Baltimore
Regression occurred to a certain extent, but not quite as much as I expected.  +5

Boston
While I had Boston at around .500, which was a better record than what some 'experts' thought, I don't know if anyone saw the Red Sox emerging as the best team in the Major Leagues, I know I did not see that coming.  +18

New York
The Mets suffered a bit from injuries, but managed to be somewhat relevant to the playoff race.  -2


Tampa Bay
Year after year the Rasy somehow get it done.  +5

Toronto
While injuries were a bit of a factor, they do not provide a very good excuse as to why Toronto remaining at the bottom of the AL East.  -14

AL Central (-9) actual -5 (10.4, very bad)
Cleveland
Cleveland overachieved and nearly ended up catching the Tigers for the division crown.  +19

Detroit

The defending AL champions struggled a little against a subpar division.  +8

Kansas City
While the Royal's predicted record was certainly within the margin of error, the division didn't end up being as weak as I hoped it would be and hence the Royals were kept out of the playoffs yet again.  But, they did make some progress this year and it was their best season in more than two decades. (1989 to be more precise.)  +1

Minnesota
The Twinkies didn't do very much either at home or on the road.  -7

White Sox
The White Sox nearly lost 100 games.  -17

AL West (-7) -18 (7.4)
Houston
Stompings were abundant and the Astros weren't all that competitive in the AL.  -1

Los Angeles
The second time wasn't the charm, the Angels disappointed again.  -17

Oakland
The A's were only two games away from leading the league in wins.  They were a very decent team with a low payroll.  The Tampa Bay Rays -- The West Coast Version, or vice versa..  +11

Seattle
The Mariners were still a poor hitting team.  -6

Texas
They might not have won the division, but the Rangers did still at least make the playoff before the playoffs.  +2

Just based off of my predictions it appears that the NL was again very static, while there was some more variance in the AL.  Average miss in the NL was 5.4, average miss in the AL was 8.9.  Overall average miss was 7.1 games.  A fairly large improvement (proportionally) from a year ago, which was 9.5, but I don't really think that this year saw as many surprise teams as last season.  This season the main surprising team was mostly just the Red Sox.  Last season there were probably at least the O's, A's, and Marlins who were surprising teams.