Wednesday, October 29, 2014

NBA Preview 2014

NBA
Eastern Conference
Atlantic
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors' have a slightly worse team than last year's team, but I expect their record to be similar to last season's record. 48-34 #3

Brooklyn Nets
Coach Hollins should provide some decent coaching and the Nets should be a more competent team this season. 44-38 #5

New York Knicks
Jose Calderon is a great pickup, but losing Tyson Chandler is a tough price to pay for the acquisition. While Coach Fisher should be a decent HC he has little to work with on this team, unless he is actually able to convince the players on the team that the first available semi-open/semi-contested shot is not actually a good shot. 34-48 #11

Boston Celtics
If I would be Coach Stevens then I would totally start Jared Sullinger and the four PGs on the team. Or not. The Celtics' roster is somewhat limited, but I expect Coach Stevens to get more out of his team than any other coach in the league, except for Popovich and possibly Thibodeau. 38-44 #9

Philadelphia 76ers
Given their roster, I assume that the 76ers will be attempting to tank once again this season. When the 76ers actually get some decent players then they will have a good coaching scheme to go along with the players. 16-66 #16

Central
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers lost one of their best players, and one of their most erratic, and replaced him with... Rodney Stuckey? Alrighty then. I suppose that their GM is not trying very hard to be GM of the year. 46-36 #4

Chicago Bulls
I have never been a huge fan of D-Rose's game, but that is just me. Maybe the former MVP (MVP due to voter fatigue...) will surprise me and have a career year whilst leading the Bulls to a 55+ win season. I highly doubt that will happen, however. 50-32 #2

Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers made the biggest offseason acquisition of the season and acquired James from the Heat. While James is pushing 30+ years old and may have his best years behind him, I still think that he has some value for the Cavaliers. He made a fairly incredible 52% of his threes last season. If James can bring the same type of threat to the Cavaliers this season, then he should be able to secure a handful of minutes each game.
       Oh, besides James Jones, the Cavaliers also happened to add his Miami teammate, LeBron James. While I do not view LeBron as being some sort of great guy for going back to Cleveland, I had no problem with him leaving Cleveland in the first place. The trio of Irving, James (LeBron that is), and Love should be a fairly terrific, terrifying trio, however, I do think that the rest of the roster for the Cavaliers is rather lacking. Despite their weak bench and their early seasons struggle with cohesion, the tenacious trio should be able to lead the Cavaliers to a top three record in the NBA and the best record in the weak Eastern Conference. A lot of the team's early cohesion will depend on coaching and I do not really know what to expect of the Cav's coach, however, I expect the NBA's best player to lead the Cavs back into relevance and even dominance at times, considering that this will be by far the best supporting cast that LeBron has ever had in Cleveland. 57-25 #1

Detroit Pistons
When your starting PG is a player
who attempts nearly 13 shots a game
and makes only 42% of them, you
may want to implement a new strategy.
The Pistons have an interesting roster mostly filled with players who cannot shoot the ball well beyond 18 feet. Sadly the Pistons do not seem to realize that the NBA actually has this weird line thing about two dozen feet away from the hoop that makes a sort of semi-circle around the hoop, and amazingly if a player makes a shot while shooting behind the line then it is scored as if they made a normal bucket plus half another normal bucket. Someone should probably tell the Pistons this information.. 33-49 #12 

Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks' management did a great job of dumping all of their players and trading for great players who are stuck on deep teams' rosters like Kosta Koufos. Wait..? That didn't happen? I suppose that incompetence breeds further incompetence. Other than possibly Sanders, Mayo, and Wolters this roster is filled with backups. The roster is especially full of backups who like to shoot high quantities of low quality shots, which is of course always a formula for success. Always. Technically the Bucks should have some regression to the mean, but I just don't see it happening with their roster, even considering that the Bucks get to play in the crummy Eastern Conference. 16-66 #15

Southeast
Miami Heat
The Heat have an interesting roster. Losing the best player in basketball will be a huge loss, but I still think that the Heat have an EC playoff-caliber roster. 44-38 #7

Washington Wizards
As long as players like John Wall do not suffer from injuries longer than half the season, then I think that the Wizards will be in contention for a top 4 playoff seed. 44-38 #6

Charlotte Hornets
So, the Bobcats think that pairing players such as Al Jefferson, Gary Neal, and Lance Stephenson is a good idea? Alrighty then. Stephenson has some upside potential, and the Hornets sort of stole him, but he's not a player to build around as your locker room leader. 37-45 #10

Atlanta Hawks
Sefolosha is a nice piece for the Hawks and I think he is a decent player. If the Hawks would be in the WC, then they would only have around a 20% chance of making the playoffs, but as it is they probably have slightly above even odds of making it. 41-41 #8

Orlando Magic
The Magic added some leadership with a few veteran players, but are not really an appreciably better team from last year, except for getting another year of experience for their younger players. 22-60 #14

Western Conference
Northwest
Oklahoma City Thunder
Anthony Morrow is a decent pickup, but losing Sefolosha to the Hawks and Durant to a half-dozen weeks or so injury will hurt the Thunder. It will be interesting to see just how good the Thunder are without KD and with a Russell led team. Let the fun begin. 50-32 #6

Portland Trail Blazers
Portland may have had the least player movement in the offseason, which I view in this case as partially a bad thing, but the Trail Blazers should still be decent. 49-33 #7

Minnesota Timberwolves
Losing K-Love is a big loss for the T-Wolves, but they still have a very competent team. Dieng should show some improvement. 38-44 #10

Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets improved a little bit in the offseason. 40-42 #9

Utah Jazz
The Jazz managed to replace poor players with other poor players. Meanwhile, Jeremy Evans will likely continue to languish on the bench this season. Such a great job by management. 29-53 #15

Pacific
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers should have an improved team this season as compared to last season, which is slightly scary. There may happen to be a regular season Western Conference champion that will not reside in San Antonio this season. 58-23 #1

Golden State Warriors
While the Warriors have a good coach, I think that their old coach happened to be better.. Good old politics. Despite Curry's continued excellence, I expect the Warriors to have some struggles, some of which problems due to injuries. 45-37 #8

Phoenix Suns
Will the Suns' success carry over to this season? No, I expect that last season was a one year aberration. 39-43 #11

Sacramento Kings
When will the Kings be able to make the transition to playoff-caliber team? Answer: When they move to the East Coast. Jokes aside, the Kings will likely be struggling in the Western Conference once again this season. 31-51 #14

Los Angeles Lakers
I think that Jeremy Lin is an above average player... After that the roster for the Lakers gets fairly weak. Other than Lin I fail to see where a decent amount of quality attempts will come from. Possibly Kobe Bryant will see the error of his ways and stop firing off highly contested long attempts? Or not. 32-50 #13

Southwest
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs surely cannot be as good this season as they were last season, right? Riiight. Considering that the Spurs were 46-9 when Kawhi Leonard was healthy, I kind of doubt that they will take a major step back. Very little offseason movement for the Spurs, but in this case I think that is certainly a fine decision. 58-23 #2

Houston Rockets
The Rockets kind of had a horrible offseason. They lost Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik, and Chandler Parsons, while only really picking up Jason Terry. A small step back for the Rockets, despite having the fearsome threesome of Beverly, Harden, and Howard. 51-31 #4

Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies may actually happen to be the team that I am most excited to watch this season. The main focal points for me to watch are what Coach Joerger lines up for the Grizzlies and to see Koufos play some decent minutes. 52-30 #3

Dallas Mavericks
Parsons makes nearly twice the amount of money that Nowitzki makes.. That totally makes sense. I am a much bigger fan of Parsons than most people are, however, I don't know if he will be worth the 14 million dollar salary the Mavericks will be paying him this season. Still though, he should provide their team with some good minutes. 51-31 #5

New Orleans Hornets
I think that Omer Asik is better than most people give him credit for, possibly this will be the year that the Pelicans finally hit the next level. 37-45 #12

Spread Picks Under: Knicks under 41, Hornets under 45, Pelicans under 43, Thunder under 57 
Spread Picks Over: Celtics over 26.5, Pacers over 33, Timberwolves over 26
Overall Eastern Conference Record: 570-660
Overall Western Conference Record: 660-570

Sunday, October 26, 2014

MLB Review 2014
























AL East (Predicted +20) actual result 6, overall miss average +/- per team in division 10 
The Orioles were not a fluky team this season and put up the fourth best run differential in baseball.  The Yankees and Blue Jays both had somewhat weak rotations.  The Rays decided that now was a good time to actually not overachieve for the first season in quite awhile.  Meanwhile the Red Sox fell back from the heights of the WS to the depths of the AL East.

AL Central (-1) 2, 2.6
Once again I had fairly accurate predictions for the AL Central.  The Royals and Tigers both battled for the division crown, while the Indians, White Sox, and Twins all aligned themselves behind the front-runners.





















AL West (-16) 5, 11.3 
The Angels finally decided to put everything together because.. Statistics?  The Athletics and Mariners each had very decent seasons.  The Astros managed to not lose 100 games, so that was slightly impressive.  Finally, the Rangers had a disastrous season and weren't too far from losing 100 games.

NL East (-17) -1, 7.6
Washington ran away from their crummy division.  While the Braves, Phillies, Mets, and Marlins were all bogged down in varying levels of mediocrity.



















NL Central (6) 4, 6.4
St. Louis and Pittsburgh remained the class of the NL Central.  Milwaukee and Cincinnati had mediocre seasons, and the Cubs remained one of the worst teams in MLB.

NL West (8) -16, 9.6
The Dodgers' high payroll came through again with the division title.  San Francisco managed a solid season, while the Padres, Rockies, and Diamondbacks all struggled.

Average miss in the AL was 7.97 games, NL 7.87, and overall in MLB 7.92.