NBA Pacific Division Team Breakdown 2012

The tables that occur in this post are my subjective opinions on a couple different players, based mostly on my own stats and eyeballs.  Though, for right now, about the only thing my stats currently do (though I've been doing a little defense statting lately) is determine the grade for shot selection (shot selection - If the shot a player is taking [determined by me] is a quality shot or non-quality shot).  A lot of the words are based on data from 82games.com.  While the site could be updated to look like it's in the 2000's (though it at least does provides a fairly clean look), it does provide some great innovative and unique data.  If you haven't already checked it out before, and you're an NBA fan I would highly recommend visiting it.

First I talk about the positions on the team PER, then I usually talk about the production of players, then  the +- off court/on court value of players, then if there are any Simple Rating numbers that stand out, and then finally I post a lineup that I think should be the starting lineup for that team based mostly on what the numbers say should start.  And while I will say it at plenty of other times, unless a lineup is in the top 5 for minutes played, it will almost never have anywhere close to enough data to be accurately predictive of the actual lineup's future performances.

Everything but shot selection and shooting should be fairly obvious.  Shooting is a grade on whether or not a player has good form, and then whether or not the opposing team is worried when a player takes a jump shot that is within that players range.  And while I was mostly grading starters or key players, I think I was often too lenient in my grades, so a C+ or B- is probably closer to the true average then a C. 

LA Clippers	Driving	Decision  Making	Shot Selection	Shooting (form.partially)	Defense	Overall Rating
Billups	C+	B+	B	B-	B+	B
Crawford	B+	B-	B-	B+	B-	B
Griffin	B+	B+	A-	B	B	B+
Paul	A	A+	A-  80%	B+	C+	A-

The PG position (Chris Paul mostly, obviously) blows away PER competition, but everyone else is remarkably average.

In extremely limited playing time Billups has blown away the competition.  As previously mentioned, Paul dominates and Griffin and Crawford boast post decent numbers.  Bledsoe has a somewhat surprisingly high production rate, +6.1.  Also a little bit surprised that Jordan is a + as well, (2.4.)

The Clippers are 12-7 without Paul, 32-13 with.  CP3 is an impressive +10.1 on the court and +8.2 net.  Odom also gets a positive, +4.4. Bledsoe disappoints quite a bit and posts a -7.0.

In my first projected lineup I go with a fairly big lineup of Paul, Griffin, Jordan, Odom, and Butler.  It wasn't there.

Since they didn’t have my first preferred lineup I’ll go with Paul, Butler, either Barnes or Crawford, Griffin, and Odom. 

Well the Barnes lineup didn’t exist, but a lineup with Crawford did, and it came in at #14 overall.  It was #2 in production when comparing it to the top 10 lineups.  

The only lineup it is behind is the #1 lineup, which somehow has Billups in it.  I couldn’t consider him because he had only played 6% minutes on the season.

The Clippers outscore their opponents in the time frame when my starting lineup gets any sort of playing time, 12 out of 14 times.  12-2.  Which happens to be miles better than the runner-up.  So while I don't know the quality of competition that lineup faced, it still provides some more validation for my choice.

Golden State	Driving	Decision  Making	Shot Selection	Shooting (form.partially)	Defense	Overall Rating
Barnes	B	B-	B-	B	B-	B-
Curry	B	B+	B-	A	B-	B
Jack	B+	B	C	B-	C+	B-
Landry	B	C+	C+	C+	C	C+
Lee	C+	B	B+	B+	C+	B
Thompson	B-	C-	D+	B-	C+	C

Golden State Warriors

Don't have a lot to say about Golden State.

Average to below average team via PER.

Thompson does a little better job in +- then expected and a little worse in production.

I was a bit surprised by Jack's production value.  He had a +5.2 production.

The lineup I got, Curry, Jack, Barnes, Landry, Lee seemed pretty straight forward to me, but it only ranked #6 for minutes.  In productivity it takes 3^rd place out of the top 10.  It tied for 2^nd place on offensive productivity, scoring 116 a game, but it struggled on the defensive end giving up 108 per 100 possessions.

LA Lakers	Driving	Decision M	Shot S	Shooting	Defense	Overall
Artest	C+	C	C-  60%	C+	B+	C+
Bryant	B+	B+	D+ 53%	B+	C+	B
Clark	D+	C	B+	C	C+	C+
Gasol	C+	B+	A- 82%	B	B	B
Howard	C	B+	A-	D	A-	B+
Jamison	C+	B	B	C+	C+	B-
Nash	B+	A-	A-	A-	C-	B+

LA Lakers

First of all I want to talk about the table.  Tables are fascinating and all, but I don't really want to read about them.  No, not a furniture kind of table..  A data table.  I would like to give Howard an A-, but the way my grades are set up he's forced to take an average and below average grade which killed his overall grade.

According to my somewhat subjective analysis found above, the best offense for the Lakers involves first Nash, then either Gasol or Howard.  Then it's Bryant, Jamison, and finally Artest/Clark.  

Meanwhile in the real world, it goes more like Bryant, Artest, Howard, (Gasol), Nash, Clark, Jamison.   So while the lineup isn't quite flipped on it's head, it is fairly close.  I'm one of those silly people that thinks that Kobe shooting 24 shots to score 30 points, isn't as good an offense as (say) Howard scoring 20 on 13 shot attempts.

Random sidenote.  I've never been on the Lakers won't make the playoff bandwagon... But, I was probably too far on the other end of the spectrum at the beginning of the season..  Then they hired coach D'antoni instead of Phil Jackson.... Yeah.  Anyways..

On the production chart it has Bryant and Howard dominating, while everyone else is not holding up their end of the bargain.  I’m a little bit surprised that Kobe has a +3.6 on/court /offcourt rating, while Nash is a -2.3.  And then I’m very shocked that ‘World Peace’ has a 10.4!  It’s almost like someone is playing a joke with that number.

Predicted best lineup (Gasol has had the injury bug this year, so I can't use him)

Nash, Meeks, Bryant, Artest, and Howard

15^th most used lineup, but second best +-.  And the best lineup has Gasol and even a smaller minute sample size.  Another effective lineup is replacing Meeks with Jamison.

Phoenix	Driving	Decision  Making	Shot Selection	Shooting form(partially)	Defense	Overall Rating
Beasley	C-	D+	D-	C-	C	C-
Dragic	B+	C+	B-	C+	D	C+
Dudley	C+	C	C	C+	A-	C+
Gortat	D	C+	B	B-	B	C+
Markieff	D	D-	D	C-	D-	D

Phoenix

eFG on jumpers is 5% worse than opponents, which is a very bothersome statistic considering 70% of Phoenix’s shots come on jumpers,

Other than the PF position, the Suns didn’t get beaten quite as badly on PER as I thought they would.

Beasley, Markieff Moris, and Johnson all did what I expected they would for the Simple Rating..  Which to put it bluntly... is to stink. 

Shannon Brown hasn’t been playing recently, not exactly sure why not.

Tucker and Dudley had vaguely high (on court/off court) +-‘s at 5.8 and 8.3 respectively.  

Want an obviously condemning statistic for the Suns?  Not a single player has a positive +-.  Ouch. 

My predicted best lineup was,

Telfair/Dragic, Tucker, Dudley, Scola, Gortat

I had to swap Dragic in for Telfair, but otherwise my predicted ‘best lineup’ turned out to be the #1 used lineup… Which in this case isn’t necessarily a good thing.  This might be the first time (I'm working on other divisions as well right now.. That's why that sounds random.) I haven’t picked a lineup with a positive +-. Overall per 100 possessions they score 100 and give up 106. So definitely not good for an average team, but for Phoenix it’s basically just their average. 

A quick rant on Johnson and Beasley.

Again, I mean no offense to any of Phoenix’s players, but right now they seem to be a bunch of vagabonds. According to the ‘advanced stats’ on 82games.com and my own eyeballs… To be blunt, Beasley, and Johnson should not be employed in the NBA.  And technically if you wanted to just go on one season, then Markieff should be excommunicated from the NBA as well.  Though I’m certainly willing to give Markieff a pass since he’s only a rookie….  Also Beasley is 24 and Johnson 25, so both are extremely young players..  However, many other players have either never been given the chance or given much less of a chance to prove themselves then the chances Beasley and Johnson have been given.

      Both of the guys regularly jack up incredibly NQ shots.  However, both play about average defense, and have shown occasional flashes of brilliance on the offensive end..  It’s just that right now those flashes have come nowhere near enough to justify the time these two have been given on an NBA court.  Honestly I still think that both players have the talent and skill set to be starters in the NBA, but in their short careers so far, they have done effectively nothing to prove that they will actually apply themselves.

Sacramento	Driving	Decision  Making	Shot Selection	Shooting (form.partially)	Defense	Overall Rating
Thomas	B+	B+	B+	B	C-	B
Evans	B	B	B-	B+	C+	B
Thompson	C+	C+	B-	B-	C+	C+
Cousins	B+	B-	C-	C+	B-	B-
Fredette	D+	B-	C	B-	C-	C

Sacremento Kings

They actually get inside 4% more than opponents. But, they shoot about 5% worse than opponents (eFG).

Destroyed at the PG, SF, and PF positions per PER.

While Robinson was here he was destroyed via Production…  Though that still doesn’t mean the Kings should have traded him.. Thank you Maloofs..

Thornton and Johnson have really horrible +- on court/off court.

Salmons +9.2 and Thomas +7.0 provide nice boosts for +- relative to the rest of their team..  Though the numbers still aren’t large enough that they can actaully play as a +.

Another team with all negatives for their player's +-.

First attempted lineup was 

Thomas, Fredette (maybe Salmons?), Cousins, Evans, Thompson

Fredette didn’t exist in many lineups, so I replaced him with Salmons…

When I’m creating these line-ups I’m trying to get the best possible lineup…  This one didn’t go very well. 

Somehow, I actually ended up getting the #1 overall used lineup (again)..  So at least the data provides some real context.  When comparing its production as compared to the top 10, it was only #6.  It ties with Phoenix as the worst lineup I’ve put out there.  Per 100 possessions the lineup is outscored 114 to 108.  Though oddly (and pathetically) enough, that is still better then their season average.

If you actually read all of this post and took time to understand it, then hey, thanks.  Hope you enjoyed the post, feel free to comment and subscribe.