Eastern Conference
1 Miami vs 8 Milwaukee
Predicted Miami in 4, actual result was Miami in 4
To sum-up this series, I'll describe a play. (though not very well, since I can't remember who the Buck's player was) Lebron is guarding a random Buck player and he purposely lets the Buck player drive past him to attempt the easy layup.. Then Lebron leaps and gets one of his 'trademark' blocks. As expected this series might as well have been called after game 1. The Heat didn't mess around with the Bucks, they simply took care of business. I don't really know if there was a lot to predict this series, so B.
2 New York vs 7 Boston
Predicted NY in 6, actual result was NY in 6
Who was the bright person who decided that it was a good idea to wear 'funeral black' to the Celtics game 5? And even more importantly (in my book), why did no one stop the Knicks from wearing black? I don't really think it's completely classless or anything like that, I just don't think it's a very bright idea to give your opponent more motivation. The funny thing is, I think the Celtics would have won the series if it had gone back to NY. However, that did not happen so my prediction came through. A little more variation for this prediction then the Heat series, so I'll get an A-.
3 Indiana vs 6 Atlanta
Predicted Indiana in 5, actual result was Indiana in 6
Indiana did win some games convincingly.. But, some small credit should go to the Hawks for showing up in their first two home games. Didn't get to watch any of this series. B-
4 Brooklyn vs 5 Chicago
Predicted Brooklyn in 6, actual result was Chicago in 7
Probably would have been correct about this series, if not for Nate Robinson deciding to have one of the most impressive 4th quarters in the history of the NBA. I thought that the Nets were playing decent defense on him, he was just hitting extremely difficult shots. In the end the Bulls end up getting the chance to get stomped by the Heat. This was a very competitive series, as evidenced by this being the only series in the first round that went 7 games C-
Western Conference
1 Oklahoma City vs 8 Houston
I said OKC in 5, actual result was OKC in 6
I didn't watch very much of this series. I caught the 4th quarter of game 6, and honestly, the Thunder looked extremely good.. (though it was probably just bad timing on my part, since they dominated that quarter) Coach Brooks was actually not playing Perkins (stunner!), but instead played Collison. So that was nice to see. Also, while I wasn't completely in favor of it, (and possibly I am mistaken) but it felt like Coach Brooks had the same lineup in for almost the entire 4th quarter. Almost the entire 4th quarter. Even in the playoffs, that is not often done. I didn't really mind the move (or lack there of), since he had a good lineup on the court: Durant, Jackson, Fisher, Collison, and either Martin or Ibaka.
Here's my semi-obligatory anti-Perkins comment.. In the pieces of the other games I saw, Perkins was generally in.. And to say he was confused on defense would be quite a compliment. I don't understand why he gets any more than 10 minutes of playing time a game. Collison consistently outperforms him basic and advanced stat-wise, it's more or less a tie on offense, defensively he obliterates Perkins. If Collison has a slight defensive flaw it's that he helps too much.. Which isn't really much of a flaw in my book. And finally, eye-ball wise, it is again no contest. It'll be interesting to keep tabs on each person's playing time through the playoffs.
In the 4th quarter I saw last night, Durant dominated the ball. Probably at least 60% of possessions were facilitated in some way by him. It was fun to watch. I like iso plays even less than the next guy.. But.. I can occasionally make slight exceptions. The, off the top of my head, list of players who can occasionally have an isolation play called for them and I would generally be somewhat fine with it are as follows: Kevin Durant, James Harden, Lebron James, Chris Paul, and Tony Parker. Other players can occasionally make the list if they're hot, but in general, besides a serious mismatch like Carmelo Anthony vs Jason Terry, no team should run isolation plays.. They simply are not as effective as other offensive plays and schemes.
Kind of got side tracked there.. Anyways, in my opinion KD dominating the ball and him being the Point Foward at times is certainly not a bad thing. No offense to Russell Westbrook, but I think that the Thunder are in some ways a better team without him.. (though his fire/competition, and speed are great attributes. He just takes way too many low quality looks. If he wants to change that, and if he could become an efficient player, something like a slightly better version of Ty Lawson, then I would be a supporter of Westbrook.) But, didn't the Thunder just struggle with the Rockets some, and now they're somewhat likely to not reach the NBA Finals? Technically, yes.. However, I'm going to crazily guess that the playoffs are not the best time to lose one of your top players, and then attempt to figure out the new rotation you are going to use.
As a semi-Rockets fan, I was vaguely happy with the way they played. I thought that Harden should have driven more. Though, if Harden would drive 30 times in a game, I still might say that he should have driven more.. I think that him driving is an extremely efficient offense for Houston. And advanced stats, and my personal stats, say that his PPP (points per possession) is effectively off the charts. He tends to take quality shot after quality shot. Oh, he also occasionally flops and nets two free throws. I don't really understand how some 'experts' thought that he wouldn't even be a quality starter (much less All-Star to MVP type player) in Houston. Houston is in a very good situation with Harden, Lin, Parson, etc. They should be a force to be reckoned with in a few years.
I think my prediction would have been accurate if Westbrook had not been injured, (though the Thunder weren't completely dominating when he was there) however, the Thunder were forced to redesign their straightforward one-two attack of Westbrook pick and rolls, and KD ISO's and spot ups into a one dimensional attack of KD ISO's and spot ups.. Just kidding.. kind of.
While I think that Reggie Jackson is a very decent player, I do not think he is on the level of Westbrook, so I think that the Thunder have been misusing Jackson a little bit, by partially trying to plug him in as Westbrook version 0.8, instead of plugging him into his own system.
Another sidenote here.. Derek Fisher was looking like he was a decade younger last night. He hit a bunch of open look threes. Which will be a very important factor for the Thunder in the series to come. Also, by the end of this playoff run, at least as I expect the playoffs to go, (if I saw the stat correctly) then Fisher will become the person with the most NBA playoff experience in the history of the league. Some very impressive stuff right there. I suppose I should move onto some much quick recaps of other series.. B- for this series.
2 San Antonio vs 7 LAL
I predicted Lakers in 6, actual result was Spurs in an extremely convincing 4.
Goodnight.. What was I thinking? I know I was forcing the upset a little, but I didn't think it would be that bad. Even my stats read was a little off, because I said that they said that the Spurs would win in 5. In the first round I tended to watch the games that I was either interested in from an entertainment and fan perspective such as OKC vs Houston, or the main games I watched were the games where I was concerned about the teams I picked (from the start). So I mostly watched the Lakers series and the Denver series..
For future series I think I will try and take more heavily into account each team's best player, and then also (/especially) each team's coach. How was I trying to see that Coach D'antoni beat Coach Popovich.. ? I don't know.. In hindsight it doesn't make sense. I have a little more to talk about in regards to this series, which I plan on posting within a day or two. Overall, this was a very naive pick by me. Silly PU or PURST Spurs. F+.
3 Denver vs 6 Golden State
Predicted Denver in 4, actual result was GS in 6
Now on to my other ugly series. Another naively dumb pick by me. I was forgetting things.. In hindsight. Denver has a great record @home in the regular season in part because the high altitude is hard to adjust to for other teams in just a day or two. However in the playoffs rounds 1-3, the one time when a lower seeded team gets to stay for a while.. As in game two. So GS got to adjust to the altitude by that time and by 'pure coincidence'.. GS won game two. Which in turn, caused the snowball effect that beat Denver.
Not meaning to be disrespectful to Coach Karl, since I'm just some random (theoretical) couch sitting NBA fan, but I did not like how he tried to guard Curry. Or as it looked to me, how he tried to give Curry looks at threes.
When facing a shooter like Curry, (though, really there aren't any other shooters like/as good as Curry) I fail to see the need to constantly have your players go under the pick and roll.. Yet that is what Denver kept doing. Imho, a quick hard hedge by both defenders is what should occur, then the post should recover to his man or whomever he now guards. Worst case scenario, Curry makes a nice pass, and the Warriors are playing 4 on 3. In my opinion that is a much improved situation as opposed to going under the screen and letting Curry who shot 62% (adjusted between three points and two points) to hoist a nothing but net three.
I was in and out of this game, but in game 6 I believe that I heard one of the play by play announcers say that Iguodala was on Curry in game 5, and that Curry had a tough game. No kidding? Who would have guessed.. It's too bad no one ever thought about that before the series.. No wait, I thought of that, and I wouldn't be surprised if some other folks thought of that as well.
Height is, kind of obviously, something which can not be taught. And it is a decent advantage in basketball to have a team which is on average two inches taller than the opponent.
Even though Curry isn't very muscular, and kind of looks like your average guy off the street, I don't think that you can simply out physical / bully him into having a poor game and/or series. I think the best tactic is to smother him. Put a taller defender on him to affect his shot attempt's arc. Will that defender occasionally get beaten off the dribble more than the 'typical' defender of Curry, and Curry get a few relatively easy looks at the hoop? Probably, yes. But that is a small price to pay for taking away many of Curry's 62% shot attempts.
I was impressed with Curry's arsenal of finger roll shots/floaters. I learned around two main things from this series The first thing is that coaching matters.. Coaching matters.. I really need to make sure I understand that point in the future. Even though I think I understand that, I don't think I am applying it heavily enough.
The second is that trends tend to tell the truth. (there were a lot of t's in that sentence) So if you want to abbreviate that, then it's TTTTTT.
I decided to ignore Coach Karl and the Nugget's abysmal performance in the playoffs over the last decade. Which burned me just a little. Curry was (per usual) very impressive in this series. While my original prediction was, in hindsight, a bit silly, overall, Denver easily could have won this series in 5 with a couple different bounces of the ball. D
LAC vs Memphis
I said LAC in 7 while the actual result was Memphis in 6.
I don't have a lot to say about this series. Memphis stole a game on the road and the Clipper's offense struggled. D+
Overall first round grade, C. I am kind of surprised I even got a C, after the three horrible West series. While there wasn't a ton to predict, I was only off by a total of 2 games in the East. I'm not certain I am doing this correctly, but I think I was off by a total of 8.5 games in the West.
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