In this post I will write about some of my theoretical picks for this week in the NFL. If this goes fairly well, then this might be the only one I do for this season, but if it goes poorly, then I'll probably do another. First I'll mention a couple games where I would prefer to not pick a side and some quick reasoning as to why I'm staying away. Then, I go through my picks for favorites and underdogs and again go through with a quick reason or so as to why I like one side or the other.
Non Picks
Rams-Bears I don't like either side (lean slightly towards the Rams
though).
Panthers-Dolphins, I would lean towards Panthers, but I
really dislike the line and the general positions for the Panthers and the
Dolphins.
Texans-Jags Slight lean towards a Texans
blowout, but the line would be way too many points, especially considering the Texans
have won all of two games. (And on principle it'd be close to an impossible play as well.)
Colts-Cards Another oddly bad line
for the Colts from Vegas.. I keep picking against the Colts and it hasn't worked out very well, I also don't believe in the Cards at all.. But, I would
lean towards them anyways.
Only 4 games would be non picks this week, normally it would be a lot higher, but I felt decently about a lot of the games.
And just for fun, two neutral field game-lines for the four teams on a bye this week.
Buffalo vs Cincinnati Cincy by 4.5 (or 4. They did already play each other this year and the line was a lot higher for the Bengals and they were even on the road, but I think that it was a bad line then and would still be so now.)
Philadelphia vs Seattle Seattle by 5 (This would be an interesting line, Seattle has been a little bit ugly lately, but they do still only have one loss, while the Eagles have been very decent with Foles at QB.)
Actual Picks
Favorites
Ravens-Jets Poor teams, but the Jets are quarterbacked even more poorly than the Joe Fluko Flacco led Ravens.
Packers-Vikings, Flynn starting would make this a relative lock, but, even with Tolzien starting, since the Vikings just played the Seahawks last week, this game should be a fairly safe favorite play as well.
Raiders-Titans Vegas, or really the public, has really disliked the Raiders all season. Pryor is a better QB, in my opinion, but McGloin should be able to overcome the poor Titans, the Raiders only laying 1.5 points to the Titans is kind of a joke.
49ers-Redskins This might be my weakest leaning. The line does actually favor the Redskins and laying 5 and a half points is effectively never a great idea in the NFL, but the 49ers are the better team almost across the board, and, even if they are flying across the country, I do not think that they will lose 3 in a row and will at least attempt to lay it on Washington, but that 5.5 is a little iffy.
I don't like laying points, but I think it made sense in these four games.
Underdogs
Falcons-Saints The line is fine, this should possibly be a stay away game, but I've been on the Falcon's
side all season long, and it has worked out fairly well.. Or not. Might as well continue the silliness.
Buccaneers-Lions Imho, the
line is 3 points too high, even if the Lions are the better team and @home, I have the Bucs in the straight-up upset, so getting almost 10 points is
a gift.
Chargers-Chiefs The line is actually low, but at the same
time the Chargers are a fairly evenly matched team with the Chiefs,
straight-up upset here as well.
Patriots-Broncos Brady is
an underdog at home for the first time in an extremely long time..
I doubt that situation is going to end well. I don't like the Patriots coming off a
physical, close contest with the Panthers on Monday Night, but the
Broncos Sunday Night Game should partially neutralize that.
Cowboys-Giants The better team is getting almost a field
goal.. Where's the downside? Romo is such a decent quarterback, I'm not positive where I would peg him at this instant, so I will just say that he is certainly a top 8 QB, yet he generally gets the respect of a mid-level, somewhere in the 10-20 range, QB.
Steelers-Browns I added this game late, but I am fine with picking the Steelers as well. Similar situation to the Cowboys-Giants game, and in this game there is that little thing of Roethlisberger on one side of the field and Campbell on the other.
In all of these underdog picks, except the Buccaneers game, I think that the underdog has at least a 45% chance of pulling the straight-up upset, and I actually picked all of those underdog picks straight-up anyways. Since a person would be getting the added bonus of having a buffer zone of points, that is one of the reasons why picking an underdog is almost always better than picking a favorite.
