| Team | Wins | Actual Line | Difference | Likely B Case | Most Likely | Likely W Case | Favored | ||||
| NE Pats | 9.9 | 11 | -1.1 | 13-3 | 12-4, | 10-6, | 11-5-0, | ||||
| NY Jets | 6.4 | 7 | -0.6 | 8-8, | 7-9, | 4-12, | 2-7-7, | ||||
| Miami | 6.8 | 7.5 | -0.7 | 9-7, | 7-9, | 4-12, | 4-6-6, | ||||
| Buffalo | 6.7 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 8-8, | 6-10, | 4-12, | 0-6-10, | ||||
| Houston | 8.3 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 11-5, | 7-9, | 5-11, | 3-8-5, | ||||
| Tennessee | 8.3 | 7 | 1.3 | 10-6, | 7-9, | 5-11, | 0-9-7, | ||||
| Indy | 7.3 | 9.5 | -2.2 | 10-6, | 8-8, | 6-10, | 7-6-3, | ||||
| Jacksonville | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6-10, | 3-13, | 1-15, | 0-2-14 | ||||
| Pittsburgh | 9.3 | 8.5 | 0.8 | 12-4, | 10-6, | 8-8, | 8-6-2, | ||||
| Baltimore | 7.9 | 8.5 | -0.6 | 11-5, | 8-8, | 6-10, | 7-7-2, | ||||
| Cincy | 8.5 | 9 | -0.5 | 11-5, | 9-7, | 7-9, | 11-4-1, | ||||
| Cleveland | 8.3 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 10-6, | 7-9, | 5-11, | 2-7-7, | ||||
| Denver | 10.7 | 11.5 | -0.8 | 13-3 | 11-5, | 9-7, | 11-4-1, | ||||
| San Diego | 8.6 | 8 | 0.6 | 11-5, | 8-8, | 6-10, | 5-5-6, | ||||
| Oakland | 5.8 | 5 | 0.8 | 7-9, | 5-11, | 4-12, | 1-4-11, | ||||
| KC | 7 | 8 | -1 | 10-6, | 7-9, | 5-11, | 3-6-7, | ||||
| Team | Wins |
|
Difference |
|
|
|
Favored | ||||
| NY Giants | 6.8 | 8 | -1.2 | 9-7, | 6-10, | 3-13, | 1-8-7, | ||||
| Philly | 9.7 | 9 | 0.7 | 12-4, | 10-6, | 9-7, | 9-5-2, | ||||
| Dallas | 8.1 | 7.5 | 0.6 | 10-6, | 8-8, | 6-10, | 5-9-2, | ||||
| Washington | 7.8 | 7.5 | 0.3 | 9-7, | 7-9, | 5-11, | 1-8-7, | ||||
| 0 | |||||||||||
| New Orleans | 9.2 | 10.5 | -1.3 | 13-3 | 11-5, | 8-8, | 8-6-2, | ||||
| Atlanta | 8.9 | 8.5 | 0.4 | 11-5, | 8-8, | 5-11, | 2-9-5, | ||||
| Carolina | 7.7 | 8.5 | -0.8 | 10-6, | 7-9, | 5-11, | 5-5-6, | ||||
| Tampa Bay | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9-7, | 6-10, | 3-13, | 0-4-12, | ||||
| Green Bay | 9.7 | 10.5 | -0.8 | 13-3 | 11-5, | 9-7, | 10-4-2, | ||||
| Chicago | 9 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 11-5, | 9-7, | 6-10, | 6-6-4, | ||||
| Detroit | 9.1 | 8.5 | 0.6 | 13-3 | 11-5, | 6-10, | 7-7-2, | ||||
| Minnesota | 5.3 | 6 | -0.7 | 7-9, | 5-11, | 4-12, | 0-8-8, | ||||
| San Fran | 9.9 | 10.5 | -0.6 | 14-2, | 11-5, | 6-10, | 11-5-0, | ||||
| Seattle | 10.2 | 11 | -0.8 | 14-2, | 11-5, | 8-8, | 12-4-0, | ||||
| Arizona | 6.7 | 7.5 | -0.8 | 11-5, | 7-9, | 4-12, | 4-9-3, | ||||
| St. Louis | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 9-7, | 6-10, | 4-12, | 1-7-8, | ||||
| Total | 255.9 | 262.5 | -6.6 |
| Team | Schedule Dif | My Guess Raw | My line to Vegas | 2 way mine-Vegas | True Dif | Most accurate | Difference | Total Wins |
| NE Pats | -1.6 | 11.5 | 0.5 | 10.7 | -0.3 | -0.55 | 0 | 11 |
| NY Jets | -1.1 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 6.95 | -0.05 | -1.8 | -3 | 4 |
| Miami | -0.7 | 7.5 | 0 | 7.15 | -0.35 | -2.1 | -3.5 | 4 |
| Buffalo | -0.3 | 7 | 0.5 | 6.85 | 0.35 | -0.65 | -1.5 | 5 |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Houston | 1.3 | 7 | -0.5 | 7.65 | 0.15 | 1.15 | 1.5 | 9 |
| Tennessee | 1.8 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 7.4 | 0.4 | 1.65 | 2 | 9 |
| Indy | -2.2 | 9.5 | 0 | 8.4 | -1.1 | -2.35 | -2.5 | 7 |
| Jacksonville | -0.5 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 4.25 | -0.75 | -1 | -1 | 4 |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Pittsburgh | 0.8 | 8.5 | 0 | 8.9 | 0.4 | 0.65 | 0.5 | 9 |
| Baltimore | -1.1 | 9 | 0.5 | 8.45 | -0.05 | -0.55 | -0.5 | 8 |
| Cincy | -1 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 9 | 0 | -0.75 | -1 | 8 |
| Cleveland | 1.3 | 7 | 0.5 | 7.65 | 1.15 | 2.15 | 2.5 | 9 |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Denver | -0.8 | 11.5 | 0 | 11.1 | -0.4 | -0.65 | -0.5 | 11 |
| San Diego | 0.1 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 8.55 | 0.55 | 0.3 | 0 | 8 |
| Oakland | 0.3 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 5.65 | 0.65 | 0.9 | 1 | 6 |
| KC | -2 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | -0.5 | 0 | 8 |
| Team | Schedule Dif | My Guess Raw | My line to Vegas | 2 way mine-Vegas | True Dif | Most accurate | Difference | Total Wins |
| NY Giants | -1.2 | 8 | 0 | 7.4 | -0.6 | -1.6 | -2 | 6 |
| Philly | -0.3 | 10 | 1 | 9.85 | 0.85 | 1.35 | 2 | 11 |
| Dallas | 0.1 | 8 | 0.5 | 8.05 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.5 | 8 |
| Washington | 1.3 | 6.5 | -1 | 7.15 | -0.35 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 9 |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| New Orleans | -1.3 | 10.5 | 0 | 9.85 | -0.65 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 11 |
| Atlanta | 0.9 | 8 | -0.5 | 8.45 | -0.05 | 0.95 | 1.5 | 10 |
| Carolina | 0.2 | 7.5 | -1 | 7.6 | -0.9 | -1.65 | -2.5 | 6 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.5 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 6.75 | -0.25 | -1 | -2 | 5 |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Green Bay | -0.3 | 10 | -0.5 | 9.85 | -0.65 | 0.35 | 1.5 | 12 |
| Chicago | -0.5 | 9.5 | 1 | 9.25 | 0.75 | 1 | 1.5 | 10 |
| Detroit | 0.1 | 9 | 0.5 | 9.05 | 0.55 | 2.05 | 3.5 | 12 |
| Minnesota | 0.8 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 4.9 | -1.1 | -0.85 | -1 | 5 |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| San Fran | -1.6 | 11.5 | 1 | 10.7 | 0.2 | 0.95 | 2.5 | 13 |
| Seattle | -1.3 | 11.5 | 0.5 | 10.85 | -0.15 | -0.9 | -1 | 10 |
| Arizona | -2.3 | 9 | 1.5 | 7.85 | 0.35 | -2.15 | -3.5 | 4 |
| St. Louis | 0.5 | 6.5 | -1 | 6.75 | -0.75 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 5 |
| Total | -10.1 | 266 | 3.5 | 260.95 | -1.55 | -6.05 | -5.5 | 257 |
| Three levels of teams |
| Playoff Caliber |
| Decent Playoff Chance |
| Pushovers |
| Team | Power Ranking | Playoff % | Top 2 RS | Top 4 ply | Top 2 ply | SBA | SBW |
| Broncos | 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Patriots | 8 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Browns | 16 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Titans | 22 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Texans | 20 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Steelers | 10 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| Bengals | 9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Chargers | 12 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |||
| Chiefs | 14 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||||
| Ravens | 15 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |||
| Colts | 21 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||
| Raiders | 23 | 0.2 | |||||
| Dolphins | 24 | 0.1 | |||||
| Bills | 29 | 0.1 | |||||
| Jets | 30 | 0.1 | |||||
| Jaguars | 32 | 0 | |||||
| Team | Power Ranking | Playoff % | Top 2 Reg | Top 4 ply | Top 2 ply | SBA | SBW |
| 49ers | 1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Lions | 7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Packers | 5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Eagles | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Saints | 6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Bears | 11 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Seahawks | 2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Falcons | 13 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Redskins | 19 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ||||
| Cowboys | 17 | 0.2 | |||||
| Panthers | 18 | 0.2 | |||||
| Giants | 26 | 0.2 | |||||
| Bucs | 28 | 0 | |||||
| Vikings | 31 | 0 | |||||
| Rams | 27 | 0.1 | |||||
| Cardinals | 25 | 0.1 | |||||
| 528 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
|
| Change in power rankings | Record | Likely playoff seed | |||||
| Broncos | 8 | -4 | 11-5, | 1 or 2 | |||||
| Texans | 9 | 11 | 12-4, | 1 | |||||
| Dolphins | 12 | 12 | 10-6, |
| |||||
| Raiders | 12 | 11 | 9-7, | 5, 6, or out | |||||
| Bills | 14 | 15 | 9-7, | 5, 6, or out | |||||
| Jaguars | 20 | 12 | 11-5, | 3 or 4 | |||||
| Cardinals | 7 | 18 | 10-6, | 5, 6, or out | |||||
| Vikings | 11 | 20 | 11-5, | 2, 3, or 4 | |||||
| Rams | 12 | 15 | 10-6, | 5, 6, or out | |||||
Only a handful of other quarterbacks in the NFL can help teams as much as Tebow is able to help them. If a team, such as the Vikings, were to pick Tebow up and insert him as their starting QB then he would improve that team tremendously.
Final Options for picks: Dolphins, Giants, Panthers, Vikings, Rams, Browns, Lions, Philly (Colts and Jets?)
Second Round: Lions, Titans (Pass), Colts, Jets, Giants, Dolphins (Pass), Rams
Last 5: O: Lions U: Colts, Jets, Giants, *Rams
Final Four: Lions, Colts, Jets, and Giants (3-1)
Final 5 picks: Lions Over, Jets and Colts Under, Titans and Browns to win division 50, 50, 50, 10, 10 (2-1, then 0-2 for the division flyers. Overall win/loss likely at +20.)
| Poor Preseason Playoff Predictions | (And this does look fairly ugly now) | ||||||||||||
| 3 Browns | 1 Broncos | ||||||||||||
| 6 Titans | 6 Titans | ||||||||||||
| 1 Broncos | |||||||||||||
| 4 Texans | 2 Patriots | 5 Steelers | |||||||||||
| 5 Steelers | 5 Steelers | ||||||||||||
| 5 Steelers | |||||||||||||
| 3 Saints | 1 49ers | 2 Lions | 2 Lions | ||||||||||
| 6 Falcons | 5 Packers | ||||||||||||
| 2 Lions | |||||||||||||
| 4 Eagles | 2 Lions | 5 Packers | |||||||||||
| 5 Packers | 3 Saints |
| Breakout teams: Browns, Lions, and Titans | |||||
| Fading teams: Colts, Panthers, and Seahawks | |||||
| Entering wk 16 | Still alive | Virtual locks | Out | Dominant | Doormat |
| AFC | 6 | 5 | 5, 6, or out | “1” | 4 |
| NFC | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Entering wk 17 | |||||
| AFC | 5 | Possible 3 team tie at 8-8 | |||
| NFC | 3 | Possible 3 way tie at 10-6 |
|
Can it happen? | Reason why | |
| Bengals | Yes | QB play | |
| Patriots | No | Teams in division | |
| Colts | No | The Jaguars | |
| Broncos | Yes | Manning injury | |
| W2F | |||
| Texans | Yes | Division and regression | |
| Bills | Yes | With better QB | |
| Browns | Yes | QB play | |
| Raiders | Quite unlikely | Manning injury and QB play | |
| F2W | |||
| Eagles | Unlikely | Division | |
| Saints | Unlikely | Team | |
| Packers | No | Vikings | |
| Seahawks | No | Team | |
| W2F | |||
| Redskins | Yes | Division | |
| Falcons | Yes | Team | |
| Vikings | No | Team | |
| Rams |
|
With great QB play |
Actual Predictions
| AFC | Wins | Losses | ||
| Patriots | 11 | 5 | Patriots partially pulverize pathetic division | |
| Dolphins | 6 | 10 | Dolphins disintegrate | |
| Bills | 6 | 10 | Jets' E.J. Manuel shows more bluster than brightness | |
| Jets | 5 | 11 | Jets jettison playoff plans | |
| Browns | 9 | 7 | Browns bounce to their best form | |
| Steelers | 9 | 7 | Steelers see semi-decent year | |
| Bengals | 8 | 8 | Bengals beat many, but fall to beefy competition | |
| Ravens | 7 | 9 | Ravens pass some, but cannot run | |
| Titans | 9 | 7 | Titans not terrible with healthy Locker | |
| Texans | 9 | 7 | Texans triumph, finally, against Luck | |
| Colts | 7 | 9 | Colts get corralled by tough schedule | |
| Jaguars | 3 | 13 | Jaguars joke while getting jumped | |
| Broncos | 12 | 4 | Broncos beatable by few | |
| Chargers | 8 | 8 | Chargers crunchy core, but creamy exterior | |
| Chiefs | 7 | 9 | Chiefs cannot get past crummy-ish passing game | |
| Raiders | 5 | 11 | Raiders ridiculously feign legitimacy | |
| 121 | 135 | |||
| NFC | ||||
| Eagles | 11 | 5 | Eagles enter “Two time division champs” status | |
| Redskins | 8 | 8 | Redskins rumble to relevancy | |
| Cowboys | 7 | 9 | Cowboys cry and crumble due to defense | |
| Giants | 5 | 11 | Giants' greatness is not found | |
| Lions | 12 | 4 | Lions light fire and leap Pack-Attack | |
| Packers | 12 | 4 | Packers pawn teams, yet fall to 2nd in division | |
| Bears | 10 | 6 | Bears beleaguer their attack plan and only manage third | |
| Vikings | 5 | 11 | Vikings violate the basic competent QB policy | |
| Saints | 11 | 5 | Saints sign-off on division title | |
| Falcons | 10 | 6 | Falcons fight off falling to fourth | |
| Panthers | 7 | 9 | Panthers' WRs cannot catch passes | |
| Buccaneers | 5 | 11 | Buccaneers buckle down too late | |
| 49ers | 12 | 4 | 49ers fear no one and fry fierce opponents | |
| Seahawks | 10 | 6 | Seahawks sear most teams, yet are still left from playoffs | |
| Rams | 5 | 11 | Rams register respectability, but cannot rule NFC West | |
| Cardinals | 5 | 11 | Cardinals need coherent QB play | |
| 135 | 121 | |||
| 256 | 256 |
Spread picks
My schedule O/U lines had the greatest variability with the Vegas lines in the cases of the Patriots, Titans, Colts, Browns, Chiefs, Giants, and Saints.
My O/U lines were always within a game of Vegas except for in the cases of the Cardinals and Vikings.
The biggest true differences were the Browns, Colts, Jaguars, Chargers, Raiders, Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Saints, Panthers, Packers, Bears, Lions, Vikings, and Rams.
The difference from the most accurate: Jets, Dolphins, Texans, Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Browns, Giants, Eagles, Panthers, Bears, Lions, 49ers, Cards, and Rams. After cleaning a little more: Under:
Last Choices: Dolphins,
(Philly worth a look on overs and Vikings and Rams for unders.) (These three picks would have been 2-1.)
Conclusion Overs: Browns and Lions.
Conclusion Unders: Dolphins, Giants, and Panthers
Results: The Browns managed to beat their projected O/U by week 12, but then proceeded to lose five straight games, so they only beat their line by a half game. The Lions were a fairly comfortable over throughout the season.
The Dolphins were a little bit more competitive than expected and managed to go over their projected O/U line by a half game. The Giants were a fairly bad team throughout the season and comfortably went under their projected O/U line. The Panthers, despite winning their division, managed to go under their projected win total by a game and a half.
Overall Record: 4-1.
Thanks for reading.
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