Showing posts with label QB Rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label QB Rankings. Show all posts

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Quarterback Rankings for 2014

In this post I will be ranking all 32 starters, two free agents, and about two dozen backup QBs. The +, -, or NA (No ranking previously) after each quarterback's name is how much that quarterback has moved from my first rankings.  The grade right before the end of each quarterback's notes is the amount of support that quarterback received from the offensive line, the rushing attack, and his wide receivers.   My OL grades were mostly just educated guesses, RB and WR grades are certainly more accurate.
       I was a little tempted to grade the defensive side of the ball as well in a simple letter grade, but I ended up passing on doing that since it would have added even more research and time spent on this post and I figure that I already spent enough time on this post and that it is more than sufficiently long.

My rankings for the quarterbacks were based partially on their play as a whole in their careers, play this past season, and also as a predictive guess as to how each would be able to play in a random game in 2014.
The overall average grade for the quarterbacks is a low B-.  At first I thought that I had too many high grades, and, 'if everyone is above average, then no one is' came to mind, but I suppose that a B- average isn't too out of the ordinary for an average grade.

I had not looked at my previous post on QB rankings to check how far QBs should move up or down until I was close to the end of editing this, but I found it somewhat funny that even though I had more QBs that I did not officially place into the rankings this season, I still somehow ended up with 48 players officially ranked in each post.

The next time I rank quarterbacks I may be tempted to forgo putting in backups or FAs as normal rankings and simply rank the starting quarterbacks who have started the most games for their team, and then rank the backups and FAs in a separate ranking.  Seeing quarterbacks like Flacco, Tannehill, and Manning, etc., in the 30's doesn't entirely seem right.. Though, at the same time, I do not have an extremely high opinion of any of those three QBs.

This year, I am willing to say that there are six QBs in the NFL who can be bestowed the title 'Elite'.  On to the rankings..

A+: The Commanders of the League Division
1.  Peyton Manning +3  Sure Manning is provided with one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, a somewhat average running game, and a fair O-line, but he helps to provide that overall group of good players with the opportunities to perform as great players.  He has the ability to produce stats and dominate an opponent like no other player.  Manning was a stat monster this season, breaking various NFL regular season records.  Those stats, combined with Rodger's injury, were enough to boost Manning to #1.  Below average to average offensive line, decent rushing attack, very good receiving corps.  Offensive support for Manning, B+. 

Tom Brady had many moments of frustration
 this season with both himself and his WRs, but
he still helped to lead the Patriots to a 12-4 record.

(Author of the picture, Jeffrey Beall.)
2.  Aaron Rodgers -1 Even though I think that Rodgers is just a smidgen below Manning, that isn't to lessen anything that Rodgers does.  In fact, in some respects, Rodgers is sometimes asked to do more than  what Manning is asked to do.  Rodgers molds poor O-line play, Eddie Lacy (somewhat of a revelation to the Packers in that they may finally have a competent running game), and very good receivers into a top 5 offense.  Support to Rodgers, B-. 

3.  Tom Brady -1 While Brady did have many more struggles than he normally does, in some regards he still provided one of his best years at QB for the Patriots.  Considering that Brady was behind a slightly above average offensive line, a mismatched group of running backs, and that he was at times throwing to receivers that I had never even heard of before, he provided a top-level QB performance. Normally the coach that each QB has does not have much of an impact on the grade for offensive support, but having Coach Belichick keeps Brady's offensive support grade above a D+ or D-.  C- 

A: The Remaining Elite QBs Division
4.  Phillip Rivers +5 This is the Phillip Rivers I know and like.  The aberration of the previous two seasons of poor play by Rivers aside, Rivers is an elite quarterback.  Although, to be honest, Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt have a considerable amount to do with his improvement back to eliteness.  (I'm just throwing this out there, but if the Browns really wanted to be top 3 team in the AFC, then all they wound need to do is trade for/buyout Coach McCoy and Whisenhunt and sign Tim Tebow. I think the Brown's offense would be in the top 10 and since their defense doesn't need to be substantially fixed at all it would also be in the top 10 and the Browns would be in the area of a top 6 team.)
        Coach McCoy said before the season began that he thought Rivers could have a 70% completion percentage at the end of the year, and while people semi-laughed at him before the season, Rivers finished at 69.5%.  Not too shabby. Despite having a lack of options at WR, partially due to a number of injuries, Rivers still had great success.  The Charger's rushing attack is about average, O-line play slightly above average, and WR's a bit below average.  Support for Rivers, C-.

While having LeSean McCoy available to juke defenders certainly
 did help Foles, he was able to turn in one of the most impressive
abbreviated seasons ever by an NFL QB.  (link)
5. Nick Foles +/- NA Foles had the fastest rise to the rank of the elites that I have ever seen.  While Foles only has a little over a year of starting experience, I was willing to be a little bit risky and place him in the top 6 based on his stellar performances throughout the season.  (Except for the games in which he and the Eagles played the Cowboys, he had some poor moments in those games.)  His TD to INT ratio, at 27-2, was absolutely unreal.. And thus it is unsustainable for the future, but still incredible nonetheless. He is working with a top 3 running back, a fair offensive line, one of the best coaches in the NFL, and, other than one great play-maker receiver, semi-poor wide receivers. So while his situation is somewhat desirable, he did have an amazing season.  B

6.  Drew Brees -3 If Drew Brees is at home in a dome, then he is probably the 3rd best QB in the NFL, but if Drew Brees is in the elements on the road, then he is closer to only being a top half QB.  Getting back Coach Peyton was great news for Brees.  Brees can have some of the prettiest passes in the game.  He has a decent O-line, a poor rushing attack, one of the best coaches in the NFL, somewhat decent WR's, and a monster TE.  B+

A-: The On the Verge of Eliteness Division
7.  Andrew Luck +9 (approx.)  While I did contemplate moving Luck up to the Elite, to me, he hasn't shown a level of consistency yet to be considered an elite quarterback.  However, that's not to take away from anything that he does, he improves a below-average team to playoff-caliber level.  He is one of the smartest QB's in the game and accentuates his and the Colts' play greatly because of it.  Below average O-line, poor rushing attack, generally fair WR's.  Tempted to go with a D+, but I'll settle with a C-.

8.  Tony Romo -1 Viewed by some as a below average QB, Romo provides the Cowboys with great QB play week in and week out.  One of the more consistently great QB's in the NFL.  Below average O-line, decent rushing attack, and some decent WR's.  C+

9.  Matt Ryan +4 This was finally the year that Matty Ice couldn't take the heat and melted..  Failed attempts at humor aside, he and the Falcons struggled mightily in close games for the first time in his career. Injuries to other offensive players certainly hurt his consistency, but overall it was still a fairly disappointing season for Ryan.  Average O-line, generally a horrible rushing attack, very good WR's.  C

B+: The Still a Franchise QB Division
10.  Cam Newton +5 Up until a few weeks into this season, there were many questions about Newton's ability to lead, his playmaking abilities for the last few years, and why the Panthers couldn't seem to win the close game. But, the narrative has changed drastically since then, because the Panthers won 11 of 12 games, with the lone loss being played in a close to impossible place to win, the Saints' Superdome.  Newton was a very good QB before this breakthrough, and remains just that: a very good QB. His overall stats are in many ways virtually the same in the three seasons that he has played in the NFL.  I'm not willing to place him into the A grade until he has another year making winning plays and leading winning drives. Below average O-line, same for the rushing attack, below average WRs.  D+

11. Russell Wilson +/- NA This seemed like a good spot for Wilson, however I was a bit tempted to give him just a B.  (I did write the majority of this blog post before the playoffs even began, but I still certainly think that Wilson should be at or very close to #11.  Wilson's play in the playoffs does not change my opinion of him very much.) He can help to be the facilitator of an explosive offense, however, he has more help than most QBs which should be taken into account.  His record over two years is impressive, but if it were possible to swap Luck and him over the past two seasons, then I think that Wilson would have struggled with some of the aspects of the Colts' offense, and the Colts would have consequently likely not been a playoff-caliber team either last season or this season.. (However, they still would have made the playoffs this season.  They would have made the playoffs because of circumstances inside their division, namely the putridity of it, not because of actually being a playoff-caliber team.)  Good O-line, great rushing attack, good WRs. B+ 

B: The Worthy of a Starting Job Division
12.  Josh McCown +/- NA While I do not think the differences between McCown and Cutler are substantial, I do have McCown marginally higher than Cutler, thus I do think that he is the better QB, albeit slightly.  I was never able to watch very much of McCown's games, however, in what I saw he was a decent QB and his QBR numbers were somewhat off the charts considering that they were even above Manning's numbers.  Therefore, I am willing to give McCown a very solid B.

13.  Matthew Stafford -2 Stafford has the opportunity to throw to one of the best WRs to ever play the game, a fair offensive line, an explosive rushing attack, and yet somehow Stafford is one of the league leaders in interceptions..  Something doesn't compute. Despite that large negative, Stafford does have the ability to throw for 300 yards on any given Sunday.  While I know effectively nothing about the situation, I kind of wonder what his leadership is like, because, to me, considering the firepower the Lions have, leadership seems to be one of the missing ingredients for the Lions to be a top NFC team.  B-.

14.  Colin Kaepernick +/- NA Kaepernick by-in-large took a semi-major step back this season, as expected.  I found it a bit humorous how some analysts/experts were saying that he had a decent chance at being the best QB that ever played the game..  He hadn't even played a full season of games and yet some were ready to anoint him as having the potential to be the greatest ever? Really? That aside, he was still a fairly decent quarterback and generally provided the 49ers with winning plays. OL is decent, rushing attack is above average, and WR's are slightly above average.  B-

15.  FA Tim Tebow -1 Sure he gives his team a bit of a lightning storm since the media and the rest of the league is somewhat inclined to talk about him, but that isn't a very good reason to not pursue signing him.  Props to NE for showcasing him for a little while, but still, for now, no team has the guts to actually pick up an above average QB.  

16.  Matt Flynn +21 (Gigantic leap up the board for Flynn, I don't like to make leaps greater than 10 in improvement, but here, since he was ranked so lowly to begin with, I'll make an exception.) One start almost never showcases a QB's skills accurately, and Flynn's one start against the Redskins was a bit of a joke in multiple regards.  When he wasn't hesitant he provided good throws for the Oakland receivers and helped to lead the Raiders to a quick 14-0 lead, however, once the Raiders took the lead, they became outrageously conservative and asked Flynn to make throws which are not accommodating to him.  Consequently, the Redskins came back and took the victory from the jaws of defeat.  I was fine with the Raiders cutting him though, since, to them, he was a sunk-cost and it provided the Packers with the opportunity to pick him up to replace Rodgers. (After Flynn was picked up by the Bills.) 

I tend to agree more with QBR over the normal 0-158.3 rating, however I don't think that it is always a very accurate assessment of a QB's play either.  QBR said that Flynn was the worst qualified starting QB.. Which, to me, is a joke.  While Flynn certainly didn't look like Rodgers out there, (and no one does..), and about 1 out of every 10 drop-backs was a sack, he did usually look miles above the Hennes and Bradfords of the world.  

Flynn, like Tebow.. (I know, it is so incredible..)  needs to be put into a '2 minute' spread type offense where he is only asked to make 1-3 reads each play in a quick-paced offense.  He and Tebow struggle when they are given time to subconsciously ask themselves whether or not they should make a certain pass or not.  When Flynn and Tebow are put into situations in which they are asked to make a quick decision, trust their 'flawed' mechanics and the intended receiver, and are put into a fast-paced offense, then they are at their best.  It is no coincidence that Tebow and Flynn have the ability to lead incredible comebacks.  Generally, in situations that are dire for their teams, it is more likely that the two QBs are placed into situations which are more advantageous to their skill-sets and they become semi-high risk and very high reward QBs.

 And yes, both QBs owe some of their success to other teams being stunned and foolish.  Flynn and the Packers benefited from the Cowboys refusing to rush the ball against a below-average rushing defense.  While Tebow and the Broncos benefited from some teams, such as the Bears, going into a prevent defense against him and the Broncos.  Green Bay is not some anomaly place and team wherein Flynn 'magically' becomes a competent QB. No, Green Bay is simply a place wherein the Packers are more likely to utilize his skill-set properly.  Flynn and Tebow are both above average QBs that should be starters somewhere in the NFL.

17.  Jay Cutler -5 Cutler was criticized for not playing a few years back and then this year was criticized for playing..  Sometimes a guy just can't win..  He certainly helps Chicago with his play, however, other QBs can be signed for less money.  In a world with no economic problems, signing both McCown and him would be the right move, however that world is not reality, hence I think the correct move for the Bears is that they should sign McCown instead of him. (I would also say that is the move less likely to happen.) [] Chicago's O-line is about average, rushing attack is decent, and wide receivers are also decent.  B-

18.  Ben Roethlisberger -10 (This is probably too large of a fall, but I was unimpressed with large portions of Roethlisberger's play.The biggest problem I have with Roethlisberger is that I have a difficult time spelling his name and have to spell check it every other time I type it.. Okay, joking, joking, that's not his biggest problem.  Silliness aside, he struggled mightily with his consistency throughout the season and as such the offense had major difficulties.  OL below average, rushing attack was poor at the beginning of the season, but it picked up to the point of being average, and WRs are below average. C-

B-: The Generally a Quality Starter Division
19.  Jake Locker +17 (Locker certainly jumped up the rankings this season, he was also an exception since he was originally too low.) The Titans provided an early season surprise with their play, but faded quickly down the stretch with Locker suffering an injury.  I have stated before that I like Locker's abilities, I think the Titans should sign a long-term deal with him.  OL above average, rushing attack average, WRs below average.  C

20.  Sam Bradford +12 Bradford's injury puts some interesting pressure onto the Rams.. I think that Bradford is an above average QB, but the dilemma comes in that he is only that: above average.. With the offensive skill-players that the Rams have they probably need a healthy B quarterback or above to be a good team.  I'm not certain what the Rams should do with him, I would very slightly lean towards signing a long term deal with him, but only very slightly. Neither decision comes without resulting problems.  O-line average, rushing attack above average, WRs average.  C

21.  Alex Smith -1 When provided with good teams and scenarios, Smith provides a level of competency that I was unable to foresee two years ago.  His QBR points to him being a below average QB, which I agree with, however he is able to manage a game very competently.  OL above average, Rushing attack is great, and WRs are above average.  B-

22. Robert Griffin the III B- -6 (approx.)  Griffin's injuries are very troubling, but I don't think that he is a walking injury waiting to happen.  He should still be able to have a decent career.  OL very poor, rushing attack below average, receivers slightly below average.  D+

23.  Carson Palmer +4 At times it was hard to tell whether or not Palmer was accentuating the Cardinals chances to win or if he was holding them back..  That aside, Palmer was generally a fairly decent QB and  he certainly provided better passes than the mess of a QB situation that the Cardinals had last season.  A much better OL than last season, though still only up to about average, rushing attack is below average, and WRs are above average.  C-

24. Michael Vick -14 Vick provided a decent level of play until he was, get this:..  (I hope you're seated for this, since you probably won't see it coming..) Injured.  At this point in his career it might be better for him to go to some franchise such as the Browns or Jags, and then between him and some other backup/starter they could possibly provide enough decent play for that team to be a competent and possibly even playoff-caliber team.

25. Kyle Orton -3 Other than when something like the media and its hullabaloo, thanks to Tebow, gets to his psyche, Orton is a somewhat reliable quarterback.  He has some high risk throws, but in general is a fairly decent quarterback.  He isn't exactly very old, so, in my humble opinion, he should quite possibly be a starter somewhere in the league.  However, an argument could certainly be made that his level of play is a fairly known entity, and as such younger and more volatile options at QB should be pursued for teams without a 'franchise QB'. 

26.  Kirk Cousins +/- NA He didn't acquit himself very well in his 3 starts, but I think a large reason behind that happening was because of Washington's horrible OL.  I'm not willing to give up on Cousins yet.

27.  Matt Hasselbeck -8 Hasselbeck is a quality backup who could potentially be a good alternative for teams across the league when those teams have openings that will last for more than 2 weeks, such as the Packers when Rodgers went down. Since Hasselbeck happens to be the first backup QB that I've mentioned without playing time, apparently Hasselbeck is the best backup QB as well.

C+: The Manageable Starters Division
File:Matt Schaub tackled.jpg
Schaub impressively bookended the
 season with interceptions.  His time in
Houston may be short. (Author: AJ Guel)
28.  Matt Schaub -23  I fail to see how Schaub fell from the division of QB On the Verge of Eliteness, to the level of (semi-) manageable starting quarterback.  His fall from the verge of the elite was very fast, but that can certainly occur when when you pass the other team a touchdown in 4 consecutive weeks.  OL is below average, RBs suffered injuries, but are normally decent, and WRs are fair.  C+ 

29. Andy Dalton -12 (Dalton probably improved his play this season, and as such, either this is a somewhat poor ranking or the previous ranking was too low.) I probably have Dalton too low, but at the same time his consistency leaves a lot to be desired.  One week Dalton is a top 5 quarterback, then the next week he is a bottom five starting quarterback.  O-line above average, rushing attack is decent, WRs are some of the best in the league.  B

30. Terrelle Pryor +/- NA I largely agree with Pryor's previous agent on this one, at times it seemed like the Raiders were actively trying to sabotage Pryor's career.  I fail to see why management/coaching would desire to do so, but to me, that is indeed what it appeared that they were trying to do.  I am still of the opinion that Flynn would have been able to lead the Raiders to a semi-decent record, even while also setting a modern day record for sacks taken. However, next to Flynn, Pryor was the next best thing on the roster for the Raiders and he provided them with a genuine spark when he played, but as soon as he was injured the reigns were taken away from him and handed to McGloin.  O-line somewhat horrendous, rushing attack above average, and the support from WRs is horrible.  D

31. Case Keenum +/- NA Keenum may not have led the Texans to a single victory, but I still mostly like what I saw from him.  I'm not certain if he is the Texan's QB of the future or not, I would lean towards sticking with him as the starter and fixing other needs on the roster, such as drafting someone like Jadeovon Clowney in the NFL draft.  

32.  Chase Daniels -19 (He fell in the rankings through no real fault of his own.)  I'm not entirely certain why no team has ever taken a flyer on Daniels as a starter, sure he has that occasional ugly pass, such as his last pass against the Chargers, but he has the abilities to be Drew Brees lite.  I think a team should take a risk on him.  And while one game sample size means almost nothing, if Succup had just been able to hit another field goal, then the Chiefs second stringers would have beaten the Chargers 1st stringers. 

C: The Handed a Starting Gig, Despite Poor Play Division
33. Joe Flacco -9 (Another ranking that is way too tough, even if I am fairly tough on him, Flacco should likely be a bit higher.) How about that fluke season last year?  Flacco had the most interceptions by a QB not named Eli Manning this year?  No way..  I never would have guessed..  This is the Joe Fluko Flacco that I know and like, although really it wasn't all his fault or really even close to all his fault. He had almost a complete lack of support from the running game and his wide-receivers.
       Not to be a broken record, but I hope that management is happy with the decision to likely give 120+ million dollars to a quarterback who has a career normal QB rating of 83.7, a QB with a career completion percentage a tick above 60%, a quarterback who doesn't pass the eye test, and a QB who has never ended a season in the top ten of QBR. (This season he finished 25th in QBR.)  The money being tossed to Flacco makes it rather difficult to sign as many weapons as they would like to sign. OL slightly below average, rushing attack poor, and WRs also poor.  D+

34. Mike Glennon +/- NA Considering the circumstances, Glennon did a somewhat admirable job in Tampa.  He did not post monster stats, or really anything close to them, but he provided a decent level of consistency at QB.  If I would be the head of Tbay's management, then I would not want him as my starting QB because there are higher ceiling quarterbacks available, but he certainly isn't a horrible choice to be a team's quarterback.  OL below average, rushing attack about average, WRs slightly below average.  C-

35.  Matt McGloin +/- NA I fail to see why McGloin was receiving such glowing praise from the media for a handful of weeks.. He didn't exactly lead the Raiders to many victories.. And he didn't look particularly impressive throwing interceptions either.  In my opinion, he shouldn't have seen the field beyond a game or two, but that certainly shouldn't be held against him..  Depending on what management does, he could have an interesting future in Oakland. 

36.  Eli Manning -30 (Kind of a ridiculous fall for Manning.. I should possibly cap how far a QB can fall as well.) Manning and Tannehill probably shouldn't be this low, but that's just the way things worked out.  I think that Eli should say that he is an elite quarterback so that people can scoff at him again. since it worked out pretty well for him last time..

37.  Ryan Tannehill +/- NA -15 I haven't seen enough of Tannehill to really have a solid opinion on his ability to play QB, but the limited amount of action that I have seen plus his statistics haven't impressed me too much.  Bad OL, mediocre rushing attack, below average WRs.  D+

C-: The Occasionally Serviceable Quarterback Division
38.  Josh Freeman -5 Freeman was another quarterback with a semi-precipitous fall from competency to incompetence.  I partially fail to see what caused the situation in Tampa to go so dreadfully wrong, and, for whatever reason, Freeman couldn't seem to find his accuracy early this season.  Also, his one start for Minnesota was a bit of a joke..  That situation set up everyone to fail..  You sign a guy with confidence issues and immediately ask him to lead your team without him having a firm understanding of your playbook?  Yeah, I'm sure that scenario won't fail in all respects.. And after that one start, the Vikings were paying him millions of dollars for what purpose?  To sit on the bench?  Well, actually.. Yes.  Unsuccessful management at its finest.

39.  Geno Smith +/- NA I'm not entirely certain why I ever had vaguely high hopes for Smith..  While he did provide winning plays at times for the Jets and it is way too early to give up on him, by-in-large he simply turned the ball over and provided the other team with more points than his own.   He does have a lack of options at WR, but still he should have provided more of a spark to the Jets offense. OL below average, rushing attack below average, and WRs are poor.  D+

40.  Chad Henne +/- NA Henne isn't a horrible choice to use as a tanking quarterback, but really he is probably a little too competent..  As such, the Jaguars are still in a scenario where they have no legitimate franchise starting QB and likely will not be able to grab one in the draft, unless they trade away multiple picks. Since this should technically be about him, Henne did do a decentish job given the horrible circumstances of the Jaguars.  By my grades, he was given the worst support in the NFL, but he still, at least, turned that into 4 wins.  OL is a fair amount below average, the rushing attack at times was horrible, WRs are also poor.  D-

41.  Ryan Fitzpatrick -7 Fitzpatrick is a very competent backup QB. But, he has effectively no unrealized potential remaining and is a known entity.   He shouldn't have started the rest of the way for the Titans as starting QB, but that is just the way that some failed managements like to do things.  Fitzpatrick is a good stop-gap, a 1 to a maximum of 3 games starting QB, he isn't a 'Locker just got injured and he'll be out for handful of games so let's put in Fitz until Locker is ready to go' kind of guy.  Decent job by Fitzpatrick with limited weapons.  OL above average, rushing attack below average, and WRs are poor.  C-

42.  Kellen Clemens +/- NA Clemens did help lead the Rams to a 4-5 record during his tenure at QB.. (What that accomplished for the Rams I have no idea.)  And he was a better quarterback than I would have given him credit for.

43.  Matt Cassel -14 Cassel had a few good plays for the Vikings, but he is largely a known entity so I fail to see what the Vikings were gaining by playing him.  OL average, rushing attack is decent, WRs are fairly bad.  C-

D+ through D-: The Third String QBs With Little Upside Division
44.  Christian Ponder -13 By this point, Ponder can probably be considered a first round bust.  I think he can be a decent backup, but his starting quarterback days are likely over.

45.  Jason Campbell +/- NA At rare times Campbell provided the Browns with a spark on offense, but most of the time, other than via Josh Gordon, the offense simply failed to move the ball.  OL average, rushing attack is poor, WRs are poor with the exception of Gordon.  D+

46.  Brandon Weeden +/- NA It may happen to be a bit past the time for the Browns to give up on the Weeden era ever having great success in Cleveland.  I'm just saying.  I hope some team picks him up as a backup, but he doesn't appear to be very close to starting material.

F+ and below: The You're still in the NFL? Division
47.  Curtis Painter +/- 0 Welcome back Mr. Painter, I'm not sure why you are still employed in the NFL, maybe you are a great friend of the Mannings?  Painter has a stellar career normal (0-158.3) rating of 57.6, and consequently he likely has a QBR less than 36, yet he is still in the league backing up Mannings.  

48.  Blaine Gabbert -3 Even Peyton Manning was awful for a year when he was just coming into the league.. Sadly for Gabbert, he's not even close to the same realm as Peyton Manning.  It is possible that an organization not named the Jacksonville Jaguars could provide new life for his NFL career, but not very likely.

Rankings of a few players I forgot to add to my original list.
Tony Tebow A+ #(The number simply means what spot I would guess they would fit in.. For Tony Tebow it would be approximately at Tom Brady's spot.) I still think that Tony Tebow would make an elite quarterback.

Brian Hoyer B- #24 Hoyer didn't provide fantastic stats, but he did provide something that the other Browns quarterbacks had much difficulty in providing: victories. Hoyer provided two victories in his two games that he started and finished, while the other Browns QBs were an embarrassing 2 and 12. Hoyer at least provided competency at the most important position in the game.  While I would much prefer that the Browns go the route of a Tim Tebow, Vince Young, or even Matt Schaub, I would also be somewhat interested in seeing what Hoyer could do with the Browns if given more playing time.
Vince Young B- #25 Young is another QB with a good record, but 'lousy' mechanics, and hence he is out of the league.  Suffice it to say, I don't think this is the correct route.  Some team should take a flyer on Young.
Colt McCoy B- #27 I don't have a lot to say for McCoy, I simply want to mention that he should also be given the opportunity to be a starter somewhere.  

Seneca Wallace C+ #28 Wallace played decently when asked to step in, but soon an injury took the starting role away from him as well.
Kevin Kolb C+ #29 Kolb may still has some potential left untapped.  He should be a decent backup at worst.
Ryan Mallet C+ #29 I'm guessing that learning from Belichick and Brady isn't a horrible circumstance for Mallet.
Matt Barkley C+ #31 Barkley didn't impress in his playing time, but I still have semi-high expectations for him.
Thad Lewis C+ #31 Lewis is still somewhat of an unknown entity and he didn't play too poorly when given the chance.

EJ Manuel C- #38 Manuel didn't show that he could be the leader of the Bills.  While one year, especially a year with semi-major injuries, doesn't prove anything, Manuel has not looked like a very good QB.

Scott Tolzein D+ #44 Tolzein understandably struggled in attempting to take over the starting QB role in place of Rodgers.
Thanks for reading.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Quarterback Rankings

This post is basically just my rankings of some QBs and if they had a better season than I thought they would have.  These were originally made in the offseason....  And then I did some quick editing in the preseason, and was going to post it, but didn't get around to it..  So here is my messed-up list of QB rankings in the NFL.  Idk, if I will update next year or not..  But, I would really like a more accurate listing, so I might get around to it..

I first give some brief comments about the QB, then I say how much (in my view) they went up or down that year, and if they will go up or down this year.   And a / simply means no real change.

I dislike people tossing around 'elite', and not actually defining what they mean by it..  Experts like to give so many QB's the 'elite' status, so there are probably at least 10 QB's who are 'elite'.  So I decided to do some QB rankings, and also define my definition of elite..  Though even my definition of 'elite' isn't a set-in-stone standard, because I could be convinced to add a QB or two into 'elite'.

Elite
1 Aaron Rodgers At times last season, Aaron Rodgers, like Drew Brees, put up video-game like numbers.  And, in some ways, Rodgers might have had the best regular season a QB has ever had + 5.  More struggles than last year, but holds on to #1.

2 Tom Brady He’s been to 5 SBs and won 3 of them in the last ten years, and he’s still near the top of his game.  Maybe up one, and I'll say down 1 or two this year.

3 Drew Brees  If being an elite QB was only based on Super Bowls, then like Peyton Manning, Brees doesn’t have the rings to ‘prove’ he’s an elite qb.  However, year-in and year-out he has put up outstanding numbers, and for the last few years has kept NO at or near the top /.  Hold.


Peyton Manning He admittedly has not led Indy to multiple SB rings unlike Brady, however, I believe the talent around him is quite a bit worse then in NE.  As partially evidenced by this -- Brady gets injured his team goes 11-5, Manning gets injured his team (albeit, possibly a tanking team) goes 2-14 – and I think that if Manning had started in NE and Brady in Indy, then Manning would have more SB’s then Brady.  Not applicable +- for last year (based on my expectations), and I'll say -3 for his standards this year.

On the Verge of Being Elite
5 Matt Schaub If he had been healthy, I believe that the Texans would have been in the SB playing the Giants, and it would have been a toss-up game.  He doesn’t have the playoff appearances (much less wins) to validate this spot, but I think his consistency and numbers over the the last couple years has validated it, up 2.  Hold.

6 Eli Manning He now has one more SB win then his brother, and while I still don’t think he’s quite on the level of his brother, if gets another SB, then we might have a new ‘best Manning’.  While he was awesome in the playoffs, if you were to ask most people one year ago, (when he threw 23 ints) how good Eli was, they would probably say somewhere in the 16-32.  And if you’d ask the same people now, they’d probably put him in the top 5.  I try not to get influenced too much by the ebs and flows of popularity, so that’s why he’s at six + 3.  -2.

7 Tony Romo
Underrated by most people, though I don’t know if I should have him this high, especially considering Dallas only has one playoff victory in the last 6 years.  That aside however, I think he puts up some great numbers.  He makes the (relatively speaking) impossible seem easy, and the easy seem impossible +1.  /.

Excellent
8 Ben Roethlisberger
And once again if this were based on SB rings, then he would be among the Elite.  But imho, I think that the defense has carried him to his Super Bowl victories.  However, that shouldn’t take away too much from him, and I think he is one of the few qbs who can extend plays /.  /.

9 Phillip Rivers  And in case opposite of Eli, if this were based only on this year, then Rivers would be in the bottom half of the league.  But I base it on a little more then one season.  One of his drawbacks has been, other then being the kryptonite to Indy, the Chargers haven’t really done much in the playoffs during his tenure -2, +1.  

10 Michael Vick
Two years in a row he’s started out hot, and then faded after playing the Bears.  Some games he tries to be a pass heavy QB and other games he's too much of a run first QB.  And while some unpredictability is good, I think if he could find more of a groove, and decide what he is, then he will be a better QB -3, -3.

(R) Kurt Warner He would be a couple spots higher if this were a year or two ago, but even now I think he could still play extremely well as a starting QB for a given NFL team.

Top Half
11 Matthew Stafford  He has been a tad injury prone over the years, however he put up some great stats last year and helped get the Lions to the playoffs +5.  +1.

12 Jay Cutler I defended him when he was injured and I think I’ve kind of been proven right on that account.  Since I put a lot into how a team plays without you, and when Cutler was injured the Bears kind of stunk..  I should maybe have him higher..  But at the same time,  I don’t want to overreact, so he gets the 12 spot +1.  +3.

13  Matt Ryan  Admittedly he and the Falcons have failed in the playoffs so far in his tenure, but I think eventually they’ll break through and get a win.  He is often compared to Flacco, and the reason I have Matty Ice 11 spots above Flacco is because Mr. Ryan has a cool nickname..  No, not really, it’s actually because I consider the Ravens defense to be in the top 5 while the Falcons defense has been like a 20, -1, +3.

14 Tim Tebow Well I’ve already kind of dissected him in the Broncos recap.  I figured I shouldn’t put him much higher than this, and if this was only about last season, then I would have put him higher, but considering other QB’s have more credentials/experience, I’ll leave him at a decent 14.  +2. +3

15 Cam Newton  At the beginning of the season he was above almost everyone’s expectations, but as the season progressed he fell more along the lines I expected him to play +2.  -2

16 David Garrard (I)  This is probably one of my most ‘messed up’ picks, but I’m a fan of Garrard since he’s a Christian so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll come back from his injury completely healthy.  Not applicable +-.  -1.

Starting Quarterbacks

17 Andy Dalton I was pleasantly surprised by his play, and if I had done a QB ranking before the season started, he probably would have been closer to about 26.  So for my rankings estimation probably the second (or third if you count Skelton) biggest improvement of any QB (though admittedly Dalton hadn’t played an NFL game yet) +7.  -3

18 John Skelton  Since he would have been off my rankings (if I had made them) Skelton technically didn’t make a jump in them.  And IF this was purely about numbers, then yeah, you can laugh at me.  But, since it includes more than that, you can stop now.  While his numbers were even worse then Tebow’s statistics, like Tebow, all Skelton did was win (relatively speaking in both cases) leading the Cards to a better record than I thought they could obtain +15.  I'm guessing he's going to move back to backup QB this season, so he gets a large move back -15.

19 Matt Hasselbeck – Probably within 4 years of his retirement sadly (or at least him being a starting QB, if he were to wish to mentor younger players and be a backup, then that would be quite alright). He had a decent season and kept the Titans relevant +3.  -4

20 Alex Smith – And this would probably have been my worst prediction.  I think he was finally given a QB coach for two years in a row, and the results were impressive.  While, I think that last year is going to be about the best of his career, I do think he is now going to be a manageable starter. +16.  -4

21 Vince Young (NS)
While I don’t think he’s as good as Tebow, he does also have the winning quality.  -2.  -4

22 Kyle Orton    (NNS)
While he sort of got the ‘last laugh’ against Tebow, (though oddly enough, Tebow and the Broncs made the playoffs, while he did not) imho, Orton should not have been the starting quarterback in the preseason or the regular season.  But, I still think he’s good enough to be a fair veteran starter somewhere in the league -1.  -9

23 Kevin Kolb   (NNS)
He had a bit of a disappointing season, and couldn’t lead AZ to the playoffs.  He had some injuries and inconsistency.  Overall, I thought he would be a bit better and I was disappointed with his play -3.  -1

Manageable Starting QB, But Looking for Something Better
24 Joe Flacco
(Another Eli case) I probably have Mr. Flacco way too low, but I think the D has helped carry him to success.  And through most of the season I thought talk-shows were ripping him too much.  But now that he’s made a good pressure throw against NE, which his receiver dropped, he’s suddenly supposed to be a top ten QB.  Huh?  I like him and he deserves to start, but I don’t think he’s going to be a great QB, nor does he deserve to be benched.  /.  +3

25 Matt Moore
Kind of a coming out party for Moore.  Decent season, led the Dolphins to being a top ten team for  a couple games +5.  -2

26 Joe Webb
While he is older than some other QBs, I like Joe Webb slightly more than Christian Ponder.  I kind of think of Webb as another Tebowesque QB +5, /. 

27 Carson Palmer
He didn't do a bad job coming off from his couch. And he helped lead the Raiders to relevance, for the first time in a while.  +1.  +1

28 Matt Leinart (NS)
He played a total of one half of one game, before he was injured last year.  Imho, he deserves to have  a chance to be a starting QB somewhere.  +1.  +4

29 Matt Cassel
Disappointing year for Cassel, but he was coming off a decent season and playoff spot last year so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he deserves a starting gig somewhere. -1.  -2

30 Mark Sanchez
(Another Eli case) He had a fairly typical year for him, but this year he couldn’t lead the Jets to a playoff spot.  -3.  -1

31 Christian Ponder
A learning experience for Ponder.  I thought he had flashes of brilliance, but he did help lead the Vikings to a record amount of franchise losses. -1, +4.

32 Sam Bradford
Bradford had the sophomore blues and the Rams struggled mightily because of it.  -7.  I expect him to have a very decent season.  +9

Quality Backups
33 Josh Freeman
Freeman struggled a bit in his third year, and TB was a laughing stock at the end of the year.   -6,  I originally forgot to add him... So I think he'll gain a lot of ground this year.   +13.

34 Ryan Fitzpatrick
He got Buffalo to give him a somewhat absurd contract and proceeded to stink up Buffalo with the rest of his remaining games, except against the Broncos.  However, it was said that he was playing with bruised/cracked ribs the last 7 games, so if true, then props to him for his toughness.  -3.  +4

35 Colt McCoy
I have not really seen any of the Browns games the last two years, so I do not know if McCoy has been really bad or if he has nothing to work with.  But, so far he has been a bit worse than I thought he would be. -7.  +3

36 Jake Locker
Very limited experience, but I think he will probably be a top 15 QB within 3 years.   -3.  +6

37 Matt Flynn
Limited XP, but in his limited playing time, Flynn has been quite impressive, breaking all time GB Packers marks.   +'5' since he's coming from off the board.  +3

38 Troy Smith
He did not find a home this season. -6.  -5 or so and taken off the board.

39 Rex Grossman
Played with the Redskins… Yeah, that’s all I got for you.  -2  +3

Serviceable Quarterbacks
40 John Beck      
I don't know why I ended up putting him here.  -3, -5 off board.

41Caleb Hanie
Disappointing appearance by Hanie in the last couple games for the Bears. -9.  +2

42 Tavaris Jackson
Kind of weird that he had a starting gig, but hey, Seattle has low requirements I guess.  /.  -2.

43 Senneca Wallace
Good backup QB.  -4 off board.

44 T. J. Yates
Due to injuries suffered by his teammates, he got to lead the Texans for the last couple of games, and did an alright job, I guess.  Not applicable +-.

45 Blaine Gabbert
Maybe I and a lot of other people are wrong about him… But, Jacksonville wanted him over Tebow?  Really?  -10.  I do expect Gabbert to improve quite a bit this year, all the way to around 34…+11 But even with that improvement, 34 still means he shouldn’t be starting.  

46 Keith Null
He didn't get any playing time this year. -4.  +1

47 Curtis Painter
He should consider a different profession, like painting..  Lame joke, I know.  Short appearances with the Colts. -10.  +4.

48 Kerry Collins
Very short stint with the Colts and did not play very well.   -7.  +1 Off the QB board next year. 

My rough placement of the following QB's.
Tony Tebow 1  (A fictional QB who is the combination of Tony Romo in the first 3 quarters and Tim Tebow in the fourth.)
Chase Daniels 13
Robert Griffith 16
Andrew Luck   16
Ryan Tannehill 22
Aaron Murray   30

A faster version of my QB rankings:

Elite 
1Peyton Manning 
2Tom Brady
3Drew Brees
4Aaron Rodgers 

On the verge of being Elite
5Matt Schaub
6Eli Manning
7Tony Romo

Excellent
8Michael Vick
9Phillip Rivers
10 Ben Roethlisberger
(Retired) Kurt Warner

Top half
11 Matthew Stafford
12 Jay Cutler
13  Matty Ice  
14 Tim Tebow
15 Cam Newton
16 David Garrard (I.  Injured)

Starting quarterbacks
17 Andy Dalton
18 Sam Bradford
19 Matt Hasselbeck
20 Alex Smith
21 Vince Young (NS.  Not a starter)
22 Kyle Orton    (NNS.  Not necessarily a starter)
23 Kevin Kolb   (NNS)

Manageable starting QB, but looking for something better.
24 Joe Flacco
25 Matt Moore
26 Joe Webb
27 Oakland QB
28 Matt Leinart (NS)
29 Matt Cassel
30 Mark Sanchez
31 Christian Ponder
32 John Skelton

Quality Backups
33 Josh Freeman
34 Ryan Fitzpatrick
35 Colt McCoy
36 Jake Locker
37 Matt Flynn
38 Troy Smith
39 Rex Grossman

Serviceable quarterbacks
40 John Beck      
41 Caleb Hanie
42 Tavaris Jackson
43 Senneca Wallace
44 T. J. Yates
45 Blaine Gabbert
46 Keith Null
47 Curtis Painter
48 Kerry Collins