AFC 2012 Review

Credit goes to ESPN for the actual standings on the right side of the page, and credit to Operation Sports for my predicted standings on the left.  Some of this is a bit disjointed because I originally finished this a few weeks ago and then finished editing it today.  A new addition for my review will be adding the '+-' .  It just means how many games I was off by on average.  For instance in the AFC East NE was off by 1, Miami by 0, the Jets by 4, and the Bills by 2, so the average there would be 1.75.

AFC East
Other than the Jets management being obnoxiously arrogant my picks were fairly decent.

New England Patriots

Their 4 losses were by a combined 11 points.  If the Patriots wouldn't have had to try and overcome a couple blown calls by the replacement referees (not the least of which was a game winning FG), and face the AFC West (1-3 against the West), then the Pats would have gone undefeated.  The Patriots were a fairly predictable team to me.  Their offense never scored less than 20 pts, and they found a running game in Stevan Ridley.  In the playoffs they ran into the Ravens and simply were steamrolled.   The Patriots' grade for the season is a C+.

Miami Dolphins 

Once again the Dolphins were a very competitive team. They were blown out only three times, by NE, Houston, and by, of all teams, the Titans (37-3).  Ryan Tannehill underachieved a little bit in my view.  In general the Dolphins beat the teams they should have beaten and lost to the teams they should lose to.  C+

New York Jets

The human psyche is an interesting thing.  I expected that Sanchez's psyche would officially be shot by week 8, and that Coach Rex Ryan would go to Tebow to see if he could produce different results.  And while I was right about Sanchez's psyche, I was completely wrong about the Jets giving Tebow a chance. An overlooked value of Tebow is how he can deal with the insanely overwhelming media. 

Tebow was officially given a 'screw you' by the Jets each and every week.  The Jets were afraid of doing something different.  Afraid of success.  Afraid of ridicule.  Afraid that they would have to pay $anchez to hold a clipboard.  They picked up Tebow as a reaction to the Giants winning the Super Bowl.  They panicked and thought of what headline they could make that would make New Yorkers remember the Jets.  

A fairly apt illustration for the Jets is to imagine that Sanchez is a flashy billion dollar jet, while Tebow is a simple million dollar jet.  Sanchez's jet is in a nosedive and has virtually no chance of pulling up successfully, and while Tebow's jet is looking a bit ugly staying in the air, it somehow never really looks to be in danger of crashing.  To put it simply for the Jets: There was no need to go down with the ship.. Or in this case Jet.  Sanchez was dead-weight money.

The Seahawks sat Flynn, the 49er's benched Smith for someone better.  They weren't afraid to due something different.  They weren't afraid of money being 'wasted' on a player sitting on the bench.  And anyways, you generally pay the players (effectively) the same amount of money regardless of how much playing time they get.  

If one player is better than the other, then what is there to discuss?  One player tends to produce victories while the other tends to produce losses.  Is it better to be 11-5 with Tebow as starter or 6-10 with Sanchez as the starter? You pay the players virtually the same amount of money regardless.  Is the goal to win games or play the biggest contract?  Don't get caught up in the $$'s.

I was hoodwinked by the Jets. Tony Sparano and the offensive play-calling was a complete joke.  He set up Sanchez and Tebow for failure.  The Jets had the 7th worst team, based on point differential.  They were, more or less, blown out in seven games.

Few good decisions are made when they are made in regards to fear, a reaction to someone else, panic, getting caught up in money to miss the bigger picture, and decisions made with an immediate deadline (something must be done).

Ryan is still a good defensive coach, the Jets only ever gave up more than 30 points due to the offense scoring points for the other team.  Did the Jets pick up any real offensive weapons during the season?  Of course not.

One of the worst games for the Jets was the Buffalo game.  Wait, what?  The Jets won that game.  I mean that in regards to the long term.  I think that games like this made management and Coach Ryan to keep supplying Sanchez the rope he needed to hang himself (metaphorically speaking).  Tebow saw a bit of playing time, Sanchez was decent-ish, and the defense helped put 48 points on the board.  48-28 over the Bills.

In the Steeler's game Sanchez showed more of his true colors.  This game provided (in hind-sight) some very unrealistic hope for Tebow supporters.  Tebow got in for 3 consecutive plays (amazing I know... That I even had to be 'happy' about Tebow getting three plays shows just how clueless Jet's management was.)  and produced a couple of first downs.  However, after a sack the Jets promptly decided to go back to $anchez.  Game over. The Jets lost 10-27 and  were physically dominated by the Steelers.

The Jets slipped past the Dolphins in overtime 23-20.  Sanchez was extremely bad as usual. 

A demolition occurred against SF 0-34.  Give Tebow some garbage time playing time?  No way.  

Houston 17-23, another false hope game for Sanchez.  

Indy 35-9, possibly the only game you can actually say that Sanchez played a good complete game and he only had 82 yards passing.

The game that would effectively ultimately enforce Sanchez being the starter for the rest of the season was the Patriots game.  Sanchez played an OK game, and the Pats had a 10 point lead late in the fourth quarter.  Then, the Pats players were like, waiiiiit a second.  If we beat the Jets by double digits, then they'll probably turn to Tebow against Miami, so we should just lay down and let the Jets come back and give Sanchez supporters some false hope. (While I'm being sarcastic, in some ways I do wonder if that sort of conversation ever occurred during one of the Jet's divisional games. )

Then, after the bye week, Sanchez and the Jets were housed by Seattle 7-28.
I'm tired of repeating that Sanchez stunk each week and Tebow received no real playing time, so I think I'll stop there.  I'll just finish up with these two sentences.  The Jets had the fifth worst scoring offense in the NFL.  Sanchez coined a new term: Butt fumble.  F

Buffalo Bills 

How many teams did the Bills beat that finished in the playoffs?  Answer: Zero.  How many teams have the Bills beaten under Chan Gailey's regime that finished in the playoffs?  Answer: One.  Ouch, that is a very condemning statistic.  However, I don't think that he had a ton to work with at Buffalo, and still believe he's a decent football coach who deserves a head coaching job somewhere.  (I would guess that some team will hire him as an OC)  

If the NFL wanted to "win" their labor strike issues they should have just made Ryan Fitzpatrick their negotiator.  Fitzpatrick, and his Harvard degree, somehow conned the Bills into giving him a six year deal after the Bills beat the Patriots last year.  Since that game Ryan Fitzpatrick has really stunk.  However, with that being said, I still think Fitzpatrick deserves a little more time to prove he can be an NFL starting QB.  I just think the Bills made a big mistake locking/investing so much money into an unproven commodity.  Another unfulfilling season for Buffalo.  C-

AFC North
I effectively nailed three teams, but the Bengals were definitely a poor pick. +- 2.25B-

Baltimore Ravens

Do I now believe Joe Flacco is
an Elite NFL QB?  That's a definite no.

It is possible that I should start looking into the positives of the Ravens and Joe Flacco, instead of all the negatives; because by and large, the Ravens and Joe Flacco proved me wrong this year, albeit by luck and randomness.  They beat the Pats with a FG they didn't make.  They effectively beat the SD Chargers by gaining 27 yards on a 4th and 28.  Baltimore also nudged past the Chiefs (9-6) and Steelers (13-10).  However, they did technically win all those games so credit to where it is due.  The Ravens have not only made the playoffs every year that Flacco has been the quarterback, but they've also won at least one playoff game.
The Ravens steamrolled past the Colts, snuck past the Broncos on a Hail-Mary, more or less throttled the Patriots, and then in the SB beat the 49ers at their own game.  A+

Cincinnati Bengals

I was very surprised that the Bengals reached the playoffs.  Unless I'm forgetting someone obvious, then I vote that the Sophomore of the Year award goes to Andy Dalton (Von Miller as runner-up).  If the Bengals were devoid of AJ Green, then they would have effectively no weapons.  I find it very impressive that Dalton could lead the Bengals to double digit wins, although the 10 wins were fairly hollow.  Washington in week 3 and Baltimore in week 17 were the only victories over playoff teams.  And when you have a nasty defense facing RGIII with only 2 games of NFL experience that isn't exactly a fair playoff win.  Plus Baltimore all-but handed the Bengals the win in week 17.  But, still 10 wins is TEN wins.  A

Pittsburgh Steelers

A pair of home 13-10 losses against the Bengals and Ravens doomed the Steelers to third in the division.  Is Polamalu ever going to make it through an entire NFL season healthy?  In general, the defense did their job once again...  But, Roethlisburger and the offense let them down again.  The rushing attack was particularly ineffective.  No player scored more than two rushing touchdowns.  That's an unreal stat for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  D+

Cleveland Browns

The Browns didn't bother showing up for their last three games.  But, those three games aside, Cleveland did an extremely good job of competing this year.  Brandon Weeden disappointed most of the season, I would say he was one of the worst 29 year old rookies of all time (and one of the best too..).  The Browns are a very young team, and they have quite a bit to build on for next season.  C+

AFC South

Another accurate division, but one misstep was that A-Luck had around 4 more 4th quarter comebacks than I thought he would have.  +- 1.75 A-

Houston Texans

Houston more or less dominated seven of their first eight games, but then flipped the script and struggled in seven of their remaining eight games.  Schaub and Foster struggled, and Brian Cushing suffered an early season-ending injury, yet somehow the Texans still won 12 games.  C+

Indianapolis Colts

Since they went 2-14 last season, they didn't exactly have a very tough schedule this year.  They snuck through a good portion of it, and while they didn't have a ton of quality wins (However, GB, Minnesota, and Houston come to mind) Andrew Luck led them to one 4th quarter victory after another.  Seven 4th quarter comebacks on the year, one more than Tebow had last year.  I assume that the Colts have one of the worst point differentials of all time for an 11-5 team.  While they were definitely the accurate choice for AFC breakout team of the year, my prediction for Indy to finish 7-9 (while a bit out there at the time) now seems kind of weak.

Quick question:  What is the name of the Colts starting running back?  Going once, going twice, gone.  While the competition for NFL Rookie of the Year is very strong, the lack of a running offense is why Andrew Luck should be the somewhat easy choice for NFL Rookie of the Year.  His defense was average, his WR core was fair, his OL was fairly poor, but he had one of the weakest rushing attacks in the league.  That combined with his intelligence prompted the Colts to put the full weight of the offense on him.  The depth of his playbook and audibles by comparison make RGIII and Russell Wilson look like 3rd graders.  (Not that I'm ripping Griffin or Wilson, they are both amazing rookies, it's just that their teams are not fully dependent on their performances.  If Luck turns in a bad performance, then his team is sunk.  If Wilson or Griffin have a bad game, then their teams still have a chance.)  B+

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee was a fairly random team.  They sometimes housed other bad opponents and other times fought a tough game and lost, but they continually got hammered by the good to elite NFL teams.  I was a bit disappointed by Locker's play, but he still has plenty of time to improve.  C-

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags were just an overmatched team against about any team except from their own division.  Gabbert continued his horrid play this season and he suffered an 'injury' in week 10 or 11 which allowed Chad Henne to finish the year.  Suffice it to say, Blaine Gabbert is not the solution in Jacksonville.  While reports have a bit negative so far, if the Jaguars management would have some guts and intelligence, then next up should be Timothy Tebow.  F+

AFC WEST
I absolutely owned the AFC West last year, and I didn't really suffer a huge step-back this year. Yet another +- of 1.75.   A

Denver Broncos

I understand that elite QB's should help defenses by keeping them rested, but I was somewhat surprised to see Denver's defense continue to improve even after Tebow's Ground and Pound type offense. This is some of the stuff I said about Denver in my preview: I think that Manning will have lost a bit off his deep ball due to his injury, but Manning should still be able to throw the short routes almost to perfection.  It's kind of a pity that Manning had to bump Tebow out of town, but I think it worked out fairly well for Tebow and the Broncs anyways.  I expect Manning, Demarious Thomas, Jacob Tamme, etc., to struggle with cohesion and chemistry early against a tough schedule, but to gell and go on a nice winning streak late. Other than the point about it working out well for Tebow, I think those statements proved to be entirely accurate.  

If this were ten year ago, then I probably would not have bet on Manning making such a quick recovery.  However, this isn't ten years ago and the medical field has made some fairly astounding advances.  

I would have had Tebow going 11-5 against the Broncos schedule.  Tebow gave the fans exciting victories, blowout losses, and a playoff victory.  Manning gave the fans blowout wins and no playoff victories.  So I've got a question for Broncos management, Was it worth it?  Actually I'm being somewhat sarcastic.  The Broncos picked up the Greatest Regular Season Quarterback of All Time, and likely for the next few years Manning will remain a better quarterback than Tebow.  So of course in their eyes it was worth it.

I have never understood the Tebow-dislikers saying that Manning having such a good offense proves that Tebow is a horrible quarterback.  So you're telling me that the GOAT (in the regular season) is a better QB than Tim Tebow??  Next you'll be telling me that the earth is round.  C'mon.  I agree that Manning and the Broncos have an extremely good offense this year, but just because they have a better offense than last year does NOT correlate that Tebow is a horrible QB.  Tebow took a team that had won 5 of its previous 19 games to the divisional playoffs.  Tebow took a lottery bound team and improved them all the way to winning the division.  Manning improved a division winner by winning the AFC.  Just because one QB tops another does not mean automatic 'horribleness' for the other QB.  Great job by the Denver defense once again this year, a fair amount better than last season even, 4th best defense in the league.  Very decent year for the Broncos, but not a lot happened that wasn't expected. B-

San Diego Chargers

Other than the Cleveland game which they lost 7-6, in hindsight the Chargers basically should have won and lost about every game that they should have won and lost.  The Chargers were only a safety away from a win against Cleveland, and a toss-up game win against either Cincy or Baltimore from making the playoffs.   If Norv -money maker- Turner is such an offensive guru, then why did those things happen?  Whatever.  Another franchise that wouldn't make a change, because it "costs" money.  Even if it would actually help them more financially in the long run, because they would start to win games.  

Phillip Rivers had an average year (though below average for him), he had a lot of turnovers, but he had no running game to support him.  Ryan Matthews and Jackie Battle averaged an amazing 3.8 and 3.3 yards per carry, respectively.  And the best WR Rivers has to work with is..  Malcolm Floyd?  The season turned for the Chargers @home against the Broncos.  SD was up 24 points and they somehow managed to lose 35-24.  It was an absolute debacle in the second half.  D

Oakland Raiders

Carson Palmer threw for a ton of yardage, but that tends to happen when your team falls behind early and often.  Darren McFadden disappointed extremely by only rushing for 3.3 yards a pop and two touchdowns.  They had the fourth worst point differential in the league, but honestly it felt worse.  C-

Kansas City Chiefs

Four words.  Matt Cassell, Romeo Crennel.  It isn't all rocket science people.  You can kind of see these train wrecks coming.  No offense to Mr. Cassell or Coach Crennel, but neither has ever proven to be more than a good back-up plan.  While I definitely did not buy the offseason hype about them being a good team, I'm just sorry that I bought the hype that since the Chiefs have so much talent on the defense it could carry them to an extra win or two.  
I saw absolutely no way that the Chiefs would make the playoffs and, oddly enough, they did not.  And the Chiefs didn't just 'not make the playoffs', they were absolutely putrid on offense.  They didn't even have a regulation lead until week 9, and they took until the 3rd quarter to 'achieve' a first down against the Raiders.  Against Oakland.  Against the Oakland Raiders.  Until the 3rd quarter against the OAKLAND RAIDERS.  That isn't bad, that is horrendous.  The Raiders (if you take out the shutout against KC, and 17 pts allowed to the Panthers), never allowed a team to score LESS than 20 points.  And yet somehow the Chiefs were having problems getting first downs against them, much less scoring points.

The Bengals scored 391 points on the season and are often viewed as a team that doesn't score very many points. (Though I think that view is a little misguided)  On the other hand, the Chiefs scored an absolutely dismal 211 points, which means a blistering average of 13 points scored per game.  C-

I was horrible at picking the playoff teams, only 3 out of 6 were accurate, but other than the Bengals and Jets I feel like I dominated the AFC.  A grand total of one new playoff team for the AFC this year, the Colts replaced the Steelers. So kind of a lack of parody in the AFC in general, but it was still mostly a great year picking the AFC for me.  An impressive overall +- record for the AFC at 1.875.    B+