I spent/kind of wasted a lot of yesterday doing all of my NBA playoff preview/predictions, and other NBA stuff. Since I was doing
such a high volume of material in one day, this blog post is occasionally a little
less professional then usual. (laugh track inserted here)
I like all of the
Eastern Conference matchups, but I dislike most of the Western Conference
matchups due to them knocking out a couple teams I like.
1 Miami vs 8
Milwaukee
In some ways I think that Milwaukee is underrated and that
they could take a game or two from any other team in the Eastern
Conference. However, there is a
slight problem for the Bucks.. They’re playing the dominating Heat. And this isn’t the 2011 version of the
Heat where they tried to dominate every single game (even unnecessary ones) to
spite all of the haters, or the early 2012 version, where for much of the
season they just tried to beat teams, but not do it in a way that would be
embarrassing. No. This is the 2013/2012 late version of the
Heat, where the Heat don’t take prisoners, and they don’t care what the media
writes about them.
While the Heat won’t really care about this series, I don’t
think that this is a NY type series from last year, where the Heat simply don’t
have a killer mentality. This year, (after beating the Bucks by a high single
digit, and low double digit victory at home) the Heat will walk into Milwaukee
and simply physically dominate the Bucks, and not care about hurting any of the
Buck’s players ‘feelings’ (aka Carmelo Anthony last year).
The best player for the Bucks according to ORtg / DRtg is
LARRY SANDERS! at 109 to 99. That guy on the Heat named Lebron
James? An off the charts 125 to
101. (also a Win shares of .322,
which is stinking crazy)
Never would have guessed this, but in 42 games played Chris
Anderson is putting up some similar numbers to Lebron in those two stats. Also, while I’m stating some insane Lebron stats,
here’s another.. His True Shooting
% is .640.
Here are two quick, fun stats/facts about the Heat.
1. The Heat are 37-2 when Chris (Birdman)
Anderson gets minutes. I don’t
know why players, the media, and fans are praising Lebron James so much.. It’s clearly Anderson who has been
doing all the heavy lifting. Clearly.
2. How long has Erik Spoelstra been
the coach of the Heat? Ever since Lebron has been there, so 3
years, right..? No, he hasn’t been the coach of Miami for just three
years, it’s actually been five.
And Miami has always been above .500 and made the playoffs in his five
years as HC.
All the Bucks should be playing for in this series is either
a moral victory, or if they play really well, then possibly an extremely
contested home win. This is the
only series that I have as a sweep for the first round in the East and the only series overall where I would be stunned if the underdog won.
Over the past 15 years, Milwaukee has practically
perpetually been around a .470 team.
This was actually my longest review.. So yeah.. This also happens to be the one series that is effectively a guarantee to end in four or five games in favor of the Heat. After it took me so long to write this though, that's why the rest of these series discussions are a tad shorter.
I certainly don’t have anything bucking (groan) the public majority
for this game.
Even the amazingness of LARRY SANDERS! can’t stop the Heat.
Miami in 4
2 New York vs 7
Boston
Interesting matchup here.
This is the worst Boston team in half a decade+. While the Knicks have the best team
they’ve had in over a decade. If it wasn’t for the bombing tragedy, then I might just pick
Knicks in 5, but I think the basketball fans in Boston will be provide one of
the best Home court advantages they’ve ever had, so I’ll say the series is more of a toss-up.
With Stoudemire, I think NY would win easily. Also, did Stoudemire play at all this
year? It was like he would come
back for a couple weeks, then bang, he’s out with another injury. Feel kind of bad for the guy. Though, it’s not like he’s not getting
paid.., so yeah, not that sorry.
Coach Woodson somehow got Smith and Carmelo to both shoot
vaguely efficiently this season.
Which led to Anthony having his best season ever.
Also, can we please agree that Anthony shouldn't really be deemed 'scoring champ'.. He took 22.2 shots a game, while KD only took 17.7 per game. About 25% more shots per game.. Yeah, if you want to get the scoring title that way then congrats.. But you could just give Nate Robinson or someone like that, 30 shots a game, and then they would win the 'title'. Also, KD played more games then Anthony, so he actually scored more points overall, anyways.
I would say that the stats actually say Knicks in 4. I wanted to give this series to Boston,
but I don’t think it’s going to happen.
I had difficulty deciding on where to place this series.. It’s hard to say whether the Knicks
will take the series in six or seven... Knicks
in 6
3 Indiana vs 6 Atlanta
Indiana has been extremely healthy this year.
Coach Vogel is a very good coach.
Hansbrough is a bit underatted.
George Hill’s ORtg and DRtg is close to off the charts. Korver’s 119 to 105 is the best for an opposing
player.
Contemplated picking Atlanta for a couple of seconds.. That
was about all it took.
I don’t expect the games to be complete blowouts or anything
like that, but I do expect Indiana to win a couple of games convincingly.
Pacers in 5
4 Brooklyn vs 5 Chicago
It is possible that I missed the memo on this… But, why do
people hate this series? While I
would say that it is the most ‘boring’ matchup other than Miami vs Milwaukee,
it’s still a very decent matchup.
Start playing a little defense, and suddenly fans and the
media are freaking out about how boring teams are.. It’s called defense.
Jimmy Butler captures the best rating. Deron Williams for
the Nets.
I am going to assume that D-Rose is not going to play this
season, and that Noah will not be 100%.
If there weren't any injuries, then this would go 7. Seed-wise this is not an upset, but
public perception-wise, it is a very small upset.
Brooklyn in 6
Summary 1st
round
So based on all of that, I don’t see any 7 game series in
the first round for the East. And
I see all of the (seed) favorites advancing in the first round… A bit lame, I know.
2nd round aka Semifinals
1 Miami vs 4 Brooklyn
You never play or coach to lose the game or anything like
that, but I kind of wonder if Coach Spoelstra might take game 4 off in hopes
that the team will lose, so that some
of the pressure can be released from the team.
Since February 3rd the Heat have suffered all of
two losses. 37 wins in their last 39 in
the regular season. Think
about this.. They went from 29-14
to 66-16. That sounds so
absurd. There were a fair number
of close wins in that.. But, mostly it was just high single digit and low
double digit victories.
I think Williams and Lopez could go off one game at home to
steal one game.. So Miami suffers
their first loss… I guess.
That was my first impression.. Then I remembered Chris Anderson. The dude has gone 39-3 this year, so
why would the Heat lose here..?
Pretty simple. They will
not. (I guess.)
Miami in 4
2 New York vs 3 Indiana
 |
| Assuming the Pacers can even reach the Conference Finals, then Hibbert will have to play some of the best basketball of his career for the Pacers to have a decent chance against the Heat. |
It’s a good thing for Indiana that their defense is so good,
because honestly (for a playoff team) their offense kind of stinks. Other than that the two teams are theoretically
opposites (offensively and defensively), but they actually have many similarities in overall
stats and general play.
The Knicks have been on a small version of a Miami Heat roll
lately, but I think it ends here. Finally
a seed upset.
Indiana 6
1 Miami vs 3 Indiana
An intriguing rematch of one of last year’s
playoff matchups, only this time the winner moves on to the NBA Finals.
Indiana was getting too much love
early in the season, and then from about the All-Star break on they’ve
virtually been ignored (due to them struggling and Miami dominating). I do give the Pacers half of a
chance in this series, but the problem for them is that it’s only half of a chance.
Heat in 6
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