NBA Playoffs Preview 2014

THE NBA PLAYOFFS

1 Pacers vs 8 Hawks

It almost seems like this matchup has happened before.. Maybe it happened last year..  Overall this looks to be a fairly boring matchup in multiple respects, but there should be some good defensive play.  Atlanta is a little better than their win/loss record would indicate, but they still are not a very good team.  Indiana has been fairly bad as of late, but I think that the Pacers will start the playoffs by rolling over the Hawks.  Some people have seen the Pacers swoon and thought that the Hawks have chance to make the series interesting, but I do not think that is the case.  I could certainly see the Hawks taking one game, but beyond that possibility the series should never be in doubt, as opposed to what some experts think..  The Pacers should be able to dominate the paint, I fail to see how the Hawks will be able to stop them.  I might be influenced by going against the public perception of the Pacers right now.. If the Hawks had Al Horford then this series could go six or seven, but since they do not I think that Indiana will get out their brooms.  Pacers in 4, despite being approximately the eighth best teamin the NBA

4 Bulls vs 5 Wizards

The Bulls may have the lowest PPG in the NBA, but they also have the best defense, in terms of PPG.  The Wizards are a fairly interesting team, they lack quite a few things, but they make up for that with superior speed and decent play-making by Wall.  The Bulls seem to have a somewhat high variance in that they tend to blow teams out or get blown out, which is especially odd considering how their games are in effect shortened by their style of play.  Chicago has a very even distribution of points across their team.  Noah has taken another step forward in his play this year.  The Bulls are actually the slightly better team with the superior coach, but I'll take Washington.  Wizards in 6.

3 Raptors vs 6 Nets

The Nets certainly have the advantage over the Raptors in terms of playoff experience.  The Raptors actually have a fairly impressive starting lineup and bench, other than Salmons they are all fairly decent players to vaguely decent.  Once again Tyler Hansbrough should be getting more playing time.  The Nets lineup is rather ehh, although Plumlee is quite decent and should be getting a lot more playing time.  This series has some excitement value, but it shouldn't be all that close in the end.  Raptors in 5.

2 Heat vs 7 Bobcats

I am certain that the Heat were upset that they would be matched up with a team that just recently set the record for futility in the NBA.  Then in the next round they either get a team that got bounced in the first round last season or a team that hadn't even made the playoffs since Bosh was on their team.  The East is very weak.  If a team like the Warriors or Timberwolves would be in the quarter of the bracket with the Pacers, then I would probably take that team to advance to the EC finals.

Anyways though, the Bobcats are a very bad team and in various aspects should not even be in the playoffs.  The Heat, meanwhile, most definitely should be in the playoffs and should be in essence gifted with a first round bye.  I think that the cleaning crew will be busy for the second time in the playoffs.  Heat in 4.

Western Conference

1 Spurs vs 8 Mavericks

I really would have preferred that the Grizzlies would be facing the Spurs and the Mavericks would be facing the Thunder, but because of a bounce of the ball that is not what is happening.  The Spurs are an extremely good team, as evidenced by their impressive record, but still I think that they're a somewhat vulnerable team.  However, I don't think that the Mavs are a team that can exploit their weaknesses very well.  The Mavs are a team that I don't really understand in that, in the games that I have watched they tend to launch a high portion of their shots in non-quality locations, and yet they are still a fairly decent team.  I could see this series going in a couple different ways to the Spurs, but I'll go ahead and split the difference and take the Spurs in 5.  This series could easily be a sweep, my mind was just blown by the Spurs players' Win Shares.  I don't understand..  How can a team have only players (those who consistnently get minutes) that are pluses for their team?  Wow.

4 Rockets vs 5 Trail Blazers

The Rockets may be in the second tier of teams, but due to my affinity to the team, the players, and the way and places that they shoot the ball, the Rockets will probably end up being my dark horse team to win the Finals.  The Trail Blazers are a nice surprise, in some regards anyways, and should offer some challenging play to the Rockets.  A healthy Patrick Beverly and Dwight Howard will be key for the Rockets.  Rockets in 6.

3 Clippers vs 6 Warriors

The Clippers have the distinct advantage in this series because of the one-two punch of CP3 and Blake Griffin, however Iguodala and Steph Curry offer a serious challenge.  The Clippers have a serious upgrade from last postseason in that they now have Doc Rivers as HC.  I think that this series has quite a bit of potential variance, I could see Lob City in 4 or Warriors in 7.  The Warriors are kind of an underrated team by me, but my mind was just partially blown by how good the Clippers are. Consequently, I'll take the Clippers in 5.

 2 Thunder vs 7 Grizzlies Two of my favorite teams are matched up here, which further increases my confusion as to what to do with this series.  I don't like how either team is meshing right now, but I could still see either team challenging for a title.  KD nearly produced 20 wins for the Thunder according to Win Shares, wow.  And his PER was an unreal 29.8.

Whether I look at the conventional stats, the unconventional stats, the advanced stats, the basic stats, the eye test, the ear test, just about any test really, Tayshaun Prince does not seem to pass any of them.   Like seriously, every single stat and almost all the times that I have watched the Grizzlies and him play, they seem to be against him.  And yet Prince starts and provides a black hole on offense and mediocre to poor defenses of shots.  I don't understand.

If Westbrook would be healthy (unless that would change the way he plays the game..) and Prince would be out of the lineup for the Grizzlies, then I would actually peg the Grizzlies as the favorites, but since neither of those things happen to be the case I still like the Thunder to win the series.  If KD would be on the Grizzlies, then I would pick Memphis to win the NBA Championship.. But again that isn't the case..  Also, why does Westbrook jack up an average of 5.5 threes per game?  That is efficient basketball at its relative worst.

Perkins played 1200+ minutes for the Thunder this season.  That happens to be 1200+ minutes too many.  He has the same problem as Prince, he fails every single test, other than the have hands that cannot catch passes test which he passes with flying colors.  Thunder in 5.

A lack of upsets in the first round once again.  But I think that things will change in the second round.

Second Round

At this point I needed to get to doing other things, so I didn't go into too much detail for these series.

1 Pacers vs 5 Wizards

Pacers in 5.

2 Heat vs 3 Raptors

The Raptors are a surprisingly young team.  Heat in 5.

1 Spurs vs 4 Rockets

Finally a completely legitimate upset.  Rockets in 6.

2 Thunder 3 Clippers

Redick is the difference in this series, Clippers in 6.  Someday the Thunder may learn that playing bad players tends to hurt your chances of winning... It isn't all rocket science people.

I gave a little thought to getting cute and picking an upset in the second round for the Pacers' and Heat' games, but I didn't get very close to pulling the theoretical trigger.

Championship Games

The matchup that has seemed to be inevitable all season indeed does come to fruition and

home court advantage proves to be the deciding factor in it.  The Heat are the better team, kind of by far, but I again decided to pull the upset.  Pacers in 7.

3 Clippers vs 4 Rockets

I think that there is a bit of rock-paper-scissors to the NBA in that if the Rockets were to play the Thunder instead of the Clippers, then they would most likely lose in 5, but against the Clippers they have a legitimate chance to win the series.

This was another tough series to pull, but I ended up with Rockets in 6.

Championship

1 Pacers vs 4 Rockets

I would be a bit bored with something conventional like Heat vs Clippers or Heat vs Spurs, so that is part of the reason why I ended up with this series.  That and also I think that it has approximately an 9% chance of happening, which isn't great, but there are a lot of different possibilities for championship series and I would put it in the top 5 most probable.  Thankfully the  NBA Finals home court format has finally been changed to the decent format that it should be.  Although in this case that change actually favors the Pacers.  Rockets in 6.

NBA Review and Playoff Predictions 2012

Milwaukee - Left just on the outside in the East, Jennings and company played slightly above their talent level.

Detroit - They showed occasional flashes of talent and improved a fair amount.

New Jersey - They were probably the most disappointing team to me in the East.  I'll give them a slight break since they did kind of catch the injury bug, but still, they did finish very poorly.

Toronto - They play in Canada...  Yep.  So shout out to the Canadians, and seriously a good job by Bargnani.

Cleveland - I actually like the pieces the Cavs have put together, they could be a .500 team next season.

Washington - They underachieved, but showed promise near the end.

Charlotte - A record in futility, I understand that MJ and the Bobcats were tanking...  But come on, 0.106?

Phoenix – I don’t really expect to see Steve Nash in a Suns uni again.  I thought he really lifted Phoenix from a cellar level team to a playoff caliber team.

Houston – It looked like they would be the eighth seed for quite a while, but a late season disintegration left them on the outside looking in.  I ‘stat-ed’ one of their games and they were doing a great job of getting quality looks (though it was against Sacramento so that was probably why, lol).  And their free throw form was excellent.  Overall, I think Houston actually overachieved.

Portland – A very disappointing team, Aldridge was injured for some time, but on a whole they just underachieved.

Minnesota – Rubio and Ridnour added some spark to the team, but Rubio got injured midway through the season and Ridnour was injured late and the Twolves fizzled.  K Love was absolutely sick throughout the season.  While it’s harder to make the playoffs in the West then it is in the East I think they’ll have a decent chance to make a little bit of noise next season.

Golden State – Stephen Curry and the gang didn’t really do much.

Sacramento – I also looked at one of their games and…. It disappointed to say the least.  They appear to be a fairly talented team, but lacking discipline.  If they would just do some of the basics better, like taking care of the ball and shooting closer to 80% from the line.  Then they could be an interesting team next season.

New Orleans – I thought NO and GS were the teams I was most disappointed in for the WC.  But to give the Hornets a bit of a break, they suffered the worst injury bug in the league this season.  I was looking forward to seeing Eric Gordon in a bit of a starring role, but he was one of the many Hornets players that suffered a long injury.  While they only finished with 21 wins, I think that Coach Monty Williams did a very good job with the players he was given. 

1 Chicago  4 Boston

This should be a fairly epic series.  Especially if it’s like their playoff series a few years ago.

As soon as I start to lean towards one team, I think of the other team’s strengths and lean towards them.  So I guess I’ll say they tie and both advance in 7.  Lol, but since that can’t happen, I take the Bulls in a very competitive and close 7.

2 Miami  3 Indiana

Against Chicago or Boston I would be very tempted to (and probably end up picking) Indiana to the EC finals, but we’re talking Miami here.  Miami in 6.  I’m giving a lot of credit to Indiana, but it might be too much credit considering Miami only took 5 games to beat Chicago last year.

1 SA   4 Memphis

San Antonio faces their nemesis from last year, but this time they’re running on all cylinders.  Spurs get the best of the Grizzlies in a spirited 7 games.

2 OKC – 6 Denver

Another rematch from last year.  And this year it is a little more competitive, but the Thunder are still clearly the better team.  Thunder in 6.

1 Chicago – 2 Miami

LeBron and the Heat advance to the Finals again.

Take two plays similarly to last years series.  After game 5 in Chicago, Lebron is criticized for passing to an open Chris Bosh at the end of the game (who clanks a long two) and the next game LeBron responds by taking and hitting a shot to win both the game and the series.  Miami in 6.

2 OKC – 1 SA

The Old vs The Young.  KD hits a game winner, Westbrook takes advantage of Parker’s age, and Oky City escapes with a series win in 6. (If I was more impartial I would probably predict a 7 game series, but I don’t want to have to be on the road against SA in a must win game 7)

2 OKC vs 2 Miami

I apologize for picking so many favorites.  I don’t really know when the last time was that I picked so many favorites in any sport.  I know it’s not the most inventive pick, picking OKC and Miami.  But, I was sort of ahead of the curve in that I predicted OKC – Miami before it was popular, both last season and also as a preseason prediction for this season.

If the Heat haven’t exhausted themselves by now, and Lebron is staying involved (but isn’t trying to be the killer closer), then the Heat will be nearly impossible to beat.  But, I think that Miami’s PG situation will again be their downfall. 

(Assuming they haven’t changed it)  Instead of the 2-3-2 format.  I wish the NBA would just do the normal 2-2-1-1-1 format that they use for the rest of the playoffs.  It’s hard to see Miami not taking one of the first 2 games in OKC.  And if they do that then all they have to do is take care of business at home. 

For OKC to beat the Heat, the non
 'superstars' will have to come up huge.

So from OKC’s perspective..  Win the first game by 4, lose the second by 5 in OT, win the third by 2 on a buzzer beat from KD, lose the fourth and fifth thanks to triple doubles from Lebron, win the 6^th by 5, and the Championship deciding 7^th  game they manage to win by 4.  Kevin Durant has some amazing performances throughout, so that the Thunder can barely manage a 7 game series win.  A little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, sure.  But, until I’m again proven wrong, I think that’s what’s going to happen.

So the Oklahoma City Thunder are the NBA champions, or World Champions if you prefer that.   

Western Conference Playoff Preview 2012

I did actually write this all the day of the playoffs, I'm just getting around to editing and posting it now.  

1 San Antonio  8 Utah

Many people have written off the Spurs just because of last year and maybe I will be wrong and they will flame out insanely early again.  But, Tony Parker is having maybe his best season as a pro, Ginobli is doing his thing, Duncan is still being good, and the bench has been extremely good.  It has been said that, ‘a deep bench won’t matter in the playoffs.’  Why not?  Yes, it won’t be quite as important as the regular season, but I still think they will use their bench fairly heavily in the playoffs.  This is not the Spurs of a couple years.  Their forte is no longer defense.  It’s actually now more of a run and gun offense.  So they will need their bench.

I think it’s fairly impressive that Utah made the playoffs in front of Phoenix and Houston.  A young improving team.  They’re 4^th in the league in scoring and they have been great at home as usual.

Sorry, for the lack of love for the Jazz, but in my lone sweep of the playoffs I have the Spurs in 4.

2 Oklahoma City  7 Dallas

The Thunder happen to be my favorite team.  And, by complete coincidence, they also happen to have (probably) my favorite NBA player, Kevin Durant.  I think it’s awesome that after nearly every point he scores, he’ll point to heaven, or really the roof since it kind of gets in the way, Durant points to heaven, or in another words God to give Him the glory.  In post game interviews and press conferences, he tends to be fairly liberal in his praising of Christ/God.  Doing it at most opportunities.  He’s not quite as out spoken on Christianity as Tebow is, but it is still quite obvious that he is a Christian.  If I were to ever be blessed with a situation vaguely similar to Tebow or Durant I would probably lean towards Durant’s approach.  Another aside, but I also think it’s cool that he still wears a backpack to most, or possibly all, of his press conferences.  

This is a nice opening 2 vs 7 game.  Instead of an easy New York type team, OKC gets the defending champions.  I personally would prefer that the Thunder would be facing any other Western team not named San Antonio.  I haven’t analyzed many NBA games this year (not that I have in the past either), but one of them that I have analyzed was the end of season LA vs OKC game.  And it was definitely a great game with plenty of drama and, uh, flying elbows..  Most of my analyzing tends to be fairly simple and straightforward (though it can be a bit subjective).  Kind of a like a simplified and subjective synergy.  I was grading the players shot attempts as quality or non-quality.  And one game is technically a ridiculously small sample size, but anyways here is my analysis.

Ibaka has really improved his offense from last year, and that could possibly be the difference for OKC in the playoffs this year.  Durant and Westbrook were both very much off their games (a combined 10-45), but while Durant was attempting quality shots, 16 quality and 9 non quality, Westbrook was heavily favoring the non quality shots, 4 quality and 13 non quality.  [To account for the discrepancy of shots..  I missed a small part of the 3^rd quarter, and I also don’t chart certain shots]  So it’s an extremely small sample size, I know, but KD’s quality shots were a poor 31% and his nq shots were 11%.  While Westbrook was 50% on q (2 out of 4), and a sizzling 0% on nq (Zero for thirteen). 

Part of the Thunder’s game is to push the pace, but if they would be a little more patient and pass up the contested 10 footer 7 seconds into the shot clock for the open 13 footer 17 seconds into the shot clock and if they would do just improve their patience in getting a quality shot, then I think they would be able to beat in 5 games or less 10 of the other 15 teams in the playoffs. 

Harden was taking about an even number of quality and non quality shots, yet hitting about the same of each.  Some of the shots that he made were extremely difficult and fairly amazing.  Even though he tends to come off the bench, he is probably at least the 3^rd most important player on the Thunder roster.  And, imho, the Thunder bench (including Harden) is probably tied for the best bench in the NBA. 

One thing I will say for Westbrook and the rest of the team is that they do an excellent job at the free throw line.  To give some perspective I’ll give the Lakers numbers first.  LAL was 22-2 (92%) on quality free throw attempts and 4-11 (27%) on NQ FTA, for a total of 67%.  While the Thunder were 19-1 (95%) on quality FTA and, amazingly enough, they did not attempt a single non quality FT.  And while this doesn’t have to do with anything here, I think that, while he won’t do a lot on the court, Derek Fisher will have a great impact on the Thunder locker room in the playoffs.

The defending champs are coming into the playoffs as underdogs.  I thought their loss of J.J. Barea was a fairly big loss.  Nowitizki is still hitting his one legged-turn around-fade away jump shot, and Terry is providing a lift off the bench.  But the Mavs are not really generating enough offense right now.

I hate to say it, but this would probably be the most likely 1 or 2 seed upset in the first round.  I’ll take OKC in 6.

3 Los Angeles 6 Denver

This might be the only pair of teams that I’m glad are playing each other.

I think that all of the Western conference series should be fairly compelling and competitive, except for SA-Utah (though it could still possibly have some close games, just not a close series).  One minute I convince myself to pick the Lakers and the next I’m thinking that the Nuggets will win. 

I didn’t take a ton from my analysis for the Lakers, partially because Kobe was taking his usual 20+ shots a game.  I think the best strategy for LAL would be if Kobe defers through 3 quarters and then tries to take over the fourth.  If they were to follow that, I think they could meet OKC in the Conf finals, but they almost certainly aren’t going to do that so I have them on upset alert. 

While his form was usually fairly bad, the person taking the highest amount of high quality shots (other than Jordan Hill) imo was Ron Artest.  But after a dunk on Durant, Artest threw an elbow at Harden.  And while I don’t think it was premeditated or anything like that I do think that the elbow thrown at Harden was definitely intentional and malicious.  I actually think that the Lakers really would not miss Artest very much if he ever leaves, but a sudden departure of any starting player, this close to playoff time is almost certainly going to have a detrimental affect on the Lakers.  

The next highest quality shots were by Sessions, and I thought he did a decent job of attacking the hoop.  Bynum and Gasol came up next with a decent 2-1 ratio of quality to non quality attempt.  But Bynum sat the fourth, and neither player was fed the ball enough. 

Last on the list was, oddly enough, Kobe Bryant.  While he took and made some very tough and impressive contested shots, unless he was tired, he really should have just tried to take Sefolosha almost every time.  On quality looks he was 50%, and on non quality looks he was 28% (5-13).  One of the best players of all time, and still the best game closer.  But, imho, he needs to defer if he wants to have a chance at a 6^th ring.

Denver has Javale Mcgee and stuff.  And on a serious note I have been a Ty Lawson fan for about two years, and I think he is probably a top 5 PG.

 So yeah, this is more of an anti LA pick then a pro Denver pick, but in the end I think that Artest’s disgraceful elbow throw will cost the Lakers the series.  Denver in 7.

4 Memphis – 5 LAC 

The Clippers have CP3, probably the best PGin the game, while Griffin has good name ID and amazing dunks he is not yet the star and all-around player that his popularity should warrant.

The Grizzlies will be looking to unleash their tenacity of last year’s playoffs.  If they succeed in doing that against LAC, it is quite possible they could take it in 5.  As it is though, I will take the Grizzlies in an entertaining 6.

Eastern Conference Playoff Preview 2012

Two posts in a row that are almost theoretically relevant and on time, amazing I know.  If I ever have some time and get around to it, then sometime I plan on getting around to doing some blogs about politics and finishing my recapping of the remaining ‘unrecapped’ teams in the NFL.  Maybe someday, lol.

I wrote this over the last couple days, and by now day one of the playoffs is nearly over.  And surprisingly it was a fairly eventful first day, with Miami putting a beat-down on NY as expected, Derrick Rose suffering a season ending injury, and the Pacers having home court taken from them.

Eastern Conference

1 Chicago faces 8 Philadelphia.

I thought it was funny when some people (including Skip Bayless--a person whom I usually agree with) were saying that Chicago plays better without Derrick Rose.  And they would site the Bulls record with and without him as proof of their argument.  Hahaha.  If they would do some very simple math they would see that Chicago’s record without Rose 17-7 is virtually the same as their record with him 30-12.  Both are approximately equal to a 70% winning rate.  And I’ll grant that a fairly injured Rose is worse than a healthy CJ Watson.  But, if Rose is healthy then he is definitely the better player.  I would say that Chicago is a 5 type seed without Rose.  But, with him they achieve the first seed (again) and probably reach the Eastern Conference finals (again). 

Philly has a nice cast of players.  My favorite player of theirs is Evan Turner.  There are not many teams that are playoff caliber teams and yet do not have a preferred player to run their offense, but Philly is making another run to the playoffs without a star player.

Two system/execution type teams so this could possibly be an interesting matchup, but I see the Bulls taking it in 5.

2 Miami facing 7 New York.

Miami is basically the favorite of the East.  I have been glad that Miami has lost a couple games so that they have the 4^th best record in the NBA.  So they at least won’t be the prohibitive favorite. Imho this is kind of a horrible matchup for both teams.  On the bright side this will probably be the highest scoring matchup in the East. 

I have never been a huge of Coach Mike D’antoni so I thought that firing him was one of the best things the Knicks did all year.  I hope he gets a job with a Charlotte, Milwaukee, or another small market bottom team.  I think that he works the best when he has stars in a small market, aka Phoenix a couple years back.  Even if you have Stoudemire and Carmelo, imho it is very hard to win in the NBA without playing about half the game.  Or namely he doesn’t emphasize defense enough. 

New York finally gets to see Lebron playing in MSG in a playoff game…  But, he happens to be playing for the wrong team.

Also New York should finally get a playoff win.  A buzzer beater playoff win.  Actually I’m not even sure NY can accomplish that.  But assuming they can take a game, maybe they will have actually have a chance..  Yeah, right.  Miami in 5.

3 Indiana 6 Orlando

And now for the no name series, at least to most of the populace.  Even though Indiana is a 3 seed, if they were to do manage to get to the Finals I highly doubt that more than 00.3% of NBA fans would have predicted that. (and 94% of those few fans would happen to be Indy fans) 

Plenty of turmoil with D Howard throughout the season.  Orlando isn’t a bad team, but if they wouldn’t have D Howard (for any time this season) I wonder if they even would have beaten out Philly for the 8^th seed. 

This might be the most competitive series in the East, I have the Pacers advancing in 6.

4 Boston 5 Atlanta

If they're healthy, then Rondo, Allen, Garnett, Pierce, and Bradley forms such a sick lineup.  The Celtics really put something together since the all star break with the best record in the NBA. 

I would say Atlanta has about a 20% chance to play spoiler.  And that would be being fairly favorable.  Imho a horrible matchup for Atlanta, I think they would prefer to be playing any other team in the East. 

Boston in 6.