NBA Review 2013

NBA
First I have a quick sentence or so about a team, then at the end I put up how many wins I was off by, + means I should have guessed more wins, - means I should have guessed more losses.
I didn't go into as much detail for the teams that didn't make the playoffs as I would have liked, and I don't know if I'll ever get to do that fully.  But, I still have all of my stats blogs to edit and post, so each team will be in that.  Also, for the teams that made the playoffs I'll be talking about them in my NBA playoff preview and predictions for 2013.  A bunch of NBA stuff and draft emptying should be posted over the next two weeks.

Atlanta Hawks
Good year for Korver, Smith, and the rest of the Hawks.  -4

Boston Celtics
The injury bug bit the Celtics this year, but even without Rondo, they managed to finish 41-40.  -'6'

Brooklyn Nets

D-Will got some rest, and torched opponents in the second half of the season.  +4

Charlotte Bobcats
I had very low expectations for the Bobcats, and they still somehow underachieved.  -2

Chicago Bulls
I think the preview hypothesis can officially (and thankfully) be declared invalid. +2

Cleveland Cavaliers
Don't really agree with the Cavs firing Byron Scott, though the Cavs should have been better this season.  He had to deal with a young team lacking talent, and a team that suffered lots of injuries.  (Overall, he shouldn't get the blame.)  Also, my preseason prediction shouldn't get any blame, either..  If the Cavs had a healthy Kyrie and Varejao, then they would have been vastly improved, and I am sure my prediction would have been accurate.  But, as it is..  -14

Dallas Mavericks
Nowizkti, and the Mavs finally got to shave their beards at the end of the season, and that was about it for  interesting things that happened with the Mavs..  Just kidding.  But seriously, I probably only saw one or two Mavs games all year, so I don't know a lot about them.
Ding, Ding, Ding.  Winner Winner Chicken Dinner. +/- 0

Denver Nuggets
Whoa, I actually underestimated the Nuggets nastiness.  +5

Detroit Pistons
Andre Drummond provided great PER, discussion.. But that was about it for Detroit this year.
Another winner in the prediction column. +/- 0

Golden State Warriors
I kept the Warriors out of the playoffs, basically soley because of their owner.  Bad decision.   Curry was amazing (as expected).  +13

Houston Rockets
So how do the experts feel about the Rockets now?  Hmmm?  At least this surprise pick came through for me.  And it came through extremely well.  Right on the number.
I kind of assume that from here on my predictions will be worse, but wow, so far other than two main hiccups they've been astoundingly accurate.  +/- 0

Indiana Pacers
I'm not certain as to why I was quite so negative with the Pacers..  I guess the improvement by Stephenson, and Hill caught me off guard, or something.  +'10'

Los Angeles Clippers
Lob City continued to provide entertainment and wins.  Another one right on the mark. +/- 0

Los Angeles Lakers
I never made this official or anything.. (not that this blog is official in anyway, anyways..)  But, when I made my Lakers and Knicks predictions I totally forgot who the HC's were..  So a day after I posted, I remembered who they were and went ahead and swapped (mentally..) three wins from the Lakers to the Knicks.
      If I had only known that the Lakers were going to hire Mike D'antoni this season... Then. Yeah..  I would have been a lot more accurate on this prediction.  Also, my quick speel (Oddly I don't know how you spell that) addressing about Nash in the preview... And then Nash either being, or playing hurt for most of the season.  Yeah.. I suppose that's another reason my prediction was high.  So in some ways I am surprised it was as accurate as it was.  -7

Memphis Grizzlies
For some reason, it appears that I was hating to much on two physical teams.  Memphis and Indiana.  Very wrong on both accounts.  It's like I expected one of their big-men to struggle, Z-Bo, and Hibbert, but that I didn't expect anyone would pick the team up.  Ha.  Or something.  +16

Miami Heat
I had the Heat with the best record in the preseason preview.. But, it turned out to still be fairly low.  I suppose the 27 in a row thing kind of threw me off.  +9

Milwaukee Bucks
My preview hate on management, turned out to be a little to hard on the Bucks in terms of W-L.  Though, I think that Redick helped contribute a few wins.  However, I still don't understand management..  (While there were certainly other players in the deal..) Who in management was thinking that a trade of Tobias Harris for a rental of Redick was a good idea.?  Yeah that'll work well.  And while you're at it why not try to trade one of your few good players, LARRY SANDERS!, for JR Smith, or some other horrible efficiency person.  (I'm not saying Redick is a bad efficiency player, I'm talking about Ellis and Jennings) +10

Minnesota Timberwolves
Are the T-Wolves cursed?  Obviously, no.  And while that is certainly the case..  How many other players have you heard of (unless you're like Bynum, and you injure yourself bowling..) that inure themselves doing something mundane, like push-ups?  aka Kevin Love.  But, he certainly wasn't the only one who was injured this past season..  You could basically pick any player off the T-Wolves, and they would have some games that they sat out due to injury this season.   Due to all of that, my prediction fell a bit flat.  -11

New Orleans Hornets
Huh.  Gordon apparently is kind of like the NBA's Michael Vick.  Looks pretty decent for stretches, then has a long injury, and then comes back and struggles.  -16

New York Knicks
Mike. Woodson. Is. A. Genius.
At least apparently, anyways.
Quick aside.  Per usual, I am sticking by my criticism of management in regards to their off-season moves for players..  Also, I suppose I should mention, that in this case the experts were actually right about a team.  So props for that.  But, anyways, forgetting that..

Coach Woodson has been amazing.  The players he had effectively injury free for the season were Novak, Kidd, Prigioni, and Smith.  The rest (effectively) were players who missed a minimum of a dozen games.  He somehow melded the Knicks roster into a record of 54-28.  Not that I trust the Knicks to do anything in the playoffs, but still a very impressive job by Coach Woodson.  +12.

Oklahoma City Thunder
According to the last couple years tradition for the Thunder.. In which the they improve their record every single year, the Thunder (barring another team being insanely good) were going to get the #1 seed this year.  And sadly, that is what happened.  And not only are they Goliath this year, but all season KD has been (mostly in jest) trying (and failing) to take an I'm not a nice person perception to the public.  So it will be (very) slightly more difficult to root for them this post-season.   +8

Orlando Magic
Rinse and repeat my short preview of them..  Not a lot to see here..  Other than a great prediction anyways. +/- 0

Philadelphia 76ers
Well... Bynum, didn't even produce stats this year.. So.. Yeah.  This prediction didn't really work out.  Not thrilled with the 76er's firing Coach Collins.. He was given very little to work with.   -12

Phoenix Suns
I'm doing this review, while looking back at my preview for the season and...   Huh.  Wow.  I must have been drinking something.. (water that was bad, most likely) that messed with my thinking.  I don't understand it.. Why in the world did I think the Suns would be good..?  Fail.  -17

Portland Trail Blazers
I assumed a healthy Aldridge, and the Blazers got it for most of the season.  -3

Sacramento Kings
A slight underachievement by the Kings.  -5

San Antonio Spurs
Huh.  The Spurs 'overachieved'.  I actually undervalued the perpetually undervalued/underrated team.  And fairly badly at that.  The Spurs have been aging really well.  Great job by Coach Popovich. -12

Toronto Raptors
Lowry made the Raptors interesting.. But, now the Raptors traded for Gay, so they're likely stuck with him for a few years.  Rudy Gay is a kind of interesting player.  For instance..  Did anyone else know that he is only 27 years old?  Because, I know I didn't. So while he has been fairly inefficient throughout his career (to be somewhat kind), he also does still has time to improve.  -3

Utah Jazz
Ehh.  Slightly less horrible than expected.  +5

Washington Wizards
Wall being injured is what hurt this prediction.  (though if he'd be healthy all year, then it might have actually been low)  -6

Here are all of my double digit wrong teams, based on categories.

First a category, that is unpredictable, and thus, these double digit picks in the red were not actually that bad.

Injuries:  Cavs, Hornets, T-Wolves, and 76er's (also the Lakers if not for my swap)

Bias against: GS Warriors management

Two physical teams: Pacers and Grizzlies

What the heck was I thinking: Suns

Forgot about: Coach Woodson (NY Knicks)

Overachieving (for real this time..):  Spurs

So I only 'badly' (badly being defined as being double digits wrong) missed on six teams.  Not too shabby.  I almost had that many teams that I exactly nailed (5).  

So overall, my predictions were surprisingly good.  At least to me.. So yeah, probably not that great to most people.  But to me they were at least decent.

It appears that I had a total of 212 games incorrect.  Average of 7.1 wrong per team.  Kind of weird that I had so many zero's and yet the average was higher than expected.  8.6% on a proportional level as compared to the number of games.

Thanks for reading.  Hope you enjoyed the post, feel free to comment and subscribe.

NBA Review and Playoff Predictions 2012

Milwaukee - Left just on the outside in the East, Jennings and company played slightly above their talent level.

Detroit - They showed occasional flashes of talent and improved a fair amount.

New Jersey - They were probably the most disappointing team to me in the East.  I'll give them a slight break since they did kind of catch the injury bug, but still, they did finish very poorly.

Toronto - They play in Canada...  Yep.  So shout out to the Canadians, and seriously a good job by Bargnani.

Cleveland - I actually like the pieces the Cavs have put together, they could be a .500 team next season.

Washington - They underachieved, but showed promise near the end.

Charlotte - A record in futility, I understand that MJ and the Bobcats were tanking...  But come on, 0.106?

Phoenix – I don’t really expect to see Steve Nash in a Suns uni again.  I thought he really lifted Phoenix from a cellar level team to a playoff caliber team.

Houston – It looked like they would be the eighth seed for quite a while, but a late season disintegration left them on the outside looking in.  I ‘stat-ed’ one of their games and they were doing a great job of getting quality looks (though it was against Sacramento so that was probably why, lol).  And their free throw form was excellent.  Overall, I think Houston actually overachieved.

Portland – A very disappointing team, Aldridge was injured for some time, but on a whole they just underachieved.

Minnesota – Rubio and Ridnour added some spark to the team, but Rubio got injured midway through the season and Ridnour was injured late and the Twolves fizzled.  K Love was absolutely sick throughout the season.  While it’s harder to make the playoffs in the West then it is in the East I think they’ll have a decent chance to make a little bit of noise next season.

Golden State – Stephen Curry and the gang didn’t really do much.

Sacramento – I also looked at one of their games and…. It disappointed to say the least.  They appear to be a fairly talented team, but lacking discipline.  If they would just do some of the basics better, like taking care of the ball and shooting closer to 80% from the line.  Then they could be an interesting team next season.

New Orleans – I thought NO and GS were the teams I was most disappointed in for the WC.  But to give the Hornets a bit of a break, they suffered the worst injury bug in the league this season.  I was looking forward to seeing Eric Gordon in a bit of a starring role, but he was one of the many Hornets players that suffered a long injury.  While they only finished with 21 wins, I think that Coach Monty Williams did a very good job with the players he was given. 

1 Chicago  4 Boston

This should be a fairly epic series.  Especially if it’s like their playoff series a few years ago.

As soon as I start to lean towards one team, I think of the other team’s strengths and lean towards them.  So I guess I’ll say they tie and both advance in 7.  Lol, but since that can’t happen, I take the Bulls in a very competitive and close 7.

2 Miami  3 Indiana

Against Chicago or Boston I would be very tempted to (and probably end up picking) Indiana to the EC finals, but we’re talking Miami here.  Miami in 6.  I’m giving a lot of credit to Indiana, but it might be too much credit considering Miami only took 5 games to beat Chicago last year.

1 SA   4 Memphis

San Antonio faces their nemesis from last year, but this time they’re running on all cylinders.  Spurs get the best of the Grizzlies in a spirited 7 games.

2 OKC – 6 Denver

Another rematch from last year.  And this year it is a little more competitive, but the Thunder are still clearly the better team.  Thunder in 6.

1 Chicago – 2 Miami

LeBron and the Heat advance to the Finals again.

Take two plays similarly to last years series.  After game 5 in Chicago, Lebron is criticized for passing to an open Chris Bosh at the end of the game (who clanks a long two) and the next game LeBron responds by taking and hitting a shot to win both the game and the series.  Miami in 6.

2 OKC – 1 SA

The Old vs The Young.  KD hits a game winner, Westbrook takes advantage of Parker’s age, and Oky City escapes with a series win in 6. (If I was more impartial I would probably predict a 7 game series, but I don’t want to have to be on the road against SA in a must win game 7)

2 OKC vs 2 Miami

I apologize for picking so many favorites.  I don’t really know when the last time was that I picked so many favorites in any sport.  I know it’s not the most inventive pick, picking OKC and Miami.  But, I was sort of ahead of the curve in that I predicted OKC – Miami before it was popular, both last season and also as a preseason prediction for this season.

If the Heat haven’t exhausted themselves by now, and Lebron is staying involved (but isn’t trying to be the killer closer), then the Heat will be nearly impossible to beat.  But, I think that Miami’s PG situation will again be their downfall. 

(Assuming they haven’t changed it)  Instead of the 2-3-2 format.  I wish the NBA would just do the normal 2-2-1-1-1 format that they use for the rest of the playoffs.  It’s hard to see Miami not taking one of the first 2 games in OKC.  And if they do that then all they have to do is take care of business at home. 

For OKC to beat the Heat, the non
 'superstars' will have to come up huge.

So from OKC’s perspective..  Win the first game by 4, lose the second by 5 in OT, win the third by 2 on a buzzer beat from KD, lose the fourth and fifth thanks to triple doubles from Lebron, win the 6^th by 5, and the Championship deciding 7^th  game they manage to win by 4.  Kevin Durant has some amazing performances throughout, so that the Thunder can barely manage a 7 game series win.  A little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, sure.  But, until I’m again proven wrong, I think that’s what’s going to happen.

So the Oklahoma City Thunder are the NBA champions, or World Champions if you prefer that.