NFL Lines 2013

This post will have some more kind of confusing charts and stuff.  Part of  the lack of clarity simply comes from the abbreviations at the top of the column rows.  If you really want to know, then feel free to ask away.  This post is partially just a point of reference for me to look at for once the NFL season is over.  The main results from the charts, at least as looked at from the preseason, are the final end result 'locks' at the end.

	More ac. line
	schedule 10%	schedule dif	dif ac line a	3 way to line	2 way combo w pro
AFC
Patriots	11.2	0.7	-0.3	-0.6	0.1
Bills	6.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	-1.15
Jets	6.3	0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.85
Dolphins	5.5	-0.5	-2	-1.7	-2.75
Steelers	9.9	0.4	0.9	0.6	1.45
Ravens	8.2	-0.8	-0.3	0.4	-0.4
Bengals	7.0	-2	-1.5	-0.2	-2
Browns	5.2	-0.8	-0.8	-0.1	-0.9
Texans	10.3	-1.2	0.3	0.9	0.65
Titans	7.0	0.5	0.5	0.3	-0.5
Colts	6.5	-1.5	-2	-1.0	-1.75
Jaguars	4.5	0	-0.5	-0.3	-1.25
Broncos	10.6	-0.9	-0.9	-0.3	-0.7
Chargers	8.9	0.9	1.4	1.1	1.95
Raiders	7.1	1.1	1.6	1.0	2.55
Chiefs	7.0	1.5	0	-0.7	0.5
	121.9	-2.1	-3.6	-0.5	-5.1
	7.6	-0.1	-0.2	0.0	-0.3
NFC
Eagles	8.3	1.8	1.3	0.3	2.15
Redskins	8.3	-0.2	0.3	0.6	-0.35
Cowboys	8.3	0.3	-0.2	-0.4	0.65
Giants	8.0	-1	-1	-0.2	-1
Packers	10.0	-0.5	0	0.3	1
Bears	8.7	0.7	0.2	-0.1	-0.65
Lions	7.8	1.3	0.3	-0.4	0.4
Vikings	6.5	-0.5	-1	-0.7	-1.75
Falcons	10.6	-0.4	0.6	0.7	0.8
Saints	10.0	1	1	0.3	1
Panthers	7.7	0.7	0.7	0.4	-0.15
Buccaneers	7.4	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	1.2
49er's	10.3	-0.7	-1.2	-0.9	-0.85
Seahawks	9.1	-1.4	-1.4	-0.3	-0.95
Rams	7.7	1.2	0.2	-0.6	0.85
Cardinals	5.4	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	-1.3
	134.1	2.1	-0.4	-0.6	1.1
	8.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
	256	0

		No sched
	Araw	Guess Raw	Diff in lines	Actual lines
AFC			B 2 me
Patriots	11	10.5	-1	11.5
Bills	6.5	6.5	0	6.5
Jets	6.5	6	-0.5	6.5
Dolphins	6	6	-1.5	7.5
Steelers	9.5	9.5	0.5	9
Ravens	9.5	9	0.5	8.5
Bengals	9	9	0.5	8.5
Browns	6.5	6	0	6
Texans	11	11.5	1.5	10
Titans	7	6.5	0	6.5
Colts	8	8	-0.5	8.5
Jaguars	5	4.5	-0.5	5
Broncos	11.5	11.5	0	11.5
Chargers	9	8	0.5	7.5
Raiders	6.5	6	0.5	5.5
Chiefs	6.5	5.5	-1.5	7
	129.0	124.0	-1.5	125.5
	8.1	7.8	-0.1	7.8
NFC
Eagles	7	6.5	-0.5	7
Redskins	9	8.5	0.5	8
Cowboys	8	8	-0.5	8.5
Giants	9.5	9	0	9
Packers	10.5	10.5	0.5	10
Bears	8.5	8	-0.5	8.5
Lions	7	6.5	-1	7.5
Vikings	7	7	-0.5	7.5
Falcons	10.5	11	1	10
Saints	9	9	0	9
Panthers	7.5	7	0	7
Buccaneers	7.5	7.5	0	7.5
49er's	10.5	11	-0.5	11.5
Seahawks	11	10.5	0	10.5
Rams	6.5	6.5	-1	7.5
Cardinals	6.5	5.5	0	5.5
	135.5	132.0	-2.5	134.5
	8.5	8.3	-0.2	8.4
	264.5	256	-4	260

				W-L-Push		W-L-Toss up
AFC	Difference from V-line to my actual picks		AFC	Favored in		Toss up G's
Patriots	0.5		Patriots	13-2-1		10-3-3
Bills	-2.5		Bills	6-8-2		4-7-5
Jets	-1.5		Jets	4-7-5		4-8-4
Dolphins	-3.5		Dolphins	4-8-4		4-8-4
Steelers	2		Steelers	10-4-2		8-4-4
Ravens	-0.5		Ravens	9-4-3		6-5-5
Bengals	-2.5		Bengals	6-5-5		5-7-4
Browns	-1		Browns	2-11-3		3-6-7
Texans	1		Texans	11-2-3		9-2-5
Titans	-1.5		Titans	4-8-4		5-5-6
Colts	-1.5		Colts	7-7-2		4-5-7
Jaguars	-2		Jaguars	1-11-4		3-6-7
Broncos	-0.5		Broncos	12-1-3		8-2-6
Chargers	2.5		Chargers	7-4-5		6-4-6
Raiders	3.5		Raiders	3-12-1		4-6-6
Chiefs	1		Chiefs	3-11-2		4-5-7
	27.5					89-84-83
	1.7
NFC			NFC
Eagles	3		Eagles	7-4-5		4-5-7
Redskins	-1		Redskins	4-8-4		4-7-5
Cowboys	1.5		Cowboys	7-6-3		6-5-5
Giants	-1		Giants	5-3-8		5-5-6
Packers	2		Packers	11-1-4		7-4-5
Bears	-1.5		Bears	5-4-7		5-6-5
Lions	0.5		Lions	5-7-4		5-5-6
Vikings	-2.5		Vikings	2-12-2		4-7-5
Falcons	1		Falcons	13-3-0		7-4-5
Saints	1		Saints	10-4-2		7-5-4
Panthers	-1		Panthers	5-8-3		6-4-6
Buccaneers	2.5		Buccaneers	5-7-4		5-6-5
49er's	-0.5		49er's	11-2-3		8-3-5
Seahawks	-0.5		Seahawks	9-4-3		6-4-6
Rams	1.5		Rams	5-8-3		5-5-6
Cardinals	-2.5		Cardinals	1-12-3		3-7-6
	23.5					87-82-87
	1.5

				% to win		13 total	9 total	lessen to 6
AFC	l.Best Case S	l.Worst Case S	AFC	Division	Playoffs	SBA	SBW
Patriots	12-4	10-6	Patriots	.9	1.0	.2	0.1	0.1
Bills	8-8	4-12	Bills	.1	.1
Jets	7-9	4-12	Jets		.1
Dolphins	8-8	4-12	Dolphins
Steelers	12-4	8-8	Steelers	.5	.7	.2	0.1
Ravens	10-6	7-9	Ravens	.4	.6
Bengals	9-7	6-10	Bengals	.1	.2
Browns	9-7	4-12	Browns
Texans	13-3	9-7	Texans	.9	1.0	.3	0.2	0.1
Titans	10-6	5-11	Titans		.1
Colts	10-6	5-11	Colts	.1	.2
Jaguars	7-9	3-13	Jaguars
Broncos	13-3	8-8	Broncos	.6	.9	.2	0.1	0.1
Chargers	11-5	6-10	Chargers	.2	.7	.1
Raiders	10-6	4-12	Raiders	.1	.1
Chiefs	10-6	4-12	Chiefs	.1	.3
					6.0	1.0
NFC			NFC
Eagles	11-5	5-11	Eagles	.3	.4	.1	0.1	0.1
Redskins	9-7	5-11	Redskins	.1	.2
Cowboys	11-5	7-9	Cowboys	.4	.6	.1
Giants	10-6	6-10	Giants	.2	.3	.1
Packers	12-4	9-7	Packers	.7	.9	.2	0.1	0.1
Bears	10-6	6-10	Bears	.2	.2
Lions	10-6	5-11	Lions	.1	.2
Vikings	9-7	4-12	Vikings
Falcons	12-4	8-8	Falcons	.5	.8		0.1	0.1
Saints	11-5	7-9	Saints	.3	.5	.1
Panthers	11-5	6-10	Panthers	.1	.2	.1
Buccaneers	10-6	5-11	Buccaneers	.1	.1
49er's	13-3	8-8	49er's	.5	.8	.2	0.1
Seahawks	12-4	7-9	Seahawks	.4	.6	.1	0.1
Rams	10-6	6-10	Rams	.1	.2
Cardinals	8-8	3-13	Cardinals
					6.0	1.0	1.0	.6

Difference from V-Line to my actual picks

I'll go through the ones which have around +/- 1.5 or larger in difference.

-

Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Titans, Colts, Jaguars

Bears, Vikings, Cardinals

I think that the value is lacking with the Bills, Jets, Titans, Jaguars (On the principle of the Jags only having to win 5 games to match the over, I kind of have to ignore them), and the Cardinals have the same basic problem as the Jags.

I think there is value in the Dolphins, Bengals, Colts, Bears, and especially the Vikings.

+

Steelers, Chargers, Raiders

Eagles, Cowboys, Buccaneers

Value is lacking for the Steelers.  The other five I think are all fairly decent,

(Even though value is lacking, I'll also go ahead and add the Steelers as well.)

Dif ac line based..

Dolphins, Steelers, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos

Eagles, Giants, Vikings, Saints, Seahawks

I'll ignore the Broncos, Giants, and Saints.

2 way combo w pro

-

Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Colts, Jaguars

Vikings, Seahawks, Cardinals, Giants

+

Steelers, Chargers, Raiders

Eagles, Packers, Saints, Buccaneers

Final choices

First the ignored:  Titans, Jaguars, Cardinals (technically they were supposed to be picked, but based on the number and the lack of clarity on what type of QB performance they will be receiving from week to week, I overrode my lines and predictions and ignored the Cardinals.), Bears, Bills, Jets, Cowboys, and the Seahawks, who were close to not being ignored, but I passed on them.  Also I was extremely close to adding the Texans, since I figure their worst case scenario is probably matching the line at 10 wins, but I passed on them as well.

The end result: My 'Locks' (I think 6 of 8 would be decent.)

I'm very convinced with the Dolphins, Colts, and Vikings on the under. (Only the Bengals go unnoticed in the locks)

And I'm somewhat convinced with all of the overs. So Steelers, Chargers, Raiders, Eagles, and Buccaneers to go over.

MLB, NBA, and NFL Variance

Not the most interesting post in the world..  But, I figured I would go ahead and post it anyways.  Basically I was doing some statistics a little while back and I wanted to attempt to apply a semi-real world application for variance to the three major sports (in the USA), NFL, MLB, and the NBA.  I'm not certain if I actually did it correctly (And I didn't use very much data.)..  I don't really think the charts even provide much information, but here they are anyways.

I'm running into some time constraints, but I think I'm going to end up posting my NFL predictions a while before week 1, and then if there are any small changes I want to make, I'll just change them in a separate post.  I have a couple posts which only need to be quickly edited in order to post, so there will likely be more content in the next week or two.

	Variance	Average game differential from .500	Variance final result	Average game differential from .500	A smaller number means  less parody
NFL - AFC	185	47	0.72	2.9
NFL - NFC	111	36	0.43	2.3
NFL - Complete	296	83	0.58	2.6	0.16
NBA – West C	2438	174	1.98	11.6
NBA – East C	2083	160	1.69	10.6
NBA – Complete	4421	334	1.84	11.1	0.14
MLB - AL	1976	142	0.87	10.1
MLB - NL	2548	162	0.98	10.1
MLB - Complete	4524	304	0.93	10.1	0.06

Main things from the first table..  The most stable leagues, in order, in terms of variance, were: first the NBA, second the MLB, and third the NFL.  Also therefore the leagues with the most parody would simply be reversed.. Hence, NFL, MLB, and then the NBA. (I could be reading variance erroneously, the order may actually be reversed.. And plus it is quite possible that I did something incorrectly..  I think I should have prorated beforehand.. But, yet I don't know if they should have really been on an even playing field or not.  Overall, I don't entirely agree with what I think variance said was true.)

Average game differential from .500 made a bit more sense.  It, combined with the smaller number column (Which was an after-hand prorated version of variance), said that the MLB has very little parody, whilst the NFL has just slightly more parody than the NBA.  That I would agree with.

Average game differential from .500	NFL	NBA	MLB
NFL	2.6	2.2	1,0
NBA	13.1	11.1	4.9
MLB	25.9	22.7	10.1
Variance
NFL	296	863	447
NBA	1517	4421	2290
MLB	2997	8734	4524
NFL	0.58	1.69	0.87
NBA	0.62	1.80	0.93
MLB	0.62	1.80	0.93

The bottom 2/3rds of the chart do not really add much to anything, I am keeping them just in case they could be useful to me at some much later date.  But, the top part is a bit more interesting and just lists what things would be like in terms of differential from .500 if the leagues would hypothetically swap teams. (And those teams would play exactly the same in their new sport as their previous sport..  The likelihood of that is effectively equal to zero.)

As an example, if the teams in MLB were transposed to the NFL, then the average team differential from .500 would only be a one game difference over a given season.  While if the teams in the NFL were transposed over to the MLB, then there would be an extremely large gap between teams and a lot less parody, with an average of 25.9 games separating a team from .500.