This post will have some more kind of confusing charts and stuff. Part of the lack of clarity simply comes from the abbreviations at the top of the column rows. If you really want to know, then feel free to ask away. This post is partially just a point of reference for me to look at for once the NFL season is over. The main results from the charts, at least as looked at from the preseason, are the final end result 'locks' at the end.
| More ac. line | |||||
| schedule 10% | schedule dif | dif ac line a | 3 way to line | 2 way combo w pro | |
| AFC | |||||
| Patriots | 11.2 | 0.7 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| Bills | 6.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -1.15 |
| Jets | 6.3 | 0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.85 |
| Dolphins | 5.5 | -0.5 | -2 | -1.7 | -2.75 |
| Steelers | 9.9 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.45 |
| Ravens | 8.2 | -0.8 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| Bengals | 7.0 | -2 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -2 |
| Browns | 5.2 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.9 |
| Texans | 10.3 | -1.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.65 |
| Titans | 7.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.5 |
| Colts | 6.5 | -1.5 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.75 |
| Jaguars | 4.5 | 0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -1.25 |
| Broncos | 10.6 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| Chargers | 8.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.95 |
| Raiders | 7.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.55 |
| Chiefs | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.5 |
| 121.9 | -2.1 | -3.6 | -0.5 | -5.1 | |
| 7.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.3 | |
| NFC | |||||
| Eagles | 8.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.15 |
| Redskins | 8.3 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.35 |
| Cowboys | 8.3 | 0.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.65 |
| Giants | 8.0 | -1 | -1 | -0.2 | -1 |
| Packers | 10.0 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Bears | 8.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.65 |
| Lions | 7.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| Vikings | 6.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -0.7 | -1.75 |
| Falcons | 10.6 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Saints | 10.0 | 1 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Panthers | 7.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -0.15 |
| Buccaneers | 7.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| 49er's | 10.3 | -0.7 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.85 |
| Seahawks | 9.1 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -0.3 | -0.95 |
| Rams | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 0.85 |
| Cardinals | 5.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -1.3 |
| 134.1 | 2.1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 1.1 | |
| 8.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | |
| 256 | 0 | ||||
| No sched | ||||
| Araw | Guess Raw | Diff in lines | Actual lines | |
| AFC | B 2 me | |||
| Patriots | 11 | 10.5 | -1 | 11.5 |
| Bills | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Jets | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 | 6.5 |
| Dolphins | 6 | 6 | -1.5 | 7.5 |
| Steelers | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 9 |
| Ravens | 9.5 | 9 | 0.5 | 8.5 |
| Bengals | 9 | 9 | 0.5 | 8.5 |
| Browns | 6.5 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Texans | 11 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 10 |
| Titans | 7 | 6.5 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Colts | 8 | 8 | -0.5 | 8.5 |
| Jaguars | 5 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 5 |
| Broncos | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | 11.5 |
| Chargers | 9 | 8 | 0.5 | 7.5 |
| Raiders | 6.5 | 6 | 0.5 | 5.5 |
| Chiefs | 6.5 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 7 |
| 129.0 | 124.0 | -1.5 | 125.5 | |
| 8.1 | 7.8 | -0.1 | 7.8 | |
| NFC | ||||
| Eagles | 7 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 7 |
| Redskins | 9 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 8 |
| Cowboys | 8 | 8 | -0.5 | 8.5 |
| Giants | 9.5 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Packers | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0.5 | 10 |
| Bears | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 | 8.5 |
| Lions | 7 | 6.5 | -1 | 7.5 |
| Vikings | 7 | 7 | -0.5 | 7.5 |
| Falcons | 10.5 | 11 | 1 | 10 |
| Saints | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Panthers | 7.5 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Buccaneers | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 49er's | 10.5 | 11 | -0.5 | 11.5 |
| Seahawks | 11 | 10.5 | 0 | 10.5 |
| Rams | 6.5 | 6.5 | -1 | 7.5 |
| Cardinals | 6.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 135.5 | 132.0 | -2.5 | 134.5 | |
| 8.5 | 8.3 | -0.2 | 8.4 | |
| 264.5 | 256 | -4 | 260 | |
| W-L-Push | W-L-Toss up | |||||
| AFC | Difference from V-line to my actual picks | AFC | Favored in | Toss up G's | ||
| Patriots | 0.5 | Patriots | 13-2-1 | 10-3-3 | ||
| Bills | -2.5 | Bills | 6-8-2 | 4-7-5 | ||
| Jets | -1.5 | Jets | 4-7-5 | 4-8-4 | ||
| Dolphins | -3.5 | Dolphins | 4-8-4 | 4-8-4 | ||
| Steelers | 2 | Steelers | 10-4-2 | 8-4-4 | ||
| Ravens | -0.5 | Ravens | 9-4-3 | 6-5-5 | ||
| Bengals | -2.5 | Bengals | 6-5-5 | 5-7-4 | ||
| Browns | -1 | Browns | 2-11-3 | 3-6-7 | ||
| Texans | 1 | Texans | 11-2-3 | 9-2-5 | ||
| Titans | -1.5 | Titans | 4-8-4 | 5-5-6 | ||
| Colts | -1.5 | Colts | 7-7-2 | 4-5-7 | ||
| Jaguars | -2 | Jaguars | 1-11-4 | 3-6-7 | ||
| Broncos | -0.5 | Broncos | 12-1-3 | 8-2-6 | ||
| Chargers | 2.5 | Chargers | 7-4-5 | 6-4-6 | ||
| Raiders | 3.5 | Raiders | 3-12-1 | 4-6-6 | ||
| Chiefs | 1 | Chiefs | 3-11-2 | 4-5-7 | ||
| 27.5 | 89-84-83 | |||||
| 1.7 | ||||||
| NFC | NFC | |||||
| Eagles | 3 | Eagles | 7-4-5 | 4-5-7 | ||
| Redskins | -1 | Redskins | 4-8-4 | 4-7-5 | ||
| Cowboys | 1.5 | Cowboys | 7-6-3 | 6-5-5 | ||
| Giants | -1 | Giants | 5-3-8 | 5-5-6 | ||
| Packers | 2 | Packers | 11-1-4 | 7-4-5 | ||
| Bears | -1.5 | Bears | 5-4-7 | 5-6-5 | ||
| Lions | 0.5 | Lions | 5-7-4 | 5-5-6 | ||
| Vikings | -2.5 | Vikings | 2-12-2 | 4-7-5 | ||
| Falcons | 1 | Falcons | 13-3-0 | 7-4-5 | ||
| Saints | 1 | Saints | 10-4-2 | 7-5-4 | ||
| Panthers | -1 | Panthers | 5-8-3 | 6-4-6 | ||
| Buccaneers | 2.5 | Buccaneers | 5-7-4 | 5-6-5 | ||
| 49er's | -0.5 | 49er's | 11-2-3 | 8-3-5 | ||
| Seahawks | -0.5 | Seahawks | 9-4-3 | 6-4-6 | ||
| Rams | 1.5 | Rams | 5-8-3 | 5-5-6 | ||
| Cardinals | -2.5 | Cardinals | 1-12-3 | 3-7-6 | ||
| 23.5 | 87-82-87 | |||||
| 1.5 | ||||||
| % to win | 13 total | 9 total | lessen to 6 | |||||
| AFC | l.Best Case S | l.Worst Case S | AFC | Division | Playoffs | SBA | SBW | |
| Patriots | 12-4 | 10-6 | Patriots | .9 | 1.0 | .2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Bills | 8-8 | 4-12 | Bills | .1 | .1 | |||
| Jets | 7-9 | 4-12 | Jets | .1 | ||||
| Dolphins | 8-8 | 4-12 | Dolphins | |||||
| Steelers | 12-4 | 8-8 | Steelers | .5 | .7 | .2 | 0.1 | |
| Ravens | 10-6 | 7-9 | Ravens | .4 | .6 | |||
| Bengals | 9-7 | 6-10 | Bengals | .1 | .2 | |||
| Browns | 9-7 | 4-12 | Browns | |||||
| Texans | 13-3 | 9-7 | Texans | .9 | 1.0 | .3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Titans | 10-6 | 5-11 | Titans | .1 | ||||
| Colts | 10-6 | 5-11 | Colts | .1 | .2 | |||
| Jaguars | 7-9 | 3-13 | Jaguars | |||||
| Broncos | 13-3 | 8-8 | Broncos | .6 | .9 | .2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Chargers | 11-5 | 6-10 | Chargers | .2 | .7 | .1 | ||
| Raiders | 10-6 | 4-12 | Raiders | .1 | .1 | |||
| Chiefs | 10-6 | 4-12 | Chiefs | .1 | .3 | |||
| 6.0 | 1.0 | |||||||
| NFC | NFC | |||||||
| Eagles | 11-5 | 5-11 | Eagles | .3 | .4 | .1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Redskins | 9-7 | 5-11 | Redskins | .1 | .2 | |||
| Cowboys | 11-5 | 7-9 | Cowboys | .4 | .6 | .1 | ||
| Giants | 10-6 | 6-10 | Giants | .2 | .3 | .1 | ||
| Packers | 12-4 | 9-7 | Packers | .7 | .9 | .2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Bears | 10-6 | 6-10 | Bears | .2 | .2 | |||
| Lions | 10-6 | 5-11 | Lions | .1 | .2 | |||
| Vikings | 9-7 | 4-12 | Vikings | |||||
| Falcons | 12-4 | 8-8 | Falcons | .5 | .8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Saints | 11-5 | 7-9 | Saints | .3 | .5 | .1 | ||
| Panthers | 11-5 | 6-10 | Panthers | .1 | .2 | .1 | ||
| Buccaneers | 10-6 | 5-11 | Buccaneers | .1 | .1 | |||
| 49er's | 13-3 | 8-8 | 49er's | .5 | .8 | .2 | 0.1 | |
| Seahawks | 12-4 | 7-9 | Seahawks | .4 | .6 | .1 | 0.1 | |
| Rams | 10-6 | 6-10 | Rams | .1 | .2 | |||
| Cardinals | 8-8 | 3-13 | Cardinals | |||||
| 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | .6 | |||||
Difference from V-Line to my actual picks
I'll
go through the ones which have around +/- 1.5 or larger in difference.
-
Bills,
Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Titans, Colts, Jaguars
Bears,
Vikings, Cardinals
I
think that the value is lacking with the Bills, Jets, Titans, Jaguars
(On the principle of the Jags only having to win 5 games to match the over, I kind of have
to ignore them), and the Cardinals have the same basic problem as the
Jags.
I
think there is value in the Dolphins, Bengals, Colts, Bears, and
especially the Vikings.
+
Steelers,
Chargers, Raiders
Eagles,
Cowboys, Buccaneers
Value
is lacking for the Steelers. The
other five I think are all fairly decent,
(Even
though value is lacking, I'll also go ahead and add the Steelers as
well.)
Dif
ac line based..
Dolphins,
Steelers, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos
Eagles,
Giants, Vikings, Saints, Seahawks
I'll
ignore the Broncos, Giants, and Saints.
2
way combo w pro
-
Bills,
Dolphins, Bengals, Colts, Jaguars
Vikings,
Seahawks, Cardinals, Giants
+
Steelers,
Chargers, Raiders
Eagles,
Packers, Saints, Buccaneers
Final
choices
First
the ignored: Titans,
Jaguars, Cardinals (technically they were supposed to be picked, but
based on the number and the lack of clarity on what type of QB
performance they will be receiving from week to week, I overrode my
lines and predictions and ignored the Cardinals.), Bears, Bills,
Jets, Cowboys, and the Seahawks, who were close to not being ignored, but I passed on them. Also I was extremely close to adding the Texans, since I figure their worst case scenario is probably matching the line at 10 wins, but I passed on them as well.
The end result: My 'Locks'
(I think 6 of 8 would be decent.)
I'm
very convinced with the Dolphins, Colts, and Vikings on the under.
(Only the Bengals go unnoticed in the locks)
And
I'm somewhat convinced with all of the overs. So Steelers, Chargers, Raiders, Eagles, and Buccaneers to go over.
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