NBA Playoff Review 2012

Eastern Conference

Bulls vs 76'ers
Okay I think the pro Derrick Rose crowd, as opposed to the 'pro bench' crowd, kind of won that argument.  Just sayin'.  I wasn't extremely surprised to see Rose go down, an explosive/injury prone superstar + the intensity of the playoffs + a compressed season will tend to = injury.  If I had known beforehand D-Rose would be injured for basically all of the series, I would have picked the Bulls in 7.  So while I'm not stunned to see the Bulls lose (in a 1 vs 8 matchup) I am slightly surprised to see them lose in 5 games.  Not that a lot of people saw Philly winning this, but still, F+.

Miami vs New York.

I would say I predicted this series pretty much exactly right.  The Heat don't exactly have a killer instinct and when you combine that with LeBron playing his old buddy Carmelo, I didn't really expect them to sweep the Knicks.  So Carmelo did more or less get his lone buzzer beater playoff win.  A+

Indiana vs Orlando

Well I think the most competitive Eastern Conference series should now go to Atlanta-Boston.  So other than that fail, I think I was fairly accurate.  After taking Orlando a little to lightly in the first game, the Pacers cruised to the easy 5 game series win.  B+

Boston vs Atlanta

As I basically said before, if Atlanta had faced anyone other than Miami and Boston, I think they would have won, but they happened to play Boston.   A

While they lost to the Celtics, I was impressed by Philly's play.

4 Boston vs 8 Philly
Well so much for it being Bulls vs Celtics.  If I had known this would be the matchup I would've taken Boston in 6.  Since, as they kind of proved once again, they like to play up or down to the level of their opponents.  Not having the Bulls win this round knocked this down to a minimum of a C-, so D.

2 Miami vs 3 Indiana
Well, I would say I pretty much pegged this series exactly.  However, one misstep was that I thought Miami would take the first two at home, then the Pacers would take two at home, and then Miami would finish the remaining two games.  A

For the first two rounds of this side of the bracket I'll give myself a B+.

Western Conference

Spurs vs Jazz

While I am hoping it will end against OKC, so far the Spurs 'deep bench' hasn't in the least been a negative for them.  And, oddly enough, there series didn't end up being the only first round sweep.  Idk if there was a lot to predict here, but A.

OKC vs Dallas

This happened to be the other sweep.  While the Mavs easily could have stolen the first two games from OKC, they could not manage to stop Oklahoma from driving to the hoop early and often D+.

Los Angeles vs Denver

I would say Kobe partially played with his teammates in both series.  I thought it was somewhat laughable that Coach Mike Brown might have been on the hot seat if LAL lost game 7.  Even though I predicted the series wrong, I'm going to be lenient and give myself credit for having the guts to pick this upset (which really should have come through). C

Memphis vs LAC 

CP3 certainly dominated this series.  And while he did kind of stink it up against the Spurs, hopefully now there can be some agreement that he is the best PG in the league.  I technically think that Memphis is still the better team, and if they were to play another series next week I would still pick them.  But, it looks like this should have been my upset pick..  So it was actually the Clippers in an entertaining 7, F.

Even Griffin's force powers couldn't slow down the Spurs.

1 SA   5 Clippers

The Spurs haven't lost since early/mid April. Nothing to see here. Spurs steamrolled again. If I had known beforehand that they would be facing the Clipps, I would have taken SA in 5.  C-

2 OKC  3 LA Lakers

Maybe it was just me, but I didn't think it took a rocket scientist to decide (especially in game 4) to put Kevin Durant on Kobe.  But for some reason he didn't really start guarding him until there was about 6 or so minutes left and the Thunder were down 8 or so.  And while not all of Kobe's shots in the 4th quarter were taken with Durant guarding him, oddly enough in the 4th quarter Kobe shot 2-8, and the Thunder rallied to win on a go ahead basket from KD.
And. as a side note, while I'm being a little presumptuous and jumping the gun, I think KD can be given the 'title'--best closer in the game.  So far he has 3 go ahead baskets in this years playoffs.
The only two teams I thought before the playoffs that could beat the Thunder also happen to be two  of the '4' remaining teams in the Spurs and Heat.  And if the Thunder continue their winning ways, then they should end up playing both of them.  But anyways, back to this round..  If I had known LA would advance, I still would have picked Thunder in 6.  Again OKC played with fire in the second game, but they came through unscathed again. Not having the Lakers reach this game brings me down to a C+

I didn't call anything really special, and I had the wrong upset pick, so C-.

NBA Review and Playoff Predictions 2012

Milwaukee - Left just on the outside in the East, Jennings and company played slightly above their talent level.

Detroit - They showed occasional flashes of talent and improved a fair amount.

New Jersey - They were probably the most disappointing team to me in the East.  I'll give them a slight break since they did kind of catch the injury bug, but still, they did finish very poorly.

Toronto - They play in Canada...  Yep.  So shout out to the Canadians, and seriously a good job by Bargnani.

Cleveland - I actually like the pieces the Cavs have put together, they could be a .500 team next season.

Washington - They underachieved, but showed promise near the end.

Charlotte - A record in futility, I understand that MJ and the Bobcats were tanking...  But come on, 0.106?

Phoenix – I don’t really expect to see Steve Nash in a Suns uni again.  I thought he really lifted Phoenix from a cellar level team to a playoff caliber team.

Houston – It looked like they would be the eighth seed for quite a while, but a late season disintegration left them on the outside looking in.  I ‘stat-ed’ one of their games and they were doing a great job of getting quality looks (though it was against Sacramento so that was probably why, lol).  And their free throw form was excellent.  Overall, I think Houston actually overachieved.

Portland – A very disappointing team, Aldridge was injured for some time, but on a whole they just underachieved.

Minnesota – Rubio and Ridnour added some spark to the team, but Rubio got injured midway through the season and Ridnour was injured late and the Twolves fizzled.  K Love was absolutely sick throughout the season.  While it’s harder to make the playoffs in the West then it is in the East I think they’ll have a decent chance to make a little bit of noise next season.

Golden State – Stephen Curry and the gang didn’t really do much.

Sacramento – I also looked at one of their games and…. It disappointed to say the least.  They appear to be a fairly talented team, but lacking discipline.  If they would just do some of the basics better, like taking care of the ball and shooting closer to 80% from the line.  Then they could be an interesting team next season.

New Orleans – I thought NO and GS were the teams I was most disappointed in for the WC.  But to give the Hornets a bit of a break, they suffered the worst injury bug in the league this season.  I was looking forward to seeing Eric Gordon in a bit of a starring role, but he was one of the many Hornets players that suffered a long injury.  While they only finished with 21 wins, I think that Coach Monty Williams did a very good job with the players he was given. 

1 Chicago  4 Boston

This should be a fairly epic series.  Especially if it’s like their playoff series a few years ago.

As soon as I start to lean towards one team, I think of the other team’s strengths and lean towards them.  So I guess I’ll say they tie and both advance in 7.  Lol, but since that can’t happen, I take the Bulls in a very competitive and close 7.

2 Miami  3 Indiana

Against Chicago or Boston I would be very tempted to (and probably end up picking) Indiana to the EC finals, but we’re talking Miami here.  Miami in 6.  I’m giving a lot of credit to Indiana, but it might be too much credit considering Miami only took 5 games to beat Chicago last year.

1 SA   4 Memphis

San Antonio faces their nemesis from last year, but this time they’re running on all cylinders.  Spurs get the best of the Grizzlies in a spirited 7 games.

2 OKC – 6 Denver

Another rematch from last year.  And this year it is a little more competitive, but the Thunder are still clearly the better team.  Thunder in 6.

1 Chicago – 2 Miami

LeBron and the Heat advance to the Finals again.

Take two plays similarly to last years series.  After game 5 in Chicago, Lebron is criticized for passing to an open Chris Bosh at the end of the game (who clanks a long two) and the next game LeBron responds by taking and hitting a shot to win both the game and the series.  Miami in 6.

2 OKC – 1 SA

The Old vs The Young.  KD hits a game winner, Westbrook takes advantage of Parker’s age, and Oky City escapes with a series win in 6. (If I was more impartial I would probably predict a 7 game series, but I don’t want to have to be on the road against SA in a must win game 7)

2 OKC vs 2 Miami

I apologize for picking so many favorites.  I don’t really know when the last time was that I picked so many favorites in any sport.  I know it’s not the most inventive pick, picking OKC and Miami.  But, I was sort of ahead of the curve in that I predicted OKC – Miami before it was popular, both last season and also as a preseason prediction for this season.

If the Heat haven’t exhausted themselves by now, and Lebron is staying involved (but isn’t trying to be the killer closer), then the Heat will be nearly impossible to beat.  But, I think that Miami’s PG situation will again be their downfall. 

(Assuming they haven’t changed it)  Instead of the 2-3-2 format.  I wish the NBA would just do the normal 2-2-1-1-1 format that they use for the rest of the playoffs.  It’s hard to see Miami not taking one of the first 2 games in OKC.  And if they do that then all they have to do is take care of business at home. 

For OKC to beat the Heat, the non
 'superstars' will have to come up huge.

So from OKC’s perspective..  Win the first game by 4, lose the second by 5 in OT, win the third by 2 on a buzzer beat from KD, lose the fourth and fifth thanks to triple doubles from Lebron, win the 6^th by 5, and the Championship deciding 7^th  game they manage to win by 4.  Kevin Durant has some amazing performances throughout, so that the Thunder can barely manage a 7 game series win.  A little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, sure.  But, until I’m again proven wrong, I think that’s what’s going to happen.

So the Oklahoma City Thunder are the NBA champions, or World Champions if you prefer that.   

Western Conference Playoff Preview 2012

I did actually write this all the day of the playoffs, I'm just getting around to editing and posting it now.  

1 San Antonio  8 Utah

Many people have written off the Spurs just because of last year and maybe I will be wrong and they will flame out insanely early again.  But, Tony Parker is having maybe his best season as a pro, Ginobli is doing his thing, Duncan is still being good, and the bench has been extremely good.  It has been said that, ‘a deep bench won’t matter in the playoffs.’  Why not?  Yes, it won’t be quite as important as the regular season, but I still think they will use their bench fairly heavily in the playoffs.  This is not the Spurs of a couple years.  Their forte is no longer defense.  It’s actually now more of a run and gun offense.  So they will need their bench.

I think it’s fairly impressive that Utah made the playoffs in front of Phoenix and Houston.  A young improving team.  They’re 4^th in the league in scoring and they have been great at home as usual.

Sorry, for the lack of love for the Jazz, but in my lone sweep of the playoffs I have the Spurs in 4.

2 Oklahoma City  7 Dallas

The Thunder happen to be my favorite team.  And, by complete coincidence, they also happen to have (probably) my favorite NBA player, Kevin Durant.  I think it’s awesome that after nearly every point he scores, he’ll point to heaven, or really the roof since it kind of gets in the way, Durant points to heaven, or in another words God to give Him the glory.  In post game interviews and press conferences, he tends to be fairly liberal in his praising of Christ/God.  Doing it at most opportunities.  He’s not quite as out spoken on Christianity as Tebow is, but it is still quite obvious that he is a Christian.  If I were to ever be blessed with a situation vaguely similar to Tebow or Durant I would probably lean towards Durant’s approach.  Another aside, but I also think it’s cool that he still wears a backpack to most, or possibly all, of his press conferences.  

This is a nice opening 2 vs 7 game.  Instead of an easy New York type team, OKC gets the defending champions.  I personally would prefer that the Thunder would be facing any other Western team not named San Antonio.  I haven’t analyzed many NBA games this year (not that I have in the past either), but one of them that I have analyzed was the end of season LA vs OKC game.  And it was definitely a great game with plenty of drama and, uh, flying elbows..  Most of my analyzing tends to be fairly simple and straightforward (though it can be a bit subjective).  Kind of a like a simplified and subjective synergy.  I was grading the players shot attempts as quality or non-quality.  And one game is technically a ridiculously small sample size, but anyways here is my analysis.

Ibaka has really improved his offense from last year, and that could possibly be the difference for OKC in the playoffs this year.  Durant and Westbrook were both very much off their games (a combined 10-45), but while Durant was attempting quality shots, 16 quality and 9 non quality, Westbrook was heavily favoring the non quality shots, 4 quality and 13 non quality.  [To account for the discrepancy of shots..  I missed a small part of the 3^rd quarter, and I also don’t chart certain shots]  So it’s an extremely small sample size, I know, but KD’s quality shots were a poor 31% and his nq shots were 11%.  While Westbrook was 50% on q (2 out of 4), and a sizzling 0% on nq (Zero for thirteen). 

Part of the Thunder’s game is to push the pace, but if they would be a little more patient and pass up the contested 10 footer 7 seconds into the shot clock for the open 13 footer 17 seconds into the shot clock and if they would do just improve their patience in getting a quality shot, then I think they would be able to beat in 5 games or less 10 of the other 15 teams in the playoffs. 

Harden was taking about an even number of quality and non quality shots, yet hitting about the same of each.  Some of the shots that he made were extremely difficult and fairly amazing.  Even though he tends to come off the bench, he is probably at least the 3^rd most important player on the Thunder roster.  And, imho, the Thunder bench (including Harden) is probably tied for the best bench in the NBA. 

One thing I will say for Westbrook and the rest of the team is that they do an excellent job at the free throw line.  To give some perspective I’ll give the Lakers numbers first.  LAL was 22-2 (92%) on quality free throw attempts and 4-11 (27%) on NQ FTA, for a total of 67%.  While the Thunder were 19-1 (95%) on quality FTA and, amazingly enough, they did not attempt a single non quality FT.  And while this doesn’t have to do with anything here, I think that, while he won’t do a lot on the court, Derek Fisher will have a great impact on the Thunder locker room in the playoffs.

The defending champs are coming into the playoffs as underdogs.  I thought their loss of J.J. Barea was a fairly big loss.  Nowitizki is still hitting his one legged-turn around-fade away jump shot, and Terry is providing a lift off the bench.  But the Mavs are not really generating enough offense right now.

I hate to say it, but this would probably be the most likely 1 or 2 seed upset in the first round.  I’ll take OKC in 6.

3 Los Angeles 6 Denver

This might be the only pair of teams that I’m glad are playing each other.

I think that all of the Western conference series should be fairly compelling and competitive, except for SA-Utah (though it could still possibly have some close games, just not a close series).  One minute I convince myself to pick the Lakers and the next I’m thinking that the Nuggets will win. 

I didn’t take a ton from my analysis for the Lakers, partially because Kobe was taking his usual 20+ shots a game.  I think the best strategy for LAL would be if Kobe defers through 3 quarters and then tries to take over the fourth.  If they were to follow that, I think they could meet OKC in the Conf finals, but they almost certainly aren’t going to do that so I have them on upset alert. 

While his form was usually fairly bad, the person taking the highest amount of high quality shots (other than Jordan Hill) imo was Ron Artest.  But after a dunk on Durant, Artest threw an elbow at Harden.  And while I don’t think it was premeditated or anything like that I do think that the elbow thrown at Harden was definitely intentional and malicious.  I actually think that the Lakers really would not miss Artest very much if he ever leaves, but a sudden departure of any starting player, this close to playoff time is almost certainly going to have a detrimental affect on the Lakers.  

The next highest quality shots were by Sessions, and I thought he did a decent job of attacking the hoop.  Bynum and Gasol came up next with a decent 2-1 ratio of quality to non quality attempt.  But Bynum sat the fourth, and neither player was fed the ball enough. 

Last on the list was, oddly enough, Kobe Bryant.  While he took and made some very tough and impressive contested shots, unless he was tired, he really should have just tried to take Sefolosha almost every time.  On quality looks he was 50%, and on non quality looks he was 28% (5-13).  One of the best players of all time, and still the best game closer.  But, imho, he needs to defer if he wants to have a chance at a 6^th ring.

Denver has Javale Mcgee and stuff.  And on a serious note I have been a Ty Lawson fan for about two years, and I think he is probably a top 5 PG.

 So yeah, this is more of an anti LA pick then a pro Denver pick, but in the end I think that Artest’s disgraceful elbow throw will cost the Lakers the series.  Denver in 7.

4 Memphis – 5 LAC 

The Clippers have CP3, probably the best PGin the game, while Griffin has good name ID and amazing dunks he is not yet the star and all-around player that his popularity should warrant.

The Grizzlies will be looking to unleash their tenacity of last year’s playoffs.  If they succeed in doing that against LAC, it is quite possible they could take it in 5.  As it is though, I will take the Grizzlies in an entertaining 6.

Eastern Conference Playoff Preview 2012

Two posts in a row that are almost theoretically relevant and on time, amazing I know.  If I ever have some time and get around to it, then sometime I plan on getting around to doing some blogs about politics and finishing my recapping of the remaining ‘unrecapped’ teams in the NFL.  Maybe someday, lol.

I wrote this over the last couple days, and by now day one of the playoffs is nearly over.  And surprisingly it was a fairly eventful first day, with Miami putting a beat-down on NY as expected, Derrick Rose suffering a season ending injury, and the Pacers having home court taken from them.

Eastern Conference

1 Chicago faces 8 Philadelphia.

I thought it was funny when some people (including Skip Bayless--a person whom I usually agree with) were saying that Chicago plays better without Derrick Rose.  And they would site the Bulls record with and without him as proof of their argument.  Hahaha.  If they would do some very simple math they would see that Chicago’s record without Rose 17-7 is virtually the same as their record with him 30-12.  Both are approximately equal to a 70% winning rate.  And I’ll grant that a fairly injured Rose is worse than a healthy CJ Watson.  But, if Rose is healthy then he is definitely the better player.  I would say that Chicago is a 5 type seed without Rose.  But, with him they achieve the first seed (again) and probably reach the Eastern Conference finals (again). 

Philly has a nice cast of players.  My favorite player of theirs is Evan Turner.  There are not many teams that are playoff caliber teams and yet do not have a preferred player to run their offense, but Philly is making another run to the playoffs without a star player.

Two system/execution type teams so this could possibly be an interesting matchup, but I see the Bulls taking it in 5.

2 Miami facing 7 New York.

Miami is basically the favorite of the East.  I have been glad that Miami has lost a couple games so that they have the 4^th best record in the NBA.  So they at least won’t be the prohibitive favorite. Imho this is kind of a horrible matchup for both teams.  On the bright side this will probably be the highest scoring matchup in the East. 

I have never been a huge of Coach Mike D’antoni so I thought that firing him was one of the best things the Knicks did all year.  I hope he gets a job with a Charlotte, Milwaukee, or another small market bottom team.  I think that he works the best when he has stars in a small market, aka Phoenix a couple years back.  Even if you have Stoudemire and Carmelo, imho it is very hard to win in the NBA without playing about half the game.  Or namely he doesn’t emphasize defense enough. 

New York finally gets to see Lebron playing in MSG in a playoff game…  But, he happens to be playing for the wrong team.

Also New York should finally get a playoff win.  A buzzer beater playoff win.  Actually I’m not even sure NY can accomplish that.  But assuming they can take a game, maybe they will have actually have a chance..  Yeah, right.  Miami in 5.

3 Indiana 6 Orlando

And now for the no name series, at least to most of the populace.  Even though Indiana is a 3 seed, if they were to do manage to get to the Finals I highly doubt that more than 00.3% of NBA fans would have predicted that. (and 94% of those few fans would happen to be Indy fans) 

Plenty of turmoil with D Howard throughout the season.  Orlando isn’t a bad team, but if they wouldn’t have D Howard (for any time this season) I wonder if they even would have beaten out Philly for the 8^th seed. 

This might be the most competitive series in the East, I have the Pacers advancing in 6.

4 Boston 5 Atlanta

If they're healthy, then Rondo, Allen, Garnett, Pierce, and Bradley forms such a sick lineup.  The Celtics really put something together since the all star break with the best record in the NBA. 

I would say Atlanta has about a 20% chance to play spoiler.  And that would be being fairly favorable.  Imho a horrible matchup for Atlanta, I think they would prefer to be playing any other team in the East. 

Boston in 6.

MLB Preview 2012

The random numbers above the division, like AL East 1, are my rankings of the AL and NL divisions combined.  So I think that the AL East is the toughest division in baseball, while the NL Central is the easiest.

American League

AL East 1     

Yankees    96-66   Manager Girardi and the Yankees win the division.   

Red Sox     95-67   Less beer, and they make the playoffs…  Coincidence?

Blue Jays  83-79    They play meaningful games in August.

Rays          82-80   In a lesser division they probably make the playoffs, but all the Rays get in the AL East is 4^th place.

Orioles      63-99    The Orioles get rolled in the toughest division in baseball.

 

AL Central 5           

Kansas City 86-76   With a payroll ½ the size of Detroit’s, KC makes the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

Detroit         84-78   Detroit suffers some injuries and finishes just outside playoff contention.

Cleveland   81-81    Masterson and the Indians remain competitive.

Minnesota  76-86    Minnesota improves slightly from last year, but it looks like they should have kept their old stadium.

Chicago      75-87   No Ozzie Guillen improves the Sox slightly, but not enough to even get out of last place.

AL West 3        

Angels           96-66       Pujols and Weaver lead the Angels to the best record in the AL.         

Rangers         90-72      The Rangers don't control the division this year, but they still make the playoffs.  

Seattle           73-89      Jesus Montero plays very well and Seattle doesn’t lose 90.

Oakland         72-98      Oakland underachieves slightly and almost lose a hundred. 

National League

NL East 2   

Philadelphia 97-65     The Phillies great pitching staff rolls through the NL.

Marlins         89-93     The Marlins huge payroll partially pays off, and they reach the playoffs.

Atlanta          88-74     No late season collapse this time for the Braves.

Washington  80-82     Strasburg and the nationals almost make .500.  

New York     72-90     The Mets try to pay off some of their debts.  Oh and they finish with 90 losses.

NL Central 6       

Cincinnati     87-75      The Reds pitching leads them to their 2^nd division title in 3 years.    

Milwaukee   85-77      Milwaukee is left just a couple games out the playoffs.      

St. Louis       84-78      St. Louis remains a fine team, but they are unable to defend their title.  

Pittsburgh     81-81      Pittsburgh has their first non losing season in 17 years.    

Chicago        73-89      Well, same old Cubs.. For this year anyways.

Houston        53-109    Houston leaves the NL as somewhat of a laughing stock.  

NL West 4             

San Francisco  90-72    No offense once again, but their first rate pitching leads them to the division title.

Arizona            85-77   They compete for the division, but fall short come September.

LA Dodgers      80-82   The ‘other’ LA team remains competitive, but falls just short of .500.         

Colorado          78-84   The offense improves from last year, but it can practically only go up considering last season.

San Diego        73-89   SD is not a bad team, but I think the other teams in their division are superior.    

AL Championship: - Angels over Yankees

NL Championship: - Phillies over Giants

World Series: - I am probably buying too much into Albert Pujols and Jered Weaver, but I have the Angels over the Phillies in the WS.

NFC Preview 2011

NFC East
Philadelphia 11

Philly is coached by Andy Reid A-.  With the FA acquisition of Nnamdi Asomugha A, their defense got a nice upgrade.  Draft spotlight none. Qb is Michael Vick, opponents started to figure him out near the end of the year, but you can’t really teach speed.  He’s a good QB A-.  Rushing attack led by LeSean McCoy B- Defense is likely going to be nasty, A-. I’d ignore the O/U.  start 6-3 and finish 5-2  so 11-5.

Dallas Cowboys 10

Draft spotlight none QB – Tony Romo.  Romo's arm is good and his mobility is a bit underrated B+.  Rushing game led by  Felix Jones B- Defense is generally solid B.  O/U is probably over.  I couldn’t really decide between Dallas making the playoffs and the Giants, but I guess I’ll give the nod to Dallas (sorry N.Y.)  7-2 finish 4-3 so 11-5.  (but Philly wins the tiebreaker)

New York Giants 10

New York has had a few late season collapses lately, but not this year…  This year they’ll just start out poorly and finish well.  Jk, kind of..   Qb – Eli Manning maybe slightly overrated by some and the opposite by others, I think he’s barely worse than a pro-bowl QB, B-.  Rushing attack –   Ahmad Bradshaw  B-.   Defense is a B+.  O/U idk.  They start out 6-4 and finish 4-2 so 10-6.

Washington Redskins 6

 They ‘lost’ Donovan Mccnab, to Minnesota.  And Washington will trust either Rex Grossman or John Beck to lead them to the playoffs.  And guarantees by Grossman aside, I don’t see it happening.  QB likely led by Grossman C+.  Rushing attack led by Ryan Torain C+  Defense if fair B-.  I’d take the U. I have them starting 3-6 and finishing 1-6 therefore 4-12.  I could see them reaching 7-9 or possibly 8-8, but I don’t see them exceeding .500, much less the playoffs.

NFC North 

Green Bay  11

The strange thing about Green Bay is that last year they (obviously) won the SB.  Why is that strange, you ask…  Well the Packers were (relatively speaking) devastated last year with injuries, so generally, since things tend to even out, you would think that this year they would have fewer injuries.  If that would occur, then a 13-3 or 14-2 record would be a possibility for the Packers. 

 Aaron Rodgers is a very good QB A-, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t know if he is a top 5 Qb yet.  Running attack is led by Brandon Jackson   B- Defense is slightly underrated, imho they are a top 5 D  I’d give them a A-.   I have them starting the season 7-5 and finishing 4-0 for a record of 11-5.

 Minnesota  8

Brett Favre has retired.  Sorry, had to throw in a Favre mention, lol.  Donovan Mcnabb was picked up from Washington B-.  I think he has a couple of good years left.  Draft acquisitions Christian Ponder, he’s an interesting QB, right now imho he’s a C-, but I think if you give him time he could be a B.  Rushing attack led by Brett Favre... Sorry just threw that in to see if you were paying attention.  Actually AP or Adrian Peterson is their Rb, he has been a fantasy beast over the years A+.

Their WRs are led by Percy Harvin, who is a great weapon, but not necessarily a very tall receiver…  anyways, since I brought them up, the WRs get a C+.  The Defense is solid, B-.  6-4 then 4-2 to finish 10-6.

Chicago 9

Coached by Lovie Smith.    Qb Jay Cutler…. First off to those who think he’s soft, let’s see you get a knee injury and play through it.  Now that we’ve got the ‘toughness’ question aside…. I actually don’t think he’s even as good as his back-up Caleb Hanie B-.  However Cutler has to live with a bad O-line, so I’ll give him a C+. 

Running attack led by  Matt Forte B- Wide receiving core is slightly pathetic (no offense) D+.  Defense is solid when Brian Urlacher is healthy B+.  I’d take the under.  I like Coach Smith, but I don’t know if he can make it past this season.  6-4 then, 2-4, the bears finish 8-8.

Detroit Lions 7

Interesting to see the number so high.. The front office has done a great job of building through the draft.  Draft acquisitions Mikel Leshoure B+ who was injured and will be out all season. If Matthew Stafford remains healthy.., (and he is not ‘injury prone’ he has just had to work with a bad OL) then the Lions can be more than competitive this year and actually win a fair number of games.  Stafford B-.

Rushing attack Jahvid Best and company C+ The Defensive line might be the best in the NFL and is ‘anchored’ by Ndamukong Suh who is nasty. The D get’s a B. I’d stay away from the O/U line.  If things go right, the Lions could be an amazing turn around story and finish 9-7 or 10-6.  But they’ll probably lose a couple of players and finish 8-8.

NFC South

Atlanta 11

The NFC South has not had the same division winner for quite a few years, but I’ll predict it ends this year.  Draft acquisitions  J. Rodgers B-  QB, Matt Ryan is a great young QB, though with the weapons at WR and the OL he has, you or I could maybe complete 40% of our passes.  But seriously he’s good, A-.  A solid running back in Michael Turner B- Great WRs and TE they picked up Julio Jones A- (for an extremely heavy draft cost) to add to Tony Gonzalez and company B+  D is fair B-.  I’d stay away from the O/U or take the U.  Atlanta 8-2 then 4-2 and finish 12-4.

New Orleans 11

They have Drew Brees, need I say more?

Okay I suppose I will.. They lost Reggie Bush, while sure he’s an extremely high-priced Rb commodity he’s a very good, fast player Qb Brees A-.  Rushing attack led by Chris Ivory C+ Defense is a B.  6-4 then 5-1 and finishes 11-5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  9

Raheem Morris B+ is their coach. Starting QB is Josh Freeman, and backup Josh Johnson are both very good.  Freeman had a ‘breakout’ year last year and led TB to an 11-5 record. Freeman B+ Rushing Attack led by Legarrette Blount had a good year last year (which I expected) B+ D is a B+.  O/U I guess I'll take the under.  I should almost definitely think higher of the Bucs, but Idk.  While the Bucs lack ‘star power’, TB is full of young B- players who if they gel could make the playoffs this year.  However..  (Sorry Tampa fans) 4-4,  2-6 to finish 6-10

Carolina Panthers 5

This will basically be a new era for the Panthers, new HC and new QB.  Draft spotlight K. Pilares B+ QB Cam Newton (much hyped, esp. since he’s the last high paid #1 pick, though side-note I think getting paid 2 mil a year is a lot too.  Newton is often compared to Tebow (and since Tebow is my favorite player I don't entirely mind the comparison) and somewhat fairly, but I think that Newton is going to stay in the pocket more than Tebow stays in the pocket.  I would compare Newton instead to Aaron Rodgers.  Newton C+ right now, but within 5 years he should be a B or B+.  Rushing attack is led by Jonathon Stewart C. D is poor yet underrated C+.  2-6, then 3-5, to finish 5-11.

NFC West

St. Louis Rams  7½

The Rams looked impressive in their preseason win over the Colts, albeit the Colts didn't have Manning, since he was injured.  I liked their draft acquisition of Greg Salas and Austin Pettis, both, imho, should have decent rookie years.  I really like Sam Bradford and I don't expect much of a sophomore slump. I'd give their passing attack a  B+.

The Rams' running game is quite solid with Steven Jackson A-. And their defense is so-so, C-, they probably played above their level last year, but hopefully for Rams fans they can exceed expectation this year as well.  The Rams have a very tough schedule for the first 8 weeks, but after that (if you don't count @ Pittsburgh) then their toughest game is... what... @Seattle?  I would stay away from the over under.  I have St. Louis starting the season only 2-6, but ending on a 5-3 winning streak to finish the season  7-9.    I predict them to win the division.... though I do hope they get to .500.  

Seattle Seahawks 7½

Draft acquisitions of O-line so I can’t tell you much about them..  Sorry.  They ‘lost’ Matt Hasselbeck to ‘FA’ (namely Tennessee), the Seahawks wanted to go in another direction.  Which is somewhat understandable considering Hasselbeck is 35. They acquired Tavaras Jackson and WR Sidney Rice from MN.  Qb D+ 

Their running game is led by Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett. B-  If you’ve watched any NFL at all, then I’m guessing you have seen the run by Marshawn Lynch against the Saints in the playoffs, and if you haven’t, then check it out on YouTube.  Nasty run.

Defense is a C-  I have them starting the season 2-6 and finishing 4-4, meaning a 6-10 record.  I could see them winning 7, but it’s fairly hard to get to 8 wins, I definitely would  take the under.

Arizona Cardinals 6½

Since losing Kurt Warner the QB situation has been dreadful in AZ.  (why am I bringing Warner up you ask?  'cause I'm a fan.)  They traded for Kevin Kolb C+, and drafted Peterson, over the offseason.

I don't think Kolb will be as good as most people think, but I think he'll put up good passing 'yards' (not necessarily TD's..) though I wouldn't be too surprised to see my expectations exceeded. They have Chris Wells (an OSU alumni) [I'm a fan of OSU] to carry their running game, I'd rate it a B-.  And their D is slightly underrated, but at the same time fairly bad, D+.

I kind of expect the Cards to have another bad season, sorry Cards fans. It was hard not to give the Cards more wins considering they have Kolb at Qb, and their schedule..  I think their schedule is (probably) the easiest in NFL, if you take out Pitt, @Balt, and @Philly then their toughest game is... vs Dallas?  So they have an outrageously easy schedule, but that's what you get for playing in the NFC West (and yes I tried to ignore that when other people criticized it when Warner was QB).  Anyways though, I have the Cardinals starting 2-7 and finishing on a 4-4 run. An overall record of 5-11 for the AZ Cards.

San Francisco 49ers 7½

The 49ers lost to the Saints in their first preseason game 24-3.  Jim Harbaugh is their head coach, since the 49ers fired Mike Singletary last year.  I was against the firing then and I'm still (slightly) against it..  They lost Troy Smith...\ cut him.  I thought he was their best QB last year, plus he has mobility, which is a huge advantage onsidering the offensive line they have. Draft acquisitions, Kaepernick and Hunter.  I expect both to be good, but they'll probably receive limited playing time this year.

Passing attack is led by Alex Smith he gets a D, if the 49ers wanted to cut a Smith they probably should have cut Alex.  Though no offense meant at him, he has had to suffer through many different Qb coaches and head coaches in his career. I normally don't mention O-lines, but this one, imho, is fairly bad. D-

Rushing attack is led by Frank Gore (and possibly Hunter), Gore has been a fantasy monster over the years and is probably a top 5 running back  A.  The Defense is thought (by others) to be good, but I think it's fairly porous, but it was improved slightly through the draft C-.  I have them starting the season 2-6 and finishing on a 2-6 run, for a 4-12 record.  I would consider it a relative lock that they will finish under 7½ wins.

There are a couple of reasons for optimism for the 49ers. I'm not an expert, so maybe they'll actually finish 12-4, but I doubt it.  Seriously though, the 49ers are a young team, and if they finish 4-12 then it's quite possible that they will get the first draft pick, likely meaning Andrew Luck.  I'm not sure if the front office is intentionally tanking the season or not, but I expect SF to be one of the bottom 5 teams this year.   I have the 49ers finishing tied for the fewest wins in the NFL.  

Thanks for reading.

AFC Preview 2011

Hello, I am writing this blog to record my predictions, provide some letter grades to players and hopefully a little bit of insight, and if anyone would end up (for some reason) reading it and liking it, then that would be cool.  Feel free to comment and subscribe.

I originally wrote this in preseason week 2, but by now it's the end of preseason...  So sorry if things are slightly messed up.  I am going to be predicting the Over/Under, O/U, for each NFL team, and give a little insight into how good I think a team's players are.  Thanks for reading.

The NFL

AFC East
New England 11
With Tony Dungy A and Jeff Fisher A- out of the league, imho they have the best coach in the NFL, Bill Belichick A.  Draft picks Ryan Mallet C- and ceiling of B QB – Albert Haynesworth F+..  wait that’s not their QB?  Oh yeah, that one guy… what’s his name?  Tom Brady  A, arguably the best QB in the game, (though I would not make the argument, since I am not a fan.)

Rushing attack led by BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead B- Defense A-.  Last year the Patriots were nasty, losing only to the Ryan brothers..  (Cleveland, and the N.Y. Jets twice.)  O/U pass. So sorry, but I am not predicting much out of the ordinary for NE.  A start of 7-2,  a finish of 5-2, and an overall record of 12-4.

Miami 8

Notable draft pick, Darren Thomas B+ Didn’t trade for Orton, but instead settled for Chad Henne.  QB, Henne is not a pro-bowl type QB, however he is not as bad as most people think and last year finished 15 in yards.... not that yards matter a ton, but he's not completely horrible, Henne C. Rushing attack is led by Reggie Bush, extremely versatile but not exactly a 20 carries a game guy B-   Defense B-  I don't think they have a lot of hope for the playoffs. O/U under starts 3-6,   finishes 5-2, 8-8.

New York Jets  9

Here I finally go off the beaten path a little, I expect the Jets to fall back to earth slightly.  Draft picks Greg McElroy  Coached by Rex Ryan D+.  QB – Mark Sanchez, I’m not high on Sanchez at all..  D+ currently with a ceiling of B-.  Rushing attack led by Shonn Greene B+   Defense is thought by others to be a top 3 D, but this year I think they’re closer to a top 10 Defense,  B+.  O/U Under definitely.  5-4, 3-5, 7-9.

Buffalo Bills 6

Improving young team, solid coach. B-..  Draft acquisitions  no notables... sorry  QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick B.  Rushing attack C-.  Defense B-.  O/U under.  Buffalo could be a .500 team if the breaks fall their way this year… But I don’t really expect them to,  2-7, 2-4, 4-11.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens 11

Draft pick spotlight - Tyrod Taylor  C- ceiling of B+   Coached by Jim Harbaugh  B-  QB – Joe Flacco, who is pretty much the definition of ‘game manager’, a solid but not spectacular B.  Rushing attack led by Ray Rice B+ Defense is probably the best in the NFL A. O/U maybe under.  They're good enough to make the AFC championship, but not much more.  5-2, then 6-3, 11-5 overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers 11

Played in the Super Bowl last year, and if Roethlisberger had played all year, then they probably would have won it.  Draft pick spotlight none  QB – Roethlisberger B-. Rushing attack led by Rashard Mendenhall B+  Defense A-.  6-3 then 4-3, 10-6.  I have them making the playoffs with the second wild card.

Cleveland Browns 6

First off I’m probably too high on Cleveland.   QB is Colt McCoy C+ ceiling of a B+ or maybe an A-.  Rushing attack led by (Madden cover) Peyton Hillis A-.  Defense B+.  O/U Idk/pass.  3-6 and finish 4-3, 7-9 overall.

Cincinnati Bengals 6

Carson Palmer is a holdout right now, so these predictions are based on Andy Dalton being their QB.  Draft acquisitions   Dalton who I will get to..  This should be another rebuilding year for the Bengals.  This is just my opinion mind you… But I don’t understand what they’re (referring to Cincinnati's GM and the front office of Cincinnati) doing in Cincinnati, they keep getting players who don’t exactly have a clean record, (Also I find it weird that they drafted Andy Dalton, who went to TChristanU, unless they’re trying to change their image.) but if they were really trying to change, then they would just trade Palmer...(btw Palmer’s a good guy I’m just saying that the player [in this case] should get what he wants… [to be traded])

Okay enough of that (Cincy used to be my favorite team, but due to their horrible moves... I moved on to the Cards, due to Warner and now the Broncos, due to Tebow.), QB- Andy Dalton C- ceiling of B+.  Rushing attack led by Cedric Benson B- WRs are young and improving B-. Defense C-.   O/U, Under.  2-7, 3-4, to finish 5-11.

AFC South

Sorry, this is a bit of a slanted division…  I expect it to be an extremely close division.  And I wouldn’t be surprised by anyone making the playoffs, except for Tennessee, sorry Hasselbeck and Titans fans.

Jacksonville 8

I like the Jags since David Garrard is such a decent guy.  Coached by Jack Del Rio B.  Draft picks  Blaine Gabbert, who is now the ‘QB of the future’ so if Garrard struggles, the front office will feel a lot of pressure to see Gabbert..  (If Flordia fans actually complain….) Quick rant… I understand the weather is generally great there and all (though somewhat warm) but seriously, why can’t fans in Florida just go to Marlins or Heat games??  Anyways, Garrard B+, and Gabbert C+ with a ceiling of A-.

Rushing attack led by  Maurice Jones-Drew  A-  Their best receiver might be a TE…. whose name is Marcedes Lewis.. WR C+  Defense is somewhat poor, C-.  O/U I’d say Over but I’m biased.  The Jags start 4-4 and finish 6-2,    10-6 and win the division.

Indianapolis Colts  11

I think the Colts are a great, classy, Christian organization.  Draft spotlight none.  'Experts' are always waiting for (and predicting) the Colts not to make the playoffs.  And since I’m totally an expert.. I predict this is the year they finish 4-12..  Jk.  No, seriously though, while I don’t have them winning the division, I do have them in the playoffs.  Coached by  Jim Caldwell  B+   Back-up Qb’s are relatively awful… (since I wrote this, they have picked up Kerry Collins C-)  QB is who else.. Peyton Manning. The only way the Colts could finish 4-12 is if Manning was seriously injured, which considering he’s started 208 (and change) games in a row, is not very likely (though it is still possible).

I do not often mention TE’s, (especially back-up TE’s) but they have a great back-up named Jacob Tamme.  Rushing attack led by Donald Brown and Joseph Addai carry the load C+ Defense is okay B.  Idk O/U   The Colts start 7-2, then 3-4 to finish 10-6. 

  

Houston Texans 9

Draft spotlight none..  They are a team that is perpetually predicted to make the playoffs (by the 'experts').  This year I would have them in the playoffs, if I didn’t like the Jags.  Coached (still) by Gary Kubiak C+  QB is Matt Schaub great numbers on a mediocre team B+.  RB is  Arian Foster breakout year last year B+   WR Andre Johnson A, the rest of the WR’s B-.  Defense is poor, but I think upgraded this year B-.  start 4-4 and finish 6-4  10-6.  As you have probably noticed it is a three way tie in the division so the Texans could easily make the playoffs. 

Tennessee  7

Draft acquisitions - they picked Jake Locker B- with a ceiling of an A.  Coached no longer by Jeff Fisher A-  they at least hired another good coach, Mike Munchak B+ QB – they decided to pick up Hasselbeck to try and remain competitive,  B+. RB is of course Chris Johnson, assuming he gets paid and starts the season (He was and he should), then he could again be a top 3 RB, A+.  Defense C.  O/U under.  If they were in the AFC West or NFC West, they’d practically be a lock to make the playoffs, but they’re in the tough AFC South so..  3-4 then 4-5  to finish 7-9.

AFC West 
Denver Broncos 6

First off Tebow, Tebow.  Draft Acquisitions  Von Miller B+ Coached by John Fox C+..  Despite asking Miami if they wanted Orton, for only a 2^nd round pick.,  Miami passed. (bad decision by Miami, if you ask me)   So the Broncos were left with a bit of a QB controversy, and had to decide to go with the fan favorite or (for now) the better QB.  So instead of playing for the future, it looks like Orton will be the starting QB on September 11. 

As you probably can tell I am a Tebow fan.  So I politely disagree with the decision.  However, Orton is a perpetually underrated QB and is a solid B+.  While I don’t normally give back-ups rankings,  Tebow gets one, B- with a ceiling of an A. 

Rushing attack led by Knowshon Moreno    Defense is pathetic but was upgraded with the draft  C+.  O/U Idk. I could give you two separate predictions, one with Tebow at QB and one with Orton..  But I’ll just join them together, 4-4 to start then 4-4 to finish 8-8.  The AFC West was biased, by me, to get Denver into the playoffs, so they’ll probably finish lower but I am biased so I’m not sure.

San Diego Chargers 9

If I wouldn’t have picked Denver due to Tebow, I definitely would have picked SD to win the division. Draft spotlight none. Coached by Norv Turner B-  Qb- Phillip Rivers is another perpetually underrated QB due mostly to his playoff failures, (except against the Colts), but he’s almost always a pro-bowler level QB A-.  Rushing attack led by Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews C+  Defense is extremely good, A.  O/U I have no idea.  As I have said I am biased, so I have San Diego starting 5-4 and finishing 3-4, 8-8.  And oddly enough the Chargers lose the tiebreaker to Denver. (Sorry Charger's fans)

Oakland Raiders 8

The Raiders could be this year's surprise team..  Last year the Raiders beat up on the division going 6-0, though they were 2-8 the rest of their games.  QB - Jamarcus 'Campbell'...  Sorry ,sorry... no it's actually Jason Campbell B+   Rushing-  Darren McFadden B+ Defense B+. Despite the good ratings  I’d take the U.  I have the Raiders competing for the division early, 4-4, but falling apart late 2-6, 6-10 overall.

Kansas City Chiefs 7

Coached by Todd Haley. Draft spotlight none     I don’t know if KC will be able to put up even 20 ppg.  No offense to Matt Cassel, but he isn’t that great. (not that he’s under a good system for good QB numbers, though..)  QB – Matt Cassel C-.  #1 rushing attack last year, led by Jamaal Charles and I think their running game will take a step back this year, (finish in the 20’s) still gets a B though (since I could be wrong..). Defense is average C+.  Definitively Under, the Chiefs are competitive early 4-5, but they finish 1-6,  5-11.