The longer the series goes, the less likely that SA will win. Even though that kind of goes against Gregg Popovich being a great coach, I think that because I don't know if SA can win game 6 in Miami and I'm fairly certain that they couldn't win a game 7.
WOW. Miami and the Spurs are certainly the class of the playoffs. SA boasts a 10.1 net scoring margin while Miami has a 9.6 net scoring margin. The next closest, the Knicks, are at 2.7! Obviously part of this is due to Miami and the Spurs completely crushing their first round opponents, but that is still quite impressive for both teams.
There are quite a few similarities in each teams' stats.
The Heat haven't lost consecutive games since JANUARY. Depending on how you want to count.. That is 6, six, SIX months ago. That is quite incredible. So if the trend were to continue, then to lockup the series the Heat would only have to win game 1.
PG Cole or Chalmers vs Tony Parker
Cole was not really a heavy usage player in the regular season, but due to some improved play he has seen his minutes tick up in the playoffs. Win Shares despises Cole. I think that Cole defending Parker makes a ton of sense. Cole should do a very decent job.
Chalmers is very inconsistent (partly due to limited shots per game), sometimes he'll toss up 20 points and the next game he'll only get 8.
Tony Parker has been a fairly legit bronze MVP the last two years. In the last series he had an 18 assist (and 15 point) game and a 37 point game. Very impressive stuff.
Obviously the edge is going to the Spurs, but it is not by a tremendous margin.
SG Dwayne Wade vs Danny Green
Wade has been struggling a lot as of late. His jumper is erratic (especially thanks to him taking NQ shots) and he usually does not have the energy to blow by his man.
Danny Green has a TS% in the area of Lebron and Parker, but only takes about 8 shots a game.
Unless D-Wade regains his 2012 form, then this could actually be a very even matchup. Slight edge Miami.
SF Lebron James vs Kawhi Leonard
Lebron James can turn in a triple double in any given game, or simply toss in 35 and be a lockdown defender. He's the best player on the planet, and he wants to add another ring to his hand.
Kawhi Leonard is a player who has grown by leaps and bounds since coming into the league. However, he will be vastly over matched against Lebron. Leonard's ability to cut and hit 3s will be key in having good spacing for the Spurs.
No offense to Leonard, but the definitive edge here kind of goes with out saying.. Miami.
PF Udonis Haslem vs Tim Duncan
Haslem provided some absolutely critical baskets in the Pacers series and he actually provided an offensive spark... Occasionally.
Tim Duncan is the most polished PF in the game, and while he is not often talked about as this.. He is one of the best players of all time. If he turns in a performance significantly less than 20 and 10, then a fan of the Spurs is generally surprised.
Not as bad a matchup in terms of pure athleticism/freakishness for Haslem, but Duncan has many more post moves than Hibbert and Duncan even has a fairly reliable jumper. Solid edge to the Spurs.
C Chris Bosh vs Tiago Splitter (which I always hear in Stephen A's condescending voice)
Chris Bosh was actually having a decent playoff run up until 4 games ago (though his rebounding problems started in G1 against Indy), since that point his shooting has suffered tremendously. I expect both aspects to improve considerably against Splitter.
Tiago Splitter is an underrated player and he's only been in the league 3 years, so he can certainly improve even more. He may not stuff the box score, but his defense is quite decent.
Not a considerable edge, but still a definitely noticeable edge to Miami.
The remaining 4 players I'll attempt to matchup according to position.
SG Ginobili vs SG Allen
Ginobili is saying that he is now fairly healthy, the problem is that he and the Spurs face the Heat's swarming defense. I don't expect great things from Ginobili in this series.
Allen has had a bit of a cold stretch, but I expect him to have a good series. His quick release threes will provide plenty of extra spacing for the other Heat players to have decent driving lanes.
Generally Ginobili would win the battle here, but in this series I think Allen will have the very slight upper hand. Miami.
PG Gary Neal vs SG Mike Miller
Gary Neal is a decent backup point guard, but he will likely lose the battle against Cole and Chalmers.
Depending on matchups and foul trouble, etc, Miller may be getting single digit minutes this series, or he could be a semi-relevant bench player. I'm expecting most of the former, but still he should get more minutes than last series.
Neal wins somewhat comfortably, due to the lack of minutes for Miller. Spurs.
C Boris Diaw vs PF Shane Battier or C Chris Anderson
Diaw puts up even less numbers than Splitter, don't expect too much impact from him this series either.
(also just wanted to throw in that I think Dejuan Blair is an underrated player who I hope (Since I'm picking the Heat) will not be getting any serious minutes in the Finals.)
Shane Battier has been very cold from deep lately, though I still think he should be getting more minutes. Now that the Heat are past the Pacers, he should get a few more minutes.
Chris Anderson (obviously) isn't actually the MVP of the Heat, even though I sometimes I joke that he is. Anderson provides a great spark for the Heat. Effectively speaking, he doesn't do a lot on the box score, the thing is that he provides so many great bench minutes that would otherwise be going to someone like (and no offense meant to him or others) Joel Anthony. Heat.
Coaching
Erik Spoelstra vs Gregg Popovich
Erik Spoelstra had some odd matchups in the last series, but I don't really expect too many problems in this series.
Gregg Popovich has kind of obliterated the opposing coach in each series, and he is actually the main reason why I see this series going 6. If the coaches were swapped, then I would take the Heat in a very comfortable 5. Spurs.
Miami Crowd vs SA Crowd
No big advantage to either side here. Miami's crowd has finally started to realize the Heat are good, and SA's crowd has basically been coming all season. Push.
** Quick aside
Looks like the 'curse' of being named Coach of the Year has struck again. Coach Karl is out, despite winning 57 games and losing a key player right before the playoffs. I don't completely hate the move or anything, because Coach Karl may not be a great coach, but still he was a very competent coach, who at least gets his team into the playoffs (effectively) each and every year. I think a great spot for him to coach is in Charlotte, not as some sort of punishment or anything, but because I think he could get the best out of that young team, and provide much more exciting and fast-paced basketball for the city. (Not that I'm saying I want Steve Clifford to be fired or anything, while he is unproven, I generally like 'no name' hires, and as such I kind of think Clifford will do a decent job.)
FINALS PREDICTION
Miami is the first team facing SA that I thought could actually beat the Spurs.. Except for the Lakers anyways. (/cough) And SA is the first team facing Miami that I think could possibly beat the Heat.
Best case for the Spurs, win in 6. Best case for the Heat, win in 4.
Yeah, I might be too favorable to the Heat, but honestly other than the Duncan matchup, I think the Heat should do quite well in this series. Overall the matchups claim to be somewhat close, Miami won the matchups in this count, 5-4 with a push.
The Heat are 12-1 in their playoffs series in the Big Three Era... 12-1. And yet people still complain that the Heat aren't 'good' enough.. What a joke. This may be because people love to 'hate' the Heat, but seriously folks can be very dense sometimes. According to SportsNation (Scientific, no, but I don't know why anyone would want to mess with the results.) the Pacers were favorites (by the public) 51-49 over the Heat, and the same 51-49 is what the public favors the Spurs over the Heat. This might be the only situation where the PU Spurs should actually be the somewhat heavy underdogs.
I have the Heat winning in 6, though I certainly thought about other possibilities. This is the least certain I have been about a series since the first round.
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