Griz vs Spurs G3 and Heat vs Pacers G 6-7 Notes and Statistical Breakdown, 2013

Well, that was certainly a long post name.  I couldn't think of many other decent shortened versions, so I just went with that.

Grizzlies vs Spurs Game 3
Here are my notes from this game.
Duncan is still getting breakaway dunks at 37?
Pondexter "foul"
Spurs almost never stop moving..!
Spurs are playing 'small ball', Bonner at the PF.
Amazing Spurs touch pass from high post.  (This was a very impressive play and the Spurs did it twice with different players)  Similar to this, only from the High Post.  The two plays resulted in easy layup attempts each time.
Parker is always probing.
Ugh, hate the high pick and roll chuck.
Memphis Griz logo looks nice.  (random)
Great pushes by Tony Allen. (He had quite a few fastbreak layups)
Diaw's threes resulted in good things.
Nasty back door cut by Leonard.
Good Hammer action from the Spurs.

If you have any questions about the graph, then please ask away.
Whoops..  I did this for two out of three graphs, but in the future I'll try not to block out part of the graph with the mouse 'tips'.
These graphs and the numbers therein are based on charting a game as to whether a player is taking quality shots and being a quality defender or the opposite.
Some of the main points from this graph are that on a possession to possession basis (based entirely on what kind of offensive look they were getting for this stat) the Spurs 'should' average 1.20 pts and the Grizzlies should average 1.17.  Both defenses gave the same overall number for defensive rating 1.12 (A higher number is good in both cases).  So overall the raw numbers have the Spurs with the very slight advantage per offensive possession, 1.11 to the Grizzlies 1.09.

The expected score for the game when adjusted for defense is Grizzlies 104.6 to Spurs 92.0.
The reason for the Grizzlies having such an advantage, while the Spurs were actually having the slightly better game offensively, was because I charted 17 more shots for the Grizzlies.  The 'real' box score had 15 more shots for the Grizzlies.  It's not often that the team which shoots 15 fewer shots wins the game.  However, that (obviously) did not happen.  The 'real' score for the game was an OT victory for the Spurs 104-93.

Unless I looked at the box scores incorrectly, I think the Grizzlies outrebounded and had fewer turnovers than the Spurs in EVERY SINGLE GAME.  (except for game 3 in which the Spurs outrebounded the Griz by 2, although the Griz still grabbed 6 more offensive rebounds)
I would guess that this has happened before in a playoff series.. But, wow.  It takes a much, much higher FG% on your side to beat an opponent that is constantly outrebounding and committing fewer turnovers than you are.

Heat vs Pacers Game 6
Bosh does a good job of hustling.
Cole is owning Hibbert by shooting open jumpers.
How many missed Pacer dunks have there been?
How fast is Lebron?  Wow.
Tagline from the NBA was, "Win or go Home." Imho, that is completely inaccurate, the Pacers are obviously already @home so the tagline should be, "Win or Stay Home."
Hibbert has mostly just had a few tip-ins.  Only a few hook shots.
I despise Lebron iso jumpers (And that is on repeat in the Finals)
Lebron passes are so crisp.
I certainly don't get into the "NBA CONSPIRACY" stuff, but seriously, the Pacers have gotten not only every 50-50 call, but every 60-40 call as well.  Odd.  (And that basically happened all series.)  I certainly don't think it's a conspiracy or anything like that, but I do think it could have been some sort of bias against the Heat, since the Heat aren't exactly a well-liked team.
Wade is on George.. (And it worked out soo well..)

According to the numbers here, the Pacers had the slightly better defense and the slightly worse offense (sorry about the typo), while the Heat took 3 more shots than the Pacers (that I charted).

I forgot to mention above that these series expected points (and really all the data) are very slightly off, because I updated my main data sets after I had already finished these three games.

Oddly, according to the expected points numbers, the Heat were supposed to win 86.4 to 86.3.

The actual score was in favor of the Pacers 91-77.

Heat vs Pacers Game 7

I had a lack of notes for G7 for some reason.

Lebron was missing his shots long (Maybe..  This note was hard to understand.)

Lebron's 30 pts have been fairly quiet.  (It's interesting how often he does this.  You are just casually, or even intently, watching a game and suddenly the announcer says "Lebron has 20", and you do a double take.  Lebron's points generally look somewhat effortless.  Although that hasn't yet been the case in the Finals)

The Heat have won 48 of their last 53 games, wow.

Main points - The Heat had a somewhat significant advantage on offense, while the Pacers had a somewhat significant advantage on defense.  And (somehow) I again charted more Heat shots.
Expected points Heat 99.8 Pacers 82.3.
Actual result Heat 99 Pacers 76 (Typo: The 78 should have been 76).
Finally the 'right' team won.  And finally my final expected points numbers were fairly accurate..  Or you could turn that around and say that finally the 'real score' almost matched what it should have matched.

I suppose I'll go ahead and break this into two parts.  The next blog post should be somewhat similar to this, and will deal with the NBA Finals.