AFC Preview for 2013

       I am only listing the main transactions for a given team in their FA acquisitions, personnel decisions, and rookie additions and subtractions.  There were certainly many additional personnel moves.  Since I already listed most of the interesting draft choices in a separate post, I will not list quite as many draft choices in the additions.  I originally made my predictions for the NFL about a month ago, so I obviously did not get to account at the time for some of the injuries which have occurred to players such as Dustin Keller, Jeremy Maclin, etc. Overall, I don't think the various injuries have made a large enough of a difference for me to go through the season again.  Though I would still technically like to go through the season once again just to see if my projected records would be similar a second time through, however I don't have the time to do that, so that won't be happening.  The NFC preview is also finished, I'll go ahead and post that next week.

AFC (2)

AFC East (8)

New England Patriots

Additions of Leon Washington, Danny Amendola, and Tim Tebow.

Subtractions of Danny Woodhead, Brandon Lloyd, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Patrick Chung.

       Admittedly I'm biased in this opinion, but as I see it anyways, the Patriots now have the three best QB's in the division, Brady, Tebow, and Mallet.. Seriously, who is supposed to come fourth?  Tannehill?  Whatever happened to the people who said Tebow would be out of the league after three years?  Because all I'm hearing from their positions sounds a lot like crickets..  

       My original hope for Tebow being in Foxboro is that the Patriots would be able to trade him in the preseason to the Jags (Or Browns, etc) for a 4th rounder, so that all concerned parties would be happy.  However, Tebow has played very poorly in the preseason, until the 4th preseason game anyways.. or so I assume, and I'm going to guess that the Jaguars still don't really have the intelligence or guts to trade for Tebow.  And the reason for Tebow struggling in the preseason?  It's because it's the preseason, Tebow has had to learn a new playbook (something which he does have some struggles with), the formations and playcalling havn't been great, and yet again Tebow's throwing motion is being tweaked with..  
       So, unless Brady goes down with an injury and Mallet struggles in relief, then the playing opportunities will be extremely limited for Tebow this year.  The Patriots and Coach Belichick will likely use him in much smarter  positions than the Jets used him, however barring some new clever offensive scheme, then the main playing time I can see for Tebow is against the Jets..  Where, I'm going to randomly guess, the Patriots won't mind rubbing it into the Jet's players that they have the far superior team.

       The clamoring amongst the media and fans that the Patriots have a  'lack of weapons' is basically just a smoke screen, in my opinion, because I think that Brady, Belichick, and most of the Patriots will be in screwdriver mode this season, and will be able to manufacture weapons from unknown players.  Also, Amendola should be able to replace Welker somewhat seamlessly..  The main problem for the Patriots is that there is no Hernandez presence to intimidate opposing defenses, hence not quite as much space for the WR's..  But, all in all, the Patriots should still have a top 7 offense.  7-2, 5-2, 12-4.

New York Jets

Additions of Mike Goodsen, Kellen Winslow, Geno Smith, and Chris Ivory.

Subtractions of Shonn Greene, Tim TEBOW (Sorry, I'm not sure why the caps lock slipped on there..), Dustin Keller, Jason Smith, Bart Scott, and Laron Landry.

       While I probably wouldn't have the time to watch the Jet's games this season anyways, I'm glad that this year I will no longer have to suffer through watching the Jet's offensive blandness and incompetence. Sanchez should be a bit better this year since the expectations for him and the team are so low, and also because of (and this is a major boost for Sanchez) there being much less of a circus with Tebow's shadow no longer present. (And I say 'shadow', because it's not like the Jets ever actually legitimately let Tebow play quarterback.) The Jest management (Yes, that was intentional.), did a good job in the off-season of picking up some offensive weapons for Sanchez like, Chris Ivory... No offense to Mr. Ivory, and actually I do think more highly of him then most do, but he is not really a true #1, 25 carries per game, running back, much less a game-changer.

       The Ewing Theory was semi-relevant to the Jet's defense last year since they lost Revis.  And the defense improved a fair margin largely because of Tebow..  But, the theory will not be in effect this year, because Tebow is no longer there. As such the defense should be worse this year.  One caveat to that is that Coach Ryan is actually calling the defense this year, which should improve them a little..  Just not to the point of them being better than last season, and certainly not to the point of them being a top 5 defense, as Coach Ryan is predicting.  2-7, 3-4, 5-11.

Miami Dolphins

Additions of Brandon Gibson, Mike Wallace, and Dustin Keller.

Subtractions of Reggie Bush, Anthony Fasano, Jake Long, and Karlos Dansby.

       I don't really think that any team can challenge NE for the division, but the closest team will possibly be the Dolphins. I fail to see why this team is viewed by many as a potential wild card contender, I agree that their defense is probably top 10 level, but I do not see from whom the Dolphin's offense can generate points. Wallace is decent, but he certainly does not transcend the WR position, and other weapons on the offensive side of the ball are very lacking. Admittedly I think I rate the Dolphins a little low, but that will still likely be more accurate than having them in the playoffs.  I think Tannehill was bad last year and that his poor play will largely continue this season.  2-6, 2-6, 4-12.

Buffalo Bills

Additions of Kevin Kolb, E.J. Manuel, and Robert Woods.

Subtractions -- Ryan Fitzpatrick and Shawne Merriman.

       .500 is probably the best case scenario. It will be interesting to see if E.J. Manuel will be a decent quarterback. I think he is too much of a gunslinger. I liked the Bill's old head coach, and I like their new HC. Buffalo is a member of the very few, select teams in the NFL that should actually run the ball as often or more often than they pass the ball.  I think the Bills are a bit of an unknown entity before the season begins, but I don't think they will be very good.  Unlike last season, I do not really see there being any breakout rookie QB's. (Matt Barkley is the best fit for this, but unless Vick gets injured,.. Which could happen..  He's probably not going to see the field.)   Even with the great running game from Spiller, I don't see Manuel being a consistent passer, and hence the Bills are likely going to struggle.  2-7, 2-5, 4-12.

Just to keep things flowing, I didn't always bother to try to have as many correct commas as I technically should have.  Also, sometimes I ignored article adj. and the like to keep things going.

AFC	Wins	Losses	Quick summary (Often with alliteration attempted.. With varying results.)
Patriots	12	4	Patriots push past pushovers in the AFC East, #1 seed.
Jets	5	11	No circus in town, but the Jets are still not competitive.
Bills	4	12	No reliable quarterback spells doom for the beleaguered Bills.
Dolphins	4	12	Dolphins dive deep, but don't decelerate in time.

AFC North (6)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Additions of William Gay, a healthy Troy Polamalu, Jarvis Jones, Le'Veon Bell, and even more good draft choices.

Subtractions of Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Wallace, and James Harrison.

       Polamalu is a game-changer and I expect him to be out for less than 2 games this season. Over the last two seasons I have continually been a bit high on the Steelers. And apparently I have still not learned from my mistakes, because I am continuing the trend this season as well. While the Steelers lost a couple of offensive playmakers, they had a really decent draft to  help compensate for the losses.  7-1, 4-4, 11-5.

Baltimore Ravens

Additions to the Ravens of Elvis Dumervil and a healthy Terell Suggs

Subtractions of Ray Lewis, Anquan Boldin, Ed Reed, and Bernard Pollard.

       Nice timing by Flacco to get a shiny new contract.. Hope the Ravens have fun with that shiny contract anchor, when his play is not actually even close to a top 5 QB and the Ravens don't have any really decent WR's. The Ravens management largely made correct decisions on the defensive end of the ball, losing a number of old, but good ball-players. This will likely result in some short term, 1-2 year, defensive hiccups, but should prove to be the right route in the long run. However, on the offensive side of the ball, the Ravens simply let Boldin leave and did not pick up a replacement.. Now, sure, it would have been expensive to keep Boldin, but having a QB whom you think is top 5 is effectively of no real help for a team when he has no one to throw the ball to..  4-4, 4-4, 8-8.

Cincinnati Bengals

Additions of James Harrison, and Josh Johnson.

Subtraction -- Nate Clements.

       I like Andy Dalton, but I just don't know if he can carry the Bengals very far this season. I expect some regression for the Bengals basically across the board. Their defense is fairly nasty, but I don't expect any 'next step' for Cincy this season.  2-5, 4-5, 6-10.

Cleveland Browns

Additions of Paul Kruger, Davone Bess, and Norv Turner as OC.

Subtractions of Mohamed Massaquoi and Joshua Cribbs.

       The Browns showed last year that their defense is extremely decent.. However, to whom can the Browns offense turn to who will actually be able to produce points?  Where are the weapons? I am somewhat uncertain as to what should be done with the Browns, some signs point to them improving, but then I look at their offense again and I can't really see any major improvements from last season.  3-2, 2-9, 5-11.

Steelers	11	5	Steelers show that, when healthy, the Steel Curtain can still stop most, 4th seed.
Ravens	8	8	Ravens radically give Flacco a ridiculous contract, restricted, the Ravens recoil.
Bengals	6	10	Boring Bengals bitterly fall to buff opponents.
Browns	5	11	The Browns show a lot of competitiveness once again, but can't break through.

AFC SOUTH (7)

Houston Texans

Additions of Ed Reed, Shane Lechlerm.

Subtractions -- Kevin Walter, Justin Forsett.

       Having a healthy Brian Cushing alongside J.J. Watt is a very intimidating duo for Houston to have.  The offense and defense should both be in, or at least very near the top 10.  No need to over-think things in the AFC South, considering how weak of a division it is.  8-2, 3-2, 11-5.

Indianapolis Colts

Additions of Matt Hasselbeck, Darius Heyward-Bey.

Subtractions Donnie Avery, Austin Collie, Dwight Freeney.

       I have found it somewhat humorous, and kind of disturbing/disappointing, at the number of people who think that the Colts can actually repeat as a playoff team and even challenge the Texans for the division.  While I (and others) could be mistaken, I fail to see where the Colts can actually snag the required number of victories.  
       Something that I said in last year's preview which I forgot to mention in my review for 2012, was that I predicted that Andrew Luck would throw for 4,000 yards, 26 TD's, and 14 interceptions, and I thought that Luck can win some toss-up games. Luck threw for 4374 yards and 23 touchdowns to 18 ints, so my numbers were slightly optimistic, but still actually surprisingly accurate.  Luck and the Colts went 9-1 in toss up games, so a bit of an undersell on his game-winning mentality, but also, it's very unrealistic for that trend to continue.
       What the Colts did last year was partially through smoke and mirrors.  Their point differential pegged them at about 7-9, which (oddly enough..) is actually the record I predicted they would have (And the funny thing about my prediction is that my prediction said the number of wins the Colts would finish with was actually quite a few games higher than most people predicted the Colts would finish with.), but instead the Colts actual record was 11-5.  I've been over this before, but Luck has to deal with many more intricacies within the offense, as opposed to the somewhat bland offenses ran by Wilson, Tannehill, and RG3.  I see a bit of a sophomore slump for Luck coming, and once again will peg the Colts at 7 wins.  2-7, 5-2, 7-9.

Tennessee Titans

Additions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shonn Greene, Jackie Battle, Benard Pollard.

Subtractions -- Matt Hasselbeck (sounds familiar..), Jared Cook, Jordan Babineaux.

       Jake Locker should improve once again, but the quarterback position is not the main problem for the Titans, the main problems can be found at basically any other position on the defensive side of the ball. Some things point to the Titans turning around a little bit this season, but I just don't really see it happening.  2-6, 3-5, 5-11.

Jacksonville Jaguars 

Additions of Luke Joeckel, Denard Robinson, and Mohamed Massaquoi.

Subtractions of Dawan Landry and Laurent Robinson.

       So Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert are Jacksonville's QB's instead of Tim Tebow.. Does this even need to be addressed again?  Probably not.. But seriously, other than the LA angle, this still makes absolutely no sense..  I like Coach Bradley, and Gabbert should improve again this year, but the Jaguars will still compete for the draft lottery crown.  1-9, 2-4, 3-13.

Texans	11	5	Terrific Texans torpedo tired division opponents, #3 seed.
Titans	5	11	Titans can't tighten ship, and get trampled.
Colts	7	9	Cerebral Luck can't quite come through for the Colts.
Jaguars	3	13	Jealous Jaguars act as juniors in the division.

AFC West  (1)

Denver Broncos

Additions of Wes Welker and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Subtractions of Willis McGahee (underrated player), Brandon Stokley, Elvis Dumervil and Tracy Porter.

       The talk of the Broncos having a top 3 WR group is somewhat laughable..  Welker is extremely consistent, DT has some boom or bust qualities, and Decker is fairly reliable. And while all three of those comments were meant to be compliments.. Those certainly were not exactly glowing reviews, other than for Welker anyways. Since 2007, Welker has caught the most passes in the NFL every odd year.. I don't think that will be occurring this year.  I'll say 99 receptions, 5 TD's, and 1060 yards for Welker this year, which for an average receiver would be close to stellar, but for Welker that would be his worst year since '06 and '10. Brady made Welker a better WR much more than Welker made Brady a good QB. 
       Losing Von Miller to a suspension technically isn't a gigantic loss for the Broncos in the grand scheme of things, but it still forces a bit of a delayed progression to everything. Last year I was quite possibly in the minority in thinking that Manning would be (other than a lack of arm strength for long bombs) entirely fine, and he certainly was fine. This season, I'll again take the contrarian view.  Possibly it is the Tebow thing still clouding my thought process for the Broncos ever so slightly, but for some reason I kind of think that Manning will either suffer an injury this year, or have a semi-major step back from his typical MVP level numbers. So overall I think there is more of a bust potential this year for the Broncos.  5-4, 6-1, 11-5.

San Diego Chargers

Additions of Danny Woodhead, Manti Te'o, Dwight Freeney.  Quite a list for the main coaching staff, HC Mike McCoy, OC Ken Whisenhunt, (why he's only an OC, I have no idea..  Paging all NFL teams that are intelligent.) and John Pagano.

Subtractions of Takeo Spikes, Quentin Jammer, and Shaun Phillips.

       The bad O-line should be a bit better this season. With so much transition amongst the coaching staff, technically the Chargers should be even worse than last season, however I'm willing to overlook this a bit, considering how decent those new coaches are. For some reason Rivers has had major struggles in the passing game the last two seasons, and while certainly part of this can be duly blamed on the offensive line, and the lack of WR weapons, a fair portion of the blame for his poor play should fall  squarely on his shoulders.  I was probably a bit too optimistic with the Chargers, but I expect some improvement from them, especially since Coach Norv $.$. Turner is no longer there.  7-3, 3-3, 10-6.

Oakland Raiders

Matt Flynn and the Raiders make the playoffs?
That would be an extremely surprising
 outcome to most football analysts.

Additions -- Josh Cribbs, Tyler Wilson, Tracy Porter, Charles Woodson, Matt Flynn.

Subtractions of Carson Palmer, Mike Goodson, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Richard Seymour Brandon Myers, Rolando McClain, and Michael Huff.

       While I certainly haven't liked all of GM Reggie McKenzie moves.. And some of his lack of moves.. Such as not picking up Tim Tebow.. /cough But, minor issues aside, I've liked the job GM McKenzie has done.  The Raiders have needed to be blown up for a couple of years, and he's going ahead down that path and doing it.  He has been willing to do things like not keep Carson Palmer, even though he was effectively a sunk cost player.  (Aka Mark Sanchez....) 

       I am in a somewhat odd position this season, in that I will be semi-rooting for the Raiders and the Patriots..  Two teams that have been amongst my least favorite teams for a decent portion of my life.
       If you take out two games, then the Raiders never allowed an opponent to score LESS than 20 points last season. If somehow the Raiders do actually end up being a decent team AND the AFC wildcard 2 spot ends up being soft, then this prediction could rank vaguely close up there to my Tebow and Broncos 2011 prediction. However, lightning rarely strikes the same place twice, and the Raiders defense is very putrid and would have to improve drastically to even be on the same stratosphere as Denver's 2011 defense.  (Also, I just found out that Jared Veldheer, a fairly decent and very important OT for the Raiders, suffered an injury.. Which means that the sieve of an offensive line will be even worse than expected..  So I hope Flynn likes rolling out to the right a lot.)

       There were a lot of nasty subtractions for the Raiders over the off-season, however, I think they were largely negated by one 'little' signing..  That of Matt Flynn.  I expect some good things from the Raiders this year. The Raiders are largely thought of as a laughingstock of a team and a team that will be battling with the Jaguars for the 'honor' of drafting #1 in next year's draft. However, I am not one of those people. The Raiders happen to be my largest breakout team for this season. I'm not exactly all that confident in it, because, well, they're the Raiders.. But still, in the limited time that I have seen him play (and the limited time that he has played) I have liked what Matt Flynn has done.

1.  That's nice and all, but Oakland is not Green Bay. 2. Oakland's defense considers it a good outing when they only give up a field goal, 3. while Oakland's O-Line is porous, 4. and their best WR is who...? Josh Cribbs? 5.  And as for Matt Flynn? Are you serious? Matt who? 6.  He's barely played, and plus he has no arm-strength.

All are legitimate points. 1.  Unlike GB, Oakland does have a bit of a losing culture which can be hard to shake in only one season, but I think it can be done.

2.  I would say that what is said is a bit harsh to Oakland's defense.. But, honestly it's not really all that harsh. What I'm banking on for an improvement from the Raider's defense is partially based on them having so many one year contract players on the roster. And while there is a bit of a folk-lore fallacy to players performing really well in contract years, there is still a tiny nugget of truth to it.

3.  I don't have a ton to combat the argument for the O-line. Flynn should help since he's an intelligent QB, but I'm not certain what else can be done for their O-line. (other than replacing it, anyways.)

4. Again my defense for the Raiders is a bit lacking here, I think that Darren McFadden could have a bit of a breakout season this year, and that the receiving corps won't do too poorly.

5.  How much has experience helped Blaine Gabbert? Chad Henne? Mark Sanchez? Yeah, that's what I thought.. Experience doesn't always vastly help a QB actually play better in any given game. Flynn should be fine. The point about limited playing time is granted, but that's part of what makes this such a 'crazy' proposition for the Raiders to actually be a decent team this season. 

6.  Certain football cliches (and a bunch of other cliches) can become very tiring at times.. So maybe (or basically, definitely in this case..) Tebow is viewed as a fairly inaccurate QB who can't throw practially any accurate passes. So maybe Matt Flynn isn't viewed as a QB who can make all the throws across the field, and make all the deep completions.. So what?  While, I do not disagree that stats and the way that a QB looks in their throwing motion should be ignored (far from it), at the end of the day (for the QB position) it should mostly just be about, 'Just win baby.' (Odd. It appears that I've been a bit brainwashed by Raider Nation if I'm already quoting the late Al Davis.) Tebow and Flynn may not have all the 'parts' that a typical elite pro QB has, but that really shouldn't matter if they win. And oddly, I think that, while they may not always look like typical 'elite' quarterbacks, by in large, Tebow and Flynn do just that: win.  5-5, 4-2, 9-7.

Kansas City Chiefs

Additions of Donnie Avery, Anthony Fasano, Alex Smith, Dunta Robinson (Massively underrated signing), and HC Andy Reid.

Subtractions of Matt Cassel, Peyton Hillis, Steve Breaston, Glenn Dorsey and Javier Arenas.

       I have come around a bit on Smith and now believe that not only can he be a game manager, but that he can sometimes win games.  The offense last season for the Chiefs was, umm, pathetic.. And that's a vast understatement.  I expect extreme improvement for the offense due to competency from Smith, mostly anyways, and then especially improvement because of HC Andy Reid.  Andy Reid is not a poor coach, and he's not a semi-decent coach, he is a great coach.  There is a reason why he lasted as long in Philly, a place that is rather contemptuous to its football team, as he did, it's because he's an extremely good coach. The pieces are, unlike last season..., finally there for the Chiefs and they should have the potential to be a competitive, .500 type, team this season, which would be a gigantic improvement from their completely dreadful point differential last season.

       Hmm, I just remembered that Romeo Crennel was the Chiefs HC last year..  Alex Smith provides competence to the QB position and Reid provides excellence to the coaching position.  5-3, 3-5, 8-8.

Broncos	11	5	Barefooted Broncos better brawny division, #2 seed.
Chargers	10	6	Chargers charge past challenging schedule to grab the 1st Wildcard.
Raiders	9	7	Resurgent Raiders radically run to the 2nd Wildcard.
Chiefs	8	8	Competency makes Chiefs content to be competitive.

I'm not certain if I should have spent so much time, at various points over the last two years, in writing different blog posts (including this post).  But overall, I have been somewhat pleased with my improvement as a writer over the last two years, and I would tend to say that blogging has helped my ability to write, at least to a certain limited extent.  While I'm not certain if it will help greatly in realityville, I do think that it has helped to assuage a portion of my writing difficulties.  As I mentioned near the top, I plan on posting the NFC preview sometime next week.  I will also likely have a quick post next week glancing at something like college football over/under.  After these next two blog posts are posted, unless at some point I go through a piece or two in my drafts to post (And I will also probably do a post before the NBA season starts), I'm not certain if I will really have much time to write and publish blog posts for awhile, but at some point I will return to posting at least occasionally.  And of course, per the usual, thanks for reading.