Various NFL Preseason Notes 2013

There were enough various notes about the AFC and NFC that I figured I might as well create a separate post for them.

Fading and breakout teams with a minimum of 3 projected wins or losses more than the previous season.

Fading Dolphins, Bengals, Colts, Redskins, Chicago, Minnesota. 6 total.

Breakout Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego. Detroit, Eagles, Saints, Buccaneers. 8 total (And the Rams were only a loss instead of a tie away from joining.)

I would say that the main team with a chance to go worst to first is probably the Philadelphia Eagles.

This is the first season that I've actually come around on the 9er's... So I suppose that could mean Kaepernick suffers a torn ACL injury or something and the 49er's finish 8-8.

Other than the Raider's drastic change, if I could just do some very slight reworking in the AFC East and the NFC West, then these picks actually look somewhat similar to last season's picks.. Which seems a bit odd.

I like the overall variation of my picks from last season and from typical picks from 'experts' for this season. But, at the same time, I highly, highly doubt that there are very many people who have the same combination of teams that I have making the playoffs in the Cowboys, Eagles, Buccaneers, Chargers, and Raiders.

AFC Elite and Surprises

I think that the AFC is fairly set in stone in terms of who the elite teams are. (And in my post on variance it kind of showed that, based on last year, the teams in the AFC had over a half game greater variation from .500 as opposed to the NFC.) In the AFC, imho, the Patriots, Broncos, and Texans are all relative locks to win their divisions or at the very least be within a game of winning their respective divisions. The AFC North is a bit of a 2 team toss-up with the Bengals thrown in as a theoretical wildcard to the scenario.

The list of teams which I would be surprised to make the playoffs in the AFC are as follows, Browns, Dolphins, Jets, and Bills.

NFC Elite and Surprises

I would say the Packers are the only relative division title winner lock in the NFC. The NFC East is most likely a complete free for all. The NFC South is a three way race with a possible wildcard in the Panthers. And the NFC West is a semi-legit 3 way race.  The list of teams which would be surprise playoff teams in the NFC is a shorter list only containing the Vikings and Cardinals.

So in essence, once you take away the locks, (and I'll include the 49er's in the locks, though they are a little iffy) there are 5 teams which are effectively already in the playoffs even before the season begins, and 6 teams which are effectively already out of the playoffs. Meaning that there would be a total of 21 teams battling for the remaining 7 playoff spots. But, then there usually is a team or two each season that somehow makes a leap from terrible to playoff contender, so possibly one of the 6 non-playoff teams will in fact still have a decent chance at making the playoffs.

Two more AFC notes. For some reason the Texans are almost a completely overlooked team right now. I don't quite understand why this is, especially considering they are all but assured to win their division. 

And then also, I forgot to mention this for the Raider's preview, but I don't even think the Raiders are even trying to win this year. The Raider's management goal is probably to win in the area of 5 wins and get a high draft choice. Also, I glanced through their roster again, and it's a shocker I know, but it's fairly bad, so Matt Flynn will really need to be something like the second coming of Tim Tebow or someone like that for the Raiders to have even a decent chance at being competitive.

More Random Notes

It has been ten years since Lovie Smith wasn't the coach of the Bears. The Patriots are having to replace their top 5 players who caught passes last season..  Both of those things are kind of hard to overcome.

Even most Raiders fans think that the Raiders will be horrible this year.  Flynn appears to be in a toss-up competition right now with Pryor, so Flynn may not even begin the season at QB..  If the Raiders do end up going with Pryor, then I would say that would be a slight downgrade, but I won't bother changing any predictions.

How can the Seahawks possibly finish with 6 losses?

Tebow is down to 236 lbs.  While Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are listed at 225.  Yeah, Tebow really is a 'big' QB as compared to the average QB.. It's too bad that Tebow has been released, sort of anyways.., but I expect and hope that he will be back fairly soon.

Via my predictions, heading into week 16 there were only 8 teams that were still fairly legitimately alive for the playoffs in the AFC: the 6 that made the playoffs, and also the Ravens and Chiefs. However, in the NFC, not only were there the 6 that made the playoffs obviously alive, but there were also 6 other teams with a semi decent chance at making the playoffs.  They were the Saints, Seahawks, Cowboys, Lions, Bears, and Giants.

Alex Smith was a very poor QB before he got great coaching and a consistency in his offense.  Some quarterbacks like Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, etc., kind of fit that mold.