Comparison to the rest of the NBA
The lines are done as if I am the home team in regards to +/-, but really the game line is set based on playing the game on a neutral court. And the lines are done as if the Hornets were facing the various teams in the 2012-13 season. I didn't go into these with as much effort as the Bobcat simulation, (though I still looked at each individual lineup and typical numbers as compared to my lineup) so these are a little bit more vague projections.
(This is just done by division order.)
Eastern Conference
Boston +1 Garnett is the difference. (also this sim was without Rondo, with Rondo it's more like +6 or +7)
Brooklyn +1 Would probably be a very even game.
New York -2 The Knicks bench would get destroyed by the Hornet's bench.
Philadelphia -4 Could have gone higher on this one.
Toronto +3 I think the Raptors matchup fairly well.
Chicago +3 Fairly poor matchups for the Hornets.
Cleveland -3 The bench players for each squad were the deciding factors in this game.
Detroit -6 If not for Drummond and Monroe, this line would have been huge.
Indiana +6 Not a horrible line against the first high quality team.
Milwaukee -4 Really good matchups for the Hornets.
Atlanta -1 The matchups even claim the number should be higher, but, at the same time, I don't see why the Hornets are even favored.
Bobcats -7 I fail to see how the Bobcats could win even 3 games out of ten against this Hornets team.
Heat +8 Could be worse, depends on how engaged the Heat are.
Magic -8 Domination across the board, except for Zeller on Vucevic.
Wizards -4 Matchups favor the Hornets, could have gone higher.
Pretending that the Hornets only played one game against each team, and that the games went exactly as the line said they should go, then this was the Hornet's record in the EC: 9-6, but with an overall scoring margin of -17.
Western Conference
Mavericks -1 I would say pick-em, but since that isn't an option I'll take the Hornets.
Rockets +7 Tempted to go higher with this number.
Grizzlies +6 Faster pace, and this number would be a lot worse. Very poor matchups.
Hornets -6 Based on playing a Hornets team with an unhealthy Eric Gordon. (Which is kind of the norm..)
Spurs +9 The Spurs would likely shred the Hornets with their excellent passing.
Warriors +2 Curry is certainly the difference in this game.
Clippers +10 The lineups kind of screamed domination for the Clippers. Biggest underdog line.
Lakers +4 Zeller could be an alright post defender, but I'm guessing playing D-Howard will take a little while to get used to.
Suns -11 Could have gone higher, but it was already kind of high and lines tend to curve towards the middle anyways.
Kings -4 A little closer than expected.
Nuggets +8 The benches are fairly even, otherwise it definitely favors the Nuggets.
Timberwolves -2 (No Love, semi-obviously.) Starters are fairly even, bench is the difference.
Thunder +9 Likely not the closest game of all time..
Trail Blazers -1 Coin toss game, wasn't really convinced either way.
Jazz -4 This would be an interesting matchup.
Mavericks -1 I would say pick-em, but since that isn't an option I'll take the Hornets.
Rockets +7 Tempted to go higher with this number.
Grizzlies +6 Faster pace, and this number would be a lot worse. Very poor matchups.
Hornets -6 Based on playing a Hornets team with an unhealthy Eric Gordon. (Which is kind of the norm..)
Spurs +9 The Spurs would likely shred the Hornets with their excellent passing.
Warriors +2 Curry is certainly the difference in this game.
Clippers +10 The lineups kind of screamed domination for the Clippers. Biggest underdog line.
Lakers +4 Zeller could be an alright post defender, but I'm guessing playing D-Howard will take a little while to get used to.
Suns -11 Could have gone higher, but it was already kind of high and lines tend to curve towards the middle anyways.
Kings -4 A little closer than expected.
Nuggets +8 The benches are fairly even, otherwise it definitely favors the Nuggets.
Timberwolves -2 (No Love, semi-obviously.) Starters are fairly even, bench is the difference.
Thunder +9 Likely not the closest game of all time..
Trail Blazers -1 Coin toss game, wasn't really convinced either way.
Jazz -4 This would be an interesting matchup.
Based on the lines and playing each team once, the Hornets would have 7 wins and 8 losses in the WC, with an overall point spread of -26.
I'm a little bit tempted to go through all of 2012 and/or 2013 and W/L it, but that seems a bit time consuming, so I'll pass on that. Instead, I'll simply just pretend that the Hornets would play each team in their conference four times, (Then push that down to the proper amount of games for the Eastern Conference, 52), and teams from the WC twice. Based on the lines, the Hornets would go 14-16 in the WC, and 31-21 in the EC, for an overall record of 45-37. Overall point differential would very likely be negative, however. [It was interesting to see how the real Bobcats team of 2013-14 was able to overachieve and capture the seventh seed in the East due to their 43-39 record. Al Jefferson had a much larger impact than I expected he would. Also the real Bobcats matched my fictional Hornet's team in having a slightly negative point differential.]
(I tried to be accurate, but there could possibly be a few errors in this.)
Projected Active Roster Salary for 2013-2014
$ 916,099 Adrien Expires in 2014 (the end of the season)
$ 3,049,920 Biyombo Team Option for 15
$13,200,000 Gordon (into Humphries) 14
$ 4,500,000 Mullens 16
$ 4,500,000 Henderson 15
$ 4,000,000 McRoberts 15
$ 4,809,840 Kidd-Gilchrist Team Option for 15 and 16
$ 5,000,000 Sessions 14
$ 2,462,400 Walker Team option for 15
$ 788,872 Taylor 15
$ 3,105,500 Zeller 17 estimated salary from Hoopsworld
$ 6,000,000 Korver Player option for 16
$ 3,500,000 Smith 17
$ 3,500,000 Webster Player option for 17
2013-14 Total salary (for active players)
$59,332,631
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| Here is the actual roster for the Bobcats for the beginning of the 2013-14 season. Courtesy of ESPN. |
Released players
$ 7,000,000 Thomas 2015. I do not know how all the details work, but I'm pretty sure that even if a team release's a player in the NBA, they still have to play the player effectively all the original contract salary, however, if another team picks up that player, then they have to pay a portion of that players salary too.. Or something like that. It may only apply if they are grabbed off waivers. (Or is that just for football.. Now I'm a little confused.)
$ 2,050,000 Haywood 15
2013-14 Complete Salary (with releases)
$68,382,631 but since Thomas is amnestied, the taxable salary is actually..
$61,382,631 which, while not amazing, is still vaguely decent, considering Gordon/Humphries is a 13 million dollar anchor just by itself. The Charlotte Bobcats had the 28th highest overall salary for players in 2012/13, which was only higher than Sacramento and Houston. 61 million would have only been one spot higher in 2012, at 27 instead of 28.
The expected salary cap for 2013-14 is 58.5 whilst 52.7 appears to be the minimum a team can play its players.. Tax level is possibly about 71 million.
I'll say the average salary in 2014 is 67.8. The only two Bobcats who had guaranteed contracts in 14-15.. Of course happen to be Thomas and Haywood.. Ouch. So theoretically, the Hornets would still have them as a salary hit until 15-16. (Depending on how amnestying players works..)
Three random notes
It's kind of crazy how low the salary cap was 20 years ago.
The Cavaliers and Jazz have the most flexibility, while the Nets appear to be all but locked in until at least 15/16, with a 70 million+ salary. Ouch.. I know Prokeroff has liked to spend money and all, but that seems a bit silly.
Somehow the Magic and 76er's each had 80 million plus salaries for 12/13 and the Magic are still locked into 75 million dollars of salary for 13/14.
Expected Salary and Roster for 2014-2015 Season
$ 916,099 Adrien Expires in 2014 (the end of the season)
$ 3,049,920 Biyombo Team Option for 15
$ 4,500,000 Mullens 16
$ 4,500,000 Henderson 15
$ 4,000,000 McRoberts 15
$ 4,809,840 Kidd-Gilchrist Team Option for 15 and 16
$ 2,462,400 Walker Team option for 15
$ 788,872 Taylor 15
$ 3,105,500 Zeller 17 (estimated salary from Hoopsworld)
$ 6,000,000 Korver Player option for 16
$ 3,500,000 Smith 17
$ 3,500,000 Webster Player option for 17
$ 3,500,000 Andrew Harrison Team Option for 17 (I'm just having a random guess that the Hornets will pick Harrison in the 2014 draft, I'm not necessarily saying he would be the right choice, [obviously] since I've never even seen him play. And quite possibly the Hornets wouldn't be able to pick him anyways, since they would not have a high enough draft pick.)
$44,632,631 total. Minimum of around 53 million..
It appears there will be less to do in terms of player acquisition and releases this year than in 2013/14. Most players are locked in until 15/16.
No pursuits
Humphries is an obvious no pursuit, so thankfully there are no 8 figure salaries for the Hornets this year.
Sessions was a little bit tempting and if he would be able to sign in the area of 4-5.5 million for 2 years, then I might attempt to sign another contract, but I'm not certain if that would be realistic, so I will simply not pursue signing him.
FA pursuits
I looked at Arnett Moultrie, Evan Turner, Trever Booker, Dontas Motiejunas and a handful of other players. But, Jeremy Evans, Kyle Lowry, and Patrick Beverley stood out.
I now realize that last season I should have traded for Jeremy Evans (And his ability to dunk has no connection to me wanting him to join the Hornets.) and Patrick Beverley.
For Evans, while I would like to acquire him now, I don't like one year rentals. However, I will go ahead and do it anyways, and say that after I acquire him, I get him to sign a contract extension (if that would even be possible) at 5.5 million for 3 years and 7 million 4th year Team Option.
More or less the same for Beverley, but willing to take a risk and pay up to 5 to 7 million per year for the first three years.
For Lowry, I decided that I would draft a PG in the draft and forgo pursuing him, since I think Walker can be a decent PG.
Trades
Acquiring Evans: I'm not positive what the Jazz would want for him, but I'll say it only takes a second round pick from 2015 and 2016.
To acquire Beverley: Again, I'm not certain as to what the Rockets would want for him, but I'll say two first rounders from 2015 and 2016, respectively.
I think that Evans has the potential to be a high level starter (with low minutes), or possibly an all-star type player. I kind of worry about his high tendency to foul, and his durability, but I'm willing to risk it. Watching him (Beverley) play and looking at his advanced stats I have been very impressed with Beverley.
Stats that I have charted for Evans and Beverley.
Relates to Shooting Defense Extra plays
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Based on my stats, Evans is decent, but the sample size isn't even a fifth of the way to being significant. But for Beverley the stats are somewhat significant and they claim that he is an elite player at all three of the phases of the game that I chart. And, as an added bonus, he rebounds at an extremely high rate for a point guard.
Projected rotation minutes for the Hornets in the 2014-15 Season
Starters
PG Beverley 30 mpg
SG Korver 26
SF Kidd-Gilchrist 27
PF Evans 18 (Going kind of small, so Smith might need to be here instead)
C Zeller 27
2nd wave
PG Walker/Harrison 25
SG Henderson 14
SF Webster 22
PF Smith 20
C Mullens 13
Players to get in for around ten minutes a game
SG Taylor 5
PF McRoberts 12
In this completely fictional scenario, in two years and likely with a lower salary, I think that I have improved a 20 win type team into a 40+ win team.
Considering that the NBA Regular Season starts tomorrow evening I do not think that I will be able to get my NBA predictions out before the season begins. I'm about 60% done with it now, and even if it will be slightly late I don't think that a couple days will really change the predictions very much. Thanks for reading.
In this completely fictional scenario, in two years and likely with a lower salary, I think that I have improved a 20 win type team into a 40+ win team.
Considering that the NBA Regular Season starts tomorrow evening I do not think that I will be able to get my NBA predictions out before the season begins. I'm about 60% done with it now, and even if it will be slightly late I don't think that a couple days will really change the predictions very much. Thanks for reading.
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