I kind of wanted to do some sort of mock draft of the NBA on where players should go and where they would go.. But, that would have been time consuming, so I didn't end up getting to it. Instead I decided that I would pretend to be the GM of the Charlotte 'Bobcats' and attempt to solve some of their problems, which will be in a different post. In this post I hope to at least glance at a few players in the draft and the trades which occurred around the draft and offer my limited knowledge on both of them.
Trades of note
New Orleans and Philadelphia
Noel for Holiday
Jrue Holiday's salary was set to skyrocket this year and will continue to be high for the next 4 years.. But still, I think the 76er's kind of got mugged. The Pelicans won this trade. Admittedly Noel could become a very good player, but still Holiday is a quantifiably good player, albeit with a vaguely high salary, while Noel is largely unknown.
T-Wolves and Jazz
Trey Burke for Muhammad and Dieng
I expect fairly good things from all 3 players.. But, Muhammad is kind of an unknown high-risk high-reward, while I expect Burke to become a very decent player. I'd say the Jazz barely won this trade.
Grizzlies and Nuggets
A second round pick and Darrell Arthur for KOSTA KOUFAS...
Not a good trade by the Nuggets.. In really any way, except that Arthur also plays decent defense. I'm fairly high on Koufas, I think that he should be getting high starting minutes on a playoff team.
Also, ESPN said the following.. "The Grizzlies, sources said, made the move to create playing time for young big man Ed Davis"
How does that even make sense? You are trading for a CENTER, not exactly a wing player.. Oh well. I know Centers and Power Forwards aren't entirely interchangeable, but still, they are by and large quite similar. So while Davis may indeed get a couple more minutes, it's still not really a major block of time that is created by the trade.
Player Notes
Don't have a lot of thoughts about the players. I didn't watch very much college basketball this year. So I mostly just know the big name players.
Otto Porter seems a bit undersized, I'm not certain if he will end up being a good pick for the Wizards
Trey Burke may be a bit undersized as well, but I expect good things from him.
Cody Zeller should be very decent.
I guess I'll go ahead and take a shot at ranking the top 10 players.. Or 14 as it ended up being.. (Basically based on the little I know of them, and how I think they will have performed in the NBA 3-5 years from now. So very limited selection, since I know virtually nothing about a fair number of the players, especially about players from other countries)
Top 14 choices
Cody Zeller
Trey Burke
Victor Oladipo
C.J. McCollum
Jeff Withey
Deshaun Thomas (The Spurs got a steal)
Anthony Bennett
Alex Len
Rudy Gobert
Shabazz Muhammad (possible bust as well)
Ryan Kelly
Gorgui-Dieng
Nerlens Noel (I expect him to be decent, but his attitude and the drama surrounding him worries me)
Mason Plumlee
I'm technically not including him, but I expect Nate Wolters to be at least a serviceable bench player. Also, Seth Curry should have a job 3 years from now. And Mike Muscala could also be decent.
Potential busts.
Otto Porter
Kentavious-Caldwell-Pope
Ben-McLemore (Impressive year in college, I would just feel a lot better if he was at least a Sophomore. A bit of a boom or bust pick. And considering Sacramento picked him.. Well... I'll let you decide.)
Tim Hardaway Junior
Sports and Issues
Friday, June 28, 2013
Friday, June 14, 2013
Heat vs Spurs Notes and Analysis for Games 1-4 of the NBA Finals 2013
Game 1 of the NBA Finals
Green was on Lebron for a good portion of the game.
Totally different Wade this game. (Finals Wade)
Lebron finally arrived with 9 minutes left (I think that's what the note meant)
3:30 Typical Parker UGH shot. (This shot kind of annoyed me more than his theoretical 'game winning' shot. {Even though the Spurs were still up 2 before the shot anyways)
Game 2
(More Anderson please)
(Take Wade out Plz)
Post Lebron..
Miller always takes it from that spot..
Ginobili can't dribble today..
Spurs lack of movement 8:30 2nd to end.
Lack of fouls once again
Iso Duncan is not working. (just sayin')
Well-called (referee) game again.
21-3? Whoa.
30-5, Wows.
Felt like Anderson (14 minutes) got more minutes than he actually did.
Chalmers with a noisy 19 points.
Lebron still passive, yet I like his shots.
Bill Simmons said that, "Duncan took good shots." WHAT?! In no way shape or form did that happen. Duncan had 6 quality shots in the game and 7 non-quality shots, while by comparison Bosh had 9 good shots and only 1 NQ shot. To say that Duncan took 'good' shots is a joke.
I kind of thought Lebron played poorly throughout, except for a very minute part of the game.
Why didn't some of this happen in the first game?
When the Heat lose game 1, they go ahead and sweep the remaining games. Spurs should be able to stop that trend, barely.
Fairly quick game.
Take the starters out, 6:00 left. (Taken out 1:10 later.)
Messy stats..
Finally turned the Spurs over this game.
Parker was guarded well in both games.
Wade wasn't in during the huge run, surprise..
Game 3
Wade is always getting the ball early on.
Lebron... Defense..? C'mon.
A man against boys.
Wade shooting pt blank shots.
Green is great at getting back for transition defense.
Low scoring game so far.
Anderson please? 5:40 3rd down 17
3:36 finally a better lineup.
Worst finals performance by LBJ? (Quite possibly)
Finally clicked 4th quarter begin. (I don't know what that note was supposed to mean..)
Neal's bad shots keep going down.
Demolition.
LBJ takes a small step forward.. WHY? He took the step forward from the 3 pt arch to shoot a long 2 jumper. (He missed it as well, but that's irrelevant.)
Not sure if you should bench starters or not... Hmm, Yes. 5:40
Blowout City.
3rd worst loss in Final's history. (Or from the Spurs point of view, 3rd biggest win in Finals history)
Most 3's in Final's history. Ouch.
Game 4
I had many more notes for this game.
No way the Heat lose this game.
Popovich just got out coached, wow. (Miller was inserted into the starting lineup for the Heat and Popovich responded with the fastest substitution in Finals history to get in NEAL.)
James is ON. (It took all of 3 possessions to see this. His energy on defense was back)
Parker is hurt..?
Another communication error for the Heat?
0 traps?
Heat need to trap.
6:40 Cole is finally in.
Joseph? (getting minutes instead of Parker, since he was hurt) Hmm.
Fast breaks early for the Heat, thank goodness.
James not giving up on plays. (something he has done a lot in the Finals, possibly because he is tired..?)
4:00
More free throws.
Much crisper Heat team today.
Game flow is favoring Heat.
2nd Quarter
Green's decline should begin now.. (He struggled a little, but he still kept hitting the triples)
About time Battier got minutes.
9:30, Wade on Parker please?
Royals with the win again. Hottest team in baseball for awhile now. (That didn't last for long though)
I saw Lebron coming, but Wade has really shown up about as well as Lebron has.
Wade had no non-quality attempts in the 1st quarter.
No Birdman yet.
3 minutes left.
Cole won the jump ball, game over..
Why don't the Heat complete their traps??
3rd Quarter
My main adjustment for the Heat, is that they need to do a lot more hard hedging and trapping.
(oddly enough, one of the first things out of the gate for the 2nd half) Finally a hard trap.
8:30 Looks like Parker is halfway limping now. Finally. (I was kind of wondering when that would happen.) Valiant effort by Parker so far.
Spoelstra is a really good coach. He should get more credit for the things he does. (Wade recieved his 4th foul here, I believe) Wade is being left in.
STAY ON GREEN. (I don't understand why on some occasions, [unless the players forget] the coaches don't just tell the player guarding Green to forget help and just focus on Green.)
67-63 Woah, horrible lineup for the Spurs right now, no Q player on besides Leonard. Heat should win this lineup battle somewhat easily.
And of course the Spurs one field goal by this lineup was by Leonard.. He got an old fashioned 3 point play. The Heat only 'won' the scoring battle though, 7-5. so yeah..
Refs slightly more lenient this game, though still not really an 'average' type of NBA game.
4:39 on I tried to pay attention to the hedges and a few traps performed by the Heat. (mostly just hedges)
Someone left Green, (to hedge kind of, which is good) but Chalmers recovered just in time to get to Green.
Love the post ups for Lebron.
Great hedge on Parker, but then 6 secs later Green is passed the ball with no one within 6 ft (at least).
Repeat of the SOG.
I'm fine getting beaten by Parker, but not by Green.
Other hedge later resulted in open 3 for Leonard, unrelated to the hedge, but he missed.
4th Quarter
Lebron time. Boo yah. 5 pt edge to begin the 4th.
Hedge "foul" on Ginobili.
Another good hedge.
Goodness.. Neal with another bad three that goes in.
Anderson in for Haslem please.. (Didn't happen, Anderson didn't get any playing time.)
Another great hedge.
Another hedge, partially indirect result was a jump ball.
Yeah.
Lebron with rest, boo-yah. (If only the Thunder had done likewise with KD.... Ugh... That still annoys me)
Ginobili with a 'what are you thinking' 3 pointer. (and like most of his shots this series it missed)
Never give Parker & Popovich the same look.
Wow. ABC is showing the block highlights, 7 total, I haven't been paying attention to that, but i would have thought it would be like 4 to 6 blocks.
Splitter's FT coach FTW. (I assume that person would be the Spur's main FT coach, so major props to him. Especially considering all the great FT performances by the Spurs this year.)
Trapping results in a TO and fast break opportunity. Wade dunks it. How odd that trapping can cause turnovers....
High scoring evenish game finally.
LBJ can come back in now..
Wade hitting a couple midrange jumpers finally.
Ginobili has been a bit of a liability this series.
Finally a Heat player is over 20 pts.
6:04 4th 11 pt spread. Lebron has been oddly (and understandably, since he's actually playing defense this game) tired this game.
6 steals for Wade.
Didn't hedge, resulted in a Q shot for Parker (which he missed)
Who is this Dwayne Wade?
Gj helping Parker up, Chalmers.
A trap resulted in Duncan throwing it away, wow..
I agree with Van Gundy, the Heat have given a lot more effort tonight.
Wade has been fairly consistent throughout this game, first time all series, except for parts of game 1.
Double digit victory.. I don't know about everyone else, but this was a huge surprise to me.. (that was sarcasm.. Jic you couldn't tell.)
In some ways I thought the referees were biased in favor for the Heat for certain calls, but then I looked at the box score after the game, and the Heat shot 14 fewer free throws. I think this has been a very decently called series.
Here are some notes I am just now writing that are based on interesting statistics of how the players performed in my stats.
Game 1
Heat Defense. Bosh, Allen, and especially Anderson were good defensively. James, Wade, and to a certain extent Haslem were all poor defenders.
Spurs Defense. Leonard had a decent game defensively. Green was very (which is odd for him) poor defensively. Splitter was decent, Parker was not taken enough on the offensive end.. Duncan was all over the place, in both good and bad ways.
Spurs Offensive Notes. Green and Leonard took a combined 14 threes, 12 of which were quality, Green was hitting his, Leonard was not. The only two black holes (in terms of NQ shots) for the Spurs were Duncan and Parker. (Per usual, basically.)
Heat Offensive Notes. The Heat took many Q3s (which is effectively the only kind of 3 they take.)
Spurs Defense. Parker was a major liability on defense. Green was flying around to a certain extent, but he wasn't always in the right place. Duncan was mostly positive this time.
Spurs Offensive Notes. Duncan and Parker were again the black holes of the offense. Green took 5 quality 3's, and hit each shot. Lack of free throws for both sides.
Heat Offensive Notes. Wade and Bosh were slight NQ offenders. Otherwise, fairly typical Heat amazingness.
Game 3
Heat Defense. Cole and Bosh were both decent defenders. Wade and James were extremely poor defenders.
Spurs Defense. Leonard was extremely good. Duncan was oddly quiet. Again the Heat did not attack Parker (or Neal) enough. Green was absolutely amazing this game. He was effectively, literally everywhere. I stat-ed him as defending 20 possessions, a very high number, especially for a guard, and not only did he just defend them, but he did an incredibly decent job at defending them.
Spurs Offensive Notes. Parker didn't take many shots this game, and Duncan finally had an efficient game. For some reason though, other Spurs players picked up some of the NQ slack by throwing up some NQ shots. Green continued his incredible shooting, while Neal somehow... managed to shoot (at least in my recorded shots) 6-10 from deep, despite only 4 of those being quality shots.
Heat Offensive Notes. Again James and Wade slight NQ offenders, everyone else was incredibly decent. (other than that they were out rebounded and stuff, it's a bit odd that the Heat lost this game so badly)
Game 4
Heat Defense. Miller had oddly poor defense this game. James (FINALLY!) played like an elite defender. Cole submitted another very good defensive effort. Battier (per usual, when he gets decent playing time) was a good defender. Wade was gambling all over the place, and as such, actually had no 'medium/average' defenses, but was instead towards the high or low quality end of the defensive spectrum.
Spurs Defense. Leonard (once again) was very good. Parker and Neal are still not being attacked enough. Ginobili was a very poor defender. Duncan had a lot of total defenses, but didn't perform very well. Green had as many defensive possessions charted as Chris Bosh! (they might share my record for most defenses in a game) And while Green obviously was not always perfect, he still did an incredibly decent job of defending the opposition.
Spurs Offensive Notes. Duncan with his second straight fairly efficient game. Once again, Neal hit a very high number of NQ 3's. Probably due to Miami's defense the Spurs took an oddly low amount of Q 3's this game, only 6 total shots.
Heat Offensive Notes. A pristine offensive performance by the Heat, except for Wade.. Wade had 8 NQ shots, which meant that he tied with Neal as shooting the most NQ shots. Wade and Lebron were effectively constantly attacking or pulling up for midrange jumpers this game, as such the Heat attempted a lower than usual number of threes.
Overarching notes.
The combined NQ shots of Parker, Neal, and Duncan are greater than all the combined NQ shots by the Heat.
Duncan has taken 17 NQ shots.. And hit a grand total of zero of them. Parker is slightly better, shooting 26 NQ shots and hitting 6 of them. Neal has taken a total of 23 NQ shots and he has hit 11 of them. (most of which were 3's)
Wade is the worst NQ offender on the other side, he has taken 17 and splashed 6 of them.
MVD
Green and Bosh/Anderson have been their team's Most Valuable Defenders through 4.
MVOP
I can't really split the tie on this one.. So it's a 3 way tie on Miami's side. Chalmers, Bosh, and Allen. (Somewhat honorable mention to LBJ and Anderson, who did not qualify due to lack of shot attempts)
Gary Neal.. Kidding, kidding. This side looks much uglier than the Heat side of the table. Another tie.. Green and Leonard. (Somewhat honorable mention to Diaw, but nowhere close to enough shot attempts to qualify)
MVP
Hopefully the remaining 2 or 3 games will provide some real difference between these three players. But, until then, I have a three-way tie between, Bosh, Allen, and Anderson.
(Honorable mention to Chalmers and not quite as honorable mention to James.)
On San Antonio's side it is certainly Danny Green for MVP.
One of the most interesting statistics to me is that the Heats' offense has been the main difference in the series thus far.
According to my statistics over this series the Heat should have outscored the Spurs 96.3 to 89.8.
All of this took a lot longer than I expected it to take [and I didn't get around to posting the individual team stats (which I will probably never bother posting then) ] so I won't go over this post with a fine-tooth comb looking for mistakes. Sorry if there are a lot of blunders. Thanks for reading, God bless.
Green was on Lebron for a good portion of the game.
Totally different Wade this game. (Finals Wade)
Lebron finally arrived with 9 minutes left (I think that's what the note meant)
3:30 Typical Parker UGH shot. (This shot kind of annoyed me more than his theoretical 'game winning' shot. {Even though the Spurs were still up 2 before the shot anyways)
Game 2
(More Anderson please)
(Take Wade out Plz)
Post Lebron..
Miller always takes it from that spot..
Ginobili can't dribble today..
Spurs lack of movement 8:30 2nd to end.
Lack of fouls once again
Iso Duncan is not working. (just sayin')
Well-called (referee) game again.
21-3? Whoa.
30-5, Wows.
Felt like Anderson (14 minutes) got more minutes than he actually did.
Chalmers with a noisy 19 points.
Lebron still passive, yet I like his shots.
Bill Simmons said that, "Duncan took good shots." WHAT?! In no way shape or form did that happen. Duncan had 6 quality shots in the game and 7 non-quality shots, while by comparison Bosh had 9 good shots and only 1 NQ shot. To say that Duncan took 'good' shots is a joke.
I kind of thought Lebron played poorly throughout, except for a very minute part of the game.
Why didn't some of this happen in the first game?
When the Heat lose game 1, they go ahead and sweep the remaining games. Spurs should be able to stop that trend, barely.
Fairly quick game.
Take the starters out, 6:00 left. (Taken out 1:10 later.)
Messy stats..
Finally turned the Spurs over this game.
Parker was guarded well in both games.
Wade wasn't in during the huge run, surprise..
Game 3
Wade is always getting the ball early on.
Lebron... Defense..? C'mon.
A man against boys.
Wade shooting pt blank shots.
Green is great at getting back for transition defense.
Low scoring game so far.
Anderson please? 5:40 3rd down 17
3:36 finally a better lineup.
Worst finals performance by LBJ? (Quite possibly)
Finally clicked 4th quarter begin. (I don't know what that note was supposed to mean..)
Neal's bad shots keep going down.
Demolition.
LBJ takes a small step forward.. WHY? He took the step forward from the 3 pt arch to shoot a long 2 jumper. (He missed it as well, but that's irrelevant.)
Not sure if you should bench starters or not... Hmm, Yes. 5:40
Blowout City.
3rd worst loss in Final's history. (Or from the Spurs point of view, 3rd biggest win in Finals history)
Most 3's in Final's history. Ouch.
Game 4
I had many more notes for this game.
No way the Heat lose this game.
Popovich just got out coached, wow. (Miller was inserted into the starting lineup for the Heat and Popovich responded with the fastest substitution in Finals history to get in NEAL.)
James is ON. (It took all of 3 possessions to see this. His energy on defense was back)
Parker is hurt..?
Another communication error for the Heat?
0 traps?
Heat need to trap.
6:40 Cole is finally in.
Joseph? (getting minutes instead of Parker, since he was hurt) Hmm.
Fast breaks early for the Heat, thank goodness.
James not giving up on plays. (something he has done a lot in the Finals, possibly because he is tired..?)
4:00
More free throws.
Much crisper Heat team today.
Game flow is favoring Heat.
2nd Quarter
Green's decline should begin now.. (He struggled a little, but he still kept hitting the triples)
About time Battier got minutes.
9:30, Wade on Parker please?
Royals with the win again. Hottest team in baseball for awhile now. (That didn't last for long though)
I saw Lebron coming, but Wade has really shown up about as well as Lebron has.
Wade had no non-quality attempts in the 1st quarter.
No Birdman yet.
3 minutes left.
Cole won the jump ball, game over..
Why don't the Heat complete their traps??
3rd Quarter
My main adjustment for the Heat, is that they need to do a lot more hard hedging and trapping.
(oddly enough, one of the first things out of the gate for the 2nd half) Finally a hard trap.
8:30 Looks like Parker is halfway limping now. Finally. (I was kind of wondering when that would happen.) Valiant effort by Parker so far.
Spoelstra is a really good coach. He should get more credit for the things he does. (Wade recieved his 4th foul here, I believe) Wade is being left in.
STAY ON GREEN. (I don't understand why on some occasions, [unless the players forget] the coaches don't just tell the player guarding Green to forget help and just focus on Green.)
67-63 Woah, horrible lineup for the Spurs right now, no Q player on besides Leonard. Heat should win this lineup battle somewhat easily.
And of course the Spurs one field goal by this lineup was by Leonard.. He got an old fashioned 3 point play. The Heat only 'won' the scoring battle though, 7-5. so yeah..
Refs slightly more lenient this game, though still not really an 'average' type of NBA game.
4:39 on I tried to pay attention to the hedges and a few traps performed by the Heat. (mostly just hedges)
Someone left Green, (to hedge kind of, which is good) but Chalmers recovered just in time to get to Green.
Love the post ups for Lebron.
Great hedge on Parker, but then 6 secs later Green is passed the ball with no one within 6 ft (at least).
Repeat of the SOG.
I'm fine getting beaten by Parker, but not by Green.
Other hedge later resulted in open 3 for Leonard, unrelated to the hedge, but he missed.
4th Quarter
Lebron time. Boo yah. 5 pt edge to begin the 4th.
Hedge "foul" on Ginobili.
Another good hedge.
Goodness.. Neal with another bad three that goes in.
Anderson in for Haslem please.. (Didn't happen, Anderson didn't get any playing time.)
Another great hedge.
Another hedge, partially indirect result was a jump ball.
Yeah.
Lebron with rest, boo-yah. (If only the Thunder had done likewise with KD.... Ugh... That still annoys me)
Ginobili with a 'what are you thinking' 3 pointer. (and like most of his shots this series it missed)
Never give Parker & Popovich the same look.
Wow. ABC is showing the block highlights, 7 total, I haven't been paying attention to that, but i would have thought it would be like 4 to 6 blocks.
Splitter's FT coach FTW. (I assume that person would be the Spur's main FT coach, so major props to him. Especially considering all the great FT performances by the Spurs this year.)
Trapping results in a TO and fast break opportunity. Wade dunks it. How odd that trapping can cause turnovers....
High scoring evenish game finally.
LBJ can come back in now..
Wade hitting a couple midrange jumpers finally.
Ginobili has been a bit of a liability this series.
Finally a Heat player is over 20 pts.
6:04 4th 11 pt spread. Lebron has been oddly (and understandably, since he's actually playing defense this game) tired this game.
6 steals for Wade.
Didn't hedge, resulted in a Q shot for Parker (which he missed)
Who is this Dwayne Wade?
Gj helping Parker up, Chalmers.
A trap resulted in Duncan throwing it away, wow..
I agree with Van Gundy, the Heat have given a lot more effort tonight.
Wade has been fairly consistent throughout this game, first time all series, except for parts of game 1.
Double digit victory.. I don't know about everyone else, but this was a huge surprise to me.. (that was sarcasm.. Jic you couldn't tell.)
In some ways I thought the referees were biased in favor for the Heat for certain calls, but then I looked at the box score after the game, and the Heat shot 14 fewer free throws. I think this has been a very decently called series.
Here are some notes I am just now writing that are based on interesting statistics of how the players performed in my stats.
Game 1
Heat Defense. Bosh, Allen, and especially Anderson were good defensively. James, Wade, and to a certain extent Haslem were all poor defenders.
Spurs Defense. Leonard had a decent game defensively. Green was very (which is odd for him) poor defensively. Splitter was decent, Parker was not taken enough on the offensive end.. Duncan was all over the place, in both good and bad ways.
Spurs Offensive Notes. Green and Leonard took a combined 14 threes, 12 of which were quality, Green was hitting his, Leonard was not. The only two black holes (in terms of NQ shots) for the Spurs were Duncan and Parker. (Per usual, basically.)
Heat Offensive Notes. The Heat took many Q3s (which is effectively the only kind of 3 they take.)
Extremely impressive shot selection throughout the table.
Game 2
Heat Defense. Lebron again playing as a below average defender. No horrible defenders this time. Again Anderson was effectively the best defender. Haslem with a bounce-back game. Miller was also very decent.Spurs Defense. Parker was a major liability on defense. Green was flying around to a certain extent, but he wasn't always in the right place. Duncan was mostly positive this time.
Spurs Offensive Notes. Duncan and Parker were again the black holes of the offense. Green took 5 quality 3's, and hit each shot. Lack of free throws for both sides.
Heat Offensive Notes. Wade and Bosh were slight NQ offenders. Otherwise, fairly typical Heat amazingness.
Game 3
Heat Defense. Cole and Bosh were both decent defenders. Wade and James were extremely poor defenders.
Spurs Defense. Leonard was extremely good. Duncan was oddly quiet. Again the Heat did not attack Parker (or Neal) enough. Green was absolutely amazing this game. He was effectively, literally everywhere. I stat-ed him as defending 20 possessions, a very high number, especially for a guard, and not only did he just defend them, but he did an incredibly decent job at defending them.
Spurs Offensive Notes. Parker didn't take many shots this game, and Duncan finally had an efficient game. For some reason though, other Spurs players picked up some of the NQ slack by throwing up some NQ shots. Green continued his incredible shooting, while Neal somehow... managed to shoot (at least in my recorded shots) 6-10 from deep, despite only 4 of those being quality shots.
Heat Offensive Notes. Again James and Wade slight NQ offenders, everyone else was incredibly decent. (other than that they were out rebounded and stuff, it's a bit odd that the Heat lost this game so badly)
Game 4
Heat Defense. Miller had oddly poor defense this game. James (FINALLY!) played like an elite defender. Cole submitted another very good defensive effort. Battier (per usual, when he gets decent playing time) was a good defender. Wade was gambling all over the place, and as such, actually had no 'medium/average' defenses, but was instead towards the high or low quality end of the defensive spectrum.
Spurs Defense. Leonard (once again) was very good. Parker and Neal are still not being attacked enough. Ginobili was a very poor defender. Duncan had a lot of total defenses, but didn't perform very well. Green had as many defensive possessions charted as Chris Bosh! (they might share my record for most defenses in a game) And while Green obviously was not always perfect, he still did an incredibly decent job of defending the opposition.
Spurs Offensive Notes. Duncan with his second straight fairly efficient game. Once again, Neal hit a very high number of NQ 3's. Probably due to Miami's defense the Spurs took an oddly low amount of Q 3's this game, only 6 total shots.
Heat Offensive Notes. A pristine offensive performance by the Heat, except for Wade.. Wade had 8 NQ shots, which meant that he tied with Neal as shooting the most NQ shots. Wade and Lebron were effectively constantly attacking or pulling up for midrange jumpers this game, as such the Heat attempted a lower than usual number of threes.
Overarching notes.
The combined NQ shots of Parker, Neal, and Duncan are greater than all the combined NQ shots by the Heat.
Duncan has taken 17 NQ shots.. And hit a grand total of zero of them. Parker is slightly better, shooting 26 NQ shots and hitting 6 of them. Neal has taken a total of 23 NQ shots and he has hit 11 of them. (most of which were 3's)
Wade is the worst NQ offender on the other side, he has taken 17 and splashed 6 of them.
MVD
Green and Bosh/Anderson have been their team's Most Valuable Defenders through 4.
MVOP
I can't really split the tie on this one.. So it's a 3 way tie on Miami's side. Chalmers, Bosh, and Allen. (Somewhat honorable mention to LBJ and Anderson, who did not qualify due to lack of shot attempts)
Gary Neal.. Kidding, kidding. This side looks much uglier than the Heat side of the table. Another tie.. Green and Leonard. (Somewhat honorable mention to Diaw, but nowhere close to enough shot attempts to qualify)
MVP
Hopefully the remaining 2 or 3 games will provide some real difference between these three players. But, until then, I have a three-way tie between, Bosh, Allen, and Anderson.
(Honorable mention to Chalmers and not quite as honorable mention to James.)
On San Antonio's side it is certainly Danny Green for MVP.
 |
| These are the complete team stats for games 1-4. |
According to my statistics over this series the Heat should have outscored the Spurs 96.3 to 89.8.
All of this took a lot longer than I expected it to take [and I didn't get around to posting the individual team stats (which I will probably never bother posting then) ] so I won't go over this post with a fine-tooth comb looking for mistakes. Sorry if there are a lot of blunders. Thanks for reading, God bless.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Griz vs Spurs G3 and Heat vs Pacers G 6-7 Notes and Statistical Breakdown, 2013
Well, that was certainly a long post name. I couldn't think of many other decent shortened versions, so I just went with that.
Grizzlies vs Spurs Game 3
Here are my notes from this game.
Duncan is still getting breakaway dunks at 37?
Pondexter "foul"
Spurs almost never stop moving..!
Spurs are playing 'small ball', Bonner at the PF.
Amazing Spurs touch pass from high post. (This was a very impressive play and the Spurs did it twice with different players) Similar to this, only from the High Post. The two plays resulted in easy layup attempts each time.
Parker is always probing.
Ugh, hate the high pick and roll chuck.
Memphis Griz logo looks nice. (random)
Great pushes by Tony Allen. (He had quite a few fastbreak layups)
Diaw's threes resulted in good things.
Nasty back door cut by Leonard.
Good Hammer action from the Spurs.
If you have any questions about the graph, then please ask away.
Whoops.. I did this for two out of three graphs, but in the future I'll try not to block out part of the graph with the mouse 'tips'.
These graphs and the numbers therein are based on charting a game as to whether a player is taking quality shots and being a quality defender or the opposite.
Some of the main points from this graph are that on a possession to possession basis (based entirely on what kind of offensive look they were getting for this stat) the Spurs 'should' average 1.20 pts and the Grizzlies should average 1.17. Both defenses gave the same overall number for defensive rating 1.12 (A higher number is good in both cases). So overall the raw numbers have the Spurs with the very slight advantage per offensive possession, 1.11 to the Grizzlies 1.09.
The expected score for the game when adjusted for defense is Grizzlies 104.6 to Spurs 92.0.
The reason for the Grizzlies having such an advantage, while the Spurs were actually having the slightly better game offensively, was because I charted 17 more shots for the Grizzlies. The 'real' box score had 15 more shots for the Grizzlies. It's not often that the team which shoots 15 fewer shots wins the game. However, that (obviously) did not happen. The 'real' score for the game was an OT victory for the Spurs 104-93.
Unless I looked at the box scores incorrectly, I think the Grizzlies outrebounded and had fewer turnovers than the Spurs in EVERY SINGLE GAME. (except for game 3 in which the Spurs outrebounded the Griz by 2, although the Griz still grabbed 6 more offensive rebounds)
I would guess that this has happened before in a playoff series.. But, wow. It takes a much, much higher FG% on your side to beat an opponent that is constantly outrebounding and committing fewer turnovers than you are.
Heat vs Pacers Game 6
Bosh does a good job of hustling.
Cole is owning Hibbert by shooting open jumpers.
How many missed Pacer dunks have there been?
How fast is Lebron? Wow.
Tagline from the NBA was, "Win or go Home." Imho, that is completely inaccurate, the Pacers are obviously already @home so the tagline should be, "Win or Stay Home."
Hibbert has mostly just had a few tip-ins. Only a few hook shots.
I despise Lebron iso jumpers (And that is on repeat in the Finals)
Lebron passes are so crisp.
I certainly don't get into the "NBA CONSPIRACY" stuff, but seriously, the Pacers have gotten not only every 50-50 call, but every 60-40 call as well. Odd. (And that basically happened all series.) I certainly don't think it's a conspiracy or anything like that, but I do think it could have been some sort of bias against the Heat, since the Heat aren't exactly a well-liked team.
Wade is on George.. (And it worked out soo well..)
Heat vs Pacers Game 7
Main points - The Heat had a somewhat significant advantage on offense, while the Pacers had a somewhat significant advantage on defense. And (somehow) I again charted more Heat shots.
Expected points Heat 99.8 Pacers 82.3.
Actual result Heat 99 Pacers 76 (Typo: The 78 should have been 76).
Finally the 'right' team won. And finally my final expected points numbers were fairly accurate.. Or you could turn that around and say that finally the 'real score' almost matched what it should have matched.
I suppose I'll go ahead and break this into two parts. The next blog post should be somewhat similar to this, and will deal with the NBA Finals.
Grizzlies vs Spurs Game 3
Here are my notes from this game.
Duncan is still getting breakaway dunks at 37?
Pondexter "foul"
Spurs almost never stop moving..!
Spurs are playing 'small ball', Bonner at the PF.
Amazing Spurs touch pass from high post. (This was a very impressive play and the Spurs did it twice with different players) Similar to this, only from the High Post. The two plays resulted in easy layup attempts each time.
Parker is always probing.
Ugh, hate the high pick and roll chuck.
Memphis Griz logo looks nice. (random)
Great pushes by Tony Allen. (He had quite a few fastbreak layups)
Diaw's threes resulted in good things.
Nasty back door cut by Leonard.
Good Hammer action from the Spurs.
If you have any questions about the graph, then please ask away.
Whoops.. I did this for two out of three graphs, but in the future I'll try not to block out part of the graph with the mouse 'tips'.
These graphs and the numbers therein are based on charting a game as to whether a player is taking quality shots and being a quality defender or the opposite.
Some of the main points from this graph are that on a possession to possession basis (based entirely on what kind of offensive look they were getting for this stat) the Spurs 'should' average 1.20 pts and the Grizzlies should average 1.17. Both defenses gave the same overall number for defensive rating 1.12 (A higher number is good in both cases). So overall the raw numbers have the Spurs with the very slight advantage per offensive possession, 1.11 to the Grizzlies 1.09.
The expected score for the game when adjusted for defense is Grizzlies 104.6 to Spurs 92.0.
The reason for the Grizzlies having such an advantage, while the Spurs were actually having the slightly better game offensively, was because I charted 17 more shots for the Grizzlies. The 'real' box score had 15 more shots for the Grizzlies. It's not often that the team which shoots 15 fewer shots wins the game. However, that (obviously) did not happen. The 'real' score for the game was an OT victory for the Spurs 104-93.
Unless I looked at the box scores incorrectly, I think the Grizzlies outrebounded and had fewer turnovers than the Spurs in EVERY SINGLE GAME. (except for game 3 in which the Spurs outrebounded the Griz by 2, although the Griz still grabbed 6 more offensive rebounds)
I would guess that this has happened before in a playoff series.. But, wow. It takes a much, much higher FG% on your side to beat an opponent that is constantly outrebounding and committing fewer turnovers than you are.
Heat vs Pacers Game 6
Bosh does a good job of hustling.
Cole is owning Hibbert by shooting open jumpers.
How many missed Pacer dunks have there been?
How fast is Lebron? Wow.
Tagline from the NBA was, "Win or go Home." Imho, that is completely inaccurate, the Pacers are obviously already @home so the tagline should be, "Win or Stay Home."
Hibbert has mostly just had a few tip-ins. Only a few hook shots.
I despise Lebron iso jumpers (And that is on repeat in the Finals)
Lebron passes are so crisp.
I certainly don't get into the "NBA CONSPIRACY" stuff, but seriously, the Pacers have gotten not only every 50-50 call, but every 60-40 call as well. Odd. (And that basically happened all series.) I certainly don't think it's a conspiracy or anything like that, but I do think it could have been some sort of bias against the Heat, since the Heat aren't exactly a well-liked team.
Wade is on George.. (And it worked out soo well..)
According to the numbers here, the Pacers had the slightly better defense and the slightly worse offense (sorry about the typo), while the Heat took 3 more shots than the Pacers (that I charted).
I forgot to mention above that these series expected points (and really all the data) are very slightly off, because I updated my main data sets after I had already finished these three games.
Oddly, according to the expected points numbers, the Heat were supposed to win 86.4 to 86.3.
The actual score was in favor of the Pacers 91-77.
I had a lack of notes for G7 for some reason.
Lebron was missing his shots long (Maybe.. This note was hard to understand.)
Lebron's 30 pts have been fairly quiet. (It's interesting how often he does this. You are just casually, or even intently, watching a game and suddenly the announcer says "Lebron has 20", and you do a double take. Lebron's points generally look somewhat effortless. Although that hasn't yet been the case in the Finals)
The Heat have won 48 of their last 53 games, wow.
Expected points Heat 99.8 Pacers 82.3.
Actual result Heat 99 Pacers 76 (Typo: The 78 should have been 76).
Finally the 'right' team won. And finally my final expected points numbers were fairly accurate.. Or you could turn that around and say that finally the 'real score' almost matched what it should have matched.
I suppose I'll go ahead and break this into two parts. The next blog post should be somewhat similar to this, and will deal with the NBA Finals.
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Finals Preview: Heat vs Spurs 2013
THE NBA FINALS
The longer the series goes, the less likely that SA will win. Even though that kind of goes against Gregg Popovich being a great coach, I think that because I don't know if SA can win game 6 in Miami and I'm fairly certain that they couldn't win a game 7.
WOW. Miami and the Spurs are certainly the class of the playoffs. SA boasts a 10.1 net scoring margin while Miami has a 9.6 net scoring margin. The next closest, the Knicks, are at 2.7! Obviously part of this is due to Miami and the Spurs completely crushing their first round opponents, but that is still quite impressive for both teams.
There are quite a few similarities in each teams' stats.
The Heat haven't lost consecutive games since JANUARY. Depending on how you want to count.. That is 6, six, SIX months ago. That is quite incredible. So if the trend were to continue, then to lockup the series the Heat would only have to win game 1.
PG Cole or Chalmers vs Tony Parker
Cole was not really a heavy usage player in the regular season, but due to some improved play he has seen his minutes tick up in the playoffs. Win Shares despises Cole. I think that Cole defending Parker makes a ton of sense. Cole should do a very decent job.
Chalmers is very inconsistent (partly due to limited shots per game), sometimes he'll toss up 20 points and the next game he'll only get 8.
Tony Parker has been a fairly legit bronze MVP the last two years. In the last series he had an 18 assist (and 15 point) game and a 37 point game. Very impressive stuff.
Obviously the edge is going to the Spurs, but it is not by a tremendous margin.
SG Dwayne Wade vs Danny Green
Wade has been struggling a lot as of late. His jumper is erratic (especially thanks to him taking NQ shots) and he usually does not have the energy to blow by his man.
Danny Green has a TS% in the area of Lebron and Parker, but only takes about 8 shots a game.
Unless D-Wade regains his 2012 form, then this could actually be a very even matchup. Slight edge Miami.
SF Lebron James vs Kawhi Leonard
Lebron James can turn in a triple double in any given game, or simply toss in 35 and be a lockdown defender. He's the best player on the planet, and he wants to add another ring to his hand.
Kawhi Leonard is a player who has grown by leaps and bounds since coming into the league. However, he will be vastly over matched against Lebron. Leonard's ability to cut and hit 3s will be key in having good spacing for the Spurs.
No offense to Leonard, but the definitive edge here kind of goes with out saying.. Miami.
PF Udonis Haslem vs Tim Duncan
Haslem provided some absolutely critical baskets in the Pacers series and he actually provided an offensive spark... Occasionally.
Tim Duncan is the most polished PF in the game, and while he is not often talked about as this.. He is one of the best players of all time. If he turns in a performance significantly less than 20 and 10, then a fan of the Spurs is generally surprised.
Not as bad a matchup in terms of pure athleticism/freakishness for Haslem, but Duncan has many more post moves than Hibbert and Duncan even has a fairly reliable jumper. Solid edge to the Spurs.
C Chris Bosh vs Tiago Splitter (which I always hear in Stephen A's condescending voice)
Chris Bosh was actually having a decent playoff run up until 4 games ago (though his rebounding problems started in G1 against Indy), since that point his shooting has suffered tremendously. I expect both aspects to improve considerably against Splitter.
Tiago Splitter is an underrated player and he's only been in the league 3 years, so he can certainly improve even more. He may not stuff the box score, but his defense is quite decent.
Not a considerable edge, but still a definitely noticeable edge to Miami.
The remaining 4 players I'll attempt to matchup according to position.
SG Ginobili vs SG Allen
Ginobili is saying that he is now fairly healthy, the problem is that he and the Spurs face the Heat's swarming defense. I don't expect great things from Ginobili in this series.
Allen has had a bit of a cold stretch, but I expect him to have a good series. His quick release threes will provide plenty of extra spacing for the other Heat players to have decent driving lanes.
Generally Ginobili would win the battle here, but in this series I think Allen will have the very slight upper hand. Miami.
PG Gary Neal vs SG Mike Miller
Gary Neal is a decent backup point guard, but he will likely lose the battle against Cole and Chalmers.
Depending on matchups and foul trouble, etc, Miller may be getting single digit minutes this series, or he could be a semi-relevant bench player. I'm expecting most of the former, but still he should get more minutes than last series.
Neal wins somewhat comfortably, due to the lack of minutes for Miller. Spurs.
C Boris Diaw vs PF Shane Battier or C Chris Anderson
Diaw puts up even less numbers than Splitter, don't expect too much impact from him this series either.
(also just wanted to throw in that I think Dejuan Blair is an underrated player who I hope (Since I'm picking the Heat) will not be getting any serious minutes in the Finals.)
Shane Battier has been very cold from deep lately, though I still think he should be getting more minutes. Now that the Heat are past the Pacers, he should get a few more minutes.
Chris Anderson (obviously) isn't actually the MVP of the Heat, even though I sometimes I joke that he is. Anderson provides a great spark for the Heat. Effectively speaking, he doesn't do a lot on the box score, the thing is that he provides so many great bench minutes that would otherwise be going to someone like (and no offense meant to him or others) Joel Anthony. Heat.
Coaching
Erik Spoelstra vs Gregg Popovich
Erik Spoelstra had some odd matchups in the last series, but I don't really expect too many problems in this series.
Gregg Popovich has kind of obliterated the opposing coach in each series, and he is actually the main reason why I see this series going 6. If the coaches were swapped, then I would take the Heat in a very comfortable 5. Spurs.
Miami Crowd vs SA Crowd
No big advantage to either side here. Miami's crowd has finally started to realize the Heat are good, and SA's crowd has basically been coming all season. Push.
** Quick aside
Looks like the 'curse' of being named Coach of the Year has struck again. Coach Karl is out, despite winning 57 games and losing a key player right before the playoffs. I don't completely hate the move or anything, because Coach Karl may not be a great coach, but still he was a very competent coach, who at least gets his team into the playoffs (effectively) each and every year. I think a great spot for him to coach is in Charlotte, not as some sort of punishment or anything, but because I think he could get the best out of that young team, and provide much more exciting and fast-paced basketball for the city. (Not that I'm saying I want Steve Clifford to be fired or anything, while he is unproven, I generally like 'no name' hires, and as such I kind of think Clifford will do a decent job.)
FINALS PREDICTION
Miami is the first team facing SA that I thought could actually beat the Spurs.. Except for the Lakers anyways. (/cough) And SA is the first team facing Miami that I think could possibly beat the Heat.
Best case for the Spurs, win in 6. Best case for the Heat, win in 4.
Yeah, I might be too favorable to the Heat, but honestly other than the Duncan matchup, I think the Heat should do quite well in this series. Overall the matchups claim to be somewhat close, Miami won the matchups in this count, 5-4 with a push.
The Heat are 12-1 in their playoffs series in the Big Three Era... 12-1. And yet people still complain that the Heat aren't 'good' enough.. What a joke. This may be because people love to 'hate' the Heat, but seriously folks can be very dense sometimes. According to SportsNation (Scientific, no, but I don't know why anyone would want to mess with the results.) the Pacers were favorites (by the public) 51-49 over the Heat, and the same 51-49 is what the public favors the Spurs over the Heat. This might be the only situation where the PU Spurs should actually be the somewhat heavy underdogs.
I have the Heat winning in 6, though I certainly thought about other possibilities. This is the least certain I have been about a series since the first round.
NBA Conference Finals Review
1 Miami Heat vs 3 Indiana Pacers
Predicted Miami in 6, actual result was Miami in 7.
Well, thanks to the coaching of Erik Spoelstra, and a certain play by Chris Birdman Anderson, the Pacers best possible scenario came true. Otherwise Miami in 6 would have come through.
2 San Antonio vs 5 Memphis
Predicted Spurs in 5 actual result was Spurs in 4.
Weird, I predicted a much quicker series than most folks did and yet I was still too long. Overall though, I am also quite satisfied with this pick. All I am generally trying to do is pick the most likely scenario, which in this case happened to be Spurs in 5.
In games 1 and 4 the Spurs had a fairly sizable advantage, in games 2 and 3 the games were much more competitive and both went to overtime. And if you are given 2 theoretical overtime games between somewhat evenly match teams, then the most likely scenario is that each team will win a game. And if that would have occurred than the series would have been at 3-1 in favor of the Spurs, with a home game for the Spurs to (likely) close the series out. Apparently though, the Spurs wanted the sweep instead.
My Finals prediction should be out later today.
Predicted Miami in 6, actual result was Miami in 7.
Well, thanks to the coaching of Erik Spoelstra, and a certain play by Chris Birdman Anderson, the Pacers best possible scenario came true. Otherwise Miami in 6 would have come through.
2 San Antonio vs 5 Memphis
Predicted Spurs in 5 actual result was Spurs in 4.
Weird, I predicted a much quicker series than most folks did and yet I was still too long. Overall though, I am also quite satisfied with this pick. All I am generally trying to do is pick the most likely scenario, which in this case happened to be Spurs in 5.
In games 1 and 4 the Spurs had a fairly sizable advantage, in games 2 and 3 the games were much more competitive and both went to overtime. And if you are given 2 theoretical overtime games between somewhat evenly match teams, then the most likely scenario is that each team will win a game. And if that would have occurred than the series would have been at 3-1 in favor of the Spurs, with a home game for the Spurs to (likely) close the series out. Apparently though, the Spurs wanted the sweep instead.
My Finals prediction should be out later today.
Sunday, June 2, 2013
Lebron James is guarding David WEST?
Quick preface. The last post was just in my drafts, so I didn't have to do anything but quickly edit it. So it's not often that I will actually post twice in a day, but here is a blog which is actually on time and relevant.
My suggestions for the Heat to implement in game 7.
Lebron James is one of the few players on the NBA All Defensive First-Team who isn't on the First-Team as part of a facade. I'm not necessarily saying that any of the First or Second Team Defenders are poor defenders, (though in the case of a player like Kobe Bryant, I am certainly willing to say it.. It's kind of a joke that he has made [this was just my quick count, so I could have miscounted] 12 of the last 14 all defensive teams either on the first or second team. He hasn't always been as bad a defender as he was the last two years, but still, I don't know if he has ever been a top ten defender in the NBA. And he most definitely has not been a top 10 defender 12 of the last 14 years.) I'm just saying that a large portion of being in the top two tiers is just based on the player's name ID and relevance, as opposed to the player's actual ability and performance in defending other players for that given year.
I got side-tracked a little there with what my main point is... Anyways.. Lebron James is a great defender, and while I haven't had the chances to watch too much of the Heat and Pacers games so I don't know if Lebron guarding West is in the 60th percentile or the 90th percentile, but I do know that I do not understand why Lebron James is guarding David WEST. David West.
Lebron James, apparently, isn't (mainly) being put on Hibbert, or Paul George, he's not even being put on George Hill to create havoc, heck, he's not even being put on Stephenson so that James can rest and be more productive on the offensive end. It does not make any sense.
I'll go ahead and go through each player individually.
LBJ on Roy Hibbert makes some sense to me because, A. The Heat effectively have no players who would actually matchup with Hibbert better than Lebron James does, other than possibly Bosh. B. Lebron is vaugly superhuman, so I don't think that guarding Hibbert would tire him as much as it would a normal player. However, I still think it would tire him more than guarding any of the other Pacer's players, except for David West and possibly George Hill.
Lebron on Lance Stephenson.. Well, I actually already stated my main reason for it being better for Lebron to guard Stephenson as opposed to West. The reason is less effort exerted on the defensive end, so Lebron could have more energy for the offensive end.
James on George Hill would not really provide Lebron with more rest, but it would create massive havoc for the other team. If the Pacer's floor general is out of commission then the Pacers offense would have some major problems.
Lebron on David West seems a bit dense to me because, (and I could be wrong) West is usually a physical, Memphis-type Grizzly Grinder (Ha, I just thought that phrase up, I'm totally using a slight variation of that in my Spurs-Griz series recap). He shoots about an average % for a PF, though that is actually kind of decent for the Pacers. He shoots a couple more shots a game as opposed to an average PF, but that certainly is not a great reason to place Lebron on him. Overall, it makes no sense as to why LBJ is on David WEST.
 |
| I just got bumped!! Who bumped me?? Oh, I see Hansbrough, he's a scrappy player, it must have been him. I know, I'll deck Tyler Hansbrough on National TV, I'm certain no one will see me do it either. |
Finally, the last matchup analysis, Lebron on Paul George. George stuffs the stat sheet in just about every statistic Lebron does. George is kind of like a mini-Lebron (I don't mean that as an insult, obviously), except that George also has turnovers. (Lebron James puts up an insane EFG net of shooting about 10% better than the player he is guarding, while P George puts up an extremely impressive net of about 6%.) It just makes sense to me to have Lebron shutdown George. I have a lot more respect for Coach Spoelstra than most people have for him, but this decision (of his I'm assuming) for Lebron to guard West is not exactly the best idea in the world. And I would hope that he has learned from his mistake, and will not have Lebron be West's primary defender in game 7.
Why is there so much 'strong like' for Indy? Is it just the 'hate' the country has for the Heat, or what? Like quite a few things I've been talking about in this blog, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
Why did Chris Andersen deck Hansbrough? Of course the dude does look like the above image, and he does other various crazy type things, so yeah, the things which he does on the court probably shouldn't make a lot of sense anyways.
Paul George just had two games, one after the other, consecutively, in a row, (I'm guessing you get the point) in which he shot a decent percentage, that will not be happening in game 7.
My preference is to have Lebron guard P George 70% of the time, Hibbert 15% of the time and then 15% on any random Pacer due to switches, or if a player is hot and the like.
I will be quite interested in watching and (and to my limited extent) dissecting the game tomorrow night. It should be interesting to see the matchups in general and, in particular, who Lebron will be guarding.
Thanks for reading, feel free to comment. (Haha, like anyone's going to do that.) God bless.
Overall NFL Season Spread Records, 2012
Straight up
With the exception of the Ravens at 6-10, the lowest records I had were 7-9's. I just did not have many high performers (with the exception of the Texans at 14-2) and couldn't get above the 11-5 mark.
Spread
I had a couple more bad records (though no completely horrible teams) and had 7 teams finish 6-10. Once again the upper limit was basically an 11-5 record.
I was destroying it in the first half of the season, correctly predicting around 65% of the spreads, but in the second half of the season I was worse than flipping a coin and was around 40%.
Overall, I finished with a disappointing 57% accuracy on picking straight up.. Simply picking the favorite in each game would quite possibly have provided a better %. I was also a little disappointed with only hitting 53% in terms of correct spread predictions.
Friday, May 24, 2013
NBA Second Round Review 2013
I had a few more things to do than expected, so I'm a day late in editing and posting this. I am not certain, but this is quite possibly the longest blog post I have ever posted. It at least cracked the 4,500 word count anyways. Since the Oklahoma City Thunder were knocked out of the playoffs, I spent a lot of time focusing on that series.
1 Miami vs 5 Chicago
Predicted Miami in 5, actual result was Miami in 5.
If Chicago had won game 3 instead of game 1, then nothing unexpected happened in this series. However, the Bulls did actually win game 1, which was a bit surprising to me. The Bulls played a tough series against the Heat, they were just severely undermanned. Since February 1st the Heat have lost to just two teams: NY one time (when the Heat were playing their bench and Carmelo scored 50) and Chicago twice.
Near the end of the regular season I was quite impressed by the Heat's bench, the Heat's 2nd squad, somehow keeping the Heat's record close to pristine. Not many (if any), teams could simply take out their best players and still compete and beat both the dregs and the elites of the NBA.
Back to the one surprising thing about this series.. While I did not get a chance to watch game 1 or much of the other Bulls-Heat games. I kind of wonder if Coach Spoelstra either intentionally lost this game, or simply did not put his best effort into this game. Curious. After game one, a news clipping came out about LeBron guarding Nate Robinson.... Just wondering here, but why would LeBron not have guarded Robinson in game one?
I think there is something to be said for having this thought as a coach in the NBA: What person or players on the other team am I worried about, because they can beat us? (I applied this thought to the GS vs Denver series two posts ago.)
And.. To be honest, there isn't a person on the Bulls that should be a threat to most good NBA teams. So no one officially makes the list, but the closest person to making it is Robinson. Hence, Lebron should be on Robinson. Not exactly rocket science, but it is effective. Maybe a little bit unfair to Robinson to be guarded by the best NBA athlete on the planet who happens to be 6ft 8', but I don't think a coach should really care about what is 'fair' to the other team.
The only game in which Nate Robinson really went off was game one when he shot 50% from the field, after (I assume) the Heat made the switch so that LeBron would generally guard him, Robinson's shooting performances were awful, with an exclamation point marked for him at game 4 in which he shot 0-12 from the field. I would think that it would not be very difficult to decide to put your best defender on their best scorer. Still though, it's understandable why the Heat 'lost' game one (with a wink and a nod to Coach Spoelstra).
2 New York vs 3 Indiana
I predicted Indiana in 6, the actual result was Indiana in 6.
I have something earth shattering to say.. Inefficient scorers do not beat good defenses! (A real shocker I know..) If I would have had a game by game prediction before the series, then I would have (effectively) almost perfectly predicted the series. Like much of the Heat-Bulls series, nothing really out of the ordinary for this series.
You can have your Carmelo's and JR Smith's of the world, I'll take the James Harden's and Chandler Parson's in the league. Let's see who wins..
Also, if Carmelo would ever want to lose his mindset of 'I'm the best __ player in the world, so I'll just shoot any time the ball is given to me.' And instead adopt some sort of mix between KD and Lebron, in terms of passing and shot efficiency, then Carmelo could become a very dangerous player.. And get this.. He might even be able to advance past a team with a positive point differential in the playoffs.. Something that he does not like to accomplish.
Quick aside, I kind of wonder why it is so much more natural to say Carmelo and LeBron, both first names, while with a name like Kevin Durant, I naturally want to say Durant, the last name. Anyways, however, on to the one series which did not make any sense.
1 Oklahoma City vs 5 Memphis
To borrow a line from a Wages of Win article, there was too much Perky Fish. 'Perky Fish' being Kendrick Perkins and Derek Fisher. I like Fisher as a person, the guy is a Christian and seems like a fairly nice person. However.. He is 38 years old, and should probably.. not be getting serious minutes on a championship level contending team. A little bit flabbergasting to see him get 31 minutes in game 5 and many minutes throughout the other games.
His mental lapse turnover near the end of game 4 (I think it was) was unfortunate, but I don't hold it against him. Also Fisher was certainly playing better than he had in the regular season, so I don't have a huge problem with Coach Brooks playing him many more minutes in the playoffs.
On to the 'other' guy. Kendrick Perkins.. Oh how I like him, let me count the ways... Hmm.. This is difficult.
Okay, forgetting that relatively impossible exercise.. (joking, joking) I think it is fairly well documented on this blog that I do not like Kendrick Perkins game. He might be the 'king' of the illegal screen, (although he is only called for it occasionally). His defensive game is poor against agile and crafty opponents, and slightly below average against 'general' bigs such as Marc Gasol. His offensive scoring game is ugly, to put it kindly. And as an added bonus, he has more /facepalm turnovers than I even have. It's like he's trying to catch the basketball with iron hands or something, the ball simply bounces off of his hands half the time. (slight exaggeration obviously). And his passing??? Perkin's Fail yeah, that was one of Perkins' best passes, it's just too bad it was to the wrong team. At least he apparently takes responsibility for his mistakes Perkins' Mistake (Although I don't know why coach Brooks is talking about bets. Just kidding.) it's just that he should not be in a position to make them with a championship-level team.
However, on the bright side. Perkins did set a new record.. In futility. Somehow, he managed to set the all-time playoff record in horrible PER (for those qualified), his PER was -0.7! I don't even know how you achieve a negative PER! (though I probably should look into that sometime) That is insane. Perkins wasn't just hurting the Thunder, he was actively helping the Grizzlies!
And, to be fair, while Perkins did also put out far and away the worst WP48 on the team, Nick Collison also had a negative WP48 against Memphis. Though that still means that Collison, or anyone else, should have been playing over Perkins.
So the Thunder effectively tossed Harden to keep Perkins, instead of amnestying him?? Whhhat? Didn't make very much sense then, makes even less sense now.
It turns out that Vegas (odd how they tend to be this..) was accurate in saying that Memphis was the favorite.
If the Thunder had to lose a series at some point in the playoffs, then at least they lost the way they did.. Kevin Durant had a very ugly shooting performance in game 5, 5 for 21, and overall performance, 7 turnovers. I would imagine, that he will be one of the hardest working NBA players in the off-season. Scarily enough, he should be even better next year. Maybe not by matching or improving on his 90-50-40 performance (since that is extremely difficult to do), but I think he can be better defensively, and at creating shots for his teammates.
Didn't catch all of this game, but the lack of movement for the Thunder offense especially in connection to get Durant open was fairly disappointing. I was fine with Coach Brooks experimenting for a short while with Hasheem Thabeet against the Grizzlies for the first 2 games. Thabeet is (I think) the only player on the Thunder who would actually beat the Randolph and Gasol in height while also effectively matching them in weight.
The Foul Fallacy.
Did you know that when a player fouls out, that player is not only lost for that game, but also for the next game as well?
Did you know that when a player fouls out, that player is not only lost for that game, but also for the next game as well?
At least that is what it feels like (practically) whenever a player gets a couple quick fouls..
Somewhat typical coach speak. Oh blah has 3 fouls and we're only 2 minutes into the second quarter? That must mean that I should bench blah until the second half starts.
If there are certain matchups which perpetuate quick fouls against blah, then yes, you should consider benching blah until the other player creating the matchup problem leaves the court. All minutes are (theoretically) not created equally in basketball. Most coaches would prefer to have a superstar level player for the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter, rather than 5 random minutes in the second quarter. So I suppose, that for some coaches it can make sense to bench a player if he is in foul trouble.
Also when you are giving your player rest on the bench, your player will be more rested. And when a player is rested, then your player will tend to make less mistakes. (which I would mostly agree with this logic)
Overall, I think coaches make too many changes to basic rotation based on fear. If I leave blah in, then it is nearly certain that the other team will perpetually attack blah until he fouls out of the game! As I said before, 'all minutes are not created equally', however a coach cannot always accurately predict the future, so yes the other team might attack blah more often (which might be a less efficient offense for them), and yes he may eventually foul out.. But, he also might not. And in the meantime, you just got the 'relative' maximum number of minutes from him.
While relative is usually relative.. It's even more relative than usual here.. If that made sense. To try and elaborate on this point.. Assume that blah, if left in the game during his normal rotation stints, will only be able to play an average of 22 minutes, while if a coach takes him out, then he will be able to play for an average of 25 minutes, but he will sit on the bench for 5 minutes of his normal rotation spot. (assuming that all fouls were created somewhat equally.. Which they are not.) The thing is in this situation is that most of the time this player would only play 23 minutes more of rotation time.. So in essence you are trading one minute of crunch time playing for three minutes of 'regular' playing time. Imho, that doesn't sound like a fair trade to me.
I would tend to think that, even though it is not in the forefront of their minds, most referees do not like to eject players. Random beyond insignificant small sample size point, in the last 4 games for the 4 different series, there were 5 players with 5 fouls and one player with 6 fouls.
Other than game 1 (in which the Thunder won the TO battle by one possession) the Thunder lost the TO battle in each game and somewhat directly lost each game.
+- is (obviously) not the only or necessarily the best statistic in basketball.. But, listen to this.. (or read as the case happens to be) Surprise-surprise, Perkins tied for the worst +-. He tied with Reggie Jackson.
Other +- notes. Sefolosha had games where he was +10 and other games where he was -10, so a bit random for him. Ibaka had a very low deviation game by game. Last note.. While Martin was decentish in +-, I think the winner was Derek-38 years old-Fisher.
I think that overall the Thunder losing the series was just randomness.. 5 toss up games, but they only managed to win one of them. However, there may have been a bit of a snowball effect in the series. Also as a hint to the Spurs.. Don't lose a game to Memphis and you should win the series. In Memphis' first series they lost two to the Clips, then won 4 straight, then they lost one to OKC and then Memphis won 4 straight..
Sefolosha was kind of a liability on offense, he never scored double digits in the series.. (Partially because the Thunder don't let him shoot all that often) I think he should have played a lot more than he did.
Kind of curious... But, KD progressively shot worse from game 1 to game 5. FATIGUE anyone? I don't want to mention any names, SCOTT BROOKS, but KD is not LeBron James. He can't be playing 44+ minutes while guarding any and every position! Would anyone want to guess how many minutes of rest KD got in the series? (not counting TV commercials, because those things are long.. heh, just kidding - sort of) 16 minutes. SIXTEEN MINUTES! GOODNIGHT. Why didn't the Thunder just forfeit the series beforehand? Sixteen minutes.. (Could have slightly misleading data.. I heard different minutes rest for KD, but I'm just going off of KD's minutes played on ESPN) I don't care if Durant wants to play every minute or if he wants to get 10 minutes of rest. The coach makes the decisions. The coach, not the player.. (I think Coach D'antoni just called and he said that Coach Brooks had some weird rotations and that he didn't know how to stand up to his superstar player.)
If anyone thinks that fatigue doesn't affect players at least to a certain extent, then I've got a 2013 OKC championship to sell you.. No, actually I do not, because for some reason Scott Brooks believed that fatigue does not affect players.
It would be interesting if there would be a correlation between rest and shooting % for superstar players. I'll hopefully look into that a little at some point, it's possible that I'll find some good stuff, but I kind of doubt I'll find very much.
 |
| It had to be the defense that caused Durant to struggle. Actually, Coach Brooks, your offensive sets lacked creativity and you played Durant far too many minutes. |
I was quite fine with the mostly open KD jumper to attempt to tie the game in game 5. Unlike Coach Brooks I would not have taken it 100 times out of 100 times.. Normally I would say that I'm fine with that play call and result about 75% of the time.. However, circumstances demand that be about 15% lower. Kevin Durant was having (I'm fairly certain) the worst playoff game of his career.
So while I was fine with the call, I would have also been fine with (and to a certain extent preferred) to have KD off ball, while Jackson dribbles up top. Then, Ibaka and Collison set a double screen on Prince to create some space for Durant, who then (provided there is space) receives the pass and either takes the quick shot, or takes either Prince or whoever has switched on to him to the hoop. On the off chance Durant can't receive the pass, then Ibaka comes up top for a pick and roll with Jackson.
I think that my play-call is a little better than Coach Brooks iso call. How imaginative can you get? I know.. Let's call an ISOLATION WITH KEVIN DURANT! That will certainly catch them off guard. (though the funny thing is, since it was actually defended poorly by Memphis, KD [on an off night] got a very good look anyways).
(Originally I was doing this meticulously through ESPN... Lots of fun.. But, then I remembered Basketball Reference [And I don't know why I forgot about them in the first place] and that helped a lot.)
The results that I saw in which KD played 48 minutes or more in any regular or playoff season game, he shot 245 of 537 for .456%. Not an amazing set of data to compare to his career average, plus there are other factors to consider so the results were effectively, completely inconclusive. KD's career average is .475% so only .019% higher, or 2% better. And while 2% isn't anything to sneeze at, I would imagine a portion of that can be explained by the relative fact that Durant would be facing tougher teams when he plays 48 or more minutes per game, hence generally better defenses, which would obviously correlate to a lower shooting percentage.
So it is somewhat possible that KD's shooting performance as the result of fatigue was simply a flawed data set, especially because in the 22 sets of games in which BR found 48 minutes or more playing time for KD, the two most recent Memphis games were numbers 19 and 22.
However a rebuttal to that is this, the other 48 minutes or more were somewhat random and spread out in between other games in which he played closer to 40 minutes, But in this series he was playing about 46 minutes per game. So the effects of playing a greater than average MPG combined with playing a physical Memphis defense and combined with playing some time defensively in the post would certainly tend to equate to a lessened shooting percentage.
This season Durant had one other occurrence of a back to back 48 or more. It occurred in mid January against (@ in both cases) Denver and Dallas, both games were very competitive of course. Durant shot effectively his average in one and way below his average in the other. The Thunder's record is only 12-10 when Durant has 48 or more minutes in the game. (Though this is over a span of a few years when they were a poorer team, and again, the Thunder would be slightly more likely to be facing tougher competition)
Lebron James didn't have an easy time carrying the Cavs. And while KD only had around 3 weeks to actually have his 'own' team... He found out that it is not an easy job to carry a team.
I went ahead and mostly gave Coach Brooks a pass last year in the Finals. But this time he certainly deserves a good portion of the blame.
Russell Westbrook is obviously the reason the Thunder lost the series, Kevin Durant could do almost nothing by himself!! Ha. I got a few chuckles when experts or the common folk made comments such as that. So you're telling me that KD and the Thunder are much worse without Westbrook because they lost a highly competitive series against the Grizzlies, in which KD in 4 consecutive games struggled to finish the game for the Thunder? Assuming you're counting the Houston series, then you're saying that the competitive 4-6 record the Thunder had against two quality playoff opponents is somehow indicative of any performance without Westbrook? You're telling me that 10 games is enough evidence to somehow support your theory? Do you seriously believe that? You're saying that the Thunder coaches and players somehow had enough time to completely reform their offense? That the coaches and players could somehow miraculously adjust to around 32% of the team's usage, in the form of Westbrook shots and assists, suddenly disappearing? That the Thunder could suddenly adjust to their PG, their leader, their quarterback, their floor general, a player who hadn't missed a single game in his pro career, unexpectedly going down with an injury!?
So in case you couldn't get the gist of my comments... I'm just wondering here... What in the world are they thinking? Do they ever happen to think of alternative reasons to their hypothesis being false, or do they simply speak whatever they desire to say from their mouths? Okay.. Obviously the latter, and I think I've had enough of this angle for the Westbrook injury topic.
Westbrook did bring passion. And that was possibly an underrated aspect of his game (by me at the very least). The Thunder started out flat in at least two games in the Grizzlies' series.
In my list of top six reasons as to why the Thunder lost the series against the Grizzlies, Westbrook being gone is #6 (gone and not injured is an important difference in this context. By 'gone' I mean the actual ability of Westbrook to outperform Jackson or Fisher. As opposed to 'injured' in this context, meaning that that the Thunder coaches and players have to completely redefine what they do. If you actually understood what I just said, then congrats, because I did not state the last few sentences very clearly and I even confused myself.).
#1 Coach Brooks and the rest of the coaching staff not revamping and reforming the offense to a level in which it is at least semi-semi competent.
#2 Coach Brooks playing Kevin Durant far too many minutes, while also asking him to occasionally guard the post.
#3 Coach Brooks playing Kendrick Perkins 18 minutes per game, which is around 15 minutes more than he should be getting. (That number might be going off the entire playoffs and not just the Grizzlies series)
#4 Kevin Durant either not having the energy to finish games, or simply not having the right 'lucky' bounces to finish games 2 through 5.
#5 Serge Ibaka mostly losing the ability to hit shots outside of 8 feet.
#6 Westbrook not being able to play and outperform Jackson and Fisher at the position of PG.
Derrick Rose was out with an injury for parts of last season, during which time the Bulls were decentish without him. And as such, comments were made about the team being better without him. While I am not a huge fan of D-Rose, and kind of see him as a leaner-meaner Carmelo Anthony version 2.0, I did think that he was better than CJ Watson at playing and leading the Bulls. In the playoffs the Bulls lost Rose to an injury and then lost to an inferior Philly team (which stunk this year, though their best player, imho, Andre Iguodala left) in 6 games.
This year, despite suffering injury after injury, the Bulls managed to upset the Nets in 7 games and also 'win' a single game against the rusty Heat. How could they have managed to win a series without D-Rose, despite all of their injuries (and sicknesses) this year while last year they couldn't even beat the 76er's? It's fairly simple really.. The coaches and players had time to adjust to life without D-Rose. The coaches had time to experiment with different combinations of players, different mixing and matchings. While a few of the players also had time to learn to accept greater responsibility within the offense.
(I'm kind of repeating myself here, but it's so that I can continue on with the point in regards to the Thunder.) The 2013 Bulls, even with various injuries and diseases, were a better team than the 2012 Bulls. Simply because everyone involved had time to adjust to life without D-Rose. If Westbrook would have had an injury which would require him to sit out most or all of next season, then the 2014 Thunder (ALTHOUGH, part of this is assuming that Coach Brooks would make coaching decisions at least somewhat comparable to Coach Thibodeau) would have been a much better team as compared to the 2013 Thunder.
Maybe it was just because a good portion of people from ESPN like the Bulls, but I did not understand all of the love that the Bulls were receiving after losing in 5 games to the Heat... I mean, credit to the Bulls for getting one game, but they never had any sort of chance at this series. But, some of the podcasts I was listening to were praising the Bulls on how they played, and that the Bulls would be an absolute force to be reckoned with once D-Rose comes back next year. (They must be remembering a different D-Rose than I am) If I remember this, then I'll bring this up again after the Bulls are knocked out of the playoffs next season. [Editor's note: I did remember this, but it didn't actually prove to relevant since D-Rose was injured once again.]
Another annoying Bulls' talking point to me was the D-Rose, 'is he coming back' or 'when will he be back' 'is he a coward' 'does he have no toughness'? Etc, etc. They were all extremely silly talking points then, and they are all still extremely silly talking points now. First of all D-Rose is tough in terms of being able to play through physical pain, mental pain is unknown. He's not a 'coward'. And finally the discussion about when D-Rose would be coming back was insanely silly.. Think about this.. I'm guessing, (Pretending to be telepathic alert..) that D-Rose was partially thinking something along the lines of this, 'Should I come back against the Nets or Heat and either possibly injure myself once again, or simply play poorly and ruin some of my cache?' (because it's awfully silly that anyone seriously thought that he could make a serious contribution when he's been [more or less literally] on ice for the last year and hasn't participated in an NBA game type environment)
2 San Antonio vs 6 Golden State
Immediately after game 1, when SA took 2 OT's to beat GS, I thought that I should have picked SA in 6 instead of 5. So a very slight miss for this series.
This will be my least talked about series. Other than Curry's 44 point barrage in game one, Danny Green did (as expected) a very decent job guarding Curry. Although, Curry's ankle was probably part of the reason for that.
Overall
I think I did a decent job this round. (while proportionality it's actually somewhat similar to my 1st round). The Thunder losing in a toss-up 5 game series was a little bit stinging (And there aren't many toss-up 5 game series), but otherwise I nailed three series. A solid B.
One last note about the Thunder coaching staff. While it's possible that I, or another random NBA fan, may know certain things which the Thunder coaching staff is ignorant about, overall I'm (fairly) sure that that the Thunder coaches are very competent at their jobs and deserve to be in the NBA. They're all good coaches. I wasn't trying to be too much of a stereotypical random fan sitting on your couch pretending you can coach and I wasn't trying to be too hard on Coach Brooks, since dealing with the loss of your floor general is a huge loss, but certain problems, especially continuous ones like Coach Brooks playing too much Kendrick Perkins, should not be entirely ignored.
Even though I talked about the Thunder for a long while, I still have more to pontificate and may possibly have another post about OKC's series with Memphis at some point. Thanks for reading. Hope you enjoyed the very long post, feel free to comment and subscribe.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)