NFL Picks for Week 1
My biggest line miss for week 1 was saying Detroit was a 6.5 point favorite against the Giants (Instead of the 4 point favorite that Vegas says they are), otherwise I was within 2 points for each game, and generally just a half point or full point off.
I'll take four underdogs (Each of them to win outright, as well, technically, but I'll just take the points), GB +5.5 (The next time GB is going to be giving 5.5 points.. Is not going to be in this season, that's basically a certainty), Cleveland +6.5 (This is a horrible line, I had it at +5 and I thought I was pushing it), Oakland +4.5 (Better team, but they stink on the East Coast, so this is probably going to end poorly, especially since the starting QB for the Raiders is still unrevealed for Sunday.), Tennessee +4.5 (Better team, but they are on the road in a tough environment, likely a bad play), and three favorites, NE -4.5 (Bad number to lay, but NE is far superior to the Dolphins.. And the other two teams in their division.), Denver -7 (Laying a TD is awful, but there is no way will the Colts be taking this game and it should be a blowout victory for the Broncos.), and Detroit -4 (Laying 4 here is also a bad idea, but it's a bad line, and I am high on Detroit while low on the Giants so I should also be getting some value there.).
Seven of sixteen games in play, obviously a fairly high percentage, at least for picking NFL spreads. Two or three games are probably technically bad plays, but I'm irrationally confident due to this being the first week there are real NFL games.
Results of Picks: GB ended up looking fairly bad, I don't think the process was all that bad, but it would have been better to stay away. Cleveland had some serious struggles, but, overall, they probably should have won their game and ended up semi-easily covering their line. If Oakland had decent QB play they probably would have won, this should have been a definite stay away. Tennessee fairly clearly showed that they were the superior team, as expected, overall though it's hard to tell if this should have been a stay away as well. I'm not certain what difficulties the Patriots were having, but they ended up playing quite poorly. Semi-consequentially, a stay away may have been called for.. But, it's close. Denver should have managed to cover easily, but they took their foot off the gas pedal, so the Colts nearly managed to take the spread. The Lions effectively proved that they are a far superior team to the Giants.
Week 1 Record: 3-3-1
Overall Record: 3-3-1
Picks for Week 2
Underdog picks: Falcons +5.5 (This is a joke.) Browns +6.5 (Almost a touchdown in bonus points in a fairly evenly matched game? I'll take it.) Lions +2.5 (I get points to have the far superior team? Horrible line.) Eagles +2.5 (Once again I get the better team and a couple points. Somewhat poor line.)
Favorite pick: Patriots -3.5 (Vikings are nowhere close to as good as they played last week, while the Patriots are going to play angry.)
Game line differential: Denver is actually a 13 point favorite, not 10 like I said. Seattle by 5.5, not 3.5. Gigantic difference: NO by 6, not 1 (Do people still not see that Browns are actually a competent football team?). Washington by 6, not 3.5.
Overall, these five picks are much better than last week's selections, partially because I'm taking more underdogs and because a few of the lines are even poorer than week one.
Results of Picks: So apparently it wasn't a joke that the Falcons were getting 5.5? Maybe the Falcons just leave their offense at home or something.. I still think I made the right pick though. The Browns/Saints game was indeed a very evenly matched game, the Saints were the slightly better team, but the Browns got the breaks and were certainly the right side. The Browns are a competent team? No way. The Lions/Panthers game was rather odd, the Lions leave their offense at home as well apparently, meanwhile the Panthers are somehow 2-0. Finally playing the better team getting points on the road was the right pick.. The Eagles at least came through with a late rally. On the favorites side of things, the Patriots dominated the AP-less Vikings.
Possibly I should just be picking the biggest line differentials that I have with Vegas or something, because the four value picks that I saw versus Vegas all won somewhat convincingly, except for the Broncos' game which was just a solid win. It was another semi-ugly week for me, especially considering that I'm doing pretty well in games that I'm not picking officially... So yeah, possibly I'll be able to turn this around.
Week 2 Record: 3-2
Overall Record: 6-5-1
Picks for Week 3
Underdog picks: Chargers +2.5 (Here I try the better team getting points on the road strategy once again..) Browns +1.5 (This is a decent line, I just think that the breaks will continue to go the Browns' way this week) Raiders +14.5 (I don't like picking this.. But I practically have to on principle, and because I slightly think that it is the right play since the Patriots aren't actually extremely good) KC +4.5 (I think I'll just call better team getting points on the road: BTPR) Steelers +3.5 (I don't really like the Steelers, but I don't understand how the Panthers could start 3-0, this will probably end up being correct, however it will also probably a bad play regardless) Bears +2.5 (BTPR, the Jests are the favorites? Really?)
Favorite pick: Cowboys -.5 (The Cowboys may not be a good team... But they're playing the Rams) 49ers -2.5 (I lay less than a FG to take the 49ers on the road against some QB such as Carson Palmer or Drew Stanton? Alrighty then.)
I made eight picks this week.. I should really prune that down, but once again I am somewhat confident in a fair number of these picks. Also I wanted to mention last year's SB matchup, the Seahawks and Broncos. I had the game at Seahawks -5.5 while Vegas has it at Seahawks -5. I think the Broncos are in a very tough spot since they just played the Chiefs in a demoralizing way last weekend while the Seahawks are coming off a double digit loss for the first time in an extremely long time, in terms of the NFL time-frame anyways, thus regression is very likely to kick in, but I would still lean towards a Broncos play since I think the teams are closer to evenly matched this year and therefore the Broncos are getting a point or two fewer than they should.
Week 3 Record: