Friday, September 7, 2012

AFC 2012 Preview

AFC East
New England 
1-0  The Patriots picked up Dont'a Hightower, Greg Salas, and Brandon Lloyd.  Adding even more firepower to an already potent offense.  If the Patriots go in a two TE set then they can have, Wes Welker, plus Aaron Hernandez on one side of the field, Brandon Lloyd and Rob Gronkowski on the other, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Dont'a Hightower, and Tom Brady in the backfield.  That is a matchup nightmare.   10-1, 3-2, 13-3.

New York  
0-2  Terrance Ganaway, and Stephen Hill.  The Jets number one WR is Santonio Holmes, who last year had all of 654 yards for receiving.  Their number 2 WR is probably Stephen Hill, a rookie who last year wasn't exactly catching a ton of balls for Georgia Tech.  So yeah, there's some truth to what Cromartie said about being the 2nd best WR on the Jets.
The criticisms about the Jets offense being putrid are, for right now, much to do about nothing.  I would say that the Jets have been running vanilla plays in the preseason, but that would be an insult to vanilla.  Imho, it's not a matter of IF Sanchez loses the starting gig, but WHEN he loses it.  I'll say Tebow gets decent playing time in the first few games, but doesn't fully take the starting roll until week 8.  (though hopefully it will be sooner than that)  4-3, 6-3, 10-6.

Buffalo 
0-3  Mario Williams, and Stephen Gilmore a CB who went to South Carolina.
The two headed running attack of Fred Jackson, who had the highest yards after contact last year, and CJ Spiller, who has great breakaway speed, is a fairly decent combo.  4-3, 4-5, 8-8.

Miami 
0-3  Ryan Tannehill, and Jonathan Martin a RT who played for Standford.  Miami's main offensive weapons right now,  are Ryan Tannehill, Brian Hartline, Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas, and Davone Bess.  The oldest person in that group of playmakers is Reggie Bush.  So an explosive group of players, but not exactly the most experienced group ever.  I like most of the disciplining done by Coach Philbin so far.  It's very likely I would have had Miami in the playoffs if David Garrard would have been healthy, but since Tannehill is starting..  3-7, 4-2, 7-9.

New England     13-3    Best record in the NFL,  Best Pats offense in the last decade? 
New York           10-6    First Wildcard, thanks to Tebow and the defense.
Buffalo                 8-8     Buffalo falls short, but continues improvement.
Miami                  7-9     Miami goes with the youth movement, and falls from contention.

AFC North
Steelers  
2-0  The Steelers picked up David DeCastro, an OG who attended Stanford, and Mike Adams, an OT who went to The Ohio State University, trying to shore up a somewhat shaky line.  I think the window is closing for the Steelers to be the division winner.  Rothelsburger and company get 'revenge' on the Broncos week one, but slog through the rest of their first 8 games going 4-4, they finish strongly however, 6-2, and capture the division with an overall record of 10-6.

Baltimore  
1-2  Benard Pierce, a RB who attended Temple, and Courtney Upshaw, who's from Alabama.  I have the Ravens as my fallout team, but I just remembered that they plan on running spread hurry-up offense with Flacco...  And I really like the spread hurry-up O, so you can take this record prediction with a grain of salt actually more like a bucketload of salt.   4-4, 5-3, 9-7.

Browns
1-2  The rookies the Browns picked up in the offseason that are likely to start week 1, Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, Josh Gordon, Mitchell Schwartz, John Hughes.  I wonder if any other NFL team can say that they are starting five rookies week 1..  About the only reason I think the Browns can finish with more than two wins is because of Brandon Weedon, who I think will prove to be the best and worst 29 year old rookie QB the league has ever seen.
1-7, 4-4, 5-11.

Bengals  
1-2  Dre Kirkpatrick, a rookie from Alabama, and Terence Newman.  I like Andy Dalton, but I think he and the Bengals take a step back.   2-5, 2-7, 4-12.

Steelers     10-6     4 Seed, last gasp by the Steelers?
Baltimore     9-7      Lose tie-breaker to SD,   Robust Rice runs, Flacco fails, Ravens reflect.
Cleveland     5-11     Weeden and D play well, the rest of the team, not so much.
Cincinnati     4-12    The Bengals have an injury plauged season and Coach Marvin Lewis is fired.

AFC South
Houston
1-0 in the preseason.  They picked up Randy Bullock, a kicker who attended Texas A&M.  Could this be a Colts-esq franchise, where Houston wins the division in seven of the next eight years?  I don't think so, but I do have the Texans winning it this year.  Houston was likely only a Matt Schaub injury away from going to the AFC Championship, so I think they are a good sleeper for the Superbowl.  I have Houston having a very simliar year to last year, starting 7-1, finishing 4-4, for an overall record of 11-5.

Indianapolis
1-2.  Coby Fleener, and Andrew Luck were the main rookies Indy picked up.  Indy also picked up 9 other players who are expected to be 1st string.  Nine.  Andrew Luck will get a majority of his starts indoor, which means I think he will actually exceed the lofty expectations for him, putting up, in the area of, almost 4,000 yards, 26 TD's, and 14 interceptions.  The Colts defense is going to be a struggle, to say the least, but I think that Luck can win some toss-up games.  I have the Colts as the breakout team for the AFC going 4-4, 3-5, for an overall of 7-9.  A little weak in total wins for a breakout team I know, but it does mean 5 more wins than last year.

Tennessee
I expect Justin Blackmon to be 
a top 5 WR within half a decade.
2-1.  Kendall Wright, a rookie who attended Baylor.  While I like Locker quite a bit, in the short term I think he will be a slight step down from Hasselback, and I think that will cost the Titans a couple of games.  5-5, 1-5, for an overall record of 6-10.

Jacksonville
1-2. The Jaguars acquired Justin Blackmon, Laurent Robinson, and Bryan Anger, a punter who attended California.  So the Jaguars passed on making a trade with the 3rd round pick to acquire Tebow, so that they could start Blaine Gabbart...?  C'mon man.  That said, I do think that Gabbert will improve slightly this year, but it won't show in the win column, and won't get the Jags out of the cellar, 1-7, 3-5, 4-12.

Houston        11-5    2nd best record in the AFC, should they be the Superbowl favorite?
Indianapolis     7-9     2nd best improvement in the NFL.
Tennessee      6-10   Locker improves, rebuilding year for Titans.
Jacksonville     4-12  Gabbart gives games, defense does duty, Blackmon blacks-out blockers, Jaguars jeered.  

AFC West
Denver Broncos  2-1. Jacob Tamme, Tracy Porter, a CB, Andre Caldwell, a WR, Justin Bannan, DT, Mike Adams, SS, and of course, Peyton Manning.    Last year the Broncos went 7-4 with Tebow as the starting QB.  Extending Tebow's starts to the entire season, in which the Broncos went 1-4, and being a little conservative, then the Broncs would have finished 10-6.  Not being conservative, I think Tebow and the Broncs would have been the better team in all but the GB game, which would have meant 11-5.  Also while the Broncos didn't have the leagues most injuries last year, they definitely weren't healthy either.  Knowson Moreno was out after week 10, Decker suffered an injury against the Steelers, Tebow suffered an injury against the Pats, and Von Miller playing with a broken thumb, etc.  

So anyways, that means that if Manning wants to exceed Tebow's win record last year, he has to win 11 or more games, and in the playoffs he either has to have a very competitive divisional round game, or advance to the AFC championship.   An extremely difficult task for an average QB, but probably not too tough for, imho, the best regular season QB of all time.  I think Manning will just barely be able to exceed last years Broncos regular season record, but the Broncos will fall short of the playoff record.  

I think that Manning will have lost a bit off his deep ball due to his injury, but Manning should still be able to throw the short routes almost to perfection.  On the downside for him though, he now has to play in the thin air and outdoors in Mile High Stadium instead of indoor at Lucas Oil Stadium.  It's kind of a pity that Manning had to bump Tebow out of town, but I think it worked out fairly well for Tebow and the Broncs anyways.  I expect Manning, Demarious Thomas, Jacob Tamme, etc., to struggle with cohesion and chemistry early against a tough schedule, but to gell and go on a nice winning streak late.  4-4, 7-1, 11-5.

San Diego 0-1.  Robert Meachem, and Melvin Ingram, a linebacker who attended South Carolina.  Interesting..  A preseason in which San Diego has been all but ignored.  I think the lack of attention does the Chargers some good, and that Phillip Rivers and company bounce back with enough to grab the 2nd wildcard.  6-2, 3-5, 9-7.

Oakland  1-1.  Miles Burris, who went to SDSU, and Philip Wheeler, a LB coming over from Indy.  I think Darren McFadden has the potential to be a top 5 running back, but I think Oakland needs to improve their defense to be a playoff team.  3-3, 2-6, 5-11.

Kansas City 1-2.  Dontari Poe, and Peyton Hillis.  Quite a few people are picking them to make the playoffs, either by the second wild card spot, or by winning the division...  And all of the optimism has driven me to be a pessimist about the Chiefs.  While I do like the Chiefs having a healthy Eric Berry, Matt Cassel, and lots of other players back, and I do probably have their win total too low..  One way or another I don't see the Chiefs making the playoffs.  4-8, 0-4, 4-12.

Denver          11-5      3 Seed, Manning injured?  Ha.  How does AFC West Champion for two years running sound?        
San Diego     9-7       2nd Wild Card, 2nd fiddle to Broncs again, but feels good to be in the playoffs.                
Oakland          5-11     A corner and OLB away from being a decent defense.  
Kansas City    4-12     Playoffs?  Playoffs?  You kidding me?  Playoffs?

Unless someone really wants to hear them, I don't think I'll bother saying my playoff predictions, since they happen to be a bit self-fulfilling.  Hopefully I didn't make too many mistakes, that's the end of my NFL preview/predictions, hope you enjoyed it.

NFC Preview 2012

Normally I like to go through the AFC first, but since the NFC won the Super Bowl again last year, I'll give it to them.  The first thing I mention for each team is their preseason record as determined by me.  It's largely pointless and I don't think I should have bothered doing it.  Second, I list the team's major acquisitions.  Third, I list random thoughts about the team.  And to finish up each team, I try and break off their record mid-season at an interesting point, say their record for the remaining games and then post my prediction for their overall record.  Then, once I'm done with a division I post the record in a typical division standings format, and give each team a somewhat accurate sentence summary, though sometimes I got carried away with alliteration.

NFC East
Philadelphia  0-1  Very little turnover for Philly, it looks like they picked up two LB's, DeMeco Ryans, and Mychal Kendricks, and also a punter.  Most people were a year early on the Eagles rising... including myself..  but this year I really think that the Eagles will soar..  I think Vick will stay healthy for around 14 games, the defense will band together and be a top 5 D, and Philly will capture the division.  5-1, 5-5, 10-6.

Dallas 2-0 Morris Claiborne, and Nate Livings a left-guard.  Romo is a top ten QB, DeMarco Murray is a top 10 RB, both lines are so-so, the WR's are good, the defense is decent.  I have Dallas beating the Giants twice, which enough to catapult the Cowboys into the playoffs.   5-4, 5-2, 10-6.

Eli has a decent year, but the Giants
can't handle the schedule this year.
New York 3-0  Very little turnover in Giants-land, they picked up Martellus Bennett, and David Wilson, a running-back from Virginia Tech.  I think the Giants will be a slightly better team than last years, but they'll have a bullseye on their chest and be taking each team's best shot this year.  3-5, 6-2, 9-7.

Washington 2-1   Main acquisitions, Pierre Garcon, and Robert Griffin the III.  I really like RG3 and would like to put Washington into the playoffs, but having to play @NO, vs ATL, @Pit, vs Bal, and then their two games against Dallas, the Eagles, and the Giants, I don't see it happening.  2-6, 4-4, 6-10.


Philadelphia      10-6       3 seed,  Dream team finally makes playoffs.  
Dallas                 10-6      2nd Wild Card Can Romo and the Cowboys end the playoff drought?
New York             9-7        Last year's champs, don't have enough to make a run this time.
Washington          6-10      Washington faces immense pressure due to economic difficulties a tough schedule.   

NFC South
Atlanta  3-0 Asante Samuel, CB.  Don't look now, but I don't think the Falcons defense is going to be awful this year.   Matt Ryan is a top 10 QB, Julio Jones averaged a whopping 7.8 yards YAC last year, and their CB's could be the best in the league.  4-2, 7-3, 11-5.


New Orleans  1-1 Ben Grubbs, a LG, and Curtis Lofton.  Even with all the mess that was New Orleans in the offseason, I only have the Saints Sinners missing the playoffs due to a tiebreaker, thanks to a loss against the Cowboys in week 16.  If he remains healthy, I think Drew Brees has a fair chance to break the all-time passing record, set by Dan Marino in 1984 scratch that, I mean set by Drew Brees last year.   So despite tying for the 7th best record in the NFL, the Sinners are left home come the playoffs.  4-3, 6-3, 10-6.

Tampa Bay 2-1 Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark, Doug Martin, who attended Boise, and 3 defensive players.  Tampa Bay has a new head coach, Greg Schiano, a Christian, a decent defensive coach, and most recently the head coach at Rutgers.  For some of the Bucs games, I forgot that Schiano was the head coach, so TBay was kind of all over the place.  The Buccaneers are my second breakout team for the NFC (not that I've mentioned my first, yet), and while they're a fairly young team, if they get some bounces of the football, then I think they can make .500.   6-3, 2-5, 8-8.

Carolina 1-0  Mike Tolbert, a FB, and Luke Kuechly, a LB who went to Boston College.  I expect Newton and the Panthers to take a small step forward this year, but end up with the same record.  3-3, 3-7, 6-10.

Atlanta               11-5        2nd in NFC, Ryan ridiculously ready,  Julio joyfully jumps, Atlanta accelerates attack.
New Orleans        10-6        Lose tie-breaker to Dallas, Bounty-Gate penalties take toll on D.    
Tampa Bay           8-8         2nd most improved team in the NFL, thanks to Josh Freeman, and Coach Schaino. 
Carolina                6-10       Newton nightly neutralizes, defense day-dreams, Carolina crumbles.

NFC North
Green Bay 1-0  Cedric Benson, at RB, and Jeff Saturday.  Two very good pickups for the Pack-attack.   Aaron Rodgers had around a 150.2 rating when throwing to Jordy Nelson in 2011.  Insane.  4-2, 8-2, 12-4.

Chicago
 1-2 Brandon Marshall, Michael Bush, and Alshon Jeffery.  I have the Bears sweeping the Packers head to head, but blowing their chance at the division title, when they lose to the Lions in week 17.   9-1, 2-3, 11-5.

Detroit 
2-1  Bill Bentley, CB, and Sean Jones, Defensive back.  Stafford had an average of 1 dropped pass on 3rd down each week.  So you would think that would have to improve.  Imho, the Lions have the best D-line in football, a top 15 QB, Megatron, running back.  But, even with all of that, I have a  slight step back for the Lions.  2-4, 6-4, 8-8.

Minnesota   1-1 Jerome Simpson, a WR, and Blair Walsh, a kicker.  I don't see a record amount of franchise losses this year, but the Vikings don't exactly burn the barn down either.  3-4, 2-7, 5-11.

Green Bay 12-4    1st in the AFC,  and 1st in America's hearts.
Chicago     11-5   1st Wildcard, Cutler cruises, Forte falls forward, Marvelous Marshall, Lovely Lovie.
Detroit         8-8     The Lions have injuries, and off-field problems, but still manage .500.
Minnesota    5-11   Ponder pontificates, Peterson patters, Harvin hurdles,  Vikings vanish.

NFC West
Saint Louis 1-2   The Rams main acquisitions were, Steve Smith (no not that Steve Smith), three offensive linemen, two WR's, a kicker and punter, SIX defensive players, and a partridge in a pear tree no wait, I guess that's it.. So as compared to week 17 of last season, it looks like the Lambs will be starting around 13 regulars from last year, while replacing 13 regulars.  A personnel starting turnover rate at 50%, and even higher once the season actually starts?  Ouch.  
Even with all of that, the Rams happen to be my breakout team of the year.  So on what am I basing a turnaround in St. Louis??  To be honest, I'm not positive.  It's mostly just a combination of Coach Jeff Fisher, Sam Bradford, and this.. A team has gone from worst to first every year since 2003.  So why can't it be the Rams, this year?  And I mean a reason different than, they are the Rams after-all.  4-2, 4-6, 8-8.


San Francisco 1-2 The only real movement I saw from SF, was two WR's, Randy Moss, and Mario Manningham.  So the 49er's didn't really lose anything on defense, and improved on offense.  I didn't buy into Coach Harbaugh last year, and got absolutely burned, but I'm going to try the same thing this year.  So I'm probably either following the maxim, If at first you don't succeed, then try, try, again,  or the definition of insanity: trying the same thing and expecting different results.  Anyways though..  I expect Alex Smith to fall back a bit this year, the ball not to bounce the 49er's way this year, and the 49er's somehow to not win the NFC West.  6-3, 2-5, 8-8.


Seattle 3-0  Russell Wilson, and Robert Turbin, a RB who went to Utah State .  If I somehow knew that Matt Flynn was going to get the majority of the starts this season, then I would probably have Seattle in the playoffs.  But I don't, and instead Seattle is starting Russell Wilson.  Russell Wilson the second coming of Andrew Luck, or I guess Matt Hasselbeck since it's Seattle.  Nothing against Wilson, I just don't know if he can be an Andy Dalton and lead his team to the playoffs.  Give Wilson a year or two, and I think he'll be a good starting QB.   1-7 with mostly Wilson at QB, (the second half of the season I have Flynn starting most of the games) 6-2, 7-9 overall so at least Coach Caroll is extremely consistent, going 7-9 three years in a row.

Arizona 1-3 Two offensive linemen, Adam Snyder, and Bobby Massie, and William Gay coming over from Pittsburgh.  If the Cards end up being the landing spot for David Garrard, then I like their chances of making some noise in the division.  I really dislike saying that Coach Whisenhunt, another good Christian head coach, will have a 4 win team, but with the apparent lack of a QB in Arizona, I think I have to do it.  1-6, 3-6, 4-12.

St. Louis             8-8       4th seed.   I mean c'mon it's possible, right?  Right?  Right.      
San Francisco      8-8       Bounced by the Rams, thanks to divisional record..       
Seattle                 7-9       Wilson is succeeded by Flynn, but too late in the season.               
Arizona                4-12     Skelton struggles, Kolb keels, out of options, Whisenhunt wails.          

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

AFC Review 2011

To me, if you can predict a team within a one game buffer, then that's pretty decent.  

AFC East

I predicted                                                              Actual results 
New England  12-4                                                  New England  13-3
Miami              8-8                                                  NY Jets           8-8
NY Jets           7-9                                                  Miami              6-10
Buffalo             5-11                                                Buffalo             6-10
Maybe a little lenient, but I’m going to give myself an A- for the AFC East.

Patriots-  Tom Brady and the Patriots had another great year making the playoffs, stomping the Broncos, barely beating the Ravens, and finishing it off with a toss-up SB loss to the Giants.  Since it was obviously the most recent game and Brady did have, at least for him, a sup-par game, some people are kind of ripping him and a couple even said he shouldn't be in the HOF.  Just wondering here but... Did they watch the same game?  I agree he was slightly off his game, and his receivers didn't always help him out, but even though the Patriots did lose (in a complete toss-up game) to a red hot Giants team, I don't really think less of Brady for it.  I mean he's made it to 5 SB's, has a 3-2 record in them, and will definitely be a HOF.  I’d give the Pats overall a solid A.

NY Jets- I was a little off the beaten path by predicting the Jets not to make the Playoffs, and it came through.  I had the Jets starting 4-4 and finishing 3-5, which is basically what happened.  Maybe it’s just me, but I thought they were extremely predictable, and I don’t understand why people think that Coach Ryan is a great coach..  As the season kind of proved he might, might be the 3rd best coach in the AFC East, much less the league.  I guess I’ll mostly base my grade off of my expectations so, C.

Miami- Miami basically had a tale of two seasons, starting 0-7 and finishing 6-3.  And before the season started I expected them to start slow 3-6 and finish somewhat strong with 5-2.  Even though they were slightly below .500 and finished with 9 losses; other then the first game against the Jets, I don't really think they were ever blown out.  So they might be a contender for 'surprise' team next year.  While they technically had a bad year and were worse than what I predicted, they at least had some things to build on, C+.

Buffalo- Buffalo also kind of had a tale of two seasons, starting a very respectable 5-2 but finishing 1-8.  And for future reference, I don’t think the Bills should extend their QB's contract until AFTER the season ends, just saying.  While they had some close games to be sure, they also had a ton of blowouts.  It would have been interesting to see Buffalo make the playoffs, but at least they were relevant for a while, B-.

I predicted                                                                                 Actual results
Jacksonville   10-6                                                                      Houston         10-6                  
Indianapolis   10-6                                                                      Tennessee      9-7
Houston        10-6                                                                      Jacksonville     5-11
Tennessee      7-9                                                                      Indianapolis     2-14

Since both the Colts and the Jags lost their starting QBs to injury I’ll give myself a little bit of a pass on this division, but still D.

Houston-  While I predicted Houston with the correct record, I didn't quite have them making the playoffs.  Once it became evident that Peyton Manning was out for the year and the Jags were throwing their chances, it was the Texans division to lose.  With an exception of 3 games, the Texans basically could have lost or won any individual game with a few different bounces of the ball.  They ended up in the playoffs, beat the Bengals convincingly, and lost a close game to the Ravens.  I kind of wonder what would have happened if Schaub and Leinart hadn't been injured, I think a trip to the SB wouldn't have been too crazy.  While it could have been much better, still a solid B+.

Tennessee- Tennessee had a pretty decent rebuilding year, and if they had just swept either the Jags or Colts (instead of splitting each series) they quite possibly could have made the playoffs.  This was one of my predictions for them 'They decided to pick up Hasselbeck to try and remain competitive'.  And no offense to Hasselbeck, (and actually I'm a fan of his) but I think Hasselbeck’s season was kind of the definition of trying to be competitive in a rebuilding year.  To me at least they remained relevant B+.

Jacksonville- So instead of being relevant and competitive in a weak division, the Jags decided to release David Garrard to start the season..  Just wondering.. But what in the world were they thinking?  While I admit David Garrard isn’t exactly Michael Vick, he is imho (atleast) a qb in the  top ½ of the league.  So the season was given to Blaine Gabbert, and while I don’t think he was quite as bad as most people think (and it is way too early to call him a bust), he struggled quite a bit and led the Jags to a 5-11 record, I think that is at least 4 games worse then if Garrard had started.  I guess the Jags can be this years Bengals, with the Management making, imho, unintelligent decisions, D-.

Colts-  Well, before the season started I said that if the Colts were to lose Manning they might be as bad as 4-12, but they lost Manning and their record turned out to be even worse, going 2-14.  Very disappointing season for the Colts, who are used to being the flipside of their 2-14 record. But, on the bright side for the Colts though, they tanked the right season since with the first pick in the draft, they can pick either Robert Griffin the 3rd or Andrew Luck, imho, they are both likely to be franchise QBs.  So at least when the Colts part ways with Peyton, they’ll likely have another franchise quarterback.  Hate to give it to a team and classy management that I like so much, but F. 

AFC North

I predicted                                                                                   Actual results
Baltimore    11-5                                                                          Baltimore      12-4
Pittsburgh    10-6                                                                          Pittsburgh     12-4
Cleveland     7-9                                                                           Cincinnati      9-7
Cincinnati     5-11                                                                         Cleveland      4-12
                                                                       
Fairly amazing Defenses in the AFC North, all of them in the top 10, but each teams record was kind of padded by facing the AFC South and NFC West.  Well if I had only predicted the top half of the division, then I did pretty well.  However, I don’t think it works that way so, C.

Baltimore played up to their potential.
Baltimore – The  prediction I had for Baltimore was, They're good enough to make the AFC championship, but not much more.”  And while I’ll give myself credit for that, they were actually just a dropped pass away from the Super Bowl.  Their defense was spectacular all year long once again, and if you take out their games against SD, whom they gave up 31 pts and the loss, Pitt 20 and a win, Bengals 24 pts and a win, Tennessee 26 and a loss, and Arizona, in which they gave up 27 but still won.  (And I know I took out quite a few games, but hey)  If you take out those games, then in the regular season the Ravens never gave up more the 17 points.  I think it’s pretty amazing to have 11 games and never give up more then 17.  If you take out the Sunday night blowout loss to SD, then they could have won every game they played this season.  The year could have been even better, but still a solid B+.  

Pittsburgh -  My prediction for the Steelers was that they would make the playoff with the first wild card.  I was slightly off again, since they actually made the playoffs with the first wild card.  In the regular season, if you take out their games against the Ravens, then their defense never gave up more then 20.  Which is even more amazing then what Baltimore's D# did.  14 games, and your offense would only have to score 21 and you would walk away the winner.  They gave up an average of only 14.2 ppg, best in the NFL.  Of course if you end up losing 2 of those games, it also says you don't have a very good offense.  C

Cincinnati - Andy Dalton did a great job managing games and their run game and defense did the rest.  Don't really have anything to say about them, but they definitely exceeded my expectations.  B+

Cleveland - Yeah, I was too high on Cleveland.  One bright side of their season was that their pass defense gave up the 2nd fewest yards..   Of course, the main reason they were ranked so highly was that their opponents were just running the ball and eating clock.  So Cleveland was ranked 30th in Run yards.  But,  for a real bright-side, Cleveland only gave up 19.2 ppg, good for 5th in the NFL.  Though their offense put up 13.6 ppg, good enough for 30th.  Colt McCoy didn't have very much to work with, but most of the blame probably falls on him.  They were a young, improving team, but they should have been better.  D-


Well I won't be getting my 2012 NFL preview out before the first game, but I plan on having it out before next Sunday. The NFL has a tradition of making the Super bowl winner play on opening night the following year, and in the last eight years the SB winner is 8-0.  But, I have the Cowboys bucking that trend tonight, winning  27-23.

AFC WEST

My predictions                                                                    Actual results
Denver          8-8                                                                 Denver           8-8
San Diego     8-8                                                                 San Diego      8-8
Oakland        6-10                                                                Oakland         8-8
Kansas City   5-11                                                                Kansas City    7-9  

Please raise your hand if you did not have Denver finishing as a lottery team.  And again raise your hand if you had the Broncos not finishing with a losing record.  And again if you didn't have the Denver Broncos finishing with a winning record.  And again if you had the Broncs reaching the playoffs.  And again if you had them tied with San Diego, but beating the Chargers do to tie-breakers.  And again if you had them winning the division.  And again if you had the Broncos winning the division with an 8-8 record..  HAHAHAHA.  That is hilariously insane.  I'm guessing not too many people can raise their hands for all of those.  So my prediction was probably either my sheer brilliance, or just plain 'luck'.   I think I'll lean towards a combination of the two, but certainly weighted towards the latter.  

The AFC West was probably the most volatile division in the NFL.  I would also say this was my most accurate division, I'll be a little lenient and say I get an A+.

Denver - Tebow.  Well they had a decent season this year, with plenty of ups and downs, and since they were my favorite team last year I'll quickly go through their schedule.  Most of this is based on my memory so I apologize if I get anything ludicrously wrong.  And also, up front, I think that the Broncos management made the position for Orton and Tebow unfair to both..
Management thought that Tebow surely
 could not be a decent NFL QB.

(The Broncos did not cave to popular sentiment to begin the season, and started Kyle Orton for the first 4 games.  And while I didn't agree with the move, I also understand that you can't just cave to the people every time.  So the Broncos lost by three to the Raiders, beat the Bengals by two, lost to the Titans by three, and suffered a thumping from the Packers 49-23.  

Then they played the Chargers, and after falling behind 23-10 at halftime they decided to put in Timmy Tebow for the second half.  He and the Broncs put up a big 0 in the third quarter, partially because they were being ultra conservative with him.  But in the 4th it was a different story.  After the Chargers hit a field goal, he led the Broncs on two touchdowns, and two 2 pt attempts - one being successful and the other a dropped pass by Brandon Lloyd.  After another Chargers field goal it was 29-24 SD Chargers, with 24 seconds remaining.  Somehow the Broncos end up past midfield with a chance to throw a Hail-Mary for the win.  After scrambling in the pocket and making a couple Chargers miss, Tebow threw up a prayer which was almost answered.)  (I ended up kind of rehashing this portion of the season in a little bit, but I'll leave these two paragraphs anyways.)

Coach McDaniels, Elway, and the rest of the Broncos organization draft Tebow in the first round with the 23 overall pick.  Tebow outplayed Orton and Quinn in the preseason, but they give the starting job to Orton.  While Tebow is given constrained use of the Wildcat throughout the season.  The Broncos proceed to give him very limited playing through their 4-12 season, until wk 15.
And while Tebow starts the Broncos play the Raiders, Chargers, and Texans.  Not powerhouses, but also definitely not laughing stocks.  He puts up very decent numbers, and keeps the Broncos competitive in each game, but is only able to post a 1-2 record.
Trying to be objective, I don’t really have a problem with any of that, though I might have started him around wk 13 instead.  (As a side note, I don’t understand why these three starts are often forgotten by people at ESPN, whatever..)

Year 2..  Elway declares him the starter heading into training camp. (I think this is how it went)   Ahead of Orton and Quinn.  But, at some points in training camp he is demoted to 4th string, behind the aforementioned and Adam Weber.  And once again in the preseason, Tebow outplayed both Orton and Quinn, though, to be honest, he and Weber played about evenly.  So again Orton gets the job.  And he proceeds to do about as well as the previous season.  After Orton led the Broncs to a 1-3 start against fair competition, management succumbs to pressure and lets Timmy Tebow start in the second half against the SD Chargers.  And for one quarter (the third) it looked that Elway could escape his predicament.  But then in the fourth quarter Tebow Time starts to happen, and almost leads the Broncos back from a 23-10 deficit, but Tebow's Hail Mary pass from the 30 falls incomplete.  But the harm had been done and the world had seen Tebow play, and he wasn’t quite as bad as they thought he would be.  The Broncos management shuddered because the theoretical genie was out of its lamp.  

So during the bye week the Broncos kind of tried to help Tebow by implementing a singleback/power I/Read option offense.  I say kind of tried to help, because I think Tebow needs to be put into a hurry-up shotgun spread offense.  And they also tried to teach him that an interception is worth negative 2 touchdowns and to always be cautious in his throws.  This resulted in Tebow often under throwing his receivers in the first 3 ½ quarters in the Miami game and many of his following games.  

Von Miller and the defense helped
 the Broncs win 7 of 8.
So for the first 3 ½ quarters of the Miami game Tebow struggled with rust, some bad misses that were completely his fault, an extremely flawed game plan, and being ridiculously cautious.  So for the first 50 minutes Tebow’s critics and the Broncos management rejoiced.  But Tebow Time showed up again, and the 0-5 Dolphins couldn’t stop it. After falling behind 15-0, Tebow led the Broncs to 13 unanswered points and a two pt conversion to get to OT.  Where in OT he and the Broncs proceeded to get into field goal range and Prater kicked a 50 yarder and the Broncos won 18-15.

I and others were not very impressed with Tebow’s performance, but he got out of Miami with a W so he was allowed to start against Detroit the following week.  (Side note, after facing the Broncos the Dolphins won 7 of their next 8) Not a lot to tell for the Lions game, Tebow was allowed to go hurry-up the first drive and led the Broncs to a dropped touchdown, so the Broncos settled for an early field goal.  After which the Lions proceed to outscore Denver 45-7, during which Tebow threw a pick 6.  Tebow Time, was Ndamakong Suhed.

Management and Teblow detractors celebrated once again.  And management gave him what I’m guessing they hoped would be his last start against the Raiders.  They wanted to see whether they could be rid of the Tebow phenomenon once and for all, and start building for a conventional quarterback.  But, Tebow, the running back committee of McGahee and Ball, the wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Erik Decker, and the defense proved Management wrong.  

Tebow put up 38 points and nearly 300 yards of offense, and Mcgahee rushed for over 100, while the D held the Raiders to 24 points and forced 2 turnovers.  Entering the 4th quarter it was tied 24-24, but during the fourth quarter the Broncs outscored the Raiders 14-0.  Elway and Tebow critics everywhere cringed, but surely it was just a one time event, right?

The Broncs were forced to play another road game against a divisional opponent the next week, when they played the Chiefs.  What followed was not the most exciting football game ever, but once again the Broncos won.  Tebow completed a whopping 2 of 7 for 93 yards and a TD.  Management, Coach Fox, the OC, or all three must have thought that a ground and pound style would be to Tebow’s best use….  

But even with a shotgun spread hurry-up offense, if you want to, then all you really need to accomplish is to keep the defense tired and off balance, and then if you wished to you could ground and pound to your hearts content.  Tebow critics and fans alike were unsure what to think, but both sides threw their arguments at one another, while being sure they were the ones who were in the right.  

The Broncos next game was against the NY Jets on a Thursday night.  Tebow was limited again by the game plan and struggled, but thankfully the Defense bailed out the Broncos with a pick 6 of Sanchez.  Which set up a thrilling finish, with Denver being down 13-10 needing a game tying field goal or GW touchdown with 2 minutes to go.  They drove down the field with ease against New Yorks 'acclaimed' defense, and Tebow ran 20 yards for the GW touchdown.  Pandemonium ensued, to say the least.  

More or less, the game was repeated on the road against the Chargers the next week.  In this game it almost appeared that neither side wanted to win, though that obviously wasn’t the case, and Prater kicked a 50 yarder with 20 seconds left in overtime.

Tebow critics continued to harp on the Broncos lack of offense and Tebow’s completion %, while the fans pointed to his 4th quarter numbers and the Broncos wins.  I would say that much of what Tebow faced was the middle of the league.  He didn’t have to face many Green Bay’s of the league, but he also didn’t get to play the St. Louis’s of the NFL.


I really dislike the term ‘believer’ being thrown around with regards to Tebow.  While I kind of understand their point, and they’re generally not actually saying he is believed in as some sort of god, but only believed in as a quarterback.  I use the term ‘believe’ very hesitantly..  Even as nice and great a guy as Tebow is, he is still a sinner and I’m sure he would be the first to tell you that.  I just kind of wonder if some people (an extreme minority to be sure) have Tebow as their Idol.  And even though (to reiterate) Tebow would point them to Christ, and they would likely at least kind of agree with that, at the same time they think a bit too ridiculously highly of Tebow.  And, despite the word of warning said by Tebow against doing so, they are in a sense worshiping him..  In other words..  They can’t see the forest, because of all the trees. 

Especially since Tebow is constantly pointing to Christ, I’m guessing that the number of people who have him as an Idol is particularly low.  However, even one person thinking of him exceptionally highly is one person too many.  American culture is an extremely celebrity driven society.  And Americans (like any other culture) often put their faith (trust, love, devotion, etc) into money, the government, fame, material things/houses/cars /etc, sex, power and even into other fallible humans.  Instead of trusting in some sort of higher being, they think that they are god and trust in themselves.  


This is the point where I basically stopped blogging on this post a few months ago, so since I'm short on time I'll try and make the next few games a bit quicker..  The next week Tebow and the Broncs won a shootout against the Vikings and Christian Ponder.
Then the Bears were Tebowed in OT, though the Bears kind of helped in their own defeat.  Either God was giving some divine intervention, or the Bears were just suffering from brain static.  Tebow is handcuffed through much of the game and the Broncs put up 0 pts through 3, but in the 4th they score a touchdown.  And then Marion Barber steps out of bounce with 1:00 to go, and the Broncs get the ball back.  And Tebow leads them down the field for a quick, long FG.  And in OT the Broncos win again for their third OT win in eight games.

The Patriots ended the Tebow Train the next week winning 41-23, Tebow played well in that game.  But the next two he struggled mightily, helping the Broncos lose 40-14 against the Bills, and 7-3 against the Chiefs to wrap-up the season.


The next week, the Broncos got to face the #1 defense in the league Pittsburgh..  And Tebow and company shredded them.  Tebow threw for, uhhh, 316 yards.. Huh. Weird.  That of course must  be a Biblical reference to Leviticus 3:16: "And the priest will burn them on the altar. It is a special gift of food, a pleasing aroma to theLord.  All the fat belongs to the Lord."  
Either that or John 3:16 "For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting."

Kidding aside, I do think that it is kind of curious that Tebow just 'happened' to throw for 316 yards.  And I do kind of wonder if God intervened.  

Tebow struggled against the Chiefs,
but the next week he threw for 316.

There were only two games (going week to week) that I really expected the Broncos to lose all season.. And both of them were against the Patriots.  When the Broncos faced the Pats the first time. Tebow outscored Brady for a quarter 17-10, but Brady and the Pats came roaring back and won by almost 3 touchdowns.
The second time Tebow played the Pats, he played with a rib injury and the Broncs got stomped, 45-10.

I would say Tebow was only ‘unleashed’ for more than just the last 5:00 minutes of the 4th quarter in the Oakland game, most of the Vikings game, the first half of the 1st New England game,  and most of the Steelers game.  And the Broncos record during those games?  3-1.  And the Broncs record with Tebow when they played ridiculously conservatarion?  5-4.  
Overall on the season I would give Tebow a B+.
  and while I admit that he’s based maybe 15% on a different standard, he is seriously imho a top 16 qb.  (And I’ll probably get to posting my rankings of the QBs vaguely soon.)  His running attack adds a dimension only a few players have in the game, and his leadership skills are also some the best in the league, his short passing I admit is, for now, barely below average, but to counter that, he has one of the best deep balls in the league. 



Some credit should go to the coaches who helped to put Tebow into the slowed down ground and pound offense, but I don't think it's what they should have done.  Also credit to the RB's for taking a pounding most of the year, the WR's for having to block for a greater amount then they would normally be accustomed to, the kicker/punter for having some great games, and of course the defense for holding opponents to less than 13 points 5 times.  
And not to rip the defense, but something that is kind of overlooked is that the defense also helped to give up, 49, 45, 45, 41, 40, and 32.  For those 6 games the points allowed statistic doe snot exactly show a 'great' defense.. Just sayin'.
All in all a very good job by Tim Tebow and the Broncs.  Tebow helped to lead a lottery-bound team to the Divisional round of the playoffs.  A-

San Diego - Now a slightly shorter review..  Phillip Rivers struggled, and the offense failed to make key plays.  So even though they had a top 10 offense, defense, and special teams, all of that only led to an 8-8 record.  They started better then I thought they would, but they continued their string of late season collapses.  And why Coach Turner is $till there, I have no idea.  If this grade was given entirely based on their talent then they should probably get at least a D-, however since it’s mostly based on my preseason estimates, C-.

Oakland – They had a fairly decent season (for them).  Carson Palmer got the starting QB reins mid-season, and he did a fairly good job.  C+

Kansas City – I understand that apparently management thinks that KC should be in the playoffs each year, and while that is obviously a good thing for management to wish for, it doesn’t mean they have to fire coach Todd Haley.  Maybe there were locker room issues or something, but I thought considering their injuries, the Chiefs actually had a decent season.  C+.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

NFC Review 2011

NFC East

Predicted results                                                                Actual results
Philadelphia              11-5                                                   N.Y. Giants            9-7    
N.Y. Giants              11-5                                                    Philadelphia           8-8           
Dallas                      10-6                                                    Dallas                    8-8                    
Washington               4-12                                                   Washington           5-11                     

For future reference, I think I'll wait a year on teams that are put together to be championship caliber teams, aka the Miami Heat, the Miami Marlins, and the Philadelphia Eagles.  I'll say I get a C- for this division.

N.Y. Giants
Manning had a 92.9 QB rating and
helped lead the Giants in a 4th
quarter comeback, 6 times.
Well, the Giants obviously had a successful season.  They started the season off well, then became very shaky mid season, but they had just enough near the end to beat the Cowboys twice.  Then they dominated Atlanta in the playoffs, beat Green Bay at their own game, and had a toss up game against the 49ers.  Then they faced the Pats in the SB and had another toss up game.  Idk about everyone else, but as soon as they beat the Falcons I thought they would win the SB.  Last season felt quite a bit like the 2007 Giants run.  
The Giants could have had a better regular season, they almost missed the playoffs, and their record is technically two games worse then what I predicted. So I kind of want to give them just an A or A-, however when you win the Super Bowl that pretty much has to be an automatic A+.

Dallas
I wonder how last years NFL would have been different if Romo had just connected with a wide open Miles Austin (I think it was) in their first game against the Giants.  Then who knows who the SB champ would be..  The Cowboys were close to the playoffs and if they had just swept Washington they probably would have won the division.  Not a complete disappointment, but it was yet another year in which the Cowboys didn’t win a playoff game, C-.

Philadelphia  
Well their team was probably the most blessed with talent this year, but their team chemistry/cohesiveness wasn’t there until the end of the year.  They had the 9th best pt differential in the NFL and at the end of the year they were the 3rd hottest team, but all of that only led to an 8-8 record, D.

Washington  They were a thorn in the side of some teams and were somewhat competitive, but overall it was not exactly a stellar year in Washington, in more than one regard,  D+.  

NFC North
My predictions                                                                         Actual results
Green Bay               11-5                                                         Green Bay      15-1
Minnesota               11-5                                                          Detroit            10-6 
Chicago                  10-6                                                          Chicago           8-8  
Detroit                     9-7                                                           Minnesota       3-13      

Injuries messed up my Chicago pick, GB I was just wrong on, don't get me started on Minnesota, and Detroit was a game luckier than I thought they would be.  All that adds up to  a D-.

Green Bay
A-Rodge and company were all
smiles in the regular season.
I thought it was somewhat interesting how people kind of ignored them throughout the year (relatively speaking) even though they were the defending champs..  And while I can kind of understand and agree with that, I thought it was a little extreme.  Just because GB is killing some teams doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t breakdown their game at least a little.  Maybe people were expecting them to repeat, Idk.  Imho, their schedule was actually pretty soft (Not that any schedule in the NFL is easy, or that that the Packers can just schedule tougher teams) and as soon as they lost to the Chiefs, I expected them to lose either their first game in the playoffs or lose in the NFC championship.   

And now for the Rust vs Rest argument.  I understand that there are advantages and disadvantages to both sides, but I personally think that the Packers definitely should not have rested their players.  (While the Steelers, should have rested their players vs the Browns)  (and imho, both of those decisions cost each team at least one playoff win)   Anyways.., unless the player is injured, I see no benefit to giving your players 3 weeks of rest.  Aaron Rodgers had not played since Christmas Eve before the Giants playoff game.  Also a shout out to Rodgers for breaking the all-time NFL QB rating record..  Unreal.  I didn’t think the Pack-attack could walk through their schedule so easily, but I was one of the few who thought they wouldn't do anything in the playoffs, so B-.

Detroit  
Even with some line injuries, they still had the best defensive line in the NFL.  Nice season by Detroit, I thought they’d be a year away from the playoffs, but they ended up getting the sixth seed and making it this year, hope Detroit enjoyed their playoff appearance. B+

Chicago
For those who did not think Jay Cutler was at least a fair quarterback I would say they were proven wrong.  Either that or Caleb Hanie isn’t very good.  (Okay apparently he’s probably not…  However, I don’t think Hanie is the worst QB in the league right now either.)  Chicago was cruising along at 7-3 and then Cutler went down, and they finished 1-5.   C-

Minnesota
A rebuilding season for the Vikings to say the least.  Throughout the season they perpetually got the lead, then gave it away in the second half.  They set a franchise record for losses, but at least, on the bright side, they have a couple decent looking prospects for QB, F+.

NFC South
My predictions                                                                      Actual Results
Atlanta                   12-4                                                        New Orleans     13-3        
New Orleans           11-5                                                       Atlanta              10-6  
Tampa Bay              6-10                                                      Carolina             6-10  
Carolina                   5-11                                                      Tampa Bay        4-12      
Brees threw for the most yards
in the NFL EVER.  

Two minor swaps and I would have been amazingly accurate.. But, I don't think that's allowed so, B.

New Orleans
Drew Brees and company marched through the regular season with only a few bumps.  B+

Atlanta
Matty Ice helped lead them to another playoff appearance.  B-

Carolina  
Cam Newton started out stronger then I expected, but by the end of the season he cooled down to about the level I expected him to play.  While the defense was somewhat horrendous, there is hope in Carolina B+

Tampa Bay
After their 2-1 start their season imploded.  I don’t really understand the last two years of the Bucs, one year they win 10 games and the next they’re a lottery pick.  I guess it's mostly just a combination of NFL parity and the young players on Tampa Bay.  D
NFC West
My predicted record                                                                        Actual record
St. Louis             7-9                                                                         San Francisco   13-3  
Seattle                6-10                                                                       Seattle                8-8
Arizona               5-11                                                                       Arizona               8-8
San Francisco     4-12                                                                       St. Louis             2-14 

When the best part of my NFC West prediction is Seattle finishing within two games...  I didn't do very well.  San Francisco finished 9 games ahead of where I projected them..  Ouch.  F-

Alex Smith can manage a game..  Who knew?
San Francisco
Well, Coach Harbaugh proved just about everyone wrong, definitely including myself.  To turn the 49ers from a middling team, to a toss up NFC championship game, is ridiculously impressive.  Alex Smith finally got his 2nd year of some continuity, and turned in some very decent performances.  Defense was extremely good.  I'll give them the only other A+ in the league.  

Arizona
I thought they kind of overachieved, and even without a consistent starter they ended up managing a decent 8-8 season.  They also won 5 overtime games.  Five.  That's insane.  B+

Seattle
Coach Pete Carroll led them to another 7-9 season, but since their division wasn’t quite as putrid this year, they sat home for the playoffs.  C-

St. Louis
Ha, so much for winning the division.  The Rams managed a grand total of 2 wins.  Even if the Rams had played 30 games, I don't know if they would have reached 7 wins.  F-

My overall AFC grade, I'll be a little lenient, A-, but on the other side in the NFC it was a relative disaster D+.
Overall NFL grade C+.  All of that and all I get is a C+.  Woo-hoo.