Monday, September 7, 2015

Regular Two Point Conversion Attempts?

Across the American professional football landscape teams should regularly attempt more two point conversions.  While teams should almost always attempt two point conversions regardless, I would say that there is no excuse for a team to forgo attempting a two point conversion when they are the first team to score.  By attempting a two point conversion after the first touchdown a team should produce roughly an extra (assuming that they would only achieve a 48% conversion success rate on two point attempts) four points per season.  While four points would not generally change many games, it could certainly provide the difference between a loss and an overtime win.  

As a quick example of the potential advantage (in a risk-averse environment), a team scores first and converts the two point attempt, conversely the opposing team will quite possibly need to attempt a two point attempt, thereby being put in a slight disadvantage.  If a team scores first and fails to convert the two point attempt, then the team will still very likely have a chance to remain in a neutral position if they convert a two point attempt on their second attempt.  I would guesstimate that the chance of having another touchdown in a random professional game to be 91% (but it obviously depends on the amount of time remaining, skills of the teams, etc.).

I expect most coaches to remain risk-averse and choose the relatively easy 33 yard extra point attempt, converting successfully at roughly a 95% rate for an additional one point, but that a coach like Chip Kelly will hopefully (finally) take advantage of the additional potential points that are being discounted and have a two point package with Tim Tebow and DeMarco Murray.  With such a package I would expect a team to have roughly an overall 64% success rate.  While there is a potential game theory flaw with my estimation (although I attempted to account for it), I think that it would be an accurate estimate given that rushing two point attempts convert at an rate of around 61% and Tebow and Murray would offer an above average rushing attack package. 

Presuming fifty touchdowns in a season, then implementing a 64% successful conversion rate for two point conversion attempts would result in approximately 64 points from two point conversions, while if a team would attempt to convert the 95% extra point, the team would only produce 48 points (rounded up).  Consequently, the Eagles should be able to add nearly two-thirds of a normal game of scoring to their season points total and give themselves a slight, tenable advantage over the rest of the NFL.  (Due to Tebow being released I would now estimate the Eagles' chances of successfully converting two point attempts to be at 58%, less of an advantage to be sure, but it would still be worth it for the Eagles to attempt two point conversions nearly every time they score a touchdown.)

No comments:

Post a Comment