Monday, September 7, 2015

NFL Preview for 2015


TeamOverall RecordPower Ranking1st Selection of Games2nd Selection of GamesRelative Recaps
Dolphins11-586-05-5Dolphins' defense dominates.
Patriots11-537-14-4Patriots pulverize first half of opposition.
Jets7-9222-55-4Jets jumbled but finally lack jargon.
Bills7-9215-32-6Bills belittle most important position.
Bengals9-7113-46-3Bengals all business in second half.
Steelers8-8166-42-4Steelers stumble at finish.
Browns7-9244-43-5Browns bilk opportunity to win division.
Ravens7-9195-42-5Ravens remain restless.
Texans9-7146-23-5Texans topple Colts' tradition.
Colts9-7105-54-2Colts' progress slows among consternation
Titans5-11292-73-4Titans trip in finishing games.
Jaguars3-13321-82-5Jaguars lack creativity and remain a joke.
Chargers11-595-36-2Chargers passing game is in its own class.
Broncos10-654-36-3Broncos bitter about blasé finish.
Chiefs7-9184-43-5Chiefs comply to complacency.
Raiders4-12311-63-6Raiders reflect on ridicule.
TeamOverall RecordPower Ranking1st Selection of Games2nd Selection of GamesRelative Recaps
Eagles10-626-14-5Eagles execute exclusive offense.
Cowboys8-8126-32-5Cowboys carelessly cast aside division.
Giants8-8234-54-3Giants grow but do not graduate.
Washington6-10262-74-3Washington weary of waste.
Packers10-646-24-4Packers positive despite plight.
Vikings9-7132-57-2Vikings voracious in second half.
Lions8-8154-34-5Lions languish in leisure.
Bears6-10253-43-6Bears begin building.
Falcons11-567-24-3Falcons flash in first half.
Saints8-8173-55-3Saints simulate good offense despite parts.
Buccaneers5-11302-63-5Buccaneers bewildered by bluster.
Panthers5-11281-64-5Panthers prepare to be petulant.
Rams11-574-27-3Rams revert to roaring 1999.
Seahawks11-515-46-1Seahawks sizzle yet still skid.
49ers9-7206-33-449ers flamboyant in floundering.
Cardinals5-11273-42-7Cardinals contemplate culture.

NFL
Some of the word content is lacking in my NFL preview for 2015 due to a lack of information/research and time constraints, but I did continue to produce an abundance of numbers for my NFL preview.  In the capsules for each team a grade of "C" does not necessarily mean an average team, it only relates to whether or not I think the team stayed roughly the same as compared to last season in regards to personnel.  Some of the additions may be off, due to finishing that part of the process a few weeks ago.

AFC
East
I expect the Dolphins to improve defensively and continue their offensive growth to capture the AFC East.  The Patriots will continue to beat the opposition, regardless of turnovers.  Finally, the Jets and Bills will both struggle due to lacking a decent player at the most important position in football.  Overall the AFC East is tied for the best division in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins
Additions: Jordan Cameron, Ndamukong Suh, C.J. Mosley
Losses: Daniel Thomas, Charles Clay, Mike Wallace, Corland Finnegan
Offseason Grade: B

New England Patriots
Additions: Matt Flynn, Kevin Dorsey, Scott Chandler, Robert McClain, Bradley Fletcher
Losses: Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, Darrelle Revis, Vince Wilfork
C-

New York Jets
Additions: Stevan Ridley, Kellen Davis, Joe Mays, Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Brandon Marshall, Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVier Posey, Zac Stacy, Todd Bowles HC, Chan Gailey OC
Losses: Kyle Wilson, Percy Harvin, Rex Ryan HC
B+

Buffalo Bills
Additions: Tyrod Taylor, Percy Harvin, Richie Incognito, LeSean McCoy, Rex Ryan HC
Losses: C.J. Spiller, Kiko Alonso
B-

North
I expect a fair level of consistency from each team in the AFC North.  No division winner would surprise me, but I would expect that the Bengals are the most likely division winners, while the remaining three teams are all quite competitive and have an opportunity to make the playoffs if they take advantage of the chances they are given.  I think of the AFC North as an above average division, yet somehow the teams ended up with an overall average below .500.

Cincinnati Bengals
Additions: Denarius Moore, A.J. Hawk
Losses: Taylor Mays, Terence Newman
C

Pittsburgh Steelers
Additions: Tajh Boyd, Devin Gardner
Losses: Lance Moore, Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor
C

Cleveland Browns
Additions: Josh McCown, Terrelle Pryor, Dwayne Bowe
Losses: Brian Hoyer, Miles Austin, Jordan Cameron
C-

Baltimore Ravens
Additions: Matt Schaub, Kendrick Lewis, Marc Trestman OC
Losses: Tyrod Tayor, Owen Daniels, Torrey Smith, Haloti Ngata, Benard Pierce, Gary Kubiak OC
D+

South
I expect Hoyer and the Texans to pull out a few close games, the Colts to finally lose some of their close games, and the Titans and Jaguars to be mired in complacency. I actually would put the Colts as the favorite to win the division, but I wanted to change up the Indianapolis dynasty that has occurred in this division over the years.  I fail to understand why some teams fail to experiment at quarterback, the Jaguars could easily take a look at Tim Tebow, a quarterback in the CFL, Colt McCoy, etc., yet instead they decide to remain with 'projects' at quarterback who do not typically help them to win games. If the situation is awful, then think outside the box, think outside the conventional wisdom...  While the Colts and Texans are both semi-decent teams, the Titans and Jaguars drag this division down to the level of worst in the NFL.

Houston Texans
Additions: Brian Hoyer, Cecil Shorts, Nate Washington, Vince Wilfork, Rahim Moore
Losses: Kendrick Lewis, Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVier Posey, Andre Johnson, D.J. Swearinger
C-

Indianapolis Colts
Additions: Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, Trent Cole
Losses: Hakeem Nicks, Josh Gordy, Trent Richardson, LaRon Landry
C+

Tennessee Titans
Additions: Hakeem Nicks, Harry Douglas, Anthony Fasano, Perrish Cox
Losses: Nate Washington, Kris Durham, Brandon Ghee, Jake Locker, Lache Seastrunk, Michael Oher
C+

Jacksonville Jaguars
Additions: Benard Pierce, Julius Thomas, Sergio Brown
Losses: Cecil Shorts, Alan Ball
B-

West
I have a high opinion of Mike McCoy, consequently I gave the Chargers both wins over the Broncos and the resulting division crown.  Peyton Manning is 39 years old, so it could be expected that it is only a matter of time until his play deteriorates, to a certain level anyways.  Replacing an average coach with a poor coach is always a great idea, so good luck to the Broncos on that decision.  I probably underrated the Chiefs, but when I W & L'd the schedule the wins failed to appear for them.  I have a slightly above average view of this division, but the overall record for it is simply .500.

San Diego Chargers
Additions: Stevie Johnson, Austin Pettis, Jacoby Jones, Patrick Robinson
Losses: Ryan Matthews, Edie Royal, Reggie Walker
C+

Denver Broncos
Additions: Owen Daniels, Antonio Smith, Gary Kubiak HC (Why?)
Losses: Julius Thomas, Jacob Tamme, Orlando Franklin, John Fox HC
D+

Kansas City Chiefs
Additions: Jeremy Maclin, Tyvon Branch
Losses: Chris Owens, Kurt Coleman, Dwayne Bowe, Anthony Fasano
B-

Oakland Raiders
Additions: Roy Helu, Trent Richardson, Michael Crabtree, Rodney Hudson, Malcolm Smith, Curtis Lofton, Jack Del Rio HC, Bill Musgrave OC (Great hire)
Losses: Darren McFadden, Vincent Brown, Pat Sims, Antonio Smith, LaMarr Woodley, Matt Schaub, Dennis Allen/Tony Sparano HC
B-

NFC
East
I was disappointed that Tim Tebow did not work out in Philadelphia, but the Eagles will be fine without him.  I expect the Cowboys to take a bit of a step back and to potentially lose the turnover battle this year.  I think the Giants are supposed to be Super Bowl bound this year, according to the timeline Coach Coughlin has followed anyways, but I rather doubt it will happen..  Washington has the potential to at least be a .500 team, but turnovers from their quartabcks will likely heavily impact their season's win-loss record.
Philadelphia Eagles
Additions: TIM TEBOW, DeMarco Murray, Miles Austin, Brad Jones, Sam Bradford, Kiko Alonso
Losses: Chris Polk, Jeremy Maclin, Bradley Fletcher, Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, Trent Cole
B-

Dallas Cowboys
Additions: Darren McFadden, Lache Seastrunk
Losses: DeMarco Murray, Bruce Carter, Sterling Moore
C-

New York Giants
Additions: Shane Vereen, Dwayne Harris, Marshall Newhouse, Josh Gordy
Losses: Zack Bowman, Antrel Rolle, Peyton Hillis, Mathias Kiwanuka
C
Washington Redskins
Additions: Chris Culliver, Jeron Johnson, Joe Berry DC
Losses: Roy Helu, Jarvis Jenkins, Tracy Porter
C+

North
Despite the loss of Jordy Nelson, I still see the Packers being the class of the AFC North.  The Vikings should take a small step forward this year with AP and Bridgewater.  The Lions suffered a somewhat miserable offseason, so that combined with regression from last year means they should fall a bit. The Bears are a confusing team to me.. Overall, I see them being somewhat consistent, as compared to last season.

Green Bay Packers
Additions:
Losses: Matt Flynn, Jarrett Boykin, Tramon Williams, A.J. Hawk, Kevin Dorsey
D+

Minnesota Vikings
Additions: Mike Kafka, Terence Newman, Mike Wallace
Losses: Jasper Brinkley, Greg Jennings
C+

Detroit Lions
Additions: Garrett Gilbert, Lance Moore, Greg Salas, Taylor Mays, Haloti Ngata
Losses: Kellen Davis, Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, C.J. Mosley, Reggie Bush
D

Chicago Bears
Additions: Jacquizz Rodgers, Eddie Royal, Tracy Porter, John Fox HC
Losses: Josh Morgan, Brandon Marshall, Marc Trestman HC
D+

South
Many signs point to the Falcons improving this season, some of the main ones being the hiring of Coach Dan Quinn, regression from last season, and the signing of Jacob Tamme.  The Saints lack playmakers, otherwise they would compete for a wildcard spot.  The Buccaneers had a bit of a gutting to their roster in the offseason, but more importantly they still need to find a solution at quarterback.  Finally, the Panthers also need to acquire some sort of decent offensive playmakers.

Atlanta Falcons
Additions: Jacob Tamme, Adrian Clayborn, Justin Durant, Dan Quinn HC (Good)
Losses: Steven Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers
B-

New Orleans Saints
Additions: C.J. Spiller, Josh Morgan, Brandon Browner
Losses: Patrick Robinson, Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, Pierre Thomas, Curtis Lofton
C-

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Additions: Bruce Carter, Sterling Moore, D.J. Swearinger, Dirk Koetter OC
Losses: Adrian Clayborn, Dane Fletcher, Mike Kafka, Etc.
C+

Carolina Panthers
Additions: Ted Ginn, Charles Tillman
Losses: Greg Hardy, DeAngelo Williams
C+

West
The Rams have not even managed to be an average team for many seasons, but I expect that they can overcome the difficulties and culture shock and capture the division.  The Seahawks are the best team in the NFL, in my opinion, but they face a fairly tough schedule once again.  The 49ers should be better than most expect.  Losing Harbaugh was a gigantic loss, but the rest of the offseason went extremely well for the 49ers.  Regression should finally catch up to the Cardinals this season. 

St. Louis Rams
Additions: Nick Fairley, Akeem Ayers, Case Keenum, Nick Foles
Losses: Alex Carrington, Sam Bradford, Zac Stacy, Jake Long, Brian Schottenheimer OC
B

Seattle Seahawks
Additions: Cary Williams, Will Blackmon
Losses: Bryan Walters, James Carpenter, Malcolm Smith, Dan Quinn DC
C-

San Francisco 49ers
Additions: Reggie Bush, Torrey Smith, Darnell Dockett, Phillip Wheeler, Jim Tomsula HC (Odd..)
Losses: Frank Gore, Josh Johnson, Mike Iupati, Michael Crabtree, Chris Culliver, Stevie Johnson, Jim Harbaugh HC
C-

Arizona Cardinals
Additions: Chandler Harnish, Sean Weatherspoon, LaMarr Woodley
Losses: Antonio Cromartie, Ted Ginn
C


Tebow at QBNew Power RankingChange in PRPredicted RecordLikely Seed
Patriots8-510-65
Bills81311-52 or 3
Browns131110-64 or 5
Jaguars181411-52
Titans161311-52
Raiders17149-76
Washington13139-76 or none
Cardinals111610-66
.
How to make the playoffs?PWRAFC TeamsPWRNFC Teams
Only need consistencyTop CaliberDolphins, Patriots, Chargers, BroncosTop CaliberEagles, Packers, Falcons, Rams, Seahawks
Half a standard deviation of better play.GoodBengals, Texans, ColtsGoodCowboys, Vikings
Play close to potential and get a few breaks.AverageJets, Bills, Steelers, Browns, Ravens, ChiefsAverageGiants, Lions, Saints, 49ers
Complete play and every favorable chance.PushoversTitans, Jaguars, RaidersPushoversWashington, Bears, Buccaneers, Panthers, Cardinals
.

First to Worst
Can HappenPanthers
Will Not HappenPatriots, Bengals, Colts, Broncos
Packers, Eagles, Seahawks
Worst to First
Can HappenJets, Browns, Washington
Bears, Rams
Will Not HappenJaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers
.
Poor Preseason Playoff Prediction
3 Texans1 Dolphins1 Dolphins2 Chargers
6 Broncos6 Broncos2 Chargers
4 Bengals2 Chargers
5 Patriots4 Bengals
3 Eagles1 Falcons1 Falcons1 Falcons
6 Vikings5 Seahawks3 Eagles
4 Packers2 Rams
5 Seahawks3 Eagles
1 Falcons


TeamChange in RecordPlayoff %Top 2 RSTop 4 PTop 2 PSBASBWFive B & W
Dolphins30.70.30.70.30.20.1B
Patriots-10.80.40.80.50.20.1
Jets30.2
Bills-20.30.1
Bengals-2.50.40.10.20.20.1
Steelers-30.30.1
Browns-30.2
Ravens00.40.10.10.1
Texans00.40.10.2
Colts-20.60.30.40.10.10.1
Titans30.1W
Jaguars00.1W
Chargers20.50.30.50.40.20.1B
Broncos-20.70.40.70.40.20.1
Chiefs-20.30.2
Raiders10.0W
TeamChange in RecordPlayoff %Top 2 RSTop 4 PTop 2 PSBASBWFive B & W
Eagles00.70.50.80.40.20.1B
Cowboys-40.50.10.30.20.1
Giants20.30.1
Washington20.1
Packers-20.60.30.60.40.20.1
Vikings20.40.2
Lions-30.30.10.1
Bears10.2
Falcons50.60.30.50.30.20.1B
Saints10.40.1
Buccaneers30.1W
Panthers-2.50.2W
Rams50.50.20.40.20.10.1B
Seahawks-10.70.40.60.40.20.1
49ers10.30.10.20.1
Cardinals-60.10.1
.
.

TeamProjLineDiffAdj %DiffCombinedO/U"Locks"
Dolphins11929.70.71.3O
Patriots1111011.50.50.3
Jets77.5-0.56.8-0.7-0.6
Bills78.5-1.57.3-1.2-1.3UU
Bengals98.50.58.70.20.4
Steelers88.5-0.57.6-0.9-0.7
Browns76.50.56.50.00.2
Ravens79.5-2.57.1-2.4-2.5UU
Texans98.50.58.70.20.4
Colts910.5-1.58.9-1.6-1.6UU
Titans55.5-0.56.20.70.1
Jaguars35.5-2.54.6-0.9-1.7(U)
Chargers118.52.59.00.51.5OO
Broncos1010.5-0.510.80.3-0.1
Chiefs78.5-1.57.2-1.3-1.4(U)
Raiders46-25.0-1.0-1.5UU
TeamProjLineDiffAdj %DiffCombinedO/U"Locks"
Eagles109.50.510.00.50.5
Cowboys89.5-1.59.0-0.5-1.0U
Giants8806.8-1.2-0.6
Washington66.5-0.56.60.1-0.2
Packers1011-110.5-0.5-0.8U
Vikings97.51.57.50.00.7O
Lions88.5-0.58.1-0.4-0.5
Bears66.5-0.56.60.1-0.2
Falcons118.52.510.31.82.2OO
Saints88.5-0.58.90.4-0.1
Buccaneers56-15.1-0.9-0.9(U)
Panthers58-36.3-1.7-2.3UU
Rams11838.90.91.9OO
Seahawks1111010.8-0.2-0.1
49ers96.52.58.92.42.4OO
Cardinals58.5-3.56.2-2.3-2.9UU
.
Quick college football Over/Unders: 
North Carolina, Minnesota, Arizona State, Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU over.
Clemson, Rutgers, Washington State, Colorado, and Utah under.

Thanks for reading, God bless.