Western Conference Playoff Preview 2012

I did actually write this all the day of the playoffs, I'm just getting around to editing and posting it now.  

1 San Antonio  8 Utah

Many people have written off the Spurs just because of last year and maybe I will be wrong and they will flame out insanely early again.  But, Tony Parker is having maybe his best season as a pro, Ginobli is doing his thing, Duncan is still being good, and the bench has been extremely good.  It has been said that, ‘a deep bench won’t matter in the playoffs.’  Why not?  Yes, it won’t be quite as important as the regular season, but I still think they will use their bench fairly heavily in the playoffs.  This is not the Spurs of a couple years.  Their forte is no longer defense.  It’s actually now more of a run and gun offense.  So they will need their bench.

I think it’s fairly impressive that Utah made the playoffs in front of Phoenix and Houston.  A young improving team.  They’re 4^th in the league in scoring and they have been great at home as usual.

Sorry, for the lack of love for the Jazz, but in my lone sweep of the playoffs I have the Spurs in 4.

2 Oklahoma City  7 Dallas

The Thunder happen to be my favorite team.  And, by complete coincidence, they also happen to have (probably) my favorite NBA player, Kevin Durant.  I think it’s awesome that after nearly every point he scores, he’ll point to heaven, or really the roof since it kind of gets in the way, Durant points to heaven, or in another words God to give Him the glory.  In post game interviews and press conferences, he tends to be fairly liberal in his praising of Christ/God.  Doing it at most opportunities.  He’s not quite as out spoken on Christianity as Tebow is, but it is still quite obvious that he is a Christian.  If I were to ever be blessed with a situation vaguely similar to Tebow or Durant I would probably lean towards Durant’s approach.  Another aside, but I also think it’s cool that he still wears a backpack to most, or possibly all, of his press conferences.  

This is a nice opening 2 vs 7 game.  Instead of an easy New York type team, OKC gets the defending champions.  I personally would prefer that the Thunder would be facing any other Western team not named San Antonio.  I haven’t analyzed many NBA games this year (not that I have in the past either), but one of them that I have analyzed was the end of season LA vs OKC game.  And it was definitely a great game with plenty of drama and, uh, flying elbows..  Most of my analyzing tends to be fairly simple and straightforward (though it can be a bit subjective).  Kind of a like a simplified and subjective synergy.  I was grading the players shot attempts as quality or non-quality.  And one game is technically a ridiculously small sample size, but anyways here is my analysis.

Ibaka has really improved his offense from last year, and that could possibly be the difference for OKC in the playoffs this year.  Durant and Westbrook were both very much off their games (a combined 10-45), but while Durant was attempting quality shots, 16 quality and 9 non quality, Westbrook was heavily favoring the non quality shots, 4 quality and 13 non quality.  [To account for the discrepancy of shots..  I missed a small part of the 3^rd quarter, and I also don’t chart certain shots]  So it’s an extremely small sample size, I know, but KD’s quality shots were a poor 31% and his nq shots were 11%.  While Westbrook was 50% on q (2 out of 4), and a sizzling 0% on nq (Zero for thirteen). 

Part of the Thunder’s game is to push the pace, but if they would be a little more patient and pass up the contested 10 footer 7 seconds into the shot clock for the open 13 footer 17 seconds into the shot clock and if they would do just improve their patience in getting a quality shot, then I think they would be able to beat in 5 games or less 10 of the other 15 teams in the playoffs. 

Harden was taking about an even number of quality and non quality shots, yet hitting about the same of each.  Some of the shots that he made were extremely difficult and fairly amazing.  Even though he tends to come off the bench, he is probably at least the 3^rd most important player on the Thunder roster.  And, imho, the Thunder bench (including Harden) is probably tied for the best bench in the NBA. 

One thing I will say for Westbrook and the rest of the team is that they do an excellent job at the free throw line.  To give some perspective I’ll give the Lakers numbers first.  LAL was 22-2 (92%) on quality free throw attempts and 4-11 (27%) on NQ FTA, for a total of 67%.  While the Thunder were 19-1 (95%) on quality FTA and, amazingly enough, they did not attempt a single non quality FT.  And while this doesn’t have to do with anything here, I think that, while he won’t do a lot on the court, Derek Fisher will have a great impact on the Thunder locker room in the playoffs.

The defending champs are coming into the playoffs as underdogs.  I thought their loss of J.J. Barea was a fairly big loss.  Nowitizki is still hitting his one legged-turn around-fade away jump shot, and Terry is providing a lift off the bench.  But the Mavs are not really generating enough offense right now.

I hate to say it, but this would probably be the most likely 1 or 2 seed upset in the first round.  I’ll take OKC in 6.

3 Los Angeles 6 Denver

This might be the only pair of teams that I’m glad are playing each other.

I think that all of the Western conference series should be fairly compelling and competitive, except for SA-Utah (though it could still possibly have some close games, just not a close series).  One minute I convince myself to pick the Lakers and the next I’m thinking that the Nuggets will win. 

I didn’t take a ton from my analysis for the Lakers, partially because Kobe was taking his usual 20+ shots a game.  I think the best strategy for LAL would be if Kobe defers through 3 quarters and then tries to take over the fourth.  If they were to follow that, I think they could meet OKC in the Conf finals, but they almost certainly aren’t going to do that so I have them on upset alert. 

While his form was usually fairly bad, the person taking the highest amount of high quality shots (other than Jordan Hill) imo was Ron Artest.  But after a dunk on Durant, Artest threw an elbow at Harden.  And while I don’t think it was premeditated or anything like that I do think that the elbow thrown at Harden was definitely intentional and malicious.  I actually think that the Lakers really would not miss Artest very much if he ever leaves, but a sudden departure of any starting player, this close to playoff time is almost certainly going to have a detrimental affect on the Lakers.  

The next highest quality shots were by Sessions, and I thought he did a decent job of attacking the hoop.  Bynum and Gasol came up next with a decent 2-1 ratio of quality to non quality attempt.  But Bynum sat the fourth, and neither player was fed the ball enough. 

Last on the list was, oddly enough, Kobe Bryant.  While he took and made some very tough and impressive contested shots, unless he was tired, he really should have just tried to take Sefolosha almost every time.  On quality looks he was 50%, and on non quality looks he was 28% (5-13).  One of the best players of all time, and still the best game closer.  But, imho, he needs to defer if he wants to have a chance at a 6^th ring.

Denver has Javale Mcgee and stuff.  And on a serious note I have been a Ty Lawson fan for about two years, and I think he is probably a top 5 PG.

 So yeah, this is more of an anti LA pick then a pro Denver pick, but in the end I think that Artest’s disgraceful elbow throw will cost the Lakers the series.  Denver in 7.

4 Memphis – 5 LAC 

The Clippers have CP3, probably the best PGin the game, while Griffin has good name ID and amazing dunks he is not yet the star and all-around player that his popularity should warrant.

The Grizzlies will be looking to unleash their tenacity of last year’s playoffs.  If they succeed in doing that against LAC, it is quite possible they could take it in 5.  As it is though, I will take the Grizzlies in an entertaining 6.