Wednesday, August 29, 2012

NFL O/U's and Chances of Making the Playoffs 2012

I still have yet to finish my review of last season, much less post previews/predictions for this year, so I should probably get on that, considering the NFL regular season starts next Wednesday.  Thankfully I do have a good portion of my review done and a few miscellaneous posts, but sadly I still have nothing written preview-wise yet.

O/U.  Over/Under.   Playoff %'s.  Meaning chances of making the playoffs, with 1 being a relative certainty that they will make the playoffs, 0.5 meaning they have about a 50% chance of making the playoffs,  and 0 being very unlikely to make the playoffs.  SB A.  SB W.  Super Bowl appearance %, and Super Bowl Winner %.  Same basic percentage principle applies here.

I don't really like having two teams have a repeat appearance in the SB, which is part of the reason why the Patriots and Giants numbers are so low.  And it is very hard to repeat, plus I just don't really think that either team will do it this year.

I was having some problems moving the NFC marker up, so I'll just leave it where it is.  So, obviously, the NFC should actually start above the NY Giants instead of right above New Orleans.

AFC                 
Wins             
O/U
Playoff %'s            
SB A           
SB W
NE Pats
12.4
12.5
1
0.1

NY Jets
9.8
9                             
0.5
0.2
0.1
Miami
7.9
8
0.1


Buffalo
5.8
6
0.1








Houston
9.9
10.5
1
0.2
0.2
Tennessee
7.5
7.5
0.1


Indy
5.6
5
0.1


Jacksonville
3.7
4
0








Pittsburgh
10.7
10.5
0.7
0.1

Baltimore
10.6
10.5
0.8
0.2
0.2
Cincy
6.6
7
0.1


Cleveland
4.1
5
0








Denver
10.5
10.5
0.9
0.1
0.1
San Diego
9.8
10
0.5
0.1

Oakland
6.8
7
0.1


KC
4.1
6
0








NY Giants
9.8
9
0.5
0.1

Philly
9
9.5
0.6
0.2
0.1
Dallas
9
9.5
0.6
0.1
0.1
Washington
5.5
6
0.1








NFC
Wins
O/U
Playoff %'s
SB A
SB W
New Orleans
10.7
10.5
0.9
0.1
0.1
Atlanta
9.5
10
0.5
0.1

Carolina
6.4
7
0.1


Tampa Bay
4.7
5
0








Green Bay
12.7
13
1
0.2
0.1
Chicago
10
9.5
0.5
0.1

Detroit
9.4
8.5
0.2


Minnesota
6
5
0








San Fran
9.8
10.5
0.9
0.1

Seattle
6.7
7.5
0.1


Arizona
5.4
7
0


St. Louis
5.1
4.5
0




I originally made my O/U numbers a few months ago before the draft, but I'm taking the Vegas lines from the present, so I suppose I'm at a slight disadvantage. 
     
I'm just subtracting their O/U number from my O/U number.      My O/U was a combination of what I thought the O/U should be and what I thought Vegas would have it at, though my O/U was weighted slightly towards me.
                         
AFC
NE Pats =                  
NY Jets 0.5
Miami+1
Buffalo-1.5

Houston+1
Tennessee =
Indy-0.5
Jacksonville-1

Pittsburgh.5
Baltimore.5
Cincinnati-1
Cleveland =

Denver+2
San Diego+1
Oakland-.5
KC-2

NFC
NY Giants =
Philly-0.5
Dallas+1
Washington-0.5

New Orleans+1
Atlanta+1
Carolina-.5
Tampa Bay-.5

Green Bay+1.5
Chicago =
Detroit-0.5
Minnesota-1

San Fran +1
Seattle =
Arizona.5
St. Louis -1.5

Not a whole lot that I can glean from that.  Other than that my O/U numbers were surprisingly accurate, which is pretty cool.  My numbers would also say that Denver, San Diego, Dallas, New Orleans, Atlanta, Miami, Houston, San Francisco, and Green Bay are underrated teams, while Buffalo, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minnesota, and St. Louis are overrated teams.
I would probably agree with all of those except for Miami, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Jacksonville.


Favored in: Basically just means that, from a before preseason outlook, I think that Baltimore would be a favorite in 12 games, a push-em type game in three games, and an underdog in one game.

AFC
Favored in
Minimum W
Toss up Games
Minimum L
NE Pats
14-1-1
11
3
2
NY Jets
10-1-5
8
4
4
Miami
6-3-6
5
7
4
Buffalo
2-4-10
5
5
6





Houston
9-2-5
8
4
4
Tennessee
6-3-6
4
6
6
Indy
3-3-10
3
6
7
Jacksonville
0-1-15
1
6
9





Pittsburgh
14-0-2
7
6
3
Baltimore
12-3-1
9
5
2
Cincy
5-2-9
4
5
7
Cleveland
1-2-13
3
7
6





Denver
11-1-4
8
5
3
San Diego
11-1-4
7
5
4
Oakland
4-2-10
4
5
7
KC
1-0-15
3
4
9

NFC
Favored in
Minimum
Toss Up
Minimum L
NY Giants
9-3-4
6
4
6
Philly
9-3-4
7
4
5
Dallas
8-3-5
7
4
5
Washington
2-4-10
5
6
5




New Orleans
12-0-4
8
4
4
Atlanta
10-2-4
7
4
5
Carolina
5-1-10
5
5
6
Tampa Bay
2-2-12
3
6
7





Green Bay
15-0-1
10
4
2
Chicago
10-1-5
6
4
6
Detroit
8-2-6
6
4
6
Minnesota
5-0-11
4
5
7





San Fran
13-0-3
7
5
4
Seattle
4-2-10
5
5
6
Arizona
2-2-12
4
5
7
St. Louis
2-4-10
4
4
8

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