Friday, September 7, 2012

NFC Preview 2012

Normally I like to go through the AFC first, but since the NFC won the Super Bowl again last year, I'll give it to them.  The first thing I mention for each team is their preseason record as determined by me.  It's largely pointless and I don't think I should have bothered doing it.  Second, I list the team's major acquisitions.  Third, I list random thoughts about the team.  And to finish up each team, I try and break off their record mid-season at an interesting point, say their record for the remaining games and then post my prediction for their overall record.  Then, once I'm done with a division I post the record in a typical division standings format, and give each team a somewhat accurate sentence summary, though sometimes I got carried away with alliteration.

NFC East
Philadelphia  0-1  Very little turnover for Philly, it looks like they picked up two LB's, DeMeco Ryans, and Mychal Kendricks, and also a punter.  Most people were a year early on the Eagles rising... including myself..  but this year I really think that the Eagles will soar..  I think Vick will stay healthy for around 14 games, the defense will band together and be a top 5 D, and Philly will capture the division.  5-1, 5-5, 10-6.

Dallas 2-0 Morris Claiborne, and Nate Livings a left-guard.  Romo is a top ten QB, DeMarco Murray is a top 10 RB, both lines are so-so, the WR's are good, the defense is decent.  I have Dallas beating the Giants twice, which enough to catapult the Cowboys into the playoffs.   5-4, 5-2, 10-6.

Eli has a decent year, but the Giants
can't handle the schedule this year.
New York 3-0  Very little turnover in Giants-land, they picked up Martellus Bennett, and David Wilson, a running-back from Virginia Tech.  I think the Giants will be a slightly better team than last years, but they'll have a bullseye on their chest and be taking each team's best shot this year.  3-5, 6-2, 9-7.

Washington 2-1   Main acquisitions, Pierre Garcon, and Robert Griffin the III.  I really like RG3 and would like to put Washington into the playoffs, but having to play @NO, vs ATL, @Pit, vs Bal, and then their two games against Dallas, the Eagles, and the Giants, I don't see it happening.  2-6, 4-4, 6-10.


Philadelphia      10-6       3 seed,  Dream team finally makes playoffs.  
Dallas                 10-6      2nd Wild Card Can Romo and the Cowboys end the playoff drought?
New York             9-7        Last year's champs, don't have enough to make a run this time.
Washington          6-10      Washington faces immense pressure due to economic difficulties a tough schedule.   

NFC South
Atlanta  3-0 Asante Samuel, CB.  Don't look now, but I don't think the Falcons defense is going to be awful this year.   Matt Ryan is a top 10 QB, Julio Jones averaged a whopping 7.8 yards YAC last year, and their CB's could be the best in the league.  4-2, 7-3, 11-5.


New Orleans  1-1 Ben Grubbs, a LG, and Curtis Lofton.  Even with all the mess that was New Orleans in the offseason, I only have the Saints Sinners missing the playoffs due to a tiebreaker, thanks to a loss against the Cowboys in week 16.  If he remains healthy, I think Drew Brees has a fair chance to break the all-time passing record, set by Dan Marino in 1984 scratch that, I mean set by Drew Brees last year.   So despite tying for the 7th best record in the NFL, the Sinners are left home come the playoffs.  4-3, 6-3, 10-6.

Tampa Bay 2-1 Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark, Doug Martin, who attended Boise, and 3 defensive players.  Tampa Bay has a new head coach, Greg Schiano, a Christian, a decent defensive coach, and most recently the head coach at Rutgers.  For some of the Bucs games, I forgot that Schiano was the head coach, so TBay was kind of all over the place.  The Buccaneers are my second breakout team for the NFC (not that I've mentioned my first, yet), and while they're a fairly young team, if they get some bounces of the football, then I think they can make .500.   6-3, 2-5, 8-8.

Carolina 1-0  Mike Tolbert, a FB, and Luke Kuechly, a LB who went to Boston College.  I expect Newton and the Panthers to take a small step forward this year, but end up with the same record.  3-3, 3-7, 6-10.

Atlanta               11-5        2nd in NFC, Ryan ridiculously ready,  Julio joyfully jumps, Atlanta accelerates attack.
New Orleans        10-6        Lose tie-breaker to Dallas, Bounty-Gate penalties take toll on D.    
Tampa Bay           8-8         2nd most improved team in the NFL, thanks to Josh Freeman, and Coach Schaino. 
Carolina                6-10       Newton nightly neutralizes, defense day-dreams, Carolina crumbles.

NFC North
Green Bay 1-0  Cedric Benson, at RB, and Jeff Saturday.  Two very good pickups for the Pack-attack.   Aaron Rodgers had around a 150.2 rating when throwing to Jordy Nelson in 2011.  Insane.  4-2, 8-2, 12-4.

Chicago
 1-2 Brandon Marshall, Michael Bush, and Alshon Jeffery.  I have the Bears sweeping the Packers head to head, but blowing their chance at the division title, when they lose to the Lions in week 17.   9-1, 2-3, 11-5.

Detroit 
2-1  Bill Bentley, CB, and Sean Jones, Defensive back.  Stafford had an average of 1 dropped pass on 3rd down each week.  So you would think that would have to improve.  Imho, the Lions have the best D-line in football, a top 15 QB, Megatron, running back.  But, even with all of that, I have a  slight step back for the Lions.  2-4, 6-4, 8-8.

Minnesota   1-1 Jerome Simpson, a WR, and Blair Walsh, a kicker.  I don't see a record amount of franchise losses this year, but the Vikings don't exactly burn the barn down either.  3-4, 2-7, 5-11.

Green Bay 12-4    1st in the AFC,  and 1st in America's hearts.
Chicago     11-5   1st Wildcard, Cutler cruises, Forte falls forward, Marvelous Marshall, Lovely Lovie.
Detroit         8-8     The Lions have injuries, and off-field problems, but still manage .500.
Minnesota    5-11   Ponder pontificates, Peterson patters, Harvin hurdles,  Vikings vanish.

NFC West
Saint Louis 1-2   The Rams main acquisitions were, Steve Smith (no not that Steve Smith), three offensive linemen, two WR's, a kicker and punter, SIX defensive players, and a partridge in a pear tree no wait, I guess that's it.. So as compared to week 17 of last season, it looks like the Lambs will be starting around 13 regulars from last year, while replacing 13 regulars.  A personnel starting turnover rate at 50%, and even higher once the season actually starts?  Ouch.  
Even with all of that, the Rams happen to be my breakout team of the year.  So on what am I basing a turnaround in St. Louis??  To be honest, I'm not positive.  It's mostly just a combination of Coach Jeff Fisher, Sam Bradford, and this.. A team has gone from worst to first every year since 2003.  So why can't it be the Rams, this year?  And I mean a reason different than, they are the Rams after-all.  4-2, 4-6, 8-8.


San Francisco 1-2 The only real movement I saw from SF, was two WR's, Randy Moss, and Mario Manningham.  So the 49er's didn't really lose anything on defense, and improved on offense.  I didn't buy into Coach Harbaugh last year, and got absolutely burned, but I'm going to try the same thing this year.  So I'm probably either following the maxim, If at first you don't succeed, then try, try, again,  or the definition of insanity: trying the same thing and expecting different results.  Anyways though..  I expect Alex Smith to fall back a bit this year, the ball not to bounce the 49er's way this year, and the 49er's somehow to not win the NFC West.  6-3, 2-5, 8-8.


Seattle 3-0  Russell Wilson, and Robert Turbin, a RB who went to Utah State .  If I somehow knew that Matt Flynn was going to get the majority of the starts this season, then I would probably have Seattle in the playoffs.  But I don't, and instead Seattle is starting Russell Wilson.  Russell Wilson the second coming of Andrew Luck, or I guess Matt Hasselbeck since it's Seattle.  Nothing against Wilson, I just don't know if he can be an Andy Dalton and lead his team to the playoffs.  Give Wilson a year or two, and I think he'll be a good starting QB.   1-7 with mostly Wilson at QB, (the second half of the season I have Flynn starting most of the games) 6-2, 7-9 overall so at least Coach Caroll is extremely consistent, going 7-9 three years in a row.

Arizona 1-3 Two offensive linemen, Adam Snyder, and Bobby Massie, and William Gay coming over from Pittsburgh.  If the Cards end up being the landing spot for David Garrard, then I like their chances of making some noise in the division.  I really dislike saying that Coach Whisenhunt, another good Christian head coach, will have a 4 win team, but with the apparent lack of a QB in Arizona, I think I have to do it.  1-6, 3-6, 4-12.

St. Louis             8-8       4th seed.   I mean c'mon it's possible, right?  Right?  Right.      
San Francisco      8-8       Bounced by the Rams, thanks to divisional record..       
Seattle                 7-9       Wilson is succeeded by Flynn, but too late in the season.               
Arizona                4-12     Skelton struggles, Kolb keels, out of options, Whisenhunt wails.          

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