The picks went well enough in week 12 to be the only post for regular season picks that I will do for this season wherein I will make the picks and explain the reasoning before making the picks. But, it was interesting enough that I will likley go ahead and post what my picks are for a decent portion of the rest of the season. The picks for week 12 were not extremely representative of the season I've been having. Week 12 was either the best or second best week for spread picks that I've had this year. Which isn't necessarily to say that I've been horrible with spread picks, I've been above .500 in 6 of the last 8 weeks (though I was below .500 for 3 of the first 4 weeks of the season), just that week 12 was above my normal decent level.
Non Picks
Rams-Bears Even with Clemens still not producing, the Rams still somehow scored more than forty on the Bears. Still a good non-pick, the Bears are the better team, but the Rams were in the slightly better position. The Rams are just playing out the string with Clemens at QB.. I don't know what their general goal is right now.. Coach Fisher and company is still doing a good job of getting value out of the team, but they have a bit of a quandary right now as to whether they should stick with Bradford or look for some other quarterback. The Bears are a somewhat interesting team right now, McCown has done a very admirable job as a fill-in for Cutler, and the Bears are still somewhat in the hunt for grabbing a playoff spot.
Panthers-Dolphins Another pick that was good to stay away from, the Panthers did end up winning late on another Comeback Cam drive, but even with the win they were a point below beating the spread. The public is way too high on the Panthers right now. The Panthers should have done better in the early portion of the season, but these last few weeks they have been the team getting the breaks. The Dolphins should be a team without a chance at the playoffs, but they're playing in the soft AFC and hence they still have a fair chance at making the playoffs.
Texans-Jags Or a Jaguars 'blowout'.. And the basic 10 point principle wins once again. Another game that was fine to stay away from, Keenum was below average, and the Houston offense did almost nothing. In no way did I see this happening before the season, but somehow the Texans actually have a fair shot at getting a top 5 pick in the draft. The Jaguars are a horrible team and, no offense meant to them at all, but also sort of dense enough that they also may win enough to lose draft positioning. [and they went ahead and won again on Sunday..] Great job management. Not that getting Teddy Bridgewater would solve anything anyways.. He plays for Louisville.. Not to stereotype him, but he would quite possibly be similar to a better version of Geno Smith. (And I don't really have a strong position on how decent of a player Bridgewater is right now, I haven't seen him play beyond highlights. I might catch some of Louisville's games sometime to see where I would guess that he measures up.)
Colts-Cards Vegas again asked the public to take the Colts, and it came through for Vegas. The stay away was still the right play, but this was the closest one to 'should have been a pick'. The Colts are a relative lock to make the playoffs, however they've been showing more of their true colors of late and have been a poorish team that depends on Luck to bail them out. The Cards are a fairly underrated team, by about everyone, including myself, but I still do not think they will make the playoffs.
I am not certain as to what would be the average of games that I wouldn't pick each week, but, even though I can be irrationally confident about the picks before the games occur, I would guess that it would generally be a little higher than 4 games.
Overall non picks: 2-2. Obviously not all that great to bat .500, but that's kind of the reason the games were no plays. I was not convinced either way in these games and therefore my pick would likely be slightly worse than a coin flip, possibly in the area of a 47% proposition. The two games I won were blowouts, while the two games I lost were somewhat close.
Actual Picks
Favorites
Ravens-Jets Not a lot to say for this game.. The Ravens did what they should have, while the Jets played like the team they are.. A bad team with a poor quarterback. The Ravens are a mediocre team, but that fits in fine with the mediocrity of the other teams that are 'fighting' for the the 6th playoff seed. Also, Fluko Flacco is getting paid over a million dollars per game.. Just wanted to mention that little fact. (I think that every time the Ravens come up for my blogging I'll be a little tempted to bring that up.) Congrats once again to management for signing him to an 11 digit deal (including pennies). The Jets are another one of those brilliantly managed teams, never letting Tebow see the light of day, drafting and playing Geno Smith, still having Marc Sanchez, signing Ed Reed, etc, etc, some GM's never seem to learn. Funnily enough though, the Jets may possibly still be in contention for the 6th playoff spot when it's week 16.
Packers-Vikings, No way, Flynn is a better QB than Tolzien? I never would have guessed.. I was slightly disappointed in Tolzien's play, but really he did mostly as expected, the worse part for the Packers was on the other side of the ball. The defense was kind of beyond poor considering they were facing the powerhouse of CP and and beat-up Vikings team. Due to the lack of wisdom (And really in this scenario I don't think it makes sense to try and 'find out' what Tolzien can do in this spot.. Imho, generally, not very much information on the long term prospects of a QB can be gleaned from just a few starts. Case in point, about every single quarterback that's played in the NFL..) of Flynn not playing until the 3rd quarter, the Packers could only muster the tie, and thus did not cover. Still the right side and a decent pick.
The Packers should simply be sticking with Flynn the rest of the way until Rodgers is fully recovered, and as such, if the Lions manage to choke a few games, then the Packers will likely still have a shot for winning the division come week 17. What did the Vikings gain from this game? They hurt a division 'rival' since they could not tie for the division lead, but in the meanwhile the VIking's draft positioning was hurt. This isn't to say that they should have been playing for a loss or anything, but I just find it a bit frustrating when a team like the Vikings is mired in incompetency.. Fairly clearly, in my view, none of the Vikings QBs are competent level NFL QBs.. (Unless the competency is related to how likely it is that one of them can get you a top 5 draft choice.) It isn't all rocket science, teams without a real plan at the most important position in the game are generally going to be destined for failure. And by most important position I clearly mean their punter, Jeff Locke, clearly..
The Packers should simply be sticking with Flynn the rest of the way until Rodgers is fully recovered, and as such, if the Lions manage to choke a few games, then the Packers will likely still have a shot for winning the division come week 17. What did the Vikings gain from this game? They hurt a division 'rival' since they could not tie for the division lead, but in the meanwhile the VIking's draft positioning was hurt. This isn't to say that they should have been playing for a loss or anything, but I just find it a bit frustrating when a team like the Vikings is mired in incompetency.. Fairly clearly, in my view, none of the Vikings QBs are competent level NFL QBs.. (Unless the competency is related to how likely it is that one of them can get you a top 5 draft choice.) It isn't all rocket science, teams without a real plan at the most important position in the game are generally going to be destined for failure. And by most important position I clearly mean their punter, Jeff Locke, clearly..
Raiders-Titans Vegas and the public were right..., but only by technicality. The Raiders were around an 85% probability to win the game with less than 3 minutes to play, but then the Raiders D# collapsed, and the Titans got the last minute victory. Also, I fail to see why there is so much praise directed to McGloin, I haven't been able to pay much attention to the Raiders the last few weeks so I don't have a great read as to how he has played and how his decisions have been, but, in my opinion, Pryor fairly consistently made winning plays, and provides a level of speed that very few people have. While Pryor's accuracy was poor, he is a very young QB, and it certainly can improve. Also.. Again the Raiders were given a horrible (/joke) line by Vegas in their game against the Cowboys.
The Raiders were quite possibly given the dagger in their game against the Titans, they're still only a game out of the 6th playoff spot, but their schedule is very difficult for the last 3rd of the season. The Raiders have been in every single game but two so far this season, the ball has just generally 'bounced' the other way come the final 5 minutes. Still a decent pick and the right side. The Titans are, like the Rams, in a weird spot with the decision regarding their QB. Based on their schedule the Titans are still very much alive to actually make the playoffs, and if they had been able to hold off Luck on a single drive, they could be challenging to host a playoff game.. And if this team would have played in the NFC West this year, then they would be somewhat fortunate to have more than 3 wins.
The Raiders were quite possibly given the dagger in their game against the Titans, they're still only a game out of the 6th playoff spot, but their schedule is very difficult for the last 3rd of the season. The Raiders have been in every single game but two so far this season, the ball has just generally 'bounced' the other way come the final 5 minutes. Still a decent pick and the right side. The Titans are, like the Rams, in a weird spot with the decision regarding their QB. Based on their schedule the Titans are still very much alive to actually make the playoffs, and if they had been able to hold off Luck on a single drive, they could be challenging to host a playoff game.. And if this team would have played in the NFC West this year, then they would be somewhat fortunate to have more than 3 wins.
49ers-Redskins
I expected the 49er's D# to be dominating, but I wasn't sure what the 9ers offense could do. Playing against 5 and a half still isn't great, but the reasoning and process of the outcome again appears to show that it was the right pick.
Favorites went 2-2. Again semi-decent results, despite batting .500. (By that I mean that a blowout win is worth more than a toss up win. Since the toss-up win was thus likely based somewhat on randomness, while the blowout win was likely a somewhat common result.. In regards to that team winning.) Two demolition victories, while the two losses were less than a touchdown (in total) from being correct.
Underdogs
Falcons-Saints
The Falcons and Texans have frustrated me all season with their ineptitude, the Falcons partially continued it here, but at least this time they covered the spread. At this point in the season when the Falcons aren't really playing for much besides paychecks and pride, it probably would have been better to just stay away from this game. It's quite possible that the Falcons will flip from top of the division to bottom.. It's even possible that they could flip from top of the NFC to bottom of the NFC.. Such a disappointing turnaround. The Saints have 4 more tough games, even if their opposition doesn't necessarily have great records, they're a relative lock to reach the playoffs.
Buccaneers-Lions
As with all of these games except the Falcons game, the straight-up upset came through as well. The 'gift' line wasn't entirely inaccurate, considering the Lions had 5 turnovers as opposed the Buccaneers 0, however it was still too high. If the line would have been accurate, then this would have been a bad play, but with the extra points it was a fine play. The Bucs are a competent team and I think will finish the season somewhat strongly. The Lions are one of the most dominant, mistake prone teams in the NFL. They control their playoff destiny and I'm not certain that they can choke enough games to give the division to the
Chargers-Chiefs
And by 'line' I meant over/under line.. Or not. But, it did effectivley play-out that the game line was too low, considering that the Chiefs had 2 TO's to the Chargers 0. It probably would have been better to stay away from this game. The Chargers have a chance at the playoffs, but quite possibly their losses to the Titans and Dolphins will come back to 'haunt' them. When the Chiefs were 8-0 I still thought there was actually a possibility that they would not make the playoffs, but since then the playoff bubble has weakened and the Chiefs are a fairly safe lock for the 5th seed.
Patriots-Broncos
Well, it started off extremely well for the Broncos, but it did not end well for them.. Considering the weather, I don't think the game should have been as close as it was. The Pats were the right side and the line was off. The Patriots are actually underrated by Vegas and by the public and this is even with them being a relative lock to be the #1 or #2 seed. The Broncos four remaining teams are all below .500 so that, combined with the weather, should help to soften up the Broncos for the playoffs, even if they will quite possibly enter with the #1 seed.
Cowboys-Giants
Answer: There is no downside. The Giants made the game closer than it should have been, but the Cowboys showed that they are indeed, somewhat clearly, the better team. The Cowboys have a tough remaining 4 games and may not make the playoffs, but it won't be the fault of Romo.. The Giants started their late season run a game or two late, but they can still play the role of spoiler.
Answer: There is no downside. The Giants made the game closer than it should have been, but the Cowboys showed that they are indeed, somewhat clearly, the better team. The Cowboys have a tough remaining 4 games and may not make the playoffs, but it won't be the fault of Romo.. The Giants started their late season run a game or two late, but they can still play the role of spoiler.
Steelers-Browns
And then, once Campbell was injured, Roethlisberger is on one side of the field with Weeden on the other side.. The Steelers play some playoff-peripheral teams the next few weeks so they have a chance to create some of their own breaks. The Browns offense is so poor.. And that's with a top 5 receiver. Without Gordon they might be scoring 13 a game. Other than draft positioning, what are the Browns gaining from playing QBs of the ilk of Weeden and Campbell?
6-0 with picking underdogs. As usual, underdogs were where everything comes together for me. As I mentioned, five of the 'underdogs' managed straight-up victories, and all of the underdogs were able to cover the spread. Overall spread record for the week for all games was 10-4. The overall record in games that I would have picked was a very decent 8-2.
And in actual games that I picked, the mean loss would be 3.5 points and the mean win would 10.4. (Quick sidenote, it doesn't necessarily provide any great insightful information, but the three largest overall point differential games in relation to spread were all decided in the non-picks.) Very solid numbers here as well, 3.5 obviously isn't significant over 2 games, but it at least means the two games were only a play away from being a victory, while average wins at 10.4 are slightly more significant since they are spread across 8 games and partially shows that the picks were indeed decent picks.
Picks for week 13
While this may be partially revisionist history (which is obviously not a great idea..), my main picks likely would have been something like Eagles, Falcons, and Raiders, which would have gone 2-1. Most likely, however, I would have made other picks as well. Since I did not officially decide on these picks beforehand, they will not be considered into my overall record.
Picks for week 14
There were some somewhat strong leanings, but no picks for the Bucs, Steelers, Broncos, Rams, and Chargers. Only four picks for week 14. Actual picks, in order of confidence, Cowboys, Raiders, Eagles, Texans. As a quick note, all four of the lines are accurate, except for the Texan's line, which actually favors the Jaguars. Apparently the Jets poor play in recent weeks was enough to match the poor perception of the Raiders, considering that this week is the first week in quite a few weeks in which the Raider's line is a somewhat fair line.
I had many more struggles for week 14 than the previous two weeks. The somewhat strong leanings only went 3-2. Bucs, Broncs, and Chargers all with blowout victories, while for the two losses the Rams were blown-out and the Steelers lost a somewhat close game (spread-wise). While I had another winning week overall for picking the spread. The games that I did pick finished with a very poor 1-3 record.
I'm not entirely certain what happened in the Cowboys game. The Bears are a decent team, and McCown is a good QB, but still, the Cowboys should have had the offense to win that game. I cannot completely make a determination as to whether that was the right side and if that should have been a pick, but I would tend to still say yes.
While the Raiders were the right side, the game probably should have been a stay away.. I still don't understand why the Raiders are playing McGloin over Pryor. They have all-but destroyed their playoff hopes with that decision.
Eagles - For this game, if I would have known about the weather conditions and that Bush would be out for this game, then it would still have been a good pick. But, if I had known about the weather conditions and not known about Bush, then it would have been a bad pck. And as I knew about neither it will remain the mostly right side and a decent pick.
The Texans' game never should have been a pick. Not only did/does it make sense for the Texans to lose that game, but the two teams were partially headed in opposite directions. The main reason that I liked the game was because I thought that Keenum would play well and partially solidify himself as the starter heading into next season. But, it makes sense for the Texans to continue their free fall and be able to grab a top 4 draft choice and then either pick up Clowney or trade their pick for other first round picks. Also, the line was clearly slanted in the Texans' favor, so that should have meant an automatic stay away as well.
Overall record falls to 9-5. In my future picks I will try to stay away from picking teams whose seasons are finished and from teams who already have a line that is unfavorable to them, because the line favors them more than it should.
Results for week 15
I had many more struggles for week 14 than the previous two weeks. The somewhat strong leanings only went 3-2. Bucs, Broncs, and Chargers all with blowout victories, while for the two losses the Rams were blown-out and the Steelers lost a somewhat close game (spread-wise). While I had another winning week overall for picking the spread. The games that I did pick finished with a very poor 1-3 record.
I'm not entirely certain what happened in the Cowboys game. The Bears are a decent team, and McCown is a good QB, but still, the Cowboys should have had the offense to win that game. I cannot completely make a determination as to whether that was the right side and if that should have been a pick, but I would tend to still say yes.
While the Raiders were the right side, the game probably should have been a stay away.. I still don't understand why the Raiders are playing McGloin over Pryor. They have all-but destroyed their playoff hopes with that decision.
Eagles - For this game, if I would have known about the weather conditions and that Bush would be out for this game, then it would still have been a good pick. But, if I had known about the weather conditions and not known about Bush, then it would have been a bad pck. And as I knew about neither it will remain the mostly right side and a decent pick.
The Texans' game never should have been a pick. Not only did/does it make sense for the Texans to lose that game, but the two teams were partially headed in opposite directions. The main reason that I liked the game was because I thought that Keenum would play well and partially solidify himself as the starter heading into next season. But, it makes sense for the Texans to continue their free fall and be able to grab a top 4 draft choice and then either pick up Clowney or trade their pick for other first round picks. Also, the line was clearly slanted in the Texans' favor, so that should have meant an automatic stay away as well.
Overall record falls to 9-5. In my future picks I will try to stay away from picking teams whose seasons are finished and from teams who already have a line that is unfavorable to them, because the line favors them more than it should.
Picks for week 15
Originally I did not have very many picks for this week, but I convinced myself on a couple of games that were previously just strong leanings towards that team. The worst lines (meaning, that they should have been made a few points in the direction of this team) were for the Jaguars (again), Eagles, Seahawks, Ravens, and, for once, the opposition of the Raiders, hence the Chiefs. Soft leanings: Browns and Texans. Actual picks: Patriots, Eagles, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers, Tampa Bay.
The first three teams are all favorites, but, other than just liking them in their respective games anyways, the lines show that it would still be advantageous to pick them, consequently I will still take the points for each of those three teams. Then I take some points and have three underdog picks. I don't entirely like the Packers and Steelers, those two picks are more heart picks than brain, but I still think that each team is on the right side.
The Patriots, Eagles, and Buccaneers all lost. While the Seahawks, Steelers, and Packers all managed victories. My final overall record falls a little more to 12-8. Thank you for reading.
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