So this is what attempts to group NBA superstars looks like? Thunderous dunks, three Finals series appearances, and two NBA titles in a mere three years? Yeah, based on that, it certainly seems like it was a horrible idea for LeBron to head to South Beach. And looking back, Pat Riley really should have listened to the media pressure to blow-up the team, because then what..? The Heat would have won the series in 5 games?
Seriously though, the talk that the Heat should have been blown up the team (and especially the means therein, such as not actually trading D-Wade) and that Chris Bosh was the weak link on the team was silly at the time and is still a silly thing now. And this isn't to reverse engineer anything, obviously, the Spurs were most definitely in the series, as, to a certain extent, the Thunder were as well. The thing is, chemistry does not mesh overnight and Chris Bosh was generally not the true weak link on that team.
Quick outline of the blog
So with the title I tried a little alliteration, followed by a somewhat failed attempt to sarcastically parallel this. Which I don't think I've linked to before, but I've certainly thought about linking it for various political things. I kind of use even more appositives and brackets than usual, for whatever reason, throughout this post. And then throughout this post, especially with the various game notes (since they are kind of by definition, random), I am a little bit random with the discussion. Overall this post is a bit messy and the formatting is a bit off, like the post not being justified, but I was unable to change the formatting without creating further problems. This is also an extremely late post, I figured I should finish editing it and post it before I reviewed the 2014 NBA Finals.
Interesting notes
"The Heat were minus-12 with all three stars on the floor against Indiana, and a disastrous minus-27 against San Antonio." (Quoted from Zach Lowe.) Shane Battier summed it up nicely: “We were not aggressive. And when our defense is soft, we are very pedestrian.”
Once the Heat started their series against the Pacers the Zig Zag Theory would have been extremely profitable.
The Grizzly Grinders got grounded by the Spurs. The Spurs were extremely efficient and Grizzlies could not hit enough semi-open three's.
Quick tangent.. I like (and don't like) coaches and players interviews, because they can (every once in a great while..) provide a little bit of insight into actual coaching or playing, and I like (and the viewing public likes) having the coaches or players humanized more.. (And that is kind of obviously the real reason why the league still has coaches interviews.)
However, coach interviews can be a bit awkward at times.. Hello Coach Popovich.. and, generally speaking, none of the coaches really want to be interviewed at that time.. (It's like interviewing a grand-master in the middle of a chess match.. Jeff Van Gundy) However.. That still should not provide coaches with a real excuse.. If it's enforced by the NBA, then it's enforced by the NBA.. You (effectively) have to follow it. So why not make the best of a 'bad' scenario and actually pretend to care? Why not make eye contact with the reporter? Why not offer a real coaching tactic, rather than 'we need to be better in transition defense'? Just some silly little things that I think coaches should sometimes attempt to implement.
And mostly the same types of things goes for players as well, but they have the added benefit of the doubt in that they generally just played a half or an entire game of hard-fought basketball and as such are very sweaty and, once the game is over [since they won], will often have their minds not entirely present, because they will generally want to be thinking of/doing something besides talking about the game, such as 'partying', going to sleep, taking an ice bath, or doing other various recovery things, etc.
Why does Kevin Durant pretend/try to be 'not nice'? My opinion of KD has slipped a fair amount over the last year or two. A large contributing factor to his decline? KP. Kendrick Perkins. (Maybe I'm overblowing it a little) KD used to point to the sky after made three's, now it's hard to tell sometimes.. He used to have decent eye contact with reporters during interviewers, now it's generally more of a glance and look away kind of thing. He used to be a bit soft-spoken, and didn't mind being seen as a 'nice guy', now he thinks he has to look 'tough' so that he will not finish 'last'.. And since he doesn't want to finish 'last', he has to have and show a darker edge/side to himself.. Whether it's the increase in swearing, the demonstrative 'leadership' (see that as pointless showboating..), or any of the other things, I think that KD has lost touch with who I think he really should be. With whom he used to accurately fit.. (Which isn't to pigeon hole KD or anything, since he can can obviously do effectively whatever he wants to do.)
Memphis' assistant HC is very good.. (I believe I was referring to David Joerger..) I was basically basing that off of roughly 30 seconds of a television interview. I said that at the time because, (as I remember) he actually made eye contact with everyone involved, especially the interviewer, and he even had some intelligent basketball dialogue.
Generally my analysis and 'gut feelings' have a bit more depth then to be based on all of 30 seconds.. But, on a fair number of occasions gut instincts do tend to be correct, and since that interview I have looked into Coach Joerger a little bit. He was quite successful in coaching teams at levels such as the NBA D-League. (I do think that coaching tends to be able to transcend levels.) And then also I listened to about a combined 20 minute clip of him in some radio interviews and he was very impressive in them as well.
Coach Joerger provided some straight-forward insight with some actual analytic and real basketball positions talk. As opposed to the gobblygook platitudes that are fairly often presented from basketball coaches' radio interviews, where the coaches talk about such things as effort-level, ability to rebound, bounces of the ball, etc. And all of those things do have there places, and are quite important, especially effort-level, but they are, to a certain extent, simply just variants which can not be controlled.. As opposed to if a coach is actually detailing characteristics as to where and how a team's defense is supposed to be defending the opposition.
And that's definitely not to bash platitude coaches too much, since there is no rule that says that coaches must share actual information with the media and the general public. So there is probably, technically, no real benefit to having much beyond a personality portraying yourself as nice, open, and being PC, and saying things like, 'both teams played very well', '___ is a great coach', 'they have a good team', 'our players are really improving', etc., etc. And all of those things may or may not be true, and they may or may not be meant as truth by the person saying them, it's just that those sayings don't provide an actual explicit, accurate description of how and what a coach thinks about his team and opposing teams.
Game 5 Notes
1st
James is disengaged
Good hustle by Bosh
Great job getting it to Duncan down low
Diaw good job on LBJ
Cole is getting destroyed by Parker
2nd
Finally a double team (of Ginobli) and it resulted in a TO. Another double team resulted in semi contested 3 for Green.
Bosh's jumper has really stunk lately.
Chalmers gives Green a layup of a 3.
Wade has had two straight attack of the hoop possessions and oddly enough.. Good things have happened. Odd what happens when you actually attack the basket instead of settling for long jumpers..
2:32 mark, James with a very impressive extremely quick post up (and up) of Green.
Spurs have hit the low post so many times.
More time for Battier. (Finally)
James 1:27 mark, over-dramatized reaction to no call.
More free throws in this game, but it's still been a well called game.
Very good offense for both sides in the 1st half in terms of Q & NQ, and it's shown on the scoreboard.
4 secs, Cole didn't even do a bad job defending, and yet Parker owned him again.
Game 5 continued (I think)
Parker has had some impressive drives
Green has had some issues this game, but he's still destroying it from deep.
James should have helped..
Chalmers should stop taking so many 3's.
Such a smart pass by James.. A very quick pass to Bosh while he was in the post being defended by Green.
Why are the Heat overly hectic right now?
Heat are getting diced a bit.
Cole hasn't done a horrible job of defending, but he's just getting owned by Parker.
4th
Great move by Bosh, drive and fake on Duncan
Lazy pass by Wade.
High scoring game and pace throughout.
Good job by Wade on Parker. (surprise..)
Allen is so efficient at taking quick shots.
Bosh is such a hustle player.
Game 5 Notes
Heat Defense Miller and Bosh were great, Cole and James struggled.
Spurs Defense Diaw, Duncan, and Leonard were all very decent. Green was below his usual greatness, but he was still certainly good. No poor defenders.
Spurs Offense Duncan, Leonard, and Green most efficient, Parker and Neal mostly inefficient.
Heat Offense In order, Wade, James, Allen, and Bosh completely dominated the Heat's attempts. Once again, great Q offense, only semi poor player was Wade.
Game 6 (I think)
Game over..
Chalmers is here?
Wow. The Heat at the commercial break have 3 Q & 5 NQ shot attempts. (Which is extremely horrible for all of them, except Wade, who happened to be dominating the ball both at that point, and a fair portion of the game)
Van Gundy says an iso shot by James was a "good shot." What? That's the one shot in his repertoire that I don't like.
No PG early, 5:50 on.
Players are running over other players, and yet there have been very few calls so far. (the officials started to make a few calls after a while)
Allen why?
Anderson checks in at 3:30, yay. And Coach Spoelstra even has Battier in, wow.
Coincidentally an 8-0 run by the Heat.. How odd.
2nd Quarter
The Spurs are leaving Battier wide open.. Wow.. It's like they have the 'defending Green paralysis' the Heat had earlier in the series.
Wade, ugh.. Wade ISO show for the last few possessions. (While he did do a decent job of making NQ shots, 6-7 on NQ, 5-2 on Q, it was still very annoying to watch)
Parker has been missing his NQ deep 2's lately.. That is a bit odd for him..
James is showing effort
Chalmers is hustling everywhere
2nd
Wade eurostep again
Duncan impressive sweepthrough
LBJ has the most PPG in elimination games of all time.. How's that for clutch.. Just sayin'.
Great D by Diaw.
Diaw doing amazingly well.
Parker and all the Spurs are fairly classy
3rd
Great post by LBJ on Green.
The refs are kind of exuberant..
Great D by Chalmers
Duncan over the back and they call a foul on Miller..
Wade's little floaters are good
James has missed a lot of close shots
Diaw is fast..
4th
Nice shoe-less 3
Why doesn't Lebron take the open 3?
Was Lebron not clutch when he missed the semi open 3 & clutch when he hit it? (The thought process behind 'clutchness' can be very lame..)
Heat should have lost the series here..
James had kind of poor d on the last possession. Just sayin.
Headbandless Lebron has been fairly bad, but he was having a poor game anyways..
Why does Lebron keep his hands down so much on defense?
Green and Bosh are really good at transition defense.
Good no call. Game over.
James is showing effort
Chalmers is hustling everywhere
2nd
Wade eurostep again
Duncan impressive sweepthrough
LBJ has the most PPG in elimination games of all time.. How's that for clutch.. Just sayin'.
Great D by Diaw.
Diaw doing amazingly well.
Parker and all the Spurs are fairly classy
3rd
Great post by LBJ on Green.
The refs are kind of exuberant..
Great D by Chalmers
Duncan over the back and they call a foul on Miller..
Wade's little floaters are good
James has missed a lot of close shots
Diaw is fast..
4th
Nice shoe-less 3
Why doesn't Lebron take the open 3?
Was Lebron not clutch when he missed the semi open 3 & clutch when he hit it? (The thought process behind 'clutchness' can be very lame..)
Heat should have lost the series here..
James had kind of poor d on the last possession. Just sayin.
Headbandless Lebron has been fairly bad, but he was having a poor game anyways..
Why does Lebron keep his hands down so much on defense?
Green and Bosh are really good at transition defense.
Good no call. Game over.
Game 7 Notes
Heat Defense Anderson and Bosh were the best defenders for this game, Battier also did a very good job, and LBJ did a decent job. Allen was a bit poor.Spurs Defense Leonard had a ton of defensive opportunities (for him anyways), and they charted all over the place, averaging out to a slightly below average job. Green and Duncan were both very good. Neal struggled defensively (per usual).
Spurs Offensive Notes Duncan dominated the shot chart, with a fairly decent amount of his shots being High Q. Parker only barely took double digits, but a large portion were NQ attempts. In the surprising news of the day, Ginobli took a ton of quality shots. Green was largely criticized after the game because he did play fairly poorly, but the thing is he didn't really change the way he goes about things in terms of NQ vs Q shot attempts. While he took a few more NQ shots this game then he usually does, he still certainly wasn't as bad as someone like Tony Parker.
Heat Offensive Notes Wade was his semi-regular horrible NQ self, James did a very good job taking Q shots, I have him at 19 Q to 4 NQ, (also 8 Q ft's to boot). Battier was his usual quality self (and this time the shots actually went down), 6 of 8 from deep all Q. Chalmers took a few NQ shots, but the majority of his shots were still Q, he just had a tough shooting day. Bosh ended up with 0 points, but each of his shot attempts were quality attempts.
Game 6 notes
Heat Defense Anderson, Chalmers and Miller were very good. Bosh was all over the place, and James and Wade were decent. Allen was a poor defender.
Spurs Defense Green and Splitter were good defenders, otherwise there were no really good or really poor defenders.
Spurs Offense Green and Leonard were decent quality shooters, the typical offenders, Parker and Neal, were not. Duncan had a high number of attempts, mostly quality attempts.
Heat Offense James and Bosh were extremely good. Wade was the only main offender. Chalmers was iffy. The rest were good.
Game 4 Series Overview
MVD
Green and Bosh/Anderson have been their team's Most valuable defenders through 4.
MVOP
I can't really split the tie on this one.. So it's a 3 way tie on Miami's side. Chalmers, Bosh, and Allen. (Somewhat honorable mention to LBJ and Anderson, who did not qualify due to lack of shot attempts [Anderson that is..])
Gary Neal.. Kidding, kidding. This side looks much uglier than the Heat side of the table. Another tie.. Green and Leonard. (Somewhat honorable mention to Diaw, but no where close to enough shot attempts to qualify)
MVP
Hopefully the remaining 2 or 3 games will provide some real difference between these three players. But, until then, I have a three-way tie between, Bosh, Allen, and Anderson.
(Honorable mention to Chalmers and not quite as honorable mention to James.)
On San Antonio's side it is certainly Danny Green for the Spurs MVP.
Series Overview
I'm not positive if I actually have all 7 games in or if I only ended up putting in 6 games.. Because, I enter the stats into multiple places and the final series score doesn't matchup quite as well as it should. 684-679 final series score in favor of the Spurs. =5.5+6.5-2-1+1.5+7+6 = 23.5 points in favor of the Heat.
LVOPs
Heat Only real offender for the Heat was D-Wade.
Spurs Neal, Parker, and Duncan were all bad offenders. I'll give the award to Neal, with an un-honorable mention also going to Parker.
LVDPs
Heat James had the most defensive breakdowns, but he doesn't quite qualify for this award. It was between Wade and Allen, and it goes to Wade.
Spurs It was between Parker, Ginobli, and Neal. While he didn't have a ton of defensive opportunities, it goes to Parker.
MVOPs
Heat Honorable mention goes to Bosh, but Miller gets the MVOP for the Heat.
Spurs Honorable mention to Splitter and partially Diaw, but the fairly clear favorite was Green.
Most Valuable Defensive Players
MVDPs
Heat The Heat had other very good defenders, such as Battier and Miller, to name a couple, but Chris Bosh was extremely, extremely impressive and gathers the MVDP.
Spurs There were a couple of close finishers, Diaw, Splitter, and Leonard, but Green captures the MVDP with an impressive average of 1.12 average over an amazing (for a wing player) 97 defensive attempts.
Overarching Notes.
The combined NQ shots from 'just' three players on the Spurs, Parker, Neal, and Duncan, are greater than all the combined NQ shots by the Heat.
Duncan has taken 17 NQ shots.. And hit a grand total of zero of them. Parker is slightly better, shooting 26 NQ shots and hitting 6 of them. Neal has taken a total of 23 NQ shots and he has somehow hit 11 of them. (most of which were 3's)
Wade is the worst NQ offender on the other side, he has taken 17 and splashed 6 of them.
| Legit_Points | More_accurate.. | |
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- 429.6 408.0
Finals overachiever and underachievers as according to if their shots went in via Q or NQ, in another words, if they beat the overall NBA (data) league average.
In order
Overachievers Neal (1.33), Green (1.24),
Status Quo Leonard (1.07), Splitter (1.02), Parker (.95), Duncan (.93)
Underachievers Ginobli (.84), Metamorphosis of Spurs (.79)
Green in real life scored 91 points in the series (+7 free throws), I charted him as scoring approximately 91.3 points, while the simulation of the types of shots he took approximated that he should have scored 73.2 points, so he theoretically over performed very decently and had 18 points more than he should have had overall, and per game he had an average of about 2.6 points more than the number of points he should have scored.
| LEGIT | Total Points | Name |
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- 592.9 579
Overachievers Allen (1.44), Metamorphosis of Heat (1.18), Chalmers (1.16)
Status Quo Bosh (1.00), Wade (.91)
Underachievers James (.87)
James in real life scored 146 points in the series (not counting free throws), I charted him as scoring approximately 144.2, whilst the simulation of the types of shots he took approximated that he should have scored 166.6 points, so he technically under performed fairly greatly, and had 22 points less than he should have overall and per game an average of about 3 points less.
So overall both teams apparently scored more points in real life then they technically should have. The Spurs gathered 22 extra points, while the Heat acquired 14 points.
However.. I am a little confused as to some points the data said, such as.. The Raw point value output..
However.. I am a little confused as to some points the data said, such as.. The Raw point value output..
| Raw | Heat | 0.98 | 1.39 | 1.08 |
| Output | Spurs | 0.91 | 1.27 | 1.01 |
| Raw | 2 Raw3 | Raw T |
Based on it the Heat and Spurs actually underperformed and should have scored fewer points, and while free throws could be a slight variable to explaining this paradox, I'm still not sure why the data conflicts with itself..
But, then the raw value of each shot (after accounting for defense) actually does partially agree with the the raw point value, in that it says 1.08 for the Heat and 0.96 for the Spurs.
One of the reasons why I think that Coach Spoelstra is a top 5 coach in the NBA is because of this -
But, then the raw value of each shot (after accounting for defense) actually does partially agree with the the raw point value, in that it says 1.08 for the Heat and 0.96 for the Spurs.
One of the reasons why I think that Coach Spoelstra is a top 5 coach in the NBA is because of this -
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I have charted other teams that are good at getting quality shots, such as the Spurs, OKC, etc, but the most consistent team I've charted (though they are also far and away the team I've charted the most) is the Miami Heat. Over the 7 game series, I charted them as having 123 free throws.. Of which, 122 of those 123 were quality. Though, it's not like the Spurs were poor quality FT shooters, they shot 132 free throws, and (as the table says) 96% of them were quality, 126 total quality free throws.
Quite possibly the most impressive stats for the Finals are these, the Spurs shot 11% NQ 3's, the Heat shot only 2% NQ 3's, and the Spurs overall had 69% of their shots be quality looks, while the Heat had an extremely spectacular 83% of their shots be quality attempts.
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