NFL Preview Charts for 2014

Team	Wins	Actual Line	Difference	Likely B Case	Most Likely	Likely W Case	Favored
NE Pats	9.9	11	-1.1	13-3	12-4,	10-6,	11-5-0,
NY Jets	6.4	7	-0.6	8-8,	7-9,	4-12,	2-7-7,
Miami	6.8	7.5	-0.7	9-7,	7-9,	4-12,	4-6-6,
Buffalo	6.7	6.5	0.2	8-8,	6-10,	4-12,	0-6-10,
Houston	8.3	7.5	0.8	11-5,	7-9,	5-11,	3-8-5,
Tennessee	8.3	7	1.3	10-6,	7-9,	5-11,	0-9-7,
Indy	7.3	9.5	-2.2	10-6,	8-8,	6-10,	7-6-3,
Jacksonville	4	5	-1	6-10,	3-13,	1-15,	0-2-14
Pittsburgh	9.3	8.5	0.8	12-4,	10-6,	8-8,	8-6-2,
Baltimore	7.9	8.5	-0.6	11-5,	8-8,	6-10,	7-7-2,
Cincy	8.5	9	-0.5	11-5,	9-7,	7-9,	11-4-1,
Cleveland	8.3	6.5	1.8	10-6,	7-9,	5-11,	2-7-7,
Denver	10.7	11.5	-0.8	13-3	11-5,	9-7,	11-4-1,
San Diego	8.6	8	0.6	11-5,	8-8,	6-10,	5-5-6,
Oakland	5.8	5	0.8	7-9,	5-11,	4-12,	1-4-11,
KC	7	8	-1	10-6,	7-9,	5-11,	3-6-7,
Team	Wins	Actual Line	Difference	Likely B Case	Most Likely	Worst case	Favored
NY Giants	6.8	8	-1.2	9-7,	6-10,	3-13,	1-8-7,
Philly	9.7	9	0.7	12-4,	10-6,	9-7,	9-5-2,
Dallas	8.1	7.5	0.6	10-6,	8-8,	6-10,	5-9-2,
Washington	7.8	7.5	0.3	9-7,	7-9,	5-11,	1-8-7,
			0
New Orleans	9.2	10.5	-1.3	13-3	11-5,	8-8,	8-6-2,
Atlanta	8.9	8.5	0.4	11-5,	8-8,	5-11,	2-9-5,
Carolina	7.7	8.5	-0.8	10-6,	7-9,	5-11,	5-5-6,
Tampa Bay	7	7	0	9-7,	6-10,	3-13,	0-4-12,
Green Bay	9.7	10.5	-0.8	13-3	11-5,	9-7,	10-4-2,
Chicago	9	8.5	0.5	11-5,	9-7,	6-10,	6-6-4,
Detroit	9.1	8.5	0.6	13-3	11-5,	6-10,	7-7-2,
Minnesota	5.3	6	-0.7	7-9,	5-11,	4-12,	0-8-8,
San Fran	9.9	10.5	-0.6	14-2,	11-5,	6-10,	11-5-0,
Seattle	10.2	11	-0.8	14-2,	11-5,	8-8,	12-4-0,
Arizona	6.7	7.5	-0.8	11-5,	7-9,	4-12,	4-9-3,
St. Louis	7	7.5	-0.5	9-7,	6-10,	4-12,	1-7-8,
Total	255.9	262.5	-6.6

Team	Schedule Dif	My Guess Raw	My line to Vegas	2 way mine-Vegas	True Dif	Most accurate	Difference	Total Wins
NE Pats	-1.6	11.5	0.5	10.7	-0.3	-0.55	0	11
NY Jets	-1.1	7.5	0.5	6.95	-0.05	-1.8	-3	4
Miami	-0.7	7.5	0	7.15	-0.35	-2.1	-3.5	4
Buffalo	-0.3	7	0.5	6.85	0.35	-0.65	-1.5	5
	0		0	0	0	0	0
Houston	1.3	7	-0.5	7.65	0.15	1.15	1.5	9
Tennessee	1.8	6.5	-0.5	7.4	0.4	1.65	2	9
Indy	-2.2	9.5	0	8.4	-1.1	-2.35	-2.5	7
Jacksonville	-0.5	4.5	-0.5	4.25	-0.75	-1	-1	4
	0		0	0	0	0	0
Pittsburgh	0.8	8.5	0	8.9	0.4	0.65	0.5	9
Baltimore	-1.1	9	0.5	8.45	-0.05	-0.55	-0.5	8
Cincy	-1	9.5	0.5	9	0	-0.75	-1	8
Cleveland	1.3	7	0.5	7.65	1.15	2.15	2.5	9
	0		0	0	0	0	0
Denver	-0.8	11.5	0	11.1	-0.4	-0.65	-0.5	11
San Diego	0.1	8.5	0.5	8.55	0.55	0.3	0	8
Oakland	0.3	5.5	0.5	5.65	0.65	0.9	1	6
KC	-2	9	1	8	0	-0.5	0	8
Team	Schedule Dif	My Guess Raw	My line to Vegas	2 way mine-Vegas	True Dif	Most accurate	Difference	Total Wins
NY Giants	-1.2	8	0	7.4	-0.6	-1.6	-2	6
Philly	-0.3	10	1	9.85	0.85	1.35	2	11
Dallas	0.1	8	0.5	8.05	0.55	0.55	0.5	8
Washington	1.3	6.5	-1	7.15	-0.35	0.9	1.5	9
	0		0	0	0	0	0
New Orleans	-1.3	10.5	0	9.85	-0.65	-0.4	0.5	11
Atlanta	0.9	8	-0.5	8.45	-0.05	0.95	1.5	10
Carolina	0.2	7.5	-1	7.6	-0.9	-1.65	-2.5	6
Tampa Bay	0.5	6.5	-0.5	6.75	-0.25	-1	-2	5
	0		0	0	0	0	0
Green Bay	-0.3	10	-0.5	9.85	-0.65	0.35	1.5	12
Chicago	-0.5	9.5	1	9.25	0.75	1	1.5	10
Detroit	0.1	9	0.5	9.05	0.55	2.05	3.5	12
Minnesota	0.8	4.5	-1.5	4.9	-1.1	-0.85	-1	5
	0		0	0	0	0	0
San Fran	-1.6	11.5	1	10.7	0.2	0.95	2.5	13
Seattle	-1.3	11.5	0.5	10.85	-0.15	-0.9	-1	10
Arizona	-2.3	9	1.5	7.85	0.35	-2.15	-3.5	4
St. Louis	0.5	6.5	-1	6.75	-0.75	-1.5	-2.5	5
Total	-10.1	266	3.5	260.95	-1.55	-6.05	-5.5	257

Three levels of teams

Playoff Caliber

Decent Playoff Chance

Pushovers

Team	Power Ranking	Playoff %	Top 2 RS	Top 4 ply	Top 2 ply	SBA	SBW
Broncos	4	0.9	0.8	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.2
Patriots	8	1	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1
Browns	16	0.5		0.2	0.1	0.1
Titans	22	0.6		0.2	0.1	0.1
Texans	20	0.7	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.1
Steelers	10	0.5	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.1
Bengals	9	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.1
Chargers	12	0.2		0.2	0.1
Chiefs	14	0.2		0.1
Ravens	15	0.3		0.2	0.1
Colts	21	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1
Raiders	23	0.2
Dolphins	24	0.1
Bills	29	0.1
Jets	30	0.1
Jaguars	32	0
Team	Power Ranking	Playoff %	Top 2 Reg	Top 4 ply	Top 2 ply	SBA	SBW
49ers	1	0.9	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.2
Lions	7	0.7	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.1
Packers	5	0.8	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.2	0.1
Eagles	3	0.6	0.1	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1
Saints	6	0.6	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1
Bears	11	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1
Seahawks	2	0.7	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1
Falcons	13	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1
Redskins	19	0.3		0.1
Cowboys	17	0.2
Panthers	18	0.2
Giants	26	0.2
Bucs	28	0
Vikings	31	0
Rams	27	0.1
Cardinals	25	0.1
	528	12	4	8	4	2	1

Teams with Tim Tebow at QB	Realistic power ranking for teams with Tebow at QB	Change in power rankings	Record	Likely playoff seed
Broncos	8	-4	11-5,	1 or 2
Texans	9	11	12-4,	1
Dolphins	12	12	10-6,	5, 6, or out
Raiders	12	11	9-7,	5, 6, or out
Bills	14	15	9-7,	5, 6, or out
Jaguars	20	12	11-5,	3 or 4
Cardinals	7	18	10-6,	5, 6, or out
Vikings	11	20	11-5,	2, 3, or 4
Rams	12	15	10-6,	5, 6, or out

Inserting Tebow as the starting QB hindered the Lions, Patriots, 49ers, Cowboys, Packers, and Broncos respective to their current QB, but for every other team in the NFL inserting Tebow as the starting QB elevated the team's level of play more than their current starting QB.

Only a handful of other quarterbacks in the NFL can help teams as much as Tebow is able to help them.  If a team, such as the Vikings, were to pick Tebow up and insert him as their starting QB then he would improve that team tremendously.

Final Options for picks: Dolphins, Giants, Panthers, Vikings, Rams, Browns, Lions, Philly (Colts and Jets?)
Second Round: Lions, Titans (Pass), Colts, Jets, Giants, Dolphins (Pass), Rams
Last 5: O: Lions U: Colts, Jets, Giants, *Rams
Final Four: Lions, Colts, Jets, and Giants (3-1)
Final 5 picks: Lions Over, Jets and Colts Under, Titans and Browns to win division 50, 50, 50, 10, 10 (2-1, then 0-2 for the division flyers.  Overall win/loss likely at +20.)

Poor Preseason Playoff Predictions

(And this does look fairly ugly now)

3 Browns

1 Broncos

6 Titans

6 Titans

1 Broncos

4 Texans

2 Patriots

5 Steelers

5 Steelers

5 Steelers

5 Steelers

3 Saints

1 49ers

2 Lions

2 Lions

6 Falcons

5 Packers

2 Lions

4 Eagles

2 Lions

5 Packers

5 Packers

3 Saints

Breakout teams: Browns, Lions, and Titans
Fading teams: Colts, Panthers, and Seahawks
Entering wk 16	Still alive	Virtual locks	Out	Dominant	Doormat
AFC	6	5	5, 6, or out	“1”	4
NFC	6	4	6	4	2
Entering wk 17
AFC	5	Possible 3 team tie at 8-8
NFC	3	Possible 3 way tie at 10-6

First to worst possibilities	Can it happen?	Reason why
Bengals	Yes	QB play
Patriots	No	Teams in division
Colts	No	The Jaguars
Broncos	Yes	Manning injury
W2F
Texans	Yes	Division and regression
Bills	Yes	With better QB
Browns	Yes	QB play
Raiders	Quite unlikely	Manning injury and QB play
F2W
Eagles	Unlikely	Division
Saints	Unlikely	Team
Packers	No	Vikings
Seahawks	No	Team
W2F
Redskins	Yes	Division
Falcons	Yes	Team
Vikings	No	Team
Rams	Quite unlikely	With great QB play

Actual Predictions

AFC	Wins	Losses
Patriots	11	5	Patriots partially pulverize pathetic division
Dolphins	6	10	Dolphins disintegrate
Bills	6	10	Jets' E.J. Manuel shows more bluster than brightness
Jets	5	11	Jets jettison playoff plans
Browns	9	7	Browns bounce to their best form
Steelers	9	7	Steelers see semi-decent year
Bengals	8	8	Bengals beat many, but fall to beefy competition
Ravens	7	9	Ravens pass some, but cannot run
Titans	9	7	Titans not terrible with healthy Locker
Texans	9	7	Texans triumph, finally, against Luck
Colts	7	9	Colts get corralled by tough schedule
Jaguars	3	13	Jaguars joke while getting jumped
Broncos	12	4	Broncos beatable by few
Chargers	8	8	Chargers crunchy core, but creamy exterior
Chiefs	7	9	Chiefs cannot get past crummy-ish passing game
Raiders	5	11	Raiders ridiculously feign legitimacy
	121	135
NFC
Eagles	11	5	Eagles enter “Two time division champs” status
Redskins	8	8	Redskins rumble to relevancy
Cowboys	7	9	Cowboys cry and crumble due to defense
Giants	5	11	Giants' greatness is not found
Lions	12	4	Lions light fire and leap Pack-Attack
Packers	12	4	Packers pawn teams, yet fall to 2nd in division
Bears	10	6	Bears beleaguer their attack plan and only manage third
Vikings	5	11	Vikings violate the basic competent QB policy
Saints	11	5	Saints sign-off on division title
Falcons	10	6	Falcons fight off falling to fourth
Panthers	7	9	Panthers' WRs cannot catch passes
Buccaneers	5	11	Buccaneers buckle down too late
49ers	12	4	49ers fear no one and fry fierce opponents
Seahawks	10	6	Seahawks sear most teams, yet are still left from playoffs
Rams	5	11	Rams register respectability, but cannot rule NFC West
Cardinals	5	11	Cardinals need coherent QB play
	135	121
	256	256

Spread picks
My schedule O/U lines had the greatest variability with the Vegas lines in the cases of the Patriots, Titans, Colts, Browns, Chiefs, Giants, and Saints.
My O/U lines were always within a game of Vegas except for in the cases of the Cardinals and Vikings.
The biggest true differences were the Browns, Colts, Jaguars, Chargers, Raiders, Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Saints, Panthers, Packers, Bears, Lions, Vikings, and Rams.
The difference from the most accurate: Jets, Dolphins, Texans, Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Browns, Giants, Eagles, Panthers, Bears, Lions, 49ers, Cards, and Rams. After cleaning a little more: Under: Jets, Dolphins, Colts, Chiefs (Coaching and number), Giants, Panthers, and Bucs (Variables and coaching) Over: Texans (Quarterbacking), Titans, Steelers (Variability, but a good choice), Browns, and Lions
Last Choices: Dolphins, Colts (Very close, but A-Luck is just enough to avoid), Giants, Panthers and Titans (Scary), Browns, Lions.
(Philly worth a look on overs and Vikings and Rams for unders.) (These three picks would have been 2-1.)
Conclusion Overs:  Browns and Lions.
Conclusion Unders: Dolphins, Giants, and Panthers
Results: The Browns managed to beat their projected O/U by week 12, but then proceeded to lose five straight games, so they only beat their line by a half game.  The Lions were a fairly comfortable over throughout the season.
The Dolphins were a little bit more competitive than expected and managed to go over their projected O/U line by a half game.  The Giants were a fairly bad team throughout the season and comfortably went under their projected O/U line.  The Panthers, despite winning their division, managed to go under their projected win total by a game and a half.
Overall Record: 4-1.
Thanks for reading.

NBA Preview 2014

NBA

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors' have a slightly worse team than last year's team, but I expect their record to be similar to last season's record. 48-34 #3

Brooklyn Nets

Coach Hollins should provide some decent coaching and the Nets should be a more competent team this season. 44-38 #5

New York Knicks

Jose Calderon is a great pickup, but losing Tyson Chandler is a tough price to pay for the acquisition. While Coach Fisher should be a decent HC he has little to work with on this team, unless he is actually able to convince the players on the team that the first available semi-open/semi-contested shot is not actually a good shot. 34-48 #11

Boston Celtics

If I would be Coach Stevens then I would totally start Jared Sullinger and the four PGs on the team. Or not. The Celtics' roster is somewhat limited, but I expect Coach Stevens to get more out of his team than any other coach in the league, except for Popovich and possibly Thibodeau. 38-44 #9

Philadelphia 76ers

Given their roster, I assume that the 76ers will be attempting to tank once again this season. When the 76ers actually get some decent players then they will have a good coaching scheme to go along with the players. 16-66 #16

Central

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers lost one of their best players, and one of their most erratic, and replaced him with... Rodney Stuckey? Alrighty then. I suppose that their GM is not trying very hard to be GM of the year. 46-36 #4

Chicago Bulls

I have never been a huge fan of D-Rose's game, but that is just me. Maybe the former MVP (MVP due to voter fatigue...) will surprise me and have a career year whilst leading the Bulls to a 55+ win season. I highly doubt that will happen, however. 50-32 #2

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers made the biggest offseason acquisition of the season and acquired James from the Heat. While James is pushing 30+ years old and may have his best years behind him, I still think that he has some value for the Cavaliers. He made a fairly incredible 52% of his threes last season. If James can bring the same type of threat to the Cavaliers this season, then he should be able to secure a handful of minutes each game.

       Oh, besides James Jones, the Cavaliers also happened to add his Miami teammate, LeBron James. While I do not view LeBron as being some sort of great guy for going back to Cleveland, I had no problem with him leaving Cleveland in the first place. The trio of Irving, James (LeBron that is), and Love should be a fairly terrific, terrifying trio, however, I do think that the rest of the roster for the Cavaliers is rather lacking. Despite their weak bench and their early seasons struggle with cohesion, the tenacious trio should be able to lead the Cavaliers to a top three record in the NBA and the best record in the weak Eastern Conference. A lot of the team's early cohesion will depend on coaching and I do not really know what to expect of the Cav's coach, however, I expect the NBA's best player to lead the Cavs back into relevance and even dominance at times, considering that this will be by far the best supporting cast that LeBron has ever had in Cleveland. 57-25 #1

Detroit Pistons

When your starting PG is a player
who attempts nearly 13 shots a game
and makes only 42% of them, you
may want to implement a new strategy.

The Pistons have an interesting roster mostly filled with players who cannot shoot the ball well beyond 18 feet. Sadly the Pistons do not seem to realize that the NBA actually has this weird line thing about two dozen feet away from the hoop that makes a sort of semi-circle around the hoop, and amazingly if a player makes a shot while shooting behind the line then it is scored as if they made a normal bucket plus half another normal bucket. Someone should probably tell the Pistons this information.. 33-49 #12 

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks' management did a great job of dumping all of their players and trading for great players who are stuck on deep teams' rosters like Kosta Koufos. Wait..? That didn't happen? I suppose that incompetence breeds further incompetence. Other than possibly Sanders, Mayo, and Wolters this roster is filled with backups. The roster is especially full of backups who like to shoot high quantities of low quality shots, which is of course always a formula for success. Always. Technically the Bucks should have some regression to the mean, but I just don't see it happening with their roster, even considering that the Bucks get to play in the crummy Eastern Conference. 16-66 #15

Southeast

Miami Heat

The Heat have an interesting roster. Losing the best player in basketball will be a huge loss, but I still think that the Heat have an EC playoff-caliber roster. 44-38 #7

Washington Wizards

As long as players like John Wall do not suffer from injuries longer than half the season, then I think that the Wizards will be in contention for a top 4 playoff seed. 44-38 #6

Charlotte Hornets

So, the Bobcats think that pairing players such as Al Jefferson, Gary Neal, and Lance Stephenson is a good idea? Alrighty then. Stephenson has some upside potential, and the Hornets sort of stole him, but he's not a player to build around as your locker room leader. 37-45 #10

Atlanta Hawks

Sefolosha is a nice piece for the Hawks and I think he is a decent player. If the Hawks would be in the WC, then they would only have around a 20% chance of making the playoffs, but as it is they probably have slightly above even odds of making it. 41-41 #8

Orlando Magic

The Magic added some leadership with a few veteran players, but are not really an appreciably better team from last year, except for getting another year of experience for their younger players. 22-60 #14

Western Conference

Northwest

Oklahoma City Thunder

Anthony Morrow is a decent pickup, but losing Sefolosha to the Hawks and Durant to a half-dozen weeks or so injury will hurt the Thunder. It will be interesting to see just how good the Thunder are without KD and with a Russell led team. Let the fun begin. 50-32 #6

Portland Trail Blazers

Portland may have had the least player movement in the offseason, which I view in this case as partially a bad thing, but the Trail Blazers should still be decent. 49-33 #7

Minnesota Timberwolves

Losing K-Love is a big loss for the T-Wolves, but they still have a very competent team. Dieng should show some improvement. 38-44 #10

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets improved a little bit in the offseason. 40-42 #9

Utah Jazz

The Jazz managed to replace poor players with other poor players. Meanwhile, Jeremy Evans will likely continue to languish on the bench this season. Such a great job by management. 29-53 #15

Pacific

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers should have an improved team this season as compared to last season, which is slightly scary. There may happen to be a regular season Western Conference champion that will not reside in San Antonio this season. 58-23 #1

Golden State Warriors

While the Warriors have a good coach, I think that their old coach happened to be better.. Good old politics. Despite Curry's continued excellence, I expect the Warriors to have some struggles, some of which problems due to injuries. 45-37 #8

Phoenix Suns

Will the Suns' success carry over to this season? No, I expect that last season was a one year aberration. 39-43 #11

Sacramento Kings

When will the Kings be able to make the transition to playoff-caliber team? Answer: When they move to the East Coast. Jokes aside, the Kings will likely be struggling in the Western Conference once again this season. 31-51 #14

Los Angeles Lakers

I think that Jeremy Lin is an above average player... After that the roster for the Lakers gets fairly weak. Other than Lin I fail to see where a decent amount of quality attempts will come from. Possibly Kobe Bryant will see the error of his ways and stop firing off highly contested long attempts? Or not. 32-50 #13

Southwest

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs surely cannot be as good this season as they were last season, right? Riiight. Considering that the Spurs were 46-9 when Kawhi Leonard was healthy, I kind of doubt that they will take a major step back. Very little offseason movement for the Spurs, but in this case I think that is certainly a fine decision. 58-23 #2

Houston Rockets

The Rockets kind of had a horrible offseason. They lost Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik, and Chandler Parsons, while only really picking up Jason Terry. A small step back for the Rockets, despite having the fearsome threesome of Beverly, Harden, and Howard. 51-31 #4

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies may actually happen to be the team that I am most excited to watch this season. The main focal points for me to watch are what Coach Joerger lines up for the Grizzlies and to see Koufos play some decent minutes. 52-30 #3

Dallas Mavericks

Parsons makes nearly twice the amount of money that Nowitzki makes.. That totally makes sense. I am a much bigger fan of Parsons than most people are, however, I don't know if he will be worth the 14 million dollar salary the Mavericks will be paying him this season. Still though, he should provide their team with some good minutes. 51-31 #5

New Orleans Hornets

I think that Omer Asik is better than most people give him credit for, possibly this will be the year that the Pelicans finally hit the next level. 37-45 #12

Spread Picks Under: Knicks under 41, Hornets under 45, Pelicans under 43, Thunder under 57 
Spread Picks Over: Celtics over 26.5, Pacers over 33, Timberwolves over 26

Overall Eastern Conference Record: 570-660
Overall Western Conference Record: 660-570

MLB Review 2014

AL East (Predicted +20) actual result 6, overall miss average +/- per team in division 10 
The Orioles were not a fluky team this season and put up the fourth best run differential in baseball.  The Yankees and Blue Jays both had somewhat weak rotations.  The Rays decided that now was a good time to actually not overachieve for the first season in quite awhile.  Meanwhile the Red Sox fell back from the heights of the WS to the depths of the AL East.

AL Central (-1) 2, 2.6
Once again I had fairly accurate predictions for the AL Central.  The Royals and Tigers both battled for the division crown, while the Indians, White Sox, and Twins all aligned themselves behind the front-runners.





















AL West (-16) 5, 11.3 
The Angels finally decided to put everything together because.. Statistics?  The Athletics and Mariners each had very decent seasons.  The Astros managed to not lose 100 games, so that was slightly impressive.  Finally, the Rangers had a disastrous season and weren't too far from losing 100 games.

NL East (-17) -1, 7.6
Washington ran away from their crummy division.  While the Braves, Phillies, Mets, and Marlins were all bogged down in varying levels of mediocrity.



















NL Central (6) 4, 6.4
St. Louis and Pittsburgh remained the class of the NL Central.  Milwaukee and Cincinnati had mediocre seasons, and the Cubs remained one of the worst teams in MLB.

NL West (8) -16, 9.6
The Dodgers' high payroll came through again with the division title.  San Francisco managed a solid season, while the Padres, Rockies, and Diamondbacks all struggled.

Average miss in the AL was 7.97 games, NL 7.87, and overall in MLB 7.92.

NFL Line Picks for 2014

NFL Picks for Week 1

My biggest line miss for week 1 was saying Detroit was a 6.5 point favorite against the Giants (Instead of the 4 point favorite that Vegas says they are), otherwise I was within 2 points for each game, and generally just a half point or full point off.

I'll take four underdogs (Each of them to win outright, as well, technically, but I'll just take the points), GB +5.5 (The next time GB is going to be giving 5.5 points.. Is not going to be in this season, that's basically a certainty), Cleveland +6.5 (This is a horrible line, I had it at +5 and I thought I was pushing it), Oakland +4.5 (Better team, but they stink on the East Coast, so this is probably going to end poorly, especially since the starting QB for the Raiders is still unrevealed for Sunday.), Tennessee +4.5 (Better team, but they are on the road in a tough environment, likely a bad play), and three favorites, NE -4.5 (Bad number to lay, but NE is far superior to the Dolphins.. And the other two teams in their division.), Denver -7 (Laying a TD is awful, but there is no way will the Colts be taking this game and it should be a blowout victory for the Broncos.), and Detroit -4 (Laying 4 here is also a bad idea, but it's a bad line, and I am high on Detroit while low on the Giants so I should also be getting some value there.).

Seven of sixteen games in play, obviously a fairly high percentage, at least for picking NFL spreads. Two or three games are probably technically bad plays, but I'm irrationally confident due to this being the first week there are real NFL games.

Results of Picks: GB ended up looking fairly bad, I don't think the process was all that bad, but it would have been better to stay away.  Cleveland had some serious struggles, but, overall, they probably should have won their game and ended up semi-easily covering their line.  If Oakland had decent QB play they probably would have won, this should have been a definite stay away.  Tennessee fairly clearly showed that they were the superior team, as expected, overall though it's hard to tell if this should have been a stay away as well.  I'm not certain what difficulties the Patriots were having, but they ended up playing quite poorly.  Semi-consequentially, a stay away may have been called for.. But, it's close.  Denver should have managed to cover easily, but they took their foot off the gas pedal, so the Colts nearly managed to take the spread.  The Lions effectively proved that they are a far superior team to the Giants.

Week 1 Record: 3-3-1

Overall Record: 3-3-1 (.50)

Picks for Week 2

Underdog picks: Falcons +5.5 (This is a joke.)  Browns +6.5 (Almost a touchdown in bonus points in a fairly evenly matched game?  I'll take it.)  Lions +2.5 (I get points to have the far superior team?  Horrible line.)  Eagles +2.5 (Once again I get the better team and a couple points.  Somewhat poor line.)

Favorite pick: Patriots -3.5 (Vikings are nowhere close to as good as they played last week, while the Patriots are going to play angry.)

Game line differential: Denver is actually a 13 point favorite, not 10 like I said.  Seattle by 5.5, not 3.5.  Gigantic difference: NO by 6, not 1 (Do people still not see that Browns are actually a competent football team?).  Washington by 6, not 3.5.

Overall, these five picks are much better than last week's selections, partially because I'm taking more underdogs and because a few of the lines are even poorer than week one.

Results of Picks: So apparently it wasn't a joke that the Falcons were getting 5.5?  Maybe the Falcons just leave their offense at home or something..  I still think I made the right pick though.  The Browns/Saints game was indeed a very evenly matched game, the Saints were the slightly better team, but the Browns got the breaks and were certainly the right side.  The Browns are a competent team?  No way.  The Lions/Panthers game was rather odd, the Lions leave their offense at home as well apparently, meanwhile the Panthers are somehow 2-0.  Finally playing the better team getting points on the road was the right pick.. The Eagles at least came through with a late rally.  On the favorites side of things, the Patriots dominated the AP-less Vikings.  

Possibly I should just be picking the biggest line differentials that I have with Vegas or something, because the four value picks that I saw versus Vegas all won somewhat convincingly, except for the Broncos' game which was just a solid win.  It was another semi-ugly week for me, especially considering that I'm doing pretty well in games that I'm not picking officially... So yeah, possibly I'll be able to turn this around.

Week 2 Record: 3-2

Overall Record: 6-5-1 (.55)

Picks for Week 3

Underdog picks: Chargers +2.5 (Here I try the better team getting points on the road strategy once again..)  Browns +1.5 (This is a decent line, I just think that the breaks will continue to go the Browns' way this week) Raiders +14.5 (I don't like picking this.. But I practically have to on principle, and because I slightly think that it is the right play since the Patriots aren't actually extremely good) KC +4.5 (I think I'll just call better team getting points on the road: BTPR) Steelers +3.5 (I don't really like the Steelers, but I don't understand how the Panthers could start 3-0, this will probably end up being correct, however it will also probably be a bad play regardless.) Bears +2.5 (BTPR, the Jests are the favorites?  Really?)

Favorite pick: Cowboys -.5 (The Cowboys may not be a good team... But they're playing the Rams) 49ers -2.5 (I lay less than a FG to take the 49ers on the road against some QB such as Carson Palmer or Drew Stanton?  Alrighty then.)  

I made eight picks this week.. I should really prune that down, but once again I am somewhat confident in a fair number of these picks.  (I forgot to say which games had the greatest line differentials, whoops.) Also I wanted to mention last year's SB matchup, the Seahawks and Broncos.  I had the game at Seahawks -5.5 while Vegas has it at Seahawks -5. I think the Broncos are in a very tough spot since they just played the Chiefs in a demoralizing way last weekend while the Seahawks are coming off a double digit loss for the first time in an extremely long time, in terms of the NFL time-frame anyways, thus regression is very likely to kick in, but I would still lean towards a Broncos play since I think the teams are closer to evenly matched this year and therefore the Broncos are getting a point or two fewer than they should.

Results of Picks: The Chargers made the BTPR strategy appear fairly decent in their matchup.  The Browns' line was indeed very decent, I just happened to be on the wrong side by half a point.  The Raiders laughed themselves to nearly upsetting the Patriots.  Yeah, the Patriots are a great team.  KC kept the BTPR strategy rolling with a fairly convincing win.  The Steelers finally did to the Panthers what most teams should do and came away with the convincing victory.  The Bears managed to pull off the trifecta of BTPR victories with their semi-solid win against the Jests.  Meanwhile the Cowboys nearly destroyed themselves in the first half against the Rams, but they just managed to come back and grab the victory.  Finally, the 49ers allowed Drew Stanton and the (somehow) 3-0 Cardinals to semi-dominate them in most phases of the game.
It was actually my worst week of picks overall, but I managed to have my best week in narrowed down selections.

Week 3 Record: 6-2

Overall Record: 12-7-1 (.63)

Picks for Week 4

Underdog Picks: Dallas +3 (NO isn't a great road team, just in case anyone hasn't noticed..), Tennessee +7.5 (This line is way too high, the Titans aren't getting enough respect.  Plus I would consider this a BTPR pick.)

Favorite Picks: Green Bay -1.5 (The Bears are coming off a short week while the Packers are coming off a physical tough loss..  Conflicting signals, but I think A-Rodgers leads a ho-hum 30 point offense this week.) Atlanta -3 (This is only a good pick if Atlanta actually packs an offense this game..) Detroit -1.5 (I am losing a bit of value with this pick, but I'll take the Lions to beat the TO prone Jests.) 

Game Line Differentials: Tennessee at +7 instead of +4.5 like I said.  Miami -4, +/-0.  NO -3, +1.  This week I finally did not see too many decent value or good picks to be had.

Results of Picks: Dallas comfortably defeated the Saints.  The Saints are a poor road team?  No way.  However, I should probably learn the same thing for the Falcons..  The Titans lost handily, but I did not know that the Titans would be without Locker.
The Packers gave up a lot of yards, but otherwise had a great day against the Bears.  (And the Pack-Attack was indeed back on track) The Falcons offense was available on Sunday, but the defense was not..  I think I should stop picking the Falcons on the road.  The Lions semi-easily defeated the Jets and semi-proved that they are clearly the better team.

I didn't know that Locker would be out for Tennessee so I get a pass on that.  The Dolphins dominated the Raiders, I don't think that I'll trust the Raiders anymore in my lines.  The Saints were giving three points on the road based on what exactly?

I don't understand what the management of various teams thinks sometimes.. Let's throw out Charlie Whitehurst.. Since having him as our starting quarterback will help us...  How exactly? Or starting Kyle Orton.. That will totally give us the best chance to win.. Right, because it's not like you couldn't pick up Tim Tebow, Vince Young, or trade for Colt McCoy..  But, I suppose that decisions like that are why some franchises are simply mired in mediocrity.

GL Differential Record in Previous Weeks: 4-0 (I only counted the four differences that I had in week 2 since I was somewhat official about those, from now on I'll try to remember to put up my GL differentials as well. The main criterion for the picks is that my lines have to differentiate from Vegas by at least 2.5 points.)

GL Week 4 Record: 1-2 

GL Overall Record: 5-2

Week 4 Record: 3-2 (Another semi-disappointing week, but in my two losses the Titans didn't have Locker and the Falcons didn't pack a defense on the road, while the other three games were either comfortable wins or blowouts.)

Overall Record: 15-9-1 (.63)

Picks for Week 5

Underdog Picks: Chicago BTPR +3. I'll take Atlanta one last time.. +4.5 BTPR. Baltimore +3.5 BTPR. Washington +7.5 (BTPR? No wait, that certainly is not the case here. But, this is indeed a pick since it's hard to lay more than a TD at home, unless your team name is like Jacksonville or something, and Washington happens to have a mediocre team, not the poor one that just played the Giants.)

Favorite Picks: GB -9.5, (It is a horrible play to lay 9.5, but I went ahead and made the pick the day of the game due to the Packers not facing Bridgewater.)

GL Differentials: GB at -9.5, -6 (Despite this being in GB, this line is still inflated.). Detroit -7.5, -5 (Detroit has been really good at home in their two home games, so this makes sense.). Jacksonville +6.5, +4 (I tend to make lines curve too much towards pick-em, so this line is probably about right.). Washington +7.5, +4. (I forgot that Seattle had a BYE in week 4, but still, this line should be closer to a field goal than a touchdown.) (I think it's the same for Vegas, but I had a grand total of two home underdogs for week 5.)

Results of Picks: The Bears committed four turnovers and managed to lose a two touchdown lead against the Panthers.  Somehow Atlanta managed to lose once again, this time failing to bring their offense on the road.  Baltimore couldn't even manage to salvage my picks and fell as well, by a touchdown, to the Colts.  Washington was burned by a late unnecessary FG.  Finally, the Packers pummeled the Vikings in my lone win of the week.

GL Week 5 Record: 1-3 (I passed on the GB game because of Bridgewater being out.)

GL Overall Record: 6-5 (55%)

Week 5 Record: 1-4

Overall Record: 16-13-1 (55%)


I had quite a bit of a lull in picks since I was pretty busy and stuff, and while my picks technically did pretty well, since I was not officially picking I will not include them but just pick things up in week 11.

Picks for Week 11

Underdog Picks:Bills +6 (Similar team playing on the road), Lions +1.5 (BTPR), Patriots +2.5

Favorite Picks: No lines were very intriguing for favorites this week.
GL Differentials: Rams +9.5, not +5.5. 49ers -4.5, not -1.5.  Cardinals -2, not -5 (I forgot about Palmer being out, but still, there is such a lack of respect for the Cardinals.)  Titans +6, not +2.

Results of Picks: 


GL Week 11 Record: 
GL Overall Record: 

Week 11 Record: 

Overall Record: