NBA Playoffs Review 2014

The NBA Playoffs

First Round

Eastern Conference

1 Pacers vs 8 Hawks

I predicted Pacers in 4 while the actual result was Pacers in 7.

The Hawks were an underrated team by most people, including myself, but still the Pacers certainly underperformed in this round.  

4 Bulls vs 5 Wizards

Predicted result of Wizards in 6, actual result was Wizards in 5.

Every once in a while coaching doesn't matter much in the NBA..  Or at least apparently.  This series was a little odd, the result is fairly expected, but the Bulls had even greater trouble scoring than I thought that they would have.

3 Raptors vs 6 Nets

Predicted Raptors in 5, actual result was Nets in 7.

It was a slight mistake to take the Raptors in 5, because I should have factored playoff experience more heavily into the analysis.  However, I would still say that the Raptors are, somewhat comfortably, a better team than the Nets.

2 Heat vs 7 Bobcats

Predicted Heat in 4, actual result was Heat in 4.

The Heat treated the Bobcats as they should and promptly dispatched the worst team in the playoffs by double digits in a four game demolition.  Okay, it was not actually too much of a demolition, but the Heat were never in any sort of danger in the series.

Western Conference 

1 Spurs vs 8 Mavericks

Predicted Spurs in 5, actual result was Spurs in 7.  

I am not entirely certain as to why the Mavericks' series ended up being the toughest series for the Spurs in the playoffs.  Dallas is a quality team, but they are not a top 5 type team.  Due to how well the Spurs and Mavs know each other I possibly should have added an extra game to the series, other than that however, I still think that the series should have been over much sooner.

4 Rockets vs 5 Trail Blazers

Predicted Rockets in 6, actual result was Trail Blazers in 6.

The combination of losing two OT games and one game by a point led to the Rockets' demise.   I have now incorrectly predicted two series, yet, other than changing a game or two for a couple of series, I would still say that I picked the better team in each series.  This series and the OKC vs Memphis series were the only first round series that I was able to watch very much of the games.  I thought that Houston took a greater portion of Q shots, while the Trail Blazers hit an unreliably high number of Q and NQ three point attempts.  

One of the major problems for the Rockets in the series was Harden's defense.. Or lack thereof.  If the Rockets are going to be a legitimate championship contending team, then Harden will have to improve his defense greatly, at least to the point of only being a liability on defense, rather than being a traitor.  (Slight exaggeration, obviously, but I just mean that in the context of where his defense is compared to the average NBA player)  I have not charted enough Rockets' games to know in what range Harden's defense should actually be placed, but , in my limited charting of him, his defense has been comparable to D-Wade.  

3 Clippers vs 6 Warriors

Predicted Clippers in 5, actual result was Clippers in 7.

For the second year in a row I underestimated the role that Stephen Curry would play on his team.  Part of the reason why I missed on the series is because the Warriors relied more heavily on Curry than they did in the regular season, as they should, and because I may have overestimated the leetness of the Clippers.  Even if the Clippers may have the ability to toss up 140 against some teams, as they nearly did against the Warriors, their defense can be somewhat lacking, and there still seems to be one piece which does not quite fit.

2 Thunder vs 7 Grizzlies

Predicted Thunder in 5, actual result was Thunder in 7.

The Grizzlies are a very good seven seed, they probably would have won the Eastern Conference.  The three games that were decided handily were all won by the Thunder, while the Grizzlies won three of the four games that went into OT.  So once again the Grizzlies received an inordinate amount of breaks in the series against the Thunder.  While Fisher had slightly fewer minutes this playoff series, as opposed to last year's series against the Grizzlies, Perkins, in general, continued to be on the floor for far too many minutes.

By the end of the series Tayshaun Prince (Finally!) played himself out of the starting role, but even that move was not enough to lead the Grizzlies to a series victory.  This series would actually be the one that I would be most likely to peg as wrong, in terms of who the victor of the series should be anyways.  

While KD struggled in the series, he still
managed to do things such as this.

In general, other than KD and Ibaka, the Thunder have a very unreliable team.  (They have a team full of Mr. Unreliables then..? No, that's not quite the point I'm trying to make.)  As currently constructed the Thunder do not have a legitimate team, but are instead simply propped up by Kevin Durant's greatness.  Speaking of whom, KD struggled a great deal in the series, again.  Durant played far too many minutes in the series, again.  I kind of understand the benching of Sefolosha, but not entirely..  Something which I know that Coach Brooks should have done for the series is play Collison many more minutes, again.  

The Thunder won the series because of Russell Westbrook! I'm not going to bother legitimizing this conclusion by going into depth about how misguided this statement is, I think that I have dissected and criticized Westbrook's play enough in previous posts, I will however say this in response: 38%.  (Thirty-eight percent was the percentage of shots that Westbrook hit in the Grizzlies' series.)  [And Westbrook attempted an average of 24 shots per game in the series, ugh.]

For the six main problems that I outlined for the Thunder last season, only one of the problems was improved, while one problem was somewhat irrelevant, and the other four problems were all repeated.  The only problem that improved was something that could only be marginally impacted by coaching, Serge Ibaka hitting shots outside of 8 feet.  In many ways, despite having the better team by a fair margin, the Thunder were a bit fortunate to win the series.  

Second Round

EC

1 Pacers vs 5 Wizards

Predicted Pacers in 5 before the playoffs, Pacers in 5 during the playoffs in the Wages of Wins playoff contest (I will continue to add my in-playoff predictions), and the actual result was Pacers in 6.

The Pacers are not a very good team relative to the Western Conference, but when compared to the rest of the Eastern Conference the Pacers are still a very decent team.  I thought that the media and advanced stats crowd made too big of a deal of the Pacer's struggles in the last half of the season and the Pacer's struggles in the playoffs.  The last time that I checked the Pacers had the second most successful season in the Eastern Conference, only trailing the Heat.  (Depending on how your defining successful anyways.. I am basically just saying it as if it would be devoid of expectations about where teams should actually finish.  Which is a somewhat foolish way to view things, but I'm just doing it to add a little perspective to the blowup the Pacers situation.)

2 Heat vs 5 Raptors

Predicted Heat in 5, Heat in 5, result was Heat in 6.  

The Heat lost a little bit of a break when they had to face the Nets instead of the Raptors.  If the Heat had played the Raptors then they could have taken them a little less seriously because of the Raptors' lack of playoff experience and played their starters fewer minutes.  But, since the Heat played the Nets they had to take them a little more seriously and close out the series in a comfortable 5.

WC

1 Spurs vs 5 Trail Blazers

Predicted Rockets in 6 over Spurs, I believe that I said Spurs would win in 5 over the Trail Blazers, the actual result was Spurs in 5. 

The Trail Blazer series provided the Spurs with ample time to improve their passing for future series with the poor defense played by the Trail Blazers.  While they would have a couple of minor hiccups, this is where the Spurs began their roll through the playoffs.

2 Thunder vs 3 Clippers

Predicted Clippers in six, Clippers in six, actual result was Thunder in 6.

The point differential was virtually even in the series, I only saw a very small portion of the series so I am still uncertain as to which team should have actually been picked to win.  This is the lone series where I would say that Westbrook was not a liability to the Thunder.  I am uncertain as to whether or not this is because CP3 is a bad defender or if it is just because the series was an aberration of Westbrook's typical play.

Conference Finals

EC

1 Indiana vs 2 Miami

Predicted Pacers in 7, Pacers in 7, actual result was Heat in 6.

Except for the game six annihilation by the Heat, the series was quite competitive overall.  Game six was the lone game of the series that I was able to catch in its entirety.  The Heat offense was slightly below their average level, while the Pacer's offense was actually about average.  The problem for the Pacers was that their defense performed at one of the worst levels I have ever charted.  

I find it funny sometimes how people say that teams should go 'smaller' to match another team's speed.   The last time I checked, height actually does tend to provide players with an advantage on the basketball court. Whether it is rebounding, passing, or shooting, etc., one player being an extra couple inches taller than another player can be quite beneficial to that taller player.  

Small ball lineups can be good changeups, but in general they are quite irrelevant.  Small lineups should only be used if they are providing your team with the best team to win.  'Small' lineups can sometimes allow teams the opportunity to play their five best players on the court at the same time, in cases such as this, then yes, small lineups should be used.  However, lineups changes should generally not be made in direct response to a move by opponents to go 'small' or 'big.' (As a slight caveat to that, I would say that lineup changes can and occasionally should be made in response to opposing individual players on the court.) In general, a coach should be playing the best players on the team regardless of height or weight. 

In this series, Hibbert appeared to be one of the main players who was accountable for the bad defense by the Pacers (Conclusion based on only a small amount of data).  There were claims by some that the Pacers should have gone with smaller lineups at times to matchup better with the Heat, I would say that this is quite misguided.  The Pacers indeed should have gone smaller in a larger portion of the minutes than they did, however this is because Hibbert was struggling so much, and not because of a need to match the Heat in what players they have on the court.

WC

1 Spurs vs 2 Thunder
Predicted Rockets over Clippers in 6, Thunder in 6, actual result was Spurs in 6.
Ibaka is an important piece for the Thunder, partially because they lack other pieces.. The Thunder not having Ibaka available for the first two games of the series allowed the Spurs to have an easier path to two victories and give their starters greater rest, which in turn led to a win in game six.  I didn't catch very much of this series, as a result I will not bother attempting to assign blame to the Thunder failing in the postseason once again.

I will go ahead and post my NBA Finals thoughts in another post, since it is more than sufficient for another post.  Partially because I just want to get it over with, I will finish out my prediction grades for the playoffs in this post.

Prediction Grades

First Round: EC grade, C. WC, D+.

Second Round: EC, B+.  WC, D.

Conference Finals: EC, C-, WC, D.
Overall EC, C+.  Overall WC, D.

Finals: D-.
Overall grade: D+.  
Disappointing grades, pretty much all around. While I did try to force too many upsets, I still think that the vast majority of my picks were choices that were made correctly and would still be the correct pick the plurality of the time.  
Thanks for reading.