Somehow it appears that I never managed to post my 2013 NFL review, so even though it happens to be 2015, I suppose that I should move it out of my drafts and into an actual post. Thanks for reading.
AFC
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| Standings courtesy of ESPN. |
AFC
| AFC | Wins | Losses | ||
| 12 | 4 | Brady and Belichick provide victories in clutch situations. | ||
| 5 | 11 | The Jets impressively managed .500. | ||
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4 | 12 | No quarterback, then no consistency. | |
| Miami | 4 | 12 | Dolphins overachieve. | |
| Pittsburgh | 11 | 5 | Steelers struggle at stopping opponents. | |
| Baltimore | 8 | 8 | Ravens rushing attack falls apart. | |
| Cincinnati | 6 | 10 | The Bengals D was dominant. | |
| Cleveland | 5 | 11 | Usually competitive, but not enough in the end. |
Unimportant random thoughts and statistics on various teams:
The Jets averaged nearly .4 points 'less' than their opponents per drive. While their point differential put them at a 5.4 win team. The Bengals averaged close to 5 yards more per average drive and .5 points. Colts, 9.4 win team. Despite allowing .3 yards more per play, the Colts scored .25 points more per drive. The Jaguars allowed a whopping extra yard per play and nearly an extra point per drive for opponents.
The Texans averaged about the same net yards per play as opponents and more yards per drive, but they scored .62 less per drive than opponents.. Having the 32nd best net TO ratio in the NFL will do that to you. On the year the Texans finished with -20 net TOs.The Ravens averaged 0.7 less per play than opponents.The Broncos averaged an entire point more than opponents per drive, 2.83 to 1.83. A full yard better per play and an entire 10 yards better per drive. The Chargers were out-gained each play, but they made up by having the league's best third down conversion.
The Jets averaged nearly .4 points 'less' than their opponents per drive. While their point differential put them at a 5.4 win team. The Bengals averaged close to 5 yards more per average drive and .5 points. Colts, 9.4 win team. Despite allowing .3 yards more per play, the Colts scored .25 points more per drive. The Jaguars allowed a whopping extra yard per play and nearly an extra point per drive for opponents.
The Texans averaged about the same net yards per play as opponents and more yards per drive, but they scored .62 less per drive than opponents.. Having the 32nd best net TO ratio in the NFL will do that to you. On the year the Texans finished with -20 net TOs.The Ravens averaged 0.7 less per play than opponents.The Broncos averaged an entire point more than opponents per drive, 2.83 to 1.83. A full yard better per play and an entire 10 yards better per drive. The Chargers were out-gained each play, but they made up by having the league's best third down conversion.
Whishenhunt would be a near perfect coach for the Lions. The Chiefs were actually out-gained by opponents each play by an average of .3 yards, but they made up for that difference by scoring .3 points more per drive, and by starting at their own 34 as opposed to the opponents starting at their own 23. The Cowboys average 6 yards fewer per drive than opponents. NYG 5.6 point differential. 2nd worst net TO margin in the league. Washington averaged slightly more yards and plays per drive, but gave up a semi-staggering .64 points per drive.
Lions expected win-loss record was 8.5 and 7.5. The Panthers overwhelmed opponents in most statistics. According to point differential the Seahawks were a fairly legit 13-3 team as opposed to the somewhat fraudulent Broncos. The Seahawks nearly got 6 yards and 1 point per drive. Flacco, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, finished 32nd in passer rating (73.1).
AFC EAST
The Patriots were right on despite their injuries. But, the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins were all rated much too lowly by me and consequently each finished with better records than I predicted. Off by an average of 2.25 games. C+
New England
The Patriots were a bad good team all year. Consistently they struggled with poor teams, but would generally still beat them in the end. Against good teams the Patriots would raise their level of play to around the level of their opponents and then generally pull through in the end. They had two somewhat impressive come-from-behind victories against the Saints and Broncos at home. Except when facing elite defenses they would score more than 20 points each game. Their defense is probably still very underrated, despite giving up effectively many yards as their offense produced, they held opponents to almost .4 points fewer than the Patriots offense would score each possession. Overall the defense was probably solidly in the top 10.
A below average year for Brady, but he had to deal with a dearth of weapons, at least for him anyways. Amendola was indeed able to supplement the loss of Welker somewhat effectively, but the losses of Gronkowski and Hernandez were fairly detrimental to the Patriots offense. I suppose what I said about Tebow can be forgotten, the 'haters' now seem to have the upper-hand. No team seems willing to risk the media exposure and 'risk' implementing Tebow as a starting QB.
The losses on offense didn't derail the Patriots too much, still a top 5 offense. I'm not certain why other teams didn't look into Blount, he was a good pick-up for the Pats. Brady was, impressively enough, able to lead five 4th quarter comebacks on the year and lift the Patriots from mediocrity into a quality football team. A few of the comebacks were somewhat remarkable, such as in the Saints and Broncos games. New England technically only matched my predicted record for their season, but since they did have to overcome so many injuries I will go ahead and bump their grade up to a B-.
NY Jets The Jest had a fairly decent season, considering their less than stellar quarterbacking. Their offense was one of the worst in the league. New York was a very erratic team, pulling a surprising upset one week and getting dominated the next week. I would guess that they were one of the worst 8-8 teams that have ever been, but still their record is what their record is. The Jest finished with the 7th worst point differential in the league. It's a little harder to know where to put NY's grade, again I"ll be a bit lenient and give them extra credit for their close victories, yet blowout losses, B-.
Miami It was kind of amazing how consistent both the offense and defense was for the Dolphins. Very consistently the offense would score in the mid 20s while the defense would tend to hold opponents in the mid teens to mid 20s. As such they had a bunch of one possession games. After they beat NE in week 15 the Dolphins practically had a playoff spot locked up until they failed to capitalize on beating either the Bills or Jets.
Buffalo The Bills were not quite as consistent as the Dolphins, but still managed to be a fairly consistent and have a fair number of close games. In general their defense was vaguely dominant, but their offense consistently let the team down.
AFC North
The Steelers didn't find their no-huddle offense until after their bye week, which put a great damper on them making the playoffs. The Ravens were a fairly predicable team and didn't surprise in many of their games. I passed on the Bengals and lost once again. The Browns looked lost at times, about the only partially good thing out of the season is that they got draft picks for Richardson who apparently may be a bust. +/- an average of 2.25 games again. C-
Cincinnati
The Bengals may not have played many top offenses, but their defense dominated the less than stellar competition and held every opponent to 30 points or less. I am not entirely certain what it is, but the Bengals have the ability to make their opponents look very silly at times. Cincinnati's defense was probably the second best in football. My reason behind not buying the Bengals this year was because I thought Dalton would have a step back year, instead the Bengals defense frustrated opponents and Dalton and the offense was generally able to create enough plays to win. B+
Baltimore The Raven's defense probably overachieved and did a good job of keeping the Ravens in games. Baltimore rolled for part of their second half schedule, but then crashed against the Patriots and Bengals. The Ravens had 11 one possession games.(I don't know the official numbers for this, but it seems like there were a fair number more than the average of games within one possession.) Baltimore's point differential pegged them closer to a 7-9 team. The decisions on defense did prove to be the correct ones while Flacco's anchor contract did hurt since the Ravens had a lack of wide receivers. They only needed one more victory to reach the playoffs and their record matched what I predicted, hence the Ravens get a C-.
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| The difference between winner and loser in the NFL can sometimes be the difference of a couple of centimeters. (link) |
Pittsburgh
After the Steelers had their bye week they were a decent team and more like what I expected them to look like, but before their bye week they had 4 somewhat unacceptable losses. Roethlisberger very rarely looked like he was completely comfortable. The Steel Curtain wasn't horrible, but it wasn't up to Steelers standards. The Steelers missed the playoff by centimeters. Troy Polamalu was finally healthy and did make his occasional game changing plays, such as the forced fumble against Flynn and the Packers. Whether it was a missed penalty by the refs in the Chargers-Chiefs game, a missed field goal in the same game, or the the Steeler's Antonio Brown stepping out of bounds in an important game against the could have easily made the playoffs. D+
Cleveland
I partially bought into the Browns being a competent team in the first half of the season, but in the second half they completely fell apart and while they managed to keep games close they lost to such great teams as the Jaguars, Jets, and Bears, etc. The Browns defense took a bit of a step back, right now the Browns look like an organization without a concrete plan. D+
| Houston | 11 | 5 | Terrific Texans torpedo tired division opponents, #3 seed. | |
| Tennessee | 5 | 11 | Titans can't tighten ship, get trampled. | |
| Indianapolis | 7 | 9 | Cerebral Luck can't quite come through for the Colts. | |
| Jacksonville | 3 | 13 | Jealous Jaguars act as juniors in the division. | |
| Denver | 11 | 5 | Barefooted Broncos better brawny division, #2 seed. | |
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10 | 6 | Chargers charge past challenging schedule to grab the 1st Wildcard. | |
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9 | 7 | Resurgent Raiders run to the 2nd Wildcard. | |
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8 | 8 | Competency makes Chiefs content to be competitive. |
AFC South
The Texans completely ruined this division, while the Colts remained 'lucky', and the Jags and Titans continued their relative incompetency. +/- of 4. D-
Indianapolis
I guess I should have been the one who was disturbed.. Since apparently the Colts weren't doing everything through smoke and mirrors.. The Colts were blown out a couple times by mediocre teams, but they also managed to beat a handful of top 10 teams. Indianapolis likely had the most impressive victories in the NFL. They played with fire a handful of times, such as the Raiders, Titans, Texans, but Andrew Luck was able to lead the Colts to late victories. Luck continues to improve. The Colts had a healthier point differential this season, but still should have finished closer to 10-6 or 9-7 instead of 11-5. B+
Tennessee
If the Titans would have been able to win two one possession games against the Colts, then the season could have been a lot more exciting in Titans-land. I should have pointed to the signs that pointed to the Titans being a decent team, Locker helped the Titans to be a competent team. The Titans should be an interesting team next season. B-
Jacksonville
The Jaguars were a historically bad team for the first half of the season. But, in the second half of the season they apparently flipped a switched and were able to take 4 victories from non-quality opponents, which in turn cost them the #1 draft pick. The Jags manage to lose even when they win. They were just good enough to win enough to lose the lottery crown. If I had to only give a failed management vote to one franchise in the NFL, then I believe that the Jaguars would get my vote this season. D
Houston
Apparently I should have thought more about the AFC South. Houston wasn't even close to a top 10 defense or offense. The Texans did manage to have a better point differential then the Jaguars, but that was the only team. 2nd worst point differential in the league after a year in which they were one of the best teams in the AFC. Houston lost 10 of their 12 one possession games, so certainly unsustainable, but, at the same time, disturbingly poor clutch power. F-
AFC West
2.75 differential C
Denver
Somehow the best scoring NFL team ever seems a bit underrated.. Odd. The Broncos destroyed over half of their opponents, which is unreal in today's NFL. The Broncos finished with 606 points, the next closest team? The Bears, with 445 points scored. The bust potential didn't happen with the Broncos. Julius Thomas was a big boon for Denver. Even with setting so many records in the regular season, this season will be viewed by-in-large by what happens with the Broncos and Manning in the playoffs. A+
Kansas City
It's amazing what competency at QB and greatness at HC will do for teams.. KC may not have any extremely impressive victories, but you can only play the schedule that is placed in front of you. Decent season for the Chiefs. Offense managed games well, while the defense generally shut-down opponents.
San Diego
Except for victories over the Jaguars and Giants (possibly the Colts as well), the Chargers had no game that couldn't have easily gone to the other team. The Chargers liked to play to the level of their opponent. Rivers was back to his more normal elite self and the Chargers was able to do just enough to help the Chargers to the playoffs. Some of the best coaches in the league were just enough to help the Chargers to the playoffs. The Chargers were one of the teams this year that the media and populace declared as 'eliminated' too early. I fail to see why some outlets can continue to think that teams are out, when a third of the season is yet to be played. The chiefs improved their net turnovers by 42 from last season.
Oakland
While I'll count my breakout guess for Raiders as an incorrect pick, I don't think that I was very wrong on the Raiders, if they had only been able to hold Luck and the Colts in Week 1, then I think the entire season could have been different. But, as it happened, they weren't able to hold him and as a result losses and poor coaching decisions snowballed the season into a 4-12 season. The Raiders had about 10 games that could have easily gone to either team, but they were only 2-8 in those games. The defense was horrible at times, such as allowing Foles to score 7 touchdowns, but overall, didn't actually have a half-bad season. The Raiders just needed one more game-changing play from the offense each game and the season could have been vastly different.
1. Incorrect. The losing culture was not shaken.
2. Correct. They had their struggles, but I think that the defense improved.
3. Neither. The OL struggled, but it had a fair amount of competency at times.
4. Mostly incorrect. The receiving corps was certainly lacking, but for what was there it wasn't horrible. The rushing attack with McFadden usually struggled, but it improved when Jennings got the nod.
5 and 6. Both were partially correct. This was based mostly on how Flynn would play and he didn't play too poorly, considering that he was largely set up to fail.
NFC
| Philadelphia | 10 | 6 | Foles proved to be a somewhat needed revelation for Philly. | |
| 10 | 6 | While the Cowboys fell short, it largely was not because of Romo. | |
| 8 | 8 | Giants provide middling competition. | |
| 7 | 9 | Hard schedule aside, the Redskins never were good enough to make the playoffs | |
| 12 | 4 | One incomplete pass away from missing the playoffs | |
| Detroit | 8 | 8 | The Lions were close, but finally choked their chances away. | |
| Chicago | 7 | 9 | Improved passing attack thanks to Jeffry. | |
| Minnesota | 5 | 11 | Still no plan for the Vikings. |
NFC EAST
1.75 differential A-
Philadelphia (Sorry that there is so much space between the team name and the text following the team, I have tried to correct the problem, but it keeps creating further spacing problems at other points in the post so I will just leave it as it is.)
In week 8 Philly fell to 3-5 and Kelly and the Eagles were looked at as disappointments with no chance at the playoffs other than possibly due to the division's ineptitude. But, the real reason behind those struggles was the instability at QB. After Foles was inserted fully, by the end of the season, after winning 7 of 8, the Eagles and their high-flying offense were one of the best sights in the league. The Eagles played a lot of mediocre teams, and managed a respectable 10-6 record. Third highest QB rating combined with the best TD to INT ratio and the most yards per completion with a yard to spare.
NY Giants
The Giants did indeed hang around .500, but they decided to flip the script this season and finish 7-9 this year instead of 9-7. New York was obliterated by a few teams this season and never seemed to be able to get their usual swagger going.
Dallas
The Cowboy's defense was fairly erratic, in general it was slightly poor. The Cowboys impressively, or not so impressively, had 5 losses decided by a total of only 8 points. The Cowboys are the definition of mediocrity over the last decade and the last couple season. C-
Washington
The tough schedule all-but doomed Washington from making the playoffs. While they did have a fair amount of close games, they also had a few blowout losses. At 3-13, a HC firing, and RG3 suffering another injury, this season was certainly a disappointment for Washington. F
NFC North
It wasn't quite as impressive as I like my most impressive division to be, but the NFC North was my most impressive division with an average miss of 1.5 games. A-
Green Bay
The Packer's defense didn't do a great job this season, but they also weren't awful. The defense usually did enough to keep the Packers in the game. Rodger's injury endangered the Packer's playoff chances, but a Rodger's bomb ended up saving the season. The injuries to key Packers personal leave the Packer's season as average. C
Detroit
The Lions improved, but not enough to reach the playoffs. The Lions had a semi impressive ability to lose close games. They finished with a positive point differential, yet finished the year with a 7-9 record.
Chicago
Alshon Jeffery was a great wide receiver on the other side of Marshall. McCown and Cutler helped to lead the Bears to one of the top offenses in the NFL. The Bears were a bit erratic, but overall they were still a decent team. Only a half-step by Peppers away from making the playoffs. C+
Minnesota
The Vikings suffered a fair number of bad losses and they were a team without a real plan for the season, but other than such minor problems as that they had a good season.. Well, at least the 'no playoffs' distinction came through for a previous playoff team. Spinning QB wheels for the sake of spinning QB wheels is not a good route to pursue.. Yet the Vikings continue to do it. D+
| Falcons | 11 | 5 | The Falcons didn't fly anywhere after Julio was injured. |
| Buccaneers | 10 | 6 | Bucs couldn't overcome sickeness and obstacles. |
| Saints | 10 | 6 | The Saints did improve thanks to Coach Peyton. |
| Panthers | 6 | 10 | The Panthers finally managed to win close games. |
| 49er's | 11 | 5 | Despite their 12 victories, the 49ers will be on the road to begin the playoffs. |
| Seahawks | 10 | 6 | Will the Seahawks finish in New York? Close to unbeatable at home. |
| Rams | 9 | 7 | The Rams injuries hampered their season |
| Cardinals | 3 | 13 | The Cardinals defense played impressively. |
NFC South
So.. What happened to the Falcons? This division was an absolute disaster in terms of predictions. The differential for +/- was a somewhat unthinkable 5. F-
New Orleans
The Saints were a slightly below average team on the road, but a dominating team at home. Drew Brees and his impressive passes provided the Saints with a powerful offense.
Carolina
After their 1-3 start the Panthers rattled off 11 victories over 12 games. The defense was absolutely dominating most of the season. Newton didn't improve very much this season, but now suddenly he will be viewed as a much better quarterback. The Falcons and Buccanneers provided an opening in the division, and the Panthers took advantage of it.
Atlanta
The Falcons suffered a ton of one-play away losses. Injuries demolished the Falcon's offensive roster and as a result they were unable to even be .500. Somehow Ryan ended up with 651 passing attempts on the year. No rushing attack hurt the offense dramatically. While the Falcons did have a lot of a close losses, they also had a four week string of relative blowout losses.
Tampa Bay
I wonder how the season could have changed if the Buccaneers had scored an extra 4 points in each of their first four games, and if they wouldn't have had so much sickness in the lock room. But, the combination of those plus Freeman's accuracy issues snowballed the Buc's season into being a bad one.
NFC West
The Cardinals were a major miss in an otherwise fairly accurate division. 3.25 D+
Seattle
In my opinion Seattle was the most dominant team in the NFL. So much for regression for the Seahawks. Other than an Andrew Luck explosion, the Seahawks never gave up more than 24 points. Twenty-four. The Seahawks defense is devastatingly good.
San Francisco
The 49ers were a bit of a weird team with a lot of mini streaks, but overall they still were a decent team. San Fran had a small step-back from last year. Buying into the 49ers before the season began was certainly the right decision, now I only likely need to do the same thing for teams such as the Bengals and Colts.
St. Louis
Despite suffering injuries to key players, such as Sam Bradford, the Rams finished with a fairly decent record, considering that they're in the NFC West, of 7-9.
Arizona
I did not fully buy into the Cardinals being a good team until around two-thirds of the season was over with. I did indeed have the Cardinals with way too few victories. My fake vote for coach of the year would go to Coach Bruce Arians.
My overall differential for the NFL was a ridiculously bad 2.84. Relative percentage at an unremarkable 82.25%.
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